Summary for November 16th, 2010:
1-0 +$200
1-0 +$200
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7-day STREAK: 10-6 +$1340
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Very curious to see what the line will be for the LA Kings tomorrow. I'll likely do a write-up and make a play on the Kings -0.5 RT tomorrow afternoon. There are so many games to choose from tomorrow. Stay tuned!Comment -
Plays for Wednesday November 17th, 2010:
Los Angeles Kings -0.5 RT -108: Risking $216 to win $200
The LA Kings have been stellar on home ice all season long. It's almost as if they are improving with every game they play. At home against the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Kings have gone 8-3 over the last 11 meetings. The Blue Jackets have improved since last season, but so have the Kings. LA is on a different level than Columbus, and I think they'll continue their home ice dominance tonight.
Vancouver Canucks +120: Risking $200 to win $240
Write-up can be found on the previous page.
Contemplating making a play on the Red Wings tonight as well.Comment -
Added play for November 17th, 2010:
Detroit Red Wings -0.5 RT -102: Risking $204 to win $200
Ahh, I couldn't keep myself from betting on the Wings tonight. They've been playing so well as a team; as if they're already preparing for the playoffs. Chemistry is spot-on amongst the team. The defense and offense are on the same page during forechecks, which I think is key to Detroit's offensive pressure. More importantly, on home ice, the Wings have gone 2-5 against the Blues over the last seven meetings. However, St. Louis has been sliding badly lately. I think the Blues will definitely be working on tightening up defense tonight. But, they still lack scoring power, which is something that Detroit has an abundance of.Comment -
Eyeballing the Minnesota Wild game. Public is on Anaheim, yet the line has shifted from Minnesota -145 to -160. Not what you'd expect if the public is backing a team. Same situation happened last night with the Philly/Montreal game. The public loved Philadelphia, but the line held steady with Montreal being favoured on the moneyline.Comment -
Added play for November 17th, 2010:
Minnesota Wild -0.5 RT +106: Risking $100 to win $106
Had to make a play on this one. The Xcel Energy Center is a tough place to play. Backstrom and the Wild have been dominant on home ice over the last couple of seasons. Anaheim has gone 1-4 in their last five visits to Minnesota. I think the Wild will squeeze out the win in a low scoring affair.
This will be my final play for this evening. Less is more. I usually try to limit my plays to no more than three per day, but I can make an exception here and there. Good luck tonight everyone.Comment -
Added play for November 17th, 2010:
Detroit Red Wings -0.5 RT -113: Risking $113 to win $100
Threw a little more money on the Wings tonight. Don't let me down, Detroit!Comment -
I use the odds provided by SBRforum.com to compare lines amongst books. They show that 70% of bettors were on Anaheim, and 30% were on Minnesota.Comment -
Wow, talk about taking matters into your own hands. Looks like Toews is tired of losing to the lowly Oilers. He's decided to go ahead and score all three Blackhawks' goals!Comment -
I a fairly break even night 3-2 +0.17 units. Though I have not had much time lately to cap.
I had 0.5 units on the Wings -1.5 +160. Damn Canucks cost me 2 units, I have to cut down my road bets on the Canucks. Keep it only to select games.
5 games on tap for the NHL on Thursday. Any early leans?
Philly hosting TB. Mont hosting Nashville. Mtl is red hot and Philly was hot until they lost to Mtl.Comment -
Ahh, it happens. There were definitely signs that said not to bet on the Canucks tonight. Rule #6: bet against a team that's on the last game of a long road trip. But my gut told me that Pittsburgh wouldn't be able to handle Luongo and the Canucks. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. Just how it goes in this business.
As for my leans for tomorrow night, I like Philly to cripple the Lightning. I think the Flyers defense will give Tampa's offensive line-ups a lot of problems with their size. And Tampa's defense will not be able to contain Philly's offense whatsoever.
I'm liking the Leafs to beat the Devils as well. I'll look more into these two games tomorrow afternoon.Comment -
Summary for November 17th, 2010:
1-3 -$216
I'm thoroughly impressed with what I saw from Columbus' forecheck during tonight's game. It was very aggressive and gave the Kings a tough time moving the puck.Comment -
Will you take Philly to beat Tampa in Regulation for larger units?
or take Philly -1.5 for smaller unitsComment -
Play for Thursday November 18th, 2010:
Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 RT -125: Risking $625 to win $500
This is one of those rare plays where I'm willing to go big. In my eyes, the linesmakers know exactly what they're doing when they're setting the line on the Flyers. This season, as a favourite, the Flyers have gone 10-4, winning their last ten games whenever they were a favourite. Coincidentally enough, they were underdogs against Washington and Montreal, both games were on the road, and those two games are their only blemishes since October 26th. Nevertheless, the Flyers have won five of their last six games against the Lightning with all five of those wins coming by two or more goals.Comment -
Added play for Thursday November 18th, 2010:
Toronto Maple Leafs -115: Risking $230 to win $200
The New Jersey Devils have been making headlines for the wrong reasons ever since the off-season. Starting with the lucrative deal to Kovalchuk that had to be retracted, the Devils started the season on the wrong foot. To worsen matters, it looked as if the signing of Kovalchuk would bring the team to new heights, but it did the exact opposite. I can't remember the last time the Devils started a season so poorly.
On the other hand, the Leafs had their best start since '93 (I believe), but have been struggling ever since. So in a situation where two bad teams face off, I'm going to have to roll with the slightly better team. Believe it or not, the Devils are among the worst in the league in terms of: overal scoring (30th), road scoring (29th), road powerplay (30th), and overall defense (26th). Sloppy defensemen are giving a struggling Brodeur a tough time dealing with shots and rebounds.
Leafs will ride the momentum to their second straight win.
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tough day, hang in there...
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Yea, rough day, no doubt. Flyers had their chances. Blew a two goal lead twice. It happens.
Summary for November 18th, 2010:
1-1 -$425Comment -
Plays for November 19th, 2010:
Phoenix Coyotes -125: Risking $375 to win $300
Several reasons to like this play.
1) The Oilers are absolutely dismal. They've reverted back to the losing mentality of last season.
2) The Oilers are scared of the puck. No one wants it, no one recalls what to do with it; they lack confidence and teamwork.
3) Goaltender match-ups. Dubnyk is incapable of playing at the NHL level, Bryzgalov carried the Coyotes to the playoffs last season.
4) The Oilers are absolutely dismal. The coaches will try to point out their flaws, but bad habits are hard to get rid of.
Detroit Red Wings -0.5 RT -137: Risking $264 to win $200
This cow just keeps on giving milk. Detroit's offense is lights out. I've said it before so there's no need to repeat. Nothing has changed for the Red Wings; they'll continue to do what they do best. Over their last eight meetings in Joe Louis Arena, Detroit has won seven times.
By the way, I'm not on tilt. Going on tilt and chasing losses is a direct path to failure. However, I'll be sticking more to what I do best: bet on or against the teams that I follow and let the dollars roll my way. Might have another play for tonight, stay tuned.
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Damn flyers. I lost 2.2 units on them. Mtl too. Leafs were my only win tonight lol. I might play wings and coyotes tonight as wellComment -
Tough break. The Tampa/Philly game was definitely an anomaly. Both goalies were replaced, that should say enough about how the game went down. Sucks to lose big bets that way. But, consider it a temporary loan to the bookies. I'll have it all back, and more, by the end of the season.Comment -
Some reverse line movement on the LA/Buffalo game, which suggests that Buffalo might be the play in that game. LA backers please be cautious. Originally, I thought I'd be betting on the Kings tonight, especially since they are one of the best Out-of-conference teams in the league, but this line movement made me reconsider.Comment -
Added play for November 19th, 2010:
Colorado Avalanche -122: Risking $244 to win $200
I had to make a play on this. This play follows my West beats the East trend, and once I saw that Craig Anderson was starting for Colorado, it sealed the deal for me. Last season, Craig Anderson posted a 12-3-0 record against the East. Quite formidable. The Avs have strung together two straight wins and I feel that they'll ride that momentum past the Rangers. Not to mention, nearly 70% of the public is on New York, and the line for Colorado dropped from -125 down to -105, before rising back to -122. There can be several reasons to explain the line movement, but I'll just put my money down and see if I'm right.Comment -
Damn. Less than one and a half minutes from getting sweeping the night away and Minnesota ties it up.
Summary for November 20th, 2010:
2-1 +$236Comment -
No plays this weekend. I'll be out of town.Comment -
I've been on a cold streak this week, so I decided to tabulate my plays to see what I'm doing right and what I'm doing wrong. Here's a list of my stats, all of my plays have been posted on this thread.
As of November 20th, 2010:
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WINS: 19
LOSSES: 18
PROFIT: $454
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UNDERDOGS
1-6 -$580
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ML FAVS
7-4 +$865
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-1.5 PUCKLINES
2-0 +$438
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-0.5 REGULATION TIME
9-7 +$121
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TOTALS
0-1 -$390
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$100 plays
7-13 -$607
$200 plays
9-3 $1164
$300 plays
3-1 $522
$500 plays
0-1 -$625
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OTHER INTERESTING FACTS
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Team I've WON the most money betting AGAINST:
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
4-0 +$836
EDMONTON OILERS
2-0 +$540
ST LOUIS BLUES
2-0 +$500
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
2-0 +$300
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
2-0 +$300
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Teams that I've LOST the most money betting AGAINST:
MINNESOTA WILD
0-3 -$529
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
1-1 -$525
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
0-2 -$340
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Teams I've WON the most money betting ON:
LOS ANGELES KINGS
4-1 +$384
COLORADO AVALANCHE
2-1 +$286
DETROIT RED WINGS
2-1 +$266
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
2-1 +$258
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
2-2 +$212
There are no particular teams that I lose a noteworthy amount of money on.
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DOES THE WEST REALLY BEAT THE EAST?
Record of the Western Conference Teams vs Eastern Conference teams from my plays
West vs East
6-1 +$732
East vs West
1-2 EVEN
What does that mean?
In short, from the 10 non-conference games I've played, the West has come out on top eight times. The only time I've correctly chosen the East to beat the West was earlier this week when Toronto made the epic comeback against Nashville.
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MOST INTERESTING FACT TO DATE
I've correctly guessed the outcome of the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS six out of seven times for a PROFIT of $1094
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Just before I leave town, here's a play for Saturday that I like.
Plays for November 20th, 2010:
Florida Panthers +101: Risking $100 to win $101
The Panthers' play the game in a style that will give struggling teams the fits. If you're playing sloppy, they'll force turnovers, takeaway the puck, and lock down on defense. I expect the Panthers to do to the Islanders, just what they did to the Leafs a week and a half ago.
The Islanders are off to their worst start since the Lockout of 2005 (though I didn't bother checking past that season). After 18 games, they've collected 11 points, and are losers of 11 straight games. They're 1-5 SU over their last six games against the Panthers, and 3-6-1 against them over their last 10 meetings.
St. Louis Blues -0.5 RT +112: Risking $300 to win $336
To begin, this will be the last time that I mention my strategy of betting on Western Conference teams to beat Eastern Conference teams. The Devils are just plain dismal. Believe it or not, the Devils are among the worst in the league in terms of: overal scoring (30th), road scoring (29th), road powerplay (30th), and overall defense (26th). Yes, I said the same thing a few nights ago when they played the Leafs, and I can say the same thing today because, well, they didn't improve, did they? The Devils' defense is sloppy...sloppier than Kim Kardashian's pussizle. Brodeur is not starting either.
St. Louis is a perfect 6-0-0 against the East this year. And even though Halak has been struggling, let's hope he can pull it together and find his form tonight. Halak's struggles are my only seed of doubt, and the only thing stopping me from making another $500 play.Comment -
Oh nice. Compiled a few more stats and added them for reference.Comment -
Summary for November 20th, 2010:
2-0 +437Comment -
ML or -0.5 RT? Hmmm...
Here's another stat that I found very interesting. As you may know, I love to play the -0.5 RT lines because I feel that it saves money in the long run. My reasoning behind my strategy is that I really feel that if a big ML favourite doesn't win in regulation time, they don't deserve to be a big favourite in overtime or shootouts.
Extra time in hockey is a totally different game. The open ice allows for teams to move the puck a lot quicker and, in general, forces defencemen into making bad plays or getting trapped. Even worse, when a team goes on a powerplay, there's just so much ice to work with, it almost guarantees a win for the team on the PP. When it goes to shootout, it's even more of a coin flip. Just think about this: whenever you watch a shootout, the broadcasters usually tell you about each shooter's career stats in shootout attempts. Most teams will put their best three guys out. These guys usually score on about 25-45% of their shootout attempts over the span of their career. To me, extra time in the NHL is a coinflip: no team deserves to be anything more than a -130 favourite against the other.
Now to get to my proof. So far this season, out of 39 plays, 18 of them have been on the -0.5 RT line, hitting at a clip of 10-7. Not too spectacular, but let's break down the losses. Here are the seven losses of mine:
Date | Away team | Home team | ML favourite | -0.5 RT Line | Final score, winning team
Nov 13 | Washington @ Buffalo | WAS -140 | WAS -0.5 +125 | 3-2 OT, Buffalo
Nov 14 | Minnesota @ Tampa Bay | TB -165 | TB -0.5 +105 | 4-1, Minnesota
Nov 15 | NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh | PIT -165 | PIT -0.5 -102 | 3-2 OT, NY Rangers
Nov 17 | Columbus @ Los Angeles | LA -180 | LA -0.5 -108 | 5-3, Columbus
Nov 17 | Anaheim @ Minnesota | MIN -160 | MIN -0.5 +106 | 2-1 OT, Minnesota
Nov 18 | Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia | PHI -230 | PHI -0.5 -125 | 8-7, Tampa Bay
Nov 19 | Minnesota @ Detroit | DET -235 | DET -0.5 -137 | 4-3 OT, Minnesota
I know, not the best chart, but the facts are all there.
Here are the facts you should learn. Out of the seven losses:
-only one team won in overtime
-three plays lost outright as ML favourites in regulation time
-three plays lost as ML favourites in overtime
Here's a breakdown of the ML vs -0.5 RT line. Assuming I'm betting to win $100 on each of those seven plays:
-with the -0.5 RT line, I'd be down -$566
-if I'd taken the ML instead of the -0.5 RT line, I'd have a record of 1-6 for a loss of -$1015
To summarize this, losing sucks, but in this business, learning where to save your money is the best way to, well, save your money. This is a small sample of plays, but as you can see, from my losses, my logic does apply: if a big ML favourite doesn't win in regulation, they don't deserve to be a big ML favourite in overtime.
This is my second season handicapping NHL. I'm still learning how to become a better handicapper in this sport. The learning curve is tough, but when you know what kind of things to look out for, you can find success here. A lot of the things I talk about when I make my plays are strategies I developed last year. If you guys follow my plays, I highly suggest that you read the write-ups that accompany each play. You'll quickly see how to combine historic trends, recent trends, momentum, line movement, and how to size your units. I try to be as informative as possible, hopefully you can learn a thing or two.
Just to add to my -0.5 RT stats:
Out of the ten -0.5 RT bets I've won so far, eight of them have come by two or more goals.Comment -
Summary for the Week of November 15th-21st:
8-7 +$230
Not bad considering the awful 5-unit play on Philly.Comment
