NHL leans

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  • sedwards86
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-25-16
    • 451

    #1
    NHL leans
    I will post games that I have leans on each day, if there are any for that particular day. The leans will be based off patterns that I have noticed by checking Covers.com every day the past three seasons. I will not be personally betting each of the leans that I post, but I will tell which one or two I am going to bet. I will track the wins/losses as well as units won/lost to help keep up with how the leans are looking down the stretch.

    I do not care about the trolls who will criticize me if I do poorly. Your opinions do not matter. You do not matter. The only people I care about are my parents, my wife and kids, and my pit bull, Pacman. So if you do come on here with negativity, do not expect a response. I will give feedback to any questions, however.
  • sedwards86
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-25-16
    • 451

    #2
    12/29 Leans:

    Capitals PL-1.5 (+130) (vs Devils) LOSS
    Blackhawks ML+115 (@ Predators) WIN
    Jets ML+115 (vs Blue Jackets) LOSS
    Canadiens ML-110 (@ Panthers) WIN
    Stars ML-200 (vs Avalanche) WIN
    Flames ML-110 (vs Ducks) LOSS


    Two bets. First one will be on the Canadiens-110. They are starting Montoya in net. I would rather them start Price, but he played last night. Florida has the 8th worse home record and Reimer (backup) is in net. I like Canadiens 4-3.
    Second bet will be Hawks+115. Crawford in net for them. Preds haven't confirmed yet, but I expect Rinne, who is damn tough. Subban is questionable. I pray that he sits. Nashville is not the team I thought they would be before the season started. They've underachieved thus far. I hope it continues. Blackhawks 3-2, probably in overtime.
    Comment
    • sedwards86
      SBR Sharp
      • 10-25-16
      • 451

      #3
      Me LEANS went 3-3. +0.05 units baby. Haha at least it's a positive night for my first night. However, I did win both of my BETS so that's +2.15 units won last night. I find it best when you only bet about half of your daily leans.

      I will only have one lean for 12/30. That's the Sharks -1.5 (+170) versus the Flyers. I may or may not bet it. The Sharks have won the last five H2H, which I actually don't like seeing. The Sharks have definitely gotten better since the beginning of the season and are right where I expected them to be. I do think they win this game, just a little nervous about the puck line. I will make a determination on betting it or not after goalie confirmations. If the Flyers put Anthony Stolarz in net, hell I might take back everything and bet the house on them. That kid is the truth. I pray that they put Steve Mason in there.
      Comment
      • sedwards86
        SBR Sharp
        • 10-25-16
        • 451

        #4
        Well, the Flyers are starting Mason like I had hoped. However, the Sharks are starting Aaron Dell, a 27 year old NHL rookie. It will be his third career start. I'm still going to bet Sharks -1.5.
        Comment
        • sedwards86
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-25-16
          • 451

          #5
          Way to go San Jose! A shutout with a rookie goalie. Hell yea! Updated season totals.
          My leans: 4-3. +1.75 units
          My bets: 3-0. +3.85 units

          Today's leans:
          Devils ML +150 (vs Capitals) LOSS
          Rangers PL -1.5(+175) (at Avalanche) WIN
          Rangers ML-185 (at Avalanche) WIN
          Canucks ML+215 (at Oilers) WIN
          Sharks ML+100 (at Kings) LOSS


          I will post my bets just as soon as goalie confirmations are made, plus I need to study over my leans.
          Comment
          • sedwards86
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-25-16
            • 451

            #6
            Big games today.
            Comment
            • sedwards86
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-25-16
              • 451

              #7
              Two bets tonight. Rangers -1.5(+175). Looks like Lundqvist will start. Varlamov is out, so Colorado has to go with backup, Calvin Pickard. Their is one thing that makes me nervous about this game. Literally every single statistic says Rangers should blow the Avalanche out. I hope it isn't too good to be true.
              Second bet is Sharks+100. Now we know why Dell started last night. They were saving Jones for tonight. Sharks are a hot team right now. Sharks have won last four against Kings, whatever that is worth. I honestly thought Sharks would be favored in this game. Being on the road and second night of B2B are why they are dogs.

              THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL. But I can't stop myself from wagering on the biggest game of the season thus far. Blue Jackets at Wild. I have a rule for these type games. I always bet the dog. It's pretty much a tossup so I take +money bet. Sorry, no analytical reasoning. It has worked out well in 2016. NCAAB Championship (Nova over UNC). NBA Finals and Christmas Day(Cavs over Warriorettes). NFL Super Bowl (Broncos over Panthers). So tonight, I'm taking Blue Jackets +115.
              Comment
              • sedwards86
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-25-16
                • 451

                #8
                12/31 LEANS:
                Devils ML +150 (vs Capitals) LOSS
                Rangers PL -1.5(+175) (at Avalanche) WIN
                Rangers ML-185 (at Avalanche) WIN
                Canucks ML+215 (at Oilers) WIN
                Sharks ML+100 (at Kings) LOSS

                12/31 Bets:
                Rangers -1.5(+175) WIN
                Sharks +100 LOSS

                Plus I hit Blue Jackets +115 (off the record)

                YTD Records
                Leans: 7-5. +4.65 units
                Bets: 4-1. +4.60 units

                Hopefully 2017 is a good year for us all!
                Comment
                • sedwards86
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 10-25-16
                  • 451

                  #9
                  I only have one lean for Monday. It's Bruins-140 @ Devils. I despise paying juice. I prefer not to single bet these leans. I will try to find something else to parlay this lean with.
                  Comment
                  • sedwards86
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-25-16
                    • 451

                    #10
                    Couldn't decide on anything in NHL to parlay with Bruins (odds now -150), so I'm parlaying it with Utah Jazz-6.5. Odds are +218 for the parlay. For this thread, I will count the bet as Bruins-150 single bet since this is a NHL thread
                    Comment
                    • sedwards86
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 10-25-16
                      • 451

                      #11
                      YTD Leans: 7-6 (+3.15 units)
                      YTD Bets: 4-2 (+3.10 units)

                      Two leans today.
                      Capitals -165 vs. Maple Leafs
                      Lightning -1.5 (+175) vs. Jets

                      Will be waiting for goalie confirmations before deciding whether or not to bet these.
                      Comment
                      • Flea Hotel
                        Restricted User
                        • 08-31-16
                        • 1732

                        #12
                        fwiw my models have the TBL PL being a "near miss" for me. I almost played it. Focusing mainly on the CBJ/EDM game.
                        Originally posted by sedwards86
                        YTD Leans: 7-6 (+3.15 units)
                        YTD Bets: 4-2 (+3.10 units)

                        Two leans today.
                        Capitals -165 vs. Maple Leafs
                        Lightning -1.5 (+175) vs. Jets

                        Will be waiting for goalie confirmations before deciding whether or not to bet these.
                        Comment
                        • sedwards86
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 10-25-16
                          • 451

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Flea Hotel
                          fwiw my models have the TBL PL being a "near miss" for me. I almost played it. Focusing mainly on the CBJ/EDM game.
                          I love your Edmonton pick. That one caught my eye this morning while taking my morning shit (no apples lol).
                          This thread is just tracking a pattern that I'm on. I use no statistical analysis whatsoever in coming up with leans. I do a little research before making bets. You are the stats man! I'll leave that to people like you. I do have a thread I'm thinking about starting based of my stats work. That way you all can laugh, maybe even fade.
                          Comment
                          • sedwards86
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-25-16
                            • 451

                            #14
                            Capitals -165 vs. Maple Leafs WIN
                            Lightning -1.5 (+175) vs. Jets LOSS

                            Didn't like either one enough to bet.

                            YTD Leans: 8-7 (+3.15 units)
                            YTD Bets: 4-2 (+3.10 units)

                            Today's lean. 1/4
                            Canucks -1.5 (+175) WIN
                            Comment
                            • sedwards86
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 10-25-16
                              • 451

                              #15
                              YTD Leans: 9-7. +4.90 units
                              YTD Bets: 4-2. +3.10 units


                              1/5 Leans

                              Bruins -1.5 (+215)
                              Blues -1.5 (+205)
                              Kings -210

                              Gonna bet them all. Good luck.
                              Comment
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