NHL - Wednesday. 3/30/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    NHL - Wednesday. 3/30/16
    1 NHL Play Wednesday

    Flames +216 (Heritage)


    YTD: 169-186-16, +8.82
  • mikefan1034
    SBR MVP
    • 08-29-12
    • 2448

    #2
    Originally posted by LT Profits
    1 NHL Play Wednesday

    Flames +216 (Heritage)


    YTD: 169-186-16, +8.82
    Lmaoooo really man. Ur on auto fade right now
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388179

      #3
      Flames can win

      Why not??
      Comment
      • PorkChop
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-18-08
        • 8193

        #4
        Originally posted by jjgold
        Flames can win

        Why not??

        Asking them to win back to back on road is tuff. (Both at over +220 odds). But sweeping a team 5 times is tough as well, (Which Anaheim is trying tonight), but don't ask Chicago and Minnesota about that .

        (Im pretty sure LT is the only one who will understand this post ha)
        Comment
        • Mike Huntertz
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-19-09
          • 11207

          #5
          Originally posted by jjgold
          Flames can win

          Why not??
          Hiller in goal. I can't wager a dime on him.
          Comment
          • RollinDo
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-04-13
            • 13322

            #6
            Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
            Hiller in goal. I can't wager a dime on him.
            I'm on Flames TT (U 2.5)
            Comment
            • mrginandtonic
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-11-09
              • 7734

              #7
              I think I read somewhere that said Calgary hasn't won in Anaheim for over 10 years?!! Can they win tonight?? Hiller sometimes goes into shutout mode against his former team. Doesn't Anaheim have some key players out??
              Comment
              • Mike Huntertz
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-19-09
                • 11207

                #8
                Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                I think I read somewhere that said Calgary hasn't won in Anaheim for over 10 years?!! Can they win tonight?? Hiller sometimes goes into shutout mode against his former team. Doesn't Anaheim have some key players out??
                Versus Ducks: This yr. his GAA is 6.57, last yr 3.43
                Hiller is ranked #46, dead last this yr.
                Comment
                • PorkChop
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-18-08
                  • 8193

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
                  Versus Ducks: This yr. his GAA is 6.57, last yr 3.43
                  Hiller is ranked #46, dead last this yr.

                  22 straight.
                  Comment
                  • funnyb25
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 07-09-09
                    • 39663

                    #10
                    LT doesnt care about those facts
                    Comment
                    • gambler705
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-04-11
                      • 376

                      #11
                      Originally posted by mikefan1034
                      Lmaoooo really man. Ur on auto fade right now
                      LT is an action junkie, who uses his so called "model" to create perceived artificial value and justify the ridiculuous number of plays he throws out there. That said, i doubt there are 5% of the sbr population who could wager on half the games being played in a league season who could still be UP units, albeit the small amount. And he is completely transparent with all activity which is respectable.
                      Comment
                      • pavyracer
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 04-12-07
                        • 82824

                        #12
                        If LTs model spilled out Calgary you should not question Calgary's record in Anaheim. The computer is smart.
                        Comment
                        • gambler705
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-04-11
                          • 376

                          #13
                          Stop, the " model "is hitting at sub 50%... And its clearly skewed to perceived value on dogs


                          Originally posted by pavyracer
                          If LTs model spilled out Calgary you should not question Calgary's record in Anaheim. The computer is smart.
                          Comment
                          • mikefan1034
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-29-12
                            • 2448

                            #14
                            Originally posted by gambler705
                            LT is an action junkie, who uses his so called "model" to create perceived artificial value and justify the ridiculuous number of plays he throws out there. That said, i doubt there are 5% of the sbr population who could wager on half the games being played in a league season who could still be UP units, albeit the small amount. And he is completely transparent with all activity which is respectable.
                            Imo he's worthless to this forum. Ain't nobody playing every game he takes and risking that much money on long shot dogs everyday
                            Comment
                            • eddycash
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-06-13
                              • 4527

                              #15
                              if you have 100 units in your roll for each sport, you can follow the LT model
                              Comment
                              • pavyracer
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 04-12-07
                                • 82824

                                #16
                                They say modeling is the way to go in sports gambling. How come I never met a millionaire mathematician?
                                Comment
                                • gambler705
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-04-11
                                  • 376

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                  Imo he's worthless to this forum. Ain't nobody playing every game he takes and risking that much money on long shot dogs everyday
                                  your ridiculous "lock of the century" posts are worthless to this forum. I don't necessarily agree with LTs approach, but you just sound like a bitter juvenile in 95% of your posts and really offer nothing of value.
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by gambler705
                                    Stop, the " model "is hitting at sub 50%... And its clearly skewed to perceived value on dogs
                                    Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

                                    And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.
                                    Comment
                                    • pavyracer
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-12-07
                                      • 82824

                                      #19
                                      MLB is LT's best sport due to abundance of statistics and the fact that it is not a team sport but individual hitters and pitchers sport.

                                      NFL is his worst due to short season, not enough games to build reliable data, and being a team sport where individual statistics have minimal value.
                                      Comment
                                      • DigBick86
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-06-10
                                        • 1930

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                        Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

                                        And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.
                                        Dont care about what the losers say they now nothing about value keep giving your picks they are appriciated
                                        Comment
                                        • Mike Huntertz
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-19-09
                                          • 11207

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                                          Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

                                          And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.
                                          Value is +EV
                                          That is why LT is up after so many games wagered!
                                          Comment
                                          • POOLSIDE
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-06-14
                                            • 2839

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                                            Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

                                            And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.
                                            I love how many people don't understand math and are so intimidated by it that they'll aggressively and rudely attack your loyalty to it despite being completely unprovoked.

                                            LT is worthless to this forum? Even if he only treads water in all other sports, his baseball model was probably the most successful on the planet last season. You wanna talk about worthless to this forum? That conversation starts and ends with pavy.
                                            Comment
                                            • donkeykong
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 01-01-16
                                              • 295

                                              #23
                                              I can't wait to check out his baseball system!
                                              Comment
                                              • gambler705
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-04-11
                                                • 376

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

                                                And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.
                                                i fully understand that... but winning percentage IS RELEVANT, in regards to the post Street Racer made earlier.
                                                have you ever thought about tightening your parameters a bit to trim down the number of plays, and play the "stronger" plays. Do you really believe that a model you (or I for that matter) creates is going to beat Vegas' line with any significant edge 400 times in a season? Curious what your record be if so... Nothing wrong just getting as many chips on the table if action is your thing though.

                                                Best of luck either way.
                                                Comment
                                                • POOLSIDE
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-06-14
                                                  • 2839

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by gambler705
                                                  i fully understand that... but winning percentage IS RELEVANT, in regards to the post Street Racer made earlier.
                                                  have you ever thought about tightening your parameters a bit to trim down the number of plays, and play the "stronger" plays. Do you really believe that a model you (or I for that matter) creates is going to beat Vegas' line with any significant edge 400 times in a season? Curious what your record be if so... Nothing wrong just getting as many chips on the table if action is your thing though.

                                                  Best of luck either way.
                                                  You don't get it. He's not "beating Vegas' line". He's betting on value. Lines change in response to money, among other factors. Any movement at all adds value to one side or the other. LT is betting the value, not beating Vegas's system.

                                                  And winning percentage IS NOT RELEVANT (I can do all caps too). Plus or minus units is what's relevant. He could win one percent of his bets, but if all his bets paid 200:1 he'd be insanely successful. In fact, due to the flat betting and overall consistency he uses, LT's system is one of the best examples of why winning percentage isn't relevant.

                                                  What's relevant is winning more money than you lose.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Mike Huntertz
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-19-09
                                                    • 11207

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
                                                    Versus Ducks: This yr. his GAA is 6.57, last yr 3.43
                                                    Hiller is ranked #46, dead last this yr.
                                                    Hiller did what was expected.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LT Profits
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 90963

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by gambler705
                                                      Do you really believe that a model you (or I for that matter) creates is going to beat Vegas' line with any significant edge 400 times in a season?
                                                      No I do not. Which is precisely why I accept smaller edges, which also leads to the higher volume. More plays with smaller edges usually leads to less volatility than betting on fewer games with bigger edges. So it has nothing to do with being an "action junkie" at all. Action junkies that play my volume would generally get buried.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mikefan1034
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-29-12
                                                        • 2448

                                                        #28
                                                        3-0 ducks 5 min into game . LT why don't u play the ducks -1.5 for value lol
                                                        Comment
                                                        • POOLSIDE
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-06-14
                                                          • 2839

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                          Action junkies that play my volume would generally get buried.
                                                          Hundred percent
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                                            3-0 ducks 5 min into game . LT why don't u play the ducks -1.5 for value lol
                                                            You just don't get it, I even said I expect to lose this game 66% of the time. You are a short term thinker, whereas I bet every day of my life. So I don't mind losing plays like this when I get +216 on the 34% that win. And there is almost never good value on Puck Lines, either + or -.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pavyracer
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 04-12-07
                                                              • 82824

                                                              #31
                                                              Minor anomaly in the model. Bet was good.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jjgold
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 07-20-05
                                                                • 388179

                                                                #32
                                                                Mike stop stalking pal

                                                                We want winners from you and a spreadsheet
                                                                Comment
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