NHL - Wednesday. 3/30/16

mikefan1034 · 03-30-16, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

1 NHL Play Wednesday

Flames +216 (Heritage)

YTD: 169-186-16, +8.82

Lmaoooo really man. Ur on auto fade right now

jjgold · 03-30-16, 01:10 PM

Flames can win

Why not??

PorkChop · 03-30-16, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Flames can win

Why not??

Asking them to win back to back on road is tuff. (Both at over +220 odds). But sweeping a team 5 times is tough as well, (Which Anaheim is trying tonight), but don't ask Chicago and Minnesota about that

.

(Im pretty sure LT is the only one who will understand this post ha)

Mike Huntertz · 03-30-16, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Flames can win

Why not??

Hiller in goal. I can't wager a dime on him.

RollinDo · 03-30-16, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Hiller in goal. I can't wager a dime on him.

I'm on Flames TT (U 2.5)

mrginandtonic · 03-30-16, 03:26 PM

I think I read somewhere that said Calgary hasn't won in Anaheim for over 10 years?!! Can they win tonight?? Hiller sometimes goes into shutout mode against his former team. Doesn't Anaheim have some key players out??

Mike Huntertz · 03-30-16, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

I think I read somewhere that said Calgary hasn't won in Anaheim for over 10 years?!! Can they win tonight?? Hiller sometimes goes into shutout mode against his former team. Doesn't Anaheim have some key players out??

Versus Ducks: This yr. his GAA is 6.57, last yr 3.43
Hiller is ranked #46, dead last this yr.

PorkChop · 03-30-16, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Versus Ducks: This yr. his GAA is 6.57, last yr 3.43
Hiller is ranked #46, dead last this yr.

22 straight.

funnyb25 · 03-30-16, 04:17 PM

LT doesnt care about those facts

gambler705 · 03-30-16, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by mikefan1034

Lmaoooo really man. Ur on auto fade right now

LT is an action junkie, who uses his so called "model" to create perceived artificial value and justify the ridiculuous number of plays he throws out there. That said, i doubt there are 5% of the sbr population who could wager on half the games being played in a league season who could still be UP units, albeit the small amount. And he is completely transparent with all activity which is respectable.

pavyracer · 03-30-16, 05:26 PM

If LTs model spilled out Calgary you should not question Calgary's record in Anaheim. The computer is smart.

gambler705 · 03-30-16, 05:35 PM

Stop, the " model "is hitting at sub 50%... And its clearly skewed to perceived value on dogs

Originally posted by pavyracer

If LTs model spilled out Calgary you should not question Calgary's record in Anaheim. The computer is smart.

mikefan1034 · 03-30-16, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by gambler705

LT is an action junkie, who uses his so called "model" to create perceived artificial value and justify the ridiculuous number of plays he throws out there. That said, i doubt there are 5% of the sbr population who could wager on half the games being played in a league season who could still be UP units, albeit the small amount. And he is completely transparent with all activity which is respectable.

Imo he's worthless to this forum. Ain't nobody playing every game he takes and risking that much money on long shot dogs everyday

eddycash · 03-30-16, 06:21 PM

if you have 100 units in your roll for each sport, you can follow the LT model

pavyracer · 03-30-16, 06:28 PM

They say modeling is the way to go in sports gambling. How come I never met a millionaire mathematician?

gambler705 · 03-30-16, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by mikefan1034

Imo he's worthless to this forum. Ain't nobody playing every game he takes and risking that much money on long shot dogs everyday

your ridiculous "lock of the century" posts are worthless to this forum. I don't necessarily agree with LTs approach, but you just sound like a bitter juvenile in 95% of your posts and really offer nothing of value.

LT Profits · 03-30-16, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by gambler705

Stop, the " model "is hitting at sub 50%... And its clearly skewed to perceived value on dogs

Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.

pavyracer · 03-30-16, 07:32 PM

MLB is LT's best sport due to abundance of statistics and the fact that it is not a team sport but individual hitters and pitchers sport.

NFL is his worst due to short season, not enough games to build reliable data, and being a team sport where individual statistics have minimal value.

DigBick86 · 03-30-16, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.

Dont care about what the losers say they now nothing about value keep giving your picks they are appriciated

Mike Huntertz · 03-30-16, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.

Value is +EV
That is why LT is up after so many games wagered!

POOLSIDE · 03-30-16, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.

I love how many people don't understand math and are so intimidated by it that they'll aggressively and rudely attack your loyalty to it despite being completely unprovoked.

LT is worthless to this forum? Even if he only treads water in all other sports, his baseball model was probably the most successful on the planet last season. You wanna talk about worthless to this forum? That conversation starts and ends with pavy.

donkeykong · 03-30-16, 08:34 PM

I can't wait to check out his baseball system!

gambler705 · 03-30-16, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.

And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.

i fully understand that... but winning percentage IS RELEVANT, in regards to the post Street Racer made earlier.
have you ever thought about tightening your parameters a bit to trim down the number of plays, and play the "stronger" plays. Do you really believe that a model you (or I for that matter) creates is going to beat Vegas' line with any significant edge 400 times in a season? Curious what your record be if so... Nothing wrong just getting as many chips on the table if action is your thing though.

Best of luck either way.

POOLSIDE · 03-30-16, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by gambler705

i fully understand that... but winning percentage IS RELEVANT, in regards to the post Street Racer made earlier.
have you ever thought about tightening your parameters a bit to trim down the number of plays, and play the "stronger" plays. Do you really believe that a model you (or I for that matter) creates is going to beat Vegas' line with any significant edge 400 times in a season? Curious what your record be if so... Nothing wrong just getting as many chips on the table if action is your thing though.

Best of luck either way.

You don't get it. He's not "beating Vegas' line". He's betting on value. Lines change in response to money, among other factors. Any movement at all adds value to one side or the other. LT is betting the value, not beating Vegas's system.

And winning percentage IS NOT RELEVANT (I can do all caps too). Plus or minus units is what's relevant. He could win one percent of his bets, but if all his bets paid 200:1 he'd be insanely successful. In fact, due to the flat betting and overall consistency he uses, LT's system is one of the best examples of why winning percentage isn't relevant.

What's relevant is winning more money than you lose.

Mike Huntertz · 03-30-16, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Versus Ducks: This yr. his GAA is 6.57, last yr 3.43
Hiller is ranked #46, dead last this yr.

Hiller did what was expected.

LT Profits · 03-30-16, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by gambler705

Do you really believe that a model you (or I for that matter) creates is going to beat Vegas' line with any significant edge 400 times in a season?

No I do not. Which is precisely why I accept smaller edges, which also leads to the higher volume. More plays with smaller edges usually leads to less volatility than betting on fewer games with bigger edges. So it has nothing to do with being an "action junkie" at all. Action junkies that play my volume would generally get buried.

mikefan1034 · 03-30-16, 09:32 PM

3-0 ducks 5 min into game . LT why don't u play the ducks -1.5 for value lol

POOLSIDE · 03-30-16, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Action junkies that play my volume would generally get buried.

Hundred percent

LT Profits · 03-30-16, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by mikefan1034

3-0 ducks 5 min into game . LT why don't u play the ducks -1.5 for value lol

You just don't get it, I even said I expect to lose this game 66% of the time. You are a short term thinker, whereas I bet every day of my life. So I don't mind losing plays like this when I get +216 on the 34% that win. And there is almost never good value on Puck Lines, either + or -.

pavyracer · 03-30-16, 09:55 PM

Minor anomaly in the model. Bet was good.

jjgold · 03-30-16, 11:20 PM

Mike stop stalking pal

We want winners from you and a spreadsheet