NHL Thread 2015-2016 Season

[jontebond]

3/11:
Tampa @ Detroit: Tampa ML (3u) Tampa In Regulation (3u), Tampa -1.5 (2u)
Just a much better team. They have been a bit of a slump, but after Carolina game they should have all the momentum. Detroit not a good team, and missing key players in the lineup.


Dallas @ Boston: Over 5.5 (2u), Dallas in regulation (1.5u), Dallas -1.5 (1u)
Dallas can't be happy about last game, losing to a horrible team like Toronto. They will come out, they can score, so can boston.
I see this game go over for sure. I can see Dallas winning this game. It is a back to back, but I feel they saved energy for this game tonight with Seguin back in Boston.


Calgary @ Colorado: Over 5.5 (3u), Colorado in Regulation (2u), Colorado -1.5 (1u):
Not liking how the Calgary is playing at all. They had luck Talbot was bad against them, defensively they are poor. So are Colorado, But Colorado looked like they might be able to start winning soon.

[jontebond]

Flyers @ Oilers: Over 5.5 (3u)
Both goalies are not good. Nilsson I claim is one of the worst backup in the league. With Giroux scoring last game you have to think it will lose for the first line and they will put some points on the board. Oilers speedy offense will cause damage to the defense of Flyers.
Also flyers still taking tons of penalties so oilers PP should get lots of opportunities.

[Goat Milk]

GL. I agree on the Tampa pick, although I do think the Red Wings are a much better team than Tampa Bay when everyone his healthy. They are missing the best 2 way player in the NHL after all. Can't replace that.

[jontebond]

GL. I agree on the Tampa pick, although I do think the Red Wings are a much better team than Tampa Bay when everyone his healthy. They are missing the best 2 way player in the NHL after all. Can't replace that.

Yeah for sure they are a much better team when they are healthy. Hope Datsyk will get back soon.

[Goat Milk]

I wanted to ask you.

I love your analysis with your picks.

You sound like a hockey expert so here is what I am wondering....

Do you ever analyze player matchups? Like a teams 1st line against opposing 1st line, 2nd against 2nd, 3rd against 3rd, 4th against 4th.

In basketball, I know that matchups are everything.

In hockey, I often see a team that has a much stronger 3rd and 4th line will dominate a team that is only heavy at 1 or 2 lines. Do you ever factor that in? And if so, I would love to see that in your analysis going forward.

I think the teams that win the cup every year are so balanced across 3 lines. That's why I like Detroit to make a run this year, if everyone is healthy. They have a lot of weapons across 4 lines.

[jontebond]

I wanted to ask you.

I love your analysis with your picks.

You sound like a hockey expert so here is what I am wondering....

Do you ever analyze player matchups? Like a teams 1st line against opposing 1st line, 2nd against 2nd, 3rd against 3rd, 4th against 4th.

In basketball, I know that matchups are everything.

In hockey, I often see a team that has a much stronger 3rd and 4th line will dominate a team that is only heavy at 1 or 2 lines. Do you ever factor that in? And if so, I would love to see that in your analysis going forward.

I think the teams that win the cup every year are so balanced across 3 lines. That's why I like Detroit to make a run this year, if everyone is healthy. They have a lot of weapons across 4 lines.

Yes I do. In ANY team that wants success, you need 4 good lines, it doesn't matter if you have Crosby and Malkin, you will not win the cup with 2 lines. Depths is really everything, and injury resilience.

I do matchup on players, trying to think how they will line up against each other. I can't do it every night as I have a normal work but when I get a bit of time I like to run matchup on each games. I'm also a big fan of possession stats CF and FF in various situation.
Trending this stats will give a good overview of the team in case you can't watch all the games.

For example, players like Couturier has such more more value then he's points or plusminus shows. He is a real solid player that match up against any top line in the league. So when the Flyers has him on the IR this is a killer to back the opponent teams. He is also a great PK guy that really get in the face of the opponents, a real pest to play against, so he is really missed in the Flyers lineup.

I have some scripts that dumps Advanced stats from hockey-reference.com that will help me track the progress.

[jontebond]

I can include a bit more analysis in my next picks, if I get the time for a writeup.

BOL tonight.

[jontebond]

Both Ramo and Neuvirth is having a super night, game will probably stay under.
Edmonton has shot 30 shots and half the game.
Colorado is leading the shots with 18.

Just one of those nights, where the team can't score, cmon guys get some dirty ones with traffic.

[jontebond]

Tampa ML (3u)
Tampa In Regulation (3u)
Tampa -1.5 (2u)
Dallas Over 5.5 (2u)
Dallas in regulation (1.5u)
Dallas -1.5 (1u)
Over 5.5 (3u)
Colorado in Regulation (2u)
Colorado -1.5 (1u)
Flyers @ Oilers: Over 5.5 (3u)

Daily summery: 7 of 10: +10.8 units

[jontebond]

YTD: 105 W, 100 L (+78.9 units)+7,890$

[jontebond]

4/11:

Jets @ Maple Leafs: Jets in Regulation (2.5u), Jets -1.5 (1.5u), Game Over 5.5 (2u)
Jets is the better team. Toronto won against Dallas, but half of the team used this game as a warm up for Seguins game in boston the other day. I wouldn't read too much Toronto's win 4 - 1 against Dallas. Reimer played solid, but he is not a good goalie.
Reimer is average at best, and with Big jets player making Reimer move a lot in goal, he will surely overcommit a couple of time tonight.

Jets coming of a heavy loss, they know they need to win this.
This type of games, were we have Jets (Playoff contender) vs Toronto (Rebuilding mode), They know this is a must win. If they don't win game like this, they will not make the playoff.

Blues @ Blackhawks: Blackhawks in Regulation (2u), Blackhawks -1.5 (1.5u)
Blues just look terrible. Low energy and a very de-moralized lineup due to heavy injuries to key players in the team. Back to back away against Chicago is never a good situation. I think they were simply terrible yesterday against Kings, and I assume they will suck tonight again.

Blues still have following players on the IR: Schwartz, Stastny, Shattenkirk, Berglund
They are massive including a 2nd and 3rd center gone. I know Berglund has been injured all the time, but he is really needed.


Penguins @ Canucks: Penguins in Regulation (1.5u), Penguins -1.5 (1u)
Going with the hotter team. Penguins play a solid defensive game with a goalie that is a candidate to win the Veniza this year if he continues. Balance between lines are getting their. Fehr back in the lineup and he looked sharp in the first game vs Toronto.
They have very deep forwards lineup and they will score lots of goals. The only worry about this team is, WHY are they not scoring in Powerplay. Last two games they have 1 goal each, so hopefully they got that stupid monkey off their back.

Miller doesn't have good stats against Penguins, mostly because he's time in Buffalo, however he can have problems with speedy team and team that pressure deep on him. If Hornqvist gets in he's face and he start playing with he's emotions, he could let a couple of easy goals in. I think this will be there tactics, to generate and get tons of traffic in-front of him, bump him a bit.

Bieksa is also gone from Canucks, he has been a pure pain for Sid every single game. Now he will play against Edler and Tanev, which is much easy.

[johnny99]

Whats the different "in regulation" odds??? My book doesnt offer that. Is it the same playing ML or it pays more??

[Pikachu]

Regulation is for 60 minutes play only. If it goes Overtime, your bet is lost. You pay less juice with regulation bet.

[jontebond]

What is going on in the Chicago game???? 5 - 5 after 2 periods. This game could have been played 20 years ago with this score.
Both Crawford and Elliott really terrible in Net.

[Pikachu]

If hawks lose this game, I would be so pissed. Leading by 3 and tied by end of 2nd. Terrible.

[jontebond]

If hawks lose this game, I would be so pissed. Leading by 3 and tied by end of 2nd. Terrible.

Yeah, too much action in a game you have money on. If I didn't I would really enjoy it.
See if those tired legs of blues will catch them in the 3rd.

[Pikachu]

Lucky Jets pulled a W for me earlier. My bets do not do well with Overtime. I think it went 1-8 so far.

Yeah, too much action in a game you have money on. If I didn't I would really enjoy it.
See if those tired legs of blues will catch them in the 3rd.

[whareouttogetme]

Damn you got lucky with that last goal in the Jets game. Hit 2/3 bets with it, nice

[jontebond]

Damn you got lucky with that last goal in the Jets game. Hit 2/3 bets with it, nice

Yeah, but unlucky CHicago can't hold a 3 goal lead, Crawford mental collapse =)

[jontebond]

Jake Allen is stealing this game!!!

[whareouttogetme]

Yeah, but unlucky CHicago can't hold a 3 goal lead, Crawford mental collapse =)

Still, those empty netters that win your bets are so awesome lol I love them

Yeah I saw that Chicago game

10 goals in that game... then I put it on in the 3rd period and that's it... no more goals

[Pikachu]

Add that to 1-9 for my OT

Lucky Jets pulled a W for me earlier. My bets do not do well with Overtime. I think it went 1-8 so far.

[jontebond]

Did anyone saw Eric Fehr's goal, oh my god, what a move!!
Fantastic pickup by the penguins organization.

[jontebond]

Jets in Regulation (2.5u)
Jets -1.5 (1.5u)
Jets Game Over 5.5 (2u)
Blackhawks in Regulation (2u)
Blackhawks -1.5 (1.5u)
Penguins in Regulation (1.5u)
Penguins -1.5 (1u)

Got lucky in Jets game, however very unlucky in Chicago, team up 3 goals vs a tired blues team, and blues manage to win it, thanks to Jake Allen (Really solid performance coming into the game after Elliots terrible night.)
Penguins up 3 - 0 with 6 minutes left of the game, and game ended 3 - 2 so AH failed. Plus units anyways for the night, so can't complain.


Daily: 4 / 7 (+4.55 units)
YTD: 109 W, 103 L (+84.45 units) +8,845$

[Jones10]

Jets in Regulation (2.5u)
Jets -1.5 (1.5u)
Jets Game Over 5.5 (2u)
Blackhawks in Regulation (2u)
Blackhawks -1.5 (1.5u)
Penguins in Regulation (1.5u)
Penguins -1.5 (1u)

Got lucky in Jets game, however very unlucky in Chicago, team up 3 goals vs a tired blues team, and blues manage to win it, thanks to Jake Allen (Really solid performance coming into the game after Elliots terrible night.)
Penguins up 3 - 0 with 6 minutes left of the game, and game ended 3 - 2 so AH failed. Plus units anyways for the night, so can't complain.


Daily: 4 / 7 (+4.55 units)
YTD: 109 W, 103 L (+84.45 units) +8,845$

Very nice so far...keep it up

[GhostCaps]

Been silently following your picks for a while now. Awesome stuff. Gutted with the Hawks last night, lost me 15u in a Jets/Pens/Hawks/Ducks parlay!! Looking forward to seeing what you have tonight.

[Locke]

Did anyone saw Eric Fehr's goal, oh my god, what a move!!
Fantastic pickup by the penguins organization.

sick play...completely surprised me. maybe he can teach sid a thing or two about scoring in 2015/2016

[jontebond]

05/11:
First Play: Flyers @ Flames: Flyers ML (2u), In Regulation (1.5u), Flyers -1.5 (1u), Flyers TT Over 2.5 (2u)Flyers is like sore tooth, can't stay away from them, however here are the reason I like them tonight

Both team has very poor defensive play. Offensively both team has problems. Flyers more then Flames.
However this is the 11th game of Flyers, and I think the first line should break out tonight against Ramo.
The only reason I preferre Flyers is that Ramo is much worst goalie then Neuvirth and Couturier is back.

Voracek has good stats vs Flames, and like last year he's first goal will come on the 11th game of the season =)
Giroux also have decent stats vs Calgary.
Couturier is back in the lineup, so we should see better second line and PK improve drastically. He will be in second line between Read and Simmons.

[jontebond]

Colorado @ Coyotes: Colorado ML (2u), Colorado in Regulation (1u) Colorado TT Over 2.5 (2u)
Colorado has owned arizona historically. Colorado's last game I think they will gain momentum and Dutchen scored, so this team should start heating up.
Defensively they are really poor still but against Arizona that avg shots per game is worst in the league they might be able to keep the score down.
Both PP and PK is looking better. Form for Arizona is last couple of games they have looked worst then before in PK.
Smith has great stats against Colorado but he has looked shaky in the last couple of games.
Colorado got production from both first and second line last game which is always a good sign, however 3rd and 4th support is still a problem for Colorado.
They also had too many giveaway, which is something they can't keep doing. They will probably work on this and focus on keeping it down




Bruins @ Capitals: Capitals Over 2.5 TT (2u), Capitals in Regulation (1u), Capitals -1.5 (1u)
Capials have a real solid offensive/Defensive lineup.
They have had no problems scoring against a previous much tighter boston, so I don't expect them to suddenly be good defensively.
Capitals is coming off a bad game vs Rangers, where Holtby collapsed completely. However against Boston he always seem solid and he has fantastic stats vs Boston.
I can see a score of 4 - 2, 4 - 1 tonight.
Boston has a smoking hot Power play, but Capitals has one of the best PK in the league with awsome form. Boston PK is really poor, one of the worst, so might get a couple of PP goals from Capitals tonight.




Tampa Bay @ Buffalo: Tampa Bay in Regulation (2u), Tampa Bay -1.5 (1.5u), Tampa Bay Over TT 2.5 (2u)
I thought the win against Carolina would get this team moving, but they manage to lose against a very injured Detroit team. Against failing to score more then 2 goals.
Worth to mention however is that bolts was extremly unlucky in this game, hitting 3 or 4 post, they also generated a lot of goal chances.
If 2 of those goes in they win the game. But that's hockey.


The power play have at least start looking like last season and they should be able to score on the power play going against one of the worst PK team in the league.
Ullmark has been real solid, but I sense that Tampa will come out with a force tonight. He has been solid against two team Flyers, can't score for shit, and Tavares less Islanders.


so all due it's impressive the stats are missleading on how good this goalie is.


Tampa start feeling the pressure on them and with this lineup they shouldn't
have any problem scoring. Buffalo still have their first goalie Lehner injured, and key defensive defenseman Bogosian. Add Colaiacovo on this list as well.
Buffalo keeps shooting from all angels, but I think it can punich them tonight with the speedy wingers tampa have.

[Overallis38]

Tampa under

[kog1108]

Any good Books who someone from the US can use that offers regulations? Bookmaker doesn't offer regulation only in live bets, but they only allow one hockey live bet game. I think BM hates the NHL.

[jontebond]

Any good Books who someone from the US can use that offers regulations? Bookmaker doesn't offer regulation only in live bets, but they only allow one hockey live bet game. I think BM hates the NHL.

Pinnacle has regular time.

[jontebond]

What is wrong with Flyers, against failing me. They can't score, I don't know why that is, the players on their team should be able to score, arrhhh, really frustrating watching this game.

[jontebond]

What is wrong with Flyers, against failing me. They can't score, I don't know why that is, the players on their team should be able to score, arrhhh, really frustrating watching this game.

I mean Kari Ramo is one of the worst starter in the league, and they can't score on him. Trade coming up???

[jontebond]

06/11:
Flyers ML (2u)
Flyers In Regulation (1.5u)
Flyers -1.5 (1u)
Flyers TT Over 2.5 (2u)
Colorado ML (2u)
Colorado in Regulation (1u)
Colorado TT Over 2.5 (2u)
Capitals Over 2.5 TT (2u)
Capitals in Regulation (1u)
Capitals -1.5 (1u)
Tampa Bay in Regulation (2u)
Tampa Bay -1.5 (1.5u)
Tampa Bay Over TT 2.5 (2u)


Daily Stats: 6 / 13 (-0.6 units)
YTD: 115 W, 110 L (+84.25 units) +8,245$

* Flyers @ Flames: Once again the Flyers fail to generate any production against a poor defensive team, good luck, but this team is very poor. I can't see this team remain like this for much longer. I will from here on not go for a bet on Flyers until they have won 3 in a row, if that every happens this season.