CK's Carjacking the NHL Threads Leans for Friday 2/13/09

[flavo-ice]

Wings will lose as big favorite either Friday or Sunday

Friday is 3 in 4 nights at Columbus and Sunday is 4 in 6 nights vs Colorado

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hockeytown stated this angle earlier in the week. Thinking of playing the angle Fri. and Sun. unless he has backed off the original statement.

[bailey]

CK,Been making some nice change on the sp's.So I thought i'd see how plays that were close to sp's(8-,-8.5,-9)were doing.I started playing them very small(5% of what I was playing on the sp's).My hope was these would hit somewhere between 55-60%.Heres alist of plays from this Monday thru last night:
Mon- Siena -9/Loyola Md 35-28 L
Tues-Minn -9/Indiana 27-20 L
Wed-Akron -8/Ball St 34-27 L
Wed-Rhode Is.-8/St. Bonnie 34-49 L
Thurs-SanDiego -8/Loyola Mary 29-30 L
Thurs-Washington -9/Oregon St. 36-35 L 0-6 for the week

I may have missed a couple of games(I don't know where I can go to see prior 1st half lines)
Maybe I've stumbled onto a dog secret play for the first half.
Would be interested to know if you look at games close to sp lines and how they have done. Obviousy this is only 4 days and 6 games
but it may be worth watching.
There is one game tonight that fits
Harvard +8/Cornell

[TheLemonDropKid]

CK,Been making some nice change on the sp's.So I thought i'd see how plays that were close to sp's(8-,-8.5,-9)were doing.I started playing them very small(5% of what I was playing on the sp's).My hope was these would hit somewhere between 55-60%.Heres alist of plays from this Monday thru last night:
Mon- Siena -9/Loyola Md 35-28 L
Tues-Minn -9/Indiana 27-20 L
Wed-Akron -8/Ball St 34-27 L
Wed-Rhode Is.-8/St. Bonnie 34-49 L
Thurs-SanDiego -8/Loyola Mary 29-30 L
Thurs-Washington -9/Oregon St. 36-35 L 0-6 for the week

I may have missed a couple of games(I don't know where I can go to see prior 1st half lines)
Maybe I've stumbled onto a dog secret play for the first half.
Would be interested to know if you look at games close to sp lines and how they have done. Obviousy this is only 4 days and 6 games
but it may be worth watching.
There is one game tonight that fits
Harvard +8/Cornell

Very interesting Bailey......I love little treasures like this....it's like a reverse angle on the SP......that percentage is incredible.

[repski]

repski,

In wagering everything that looks easy is most often not. Villanova is the easy choice. It is obvious that the line was made to invite bettors to jump all over Villanova, but they have lost by 9 points on average in their last 2 games Morgantown.

I make it a habit to not wager with teams that have won 3 or more games in a row because the linemaker will make the necessary adjustments. With the Mountaineers losing 3 road games recently and getting beaten by double digits in their last game against Pitt, the Wildcats will get their best effort in front of a sold out home crowd tonight. Morgantown is a tough place to play because of the altitude. Here's proof. They only have three home losses this year and those were to heavyweights Pitt, UCONN and Kentucky. Other than that they have only lost 1 more home game out of thier last 20 to go 16-4 straight up at home.

They are also 4-2 ats playing against Villanova in the last 6 overall and 5-2 ats playing them at home, although some of that info can be thrown out the window because it is prehistoric. But the point is that they actually match up well with Villanova's personnel. West Virginia only gives up 55.2 points on defense at home (12th in the country)and Villanova gives up an awful 73 points per game on the road which is 227th in the country.

I'll take the home chalk in this one as it is tough as hell to win a game on the road in the Big East as the Mountaineers know oh so well. I wouldn't actually annoint the Wildacts as a better team. Put Mazzula in the lineup and the Wildcats get blown out by 15.

Very nice analysis

[jayc88]

now hes starting to spam the nhl forum , someone gotta stop this lunatic

[Axis]

now hes starting to spam the nhl forum , someone gotta stop this lunatic

How is this spam??

He makes one thread, and people post in it. If you don't like it, simply don't open the link to the thread...

Seems like a fairly simple concept to me.

[repski]

Very interesting Bailey......I love little treasures like this....it's like a reverse angle on the SP......that percentage is incredible.

It would be nice if there was a program...to backtest a system like this...like they have for stocks..

[jaymac82980]

Thanks for the info on what a grand salami is all aboot. I'm getting my hockey terminology down now! A point is really a goal. you can beat the hell out of each other and the commisioner doesn't fine you. Teeth are optional. Wayne Gretzky was great, but a real puss too. A Gordy Howe hat trick is a goal, assist, and a fight. and girls cant play because they have to change their pads after each period.

[repski]

Speaking of SP's....looks like tomorrow @ least 3
Xavier
Washington
Davidson
possibles
UAB,UTAH,UNLV,Gonz.

[shoebox]

CK,

Round one is done, I think you need to post the opening lines for round 2.

[Devon]

oh man i'm so drunk. Its 4am here, lets go hockey town and smash these books!

[jaymac82980]

will anyone be betting on nba tonight? rooks/sophs?

[ploben]

Thanks for the info on what a grand salami is all aboot. I'm getting my hockey terminology down now! A point is really a goal. you can beat the hell out of each other and the commisioner doesn't fine you. Teeth are optional. Wayne Gretzky was great, but a real puss too. A Gordy Howe hat trick is a goal, assist, and a fight. and girls cant play because they have to change their pads after each period.

AAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

This is the kind of contributions we need on this forum.

[cocknocker]

Excellent, Bailey,

I think that what you found was excellent. It is funny that you say tht because it seems like a line of 8 or 9 indicates that the linemaker has doubts that the favorite will be ahead by 10 at the break. The 9.5 and the 10 always seem to hit when there is an absence of the moneyline which is excatly what the Secret Play is. Maybe 8 and 9 are excellent target numbers for going the other way. I like this research and may have to put theory to the test tonight with Harvard and take them at that 8.

jayc88,

I have seen you around my threads an awful lot more than you have seen my on yours. It seems like your objective is not a good one for our thread. Almost as if you have a bass ackwards agenda. The problem is that guys like you would rather spite than to be a man and open up your own thread an simply run it the way that you want to run it. Which obviously you aren't capable of doing because I have a jogged my brain trying to figure out when you had one good thing to say or offered one good pick to anyone affiliated with my thread. You were so boastful about the Machine Choice a couple of weeks ago. Tell you what...why don't you go over there and give him some support instead of bothering us? It is obvious who won the Cold War. We don't need any consolation. The CK Mafia will just continue to do our thing our way. And wherever we touch down is our soil.

This thread is a player's lounge. If it looks like spam to you, don't add anything to it. You're only adding to the legacy. Solobass says it best...Success breeds contempt...

[cocknocker]

CK,

Round one is done, I think you need to post the opening lines for round 2.

Have the Round 2 matchups been set yet? I need to observe the victory margins in order to set the lines.

[jaymac82980]

ck, well said. and just to make sure this is our soil, I just pee'd over there. I claim this area.

[Axis]

All Hockey Fans Will Enjoy This Haha: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUczk8aeKdI

Florida Panthers look good tonight...Home team always does quite well between those 2 teams...

[cocknocker]

You guys all hustle on down to JohnMorr08's hockey thread. He is movin' units!

[repski]

Leaning Cornell vs Harvard

Cornell is 6-1 ATS their last 7 home games
Cornell is 5-2 ATS their last 7 league games
Harvard is 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 games overall (that's SP like)
Harvard is 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 games as underdogs
HARVARD is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

[TheLemonDropKid]

It would be nice if there was a program...to backtest a system like this...like they have for stocks..

That really would be nice Bailey.....I wonder if we have any program writers in the mafia that would be willing to put a little time into creating something like that....

[jaymac82980]

ck, are you sure JohnnyP got kicked off SBR?

[cocknocker]

I haven't seen him jaymac...

At any rate since hockeytown11 and JohnMorr08* agree, I just played

Montreal -115 ML*
Boston-110*
New York Rangers+105
Montreal-1.5 +250

I also want to know if there is a lot of mvement on the moneylies in hockey or are they pretty much set in stone? I didn't see any movement between last night and today on the lines... I know one thing it seems like guys are always sweating out those totals.... I think that i will play the sides tonight, and kick myself if the total goes over, lol!

[jaymac82980]

those totals make me sweat like mike tyson in a spelling bee.

Ck, just be careful betting the puck lines. Moneyline is one thing, but when you get into the puckline your betting on something the team doesnt care about. they want to win, they dont care about winning by 2 or more. +250 looks good, but a late game goal from the losing team can destroy that 2 point lead easily.

[jaymac82980]

and yes, there is movement in the moneylines. there is movement in the totals as well, and on the puck lines. Just like any sport.

[cocknocker]

Trust me, jaymac, although i pumped up my wagers a bit for the weekend on NHL I won't miss what I put down on the puckline for Montreal. But what got me juiced is that hockeytown and JohnMorr agreed upon the pick so, if that's the case then why not give it (the puckline) a shot and see what happens. You ain't gonna be sayin' all that if it cashes, lol! I'm a novice, I'm supposed to do stupid things. Don't you remember teaching a girlfriend how to play dominoes and then she kcks our ass the second time you play? A novice doesn't care much about the things the veterans do. If it looks good they throw some money at it. I haven't bet on hockey long enough yet to be cautious. It's wild wild west for me, homes!

[schaapattack]

Fyi nba trade

toronto gets:

Marion
banks

miami gets:

Oniel
moon

[ram1502]

I think one of the best bets of the night(along with Bruins ML and Wings O) might be Canucks/Stars O 5.5.

GF(overall) GA(overall) GF(home/away) GA(home/away) GF(last 5) GA(last 5)
Canucks 3.02 2.83 2.92 3.04 4.8 3.4
Stars 2.98 3.04 3.38 2.96 3.8 1.6

Add to this the Canucks are on the back end of b2b, where they are 5-2 O/U, while the Stars score goals in bunches at home(see 2/6 Rangers 2 @ Stars 10). Stars are 15-11 O/U @ home while Canucks are 14-11 O/U on the road.

-----> Canucks/Stars Over 5.5

EDIT: Well, the table is a little jumbled, but to make a long story short, the Canucks are averaging 4.8 goals per game in their last five, while the Stars are averaging 3.8. The Stars score 3.38 goals per game @ home, while the Canucks give up 3.04 goals per game on the road.

[shoebox]

Have the Round 2 matchups been set yet? I need to observe the victory margins in order to set the lines.

Yeah there's a thread in the handicapping contest forum, along with a bracket.

[peterpan19]

ck
so do you put the same amount on the nhl games and the cbb games tonight ?

[djpremier36]

will anyone be betting on nba tonight? rooks/sophs?

I'm on the Rookies tonight! (even though Soph's have won 7 str8)

Rookies starting backcourt is Rose and Mayo..Sophomore starting backcourt is Stuckey and Brooks

Rookies will have Gordon, Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez, Beasley, and Lopez all average double digit scoring not to much mention old man Oden

The sophomores will have Kevin Durant and not too much else besides Thorton, Young and Horford.

I think the Rooks take this one outright ..but I'll gladly take +5.5!

Also leaning towards the under of 249.5....only once in the last 4 years has the total go over 250

2005:133-106
2006:106-96
2007:155-114(cp3 year)
2008:136-109

[ANDYW15]

i'll be sitting back this weekend getting ready for the baseball season. will prob tail captain cocknocker on w. virg - and of course any secret plays for the weekend. good luck all.

Dex, any futures you like. Team season wins and the like?

[bailey]

CK,Been making some nice change on the sp's.So I thought i'd see how plays that were close to sp's(8-,-8.5,-9)were doing.I started playing them very small(5% of what I was playing on the sp's).My hope was these would hit somewhere between 55-60%.Heres alist of plays from this Monday thru last night:
Mon- Siena -9/Loyola Md 35-28 L
Tues-Minn -9/Indiana 27-20 L
Wed-Akron -8/Ball St 34-27 L
Wed-Rhode Is.-8/St. Bonnie 34-49 L
Thurs-SanDiego -8/Loyola Mary 29-30 L
Thurs-Washington -9/Oregon St. 36-35 L 0-6 for the week

I may have missed a couple of games(I don't know where I can go to see prior 1st half lines)
Maybe I've stumbled onto a dog secret play for the first half.
Would be interested to know if you look at games close to sp lines and how they have done. Obviousy this is only 4 days and 6 games
but it may be worth watching.
There is one game tonight that fits
Harvard +8/Cornell

Ok it was a pain in the ass but by using Vegasinsider line movements I was able to get 1st half lines:
From Feb 1- Feb 8 !st half dogs of 8,8.5 or 9 were 10-5-1 giving these dogs a record of 16-5-1 76% since the beginning of the month.I will continue to backtest this as I get time but it is time consuming as you have to click line movement on a game by game basis.I have a hand written list of all 22 games with the lines.I will go back thru January and update record as I go along.If its alright with ck I will begin posting these plays in the ck mafia thread as sp dog plays.

[repski]

CK,Been making some nice change on the sp's.So I thought i'd see how plays that were close to sp's(8-,-8.5,-9)were doing.I started playing them very small(5% of what I was playing on the sp's).My hope was these would hit somewhere between 55-60%.Heres alist of plays from this Monday thru last night:
Mon- Siena -9/Loyola Md 35-28 L
Tues-Minn -9/Indiana 27-20 L
Wed-Akron -8/Ball St 34-27 L
Wed-Rhode Is.-8/St. Bonnie 34-49 L
Thurs-SanDiego -8/Loyola Mary 29-30 L
Thurs-Washington -9/Oregon St. 36-35 L 0-6 for the week

I may have missed a couple of games(I don't know where I can go to see prior 1st half lines)
Maybe I've stumbled onto a dog secret play for the first half.
Would be interested to know if you look at games close to sp lines and how they have done. Obviousy this is only 4 days and 6 games
but it may be worth watching.
There is one game tonight that fits
Harvard +8/Cornell

Ok it was a pain in the ass but by using Vegasinsider line movements I was able to get 1st half lines:
From Feb 1- Feb 8 !st half dogs of 8,8.5 or 9 were 10-5-1 giving these dogs a record of 16-5-1 76% since the beginning of the month.I will continue to backtest this as I get time but it is time consuming as you have to click line movement on a game by game basis.I have a hand written list of all 22 games with the lines.I will go back thru January and update record as I go along.If its alright with ck I will begin posting these plays in the ck mafia thread as sp dog plays.

that's alot of work....

[TheLemonDropKid]

CK,Been making some nice change on the sp's.So I thought i'd see how plays that were close to sp's(8-,-8.5,-9)were doing.I started playing them very small(5% of what I was playing on the sp's).My hope was these would hit somewhere between 55-60%.Heres alist of plays from this Monday thru last night:
Mon- Siena -9/Loyola Md 35-28 L
Tues-Minn -9/Indiana 27-20 L
Wed-Akron -8/Ball St 34-27 L
Wed-Rhode Is.-8/St. Bonnie 34-49 L
Thurs-SanDiego -8/Loyola Mary 29-30 L
Thurs-Washington -9/Oregon St. 36-35 L 0-6 for the week

I may have missed a couple of games(I don't know where I can go to see prior 1st half lines)
Maybe I've stumbled onto a dog secret play for the first half.
Would be interested to know if you look at games close to sp lines and how they have done. Obviousy this is only 4 days and 6 games
but it may be worth watching.
There is one game tonight that fits
Harvard +8/Cornell

Ok it was a pain in the ass but by using Vegasinsider line movements I was able to get 1st half lines:
From Feb 1- Feb 8 !st half dogs of 8,8.5 or 9 were 10-5-1 giving these dogs a record of 16-5-1 76% since the beginning of the month.I will continue to backtest this as I get time but it is time consuming as you have to click line movement on a game by game basis.I have a hand written list of all 22 games with the lines.I will go back thru January and update record as I go along.If its alright with ck I will begin posting these plays in the ck mafia thread as sp dog plays.

Damn man......that's great! Between these plays and the CK SPs and Hockeytown's plays we should be doing pretty damn good.

[ANDYW15]

I'm on the Rookies tonight! (even though Soph's have won 7 str8)

Rookies starting backcourt is Rose and Mayo..Sophomore starting backcourt is Stuckey and Brooks

Rookies will have Gordon, Westbrook, Rudy Fernandez, Beasley, and Lopez all average double digit scoring not to much mention old man Oden

The sophomores will have Kevin Durant and not too much else besides Thorton, Young and Horford.

I think the Rooks take this one outright ..but I'll gladly take +5.5!

Also leaning towards the under of 249.5....only once in the last 4 years has the total go over 250

2005:133-106
2006:106-96
2007:155-114(cp3 year)
2008:136-109

Damn, I wasn't even going to touch this game but your writeup is leaning towards putting a small wager on it, in fact I will.