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Wednesday February 27, 2013
Game: Detroit Redwings @ Los Angeles Kings
My Pick: Los Angeles Kings -165
Grade: 5*
I don't do write-ups, and this isn't one either, it's more of a game preview. Only one play tonight and it's a max play on one of the hottest teams in the NHL, the Los Angeles Kings. Last time the Kings and the Wings met was on Feb. 10 @ Joe Louis Arena. LA thoroughly dominated the game, yet suffered a heartbreaking final seconds defeat in a game that saw Jimmy Howard stop 38 shots in one of the best performances of his entire life. Since then the Kings have been playing like their playoff form, recently destroying the Anaheim Ducks in their last game, and tonight close out their homestand against an inconsistent and vulnerable Detroit team.
Max plays are 7-1 (88%) +28.25
I put my faith in Jonathan Quick and the Kings to keep this train rolling! Good luck LA, avenge the earlier loss and take care of business.Comment -
on this as well. actually like the PL here. GLComment -
Important note about tonights game: It has been reported Jonathan Bernier will be the starting netminder for the Los Angeles Kings. It doesn't affect my personal grade, but it's something worth pointing out to people looking at the game. Good luck Bernier! Good luck Kings. Should be a nice game, here's hoping the Kings continue to light the lamp in an impressive victory.Comment -
0-1 -8.25
Bernier's flub ended up being the difference on the scoresheet. Actually, in addition to that, it just happened to be the worst Kings game of the season. Max play drops to 7-2(78%) +20.00. A whopping 8 units is pretty steep, but luckily last week's success eases the blow, along with the fact there's still a couple of months of hockey left. We move on to tomorrow.
Thursday action I'm liking Dallas, Chicago, and Minnesota. If Detroit can replicate tonights performance, they have a nice chance to beat San Jose too.Comment -
EDIT - well I'll be damned, it actually worked..
Kings tie the game 1-1Comment -
..and now the Kings take the lead 2-1.
Let's see if the Kings can hold the lead. 4 mins left in the game.Comment -
Thursday February 28, 2013 YTD: +43.01
All for 1*
Chicago Blackhawks -110 (@St. Louis)
Dallas Stars -140 (vs Edmonton)
Minnesota Wild +115 (@Phoenix)
Closing out the month with three games. Nothing too exciting tonight. Had a successful month of February in all sports. I'm due for a big losing night, in a weird way I'm hoping it's tonight. I'm setting my sights on March, it won't begin till the weekend for me as I will take the day off tomorrow. Best of luck to the forum!Comment -
Saturday March 2, 2013 YTD: +43.01
I'm due for a big loss any day now, can this be the day? Notice I picked all road teams. It just happened that way. Is this bad? Could be a burial tonight! Whatever, up 40+ units, that's a nice cushion, I'm well ahead of my projection, one awful day won't ruin anything.
All plays are 1*
Tampa Bay Lightning +170 (@Boston Bruins)
New Jersey Devils -110 (@Buffalo Sabres)
Washington Capitals +115 (@Winnipeg Jets)
Pittsburgh Penguins -105 (@Montreal Canadiens)
Anaheim Ducks -105 (@Phoenix Coyotes)
Los Angeles Kings +110 (@Vancouver Canucks)
Over/Under
Washington Capitals @ Winnipeg Jets OVER 5.5 -105Comment -
The day finally arrived, it's about damn time. Odd that I feel relieved more than anything. I'm not entitled to winning either, for all I know this could the beginning of a long losing streak.
2-5 -3.20
YTD: +39.81
Looking ahead
Will be on the Detroit Redwings tomorrow. It's my most anticipated game this week in general, as a hockey fan. Could be my only game, as I will be focusing on the coming week ahead.Comment -
Sunday March 3, 2013 YTD: +39.81
1*
Detroit Redwings -105 (vs Chicago)
Over/Under
Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Redwings UNDER 5.5 -135
More games to be added later.Comment -
..cont'd Sunday March 3, 2013
All plays are 1*
Dallas Stars -110 (vs STL)
Ottawa Senators +120 (@NYI)
Over/Under
Ottawa Senators @ New York Islander OVER 5.5 +120
Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers UNDER 5.5 -125
Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins OVER 5 -135
Edmonton Oilers @ Minnesota Wild UNDER 5 -125
Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames UNDER 5 +115Comment -
sunday march 3, 2013
detroit redwings -105 (vs chi) loss -1.05
dallas stars -110 (vs stl) win +1.00
ottawa senators +120 (@nyi) loss -1.00
over/under
chicago blackhawks @ detroit redwings under 5.5 -135 win +1.00
ottawa senators @ new york islander over 5.5 +120 loss -1.00
carolina hurricanes @ florida panthers under 5.5 -125 win +1.00
montreal canadiens @ boston bruins over 5 -135 win +1.00
edmonton oilers @ minnesota wild under 5 -125 loss -1.25
vancouver canucks @ calgary flames under 5 +115 loss -1.00
4-5 -1.30
Two losing days in a row to close out week 6. I went back and double checked the numbers this week and somehow still came out positive. Guess it's better than nothing. The next post has the update..Comment -
Week 6 (Feb.25-Mar.3)
1*
Moneylines: 10-10 -1.45
Totals: 8-9 -1.35
5*
Moneylines: 1-0 +5.00
Week 6 Total: +2.20
Year-to-Date
1*
ML: 40-42 -8.00 (This really disappoints me, may have to lay off this shit)
Puckline: 2-1 +3.05
Totals: 32-24-3 +6.10
Parlays: 1-4 -1.34
2*
ML: 11-5 +10.10
3*
ML: 0-1 -3.75
5*
ML: 8-1 +33.25
YTD: +39.41
The month of March will be a tough grind, so with the way things are going, it might be the right time to lay off my standard/daily moneyline picks. I'll focus more on Totals, as well try to identify some 2x and 5x plays, basically I will be very selective this month.
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Monday March 4, 2013 YTD: +39.41 The "Don't tail me" edition
Currently in a two day skid. Hopefully I can start this week on a good note.
Over/Under
New Jersey Devils @ Toronto Maple Leafs UNDER 5 +115
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 6 -115
Anaheim Ducks @ Phoenix Coyotes OVER 5 -140
Nashville Predators @ Los Angeles Kings UNDER 5 -145 2xComment -
..Monday March 4, 2-13 cont'd
Added: Phoenix Coyotes -110 (vs Anaheim Ducks)
Was going to go with Nashville as well, but Jonathan Bernier has their number, more confident in the Under more than anything.Comment -
Yesterday 3-2 -1.0
How 'bout that Kings game last night! Let's see, 1-0 after two periods of play, then 5 goals in the 3rd. That's right ladies and gentleman, LA and Nashville combined for 5 goals in 1 period!
Tuesday March 5, 2013 The "Epic Burial" Edition
Game: Tampa Bay Lightning @ New Jersey Devils
My Pick: New Jersey Devils -125
Grade: 1*
Game: Montreal Canadiens @ New York Islander
My Pick: Montreal Canadiens -125
Grade: 1*
Game: Colorado Avalanche @ Detroit Redwings
My Pick: Detroit Redwings -165
Grade: 5*
Game: San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks
My Pick: Vancouver Canucks -140
Grade: 1*
Game: St. Louis Blues @ Los Angeles Kings
My Pick: Los Angeles Kings -130
Grade: 1*
Over/Under
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New Jersey Devils UNDER 5.5 -110
Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers OVER 5.5 +125
Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5 -115
San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks UNDER 5 -135Comment -
3-5-1 +1.10
Postgame thoughts:
Came out positive, which is fine and all, but I beat myself today. What could have been a nice +5.00 day with the Detroit win, I had action on other games and it cost me. Specifically the standard/daily Moneyline 1* plays, which has been pure trash this season. Need to take my own advice that I mentioned on Sunday; cut back on action because March will be a tough grind, and focus on finding those 2* and 5* plays, which was the case with the Colorado-Detroit matchup.
When it comes to Totals, I'm confident in my selections, I take time to go through them using relevant statistics and trends, and other factors that I use to help make my selections. Felt comfortable tonight but a couple didn't go my way. I'm still mindfucked from the Nashville-LA game lastnight, think about it - 5 goals in the 3rd period alone? Last two days have been an OVER machine.
In closing, be mindful this month, the next four weeks will be tough.Comment -
Wednesday March 6, 2013 "He shoots he scores!" Edition
Over/Under
Colorado Avalanche @ Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 -140
San Jose Sharks @ Calgary Flames OVER 5 -130
Phoenix Coyotes @ Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5.5 -135
Pre-game Thoughts(and probably wrong on all of them):
-Chicago's streak likely lives on another game. I have them winning 4-1 tonight, perhaps a play on the puck line? Dunno, I usually stay away from the PL no matter what, but it's tempting. Maybe Colorado pulls off this upset in a high scoring affair?
-San Jose-Calgary is a 4-2 game, interestingly enough it's Calgary that comes out ahead. Not a fan of the Flames though, not when Kipper is still out. Still like the OVER in this one. NOTE: It looks like Kiprusoff is scheduled to return tonight. Proceed at your own risk!
-Phoenix@Anaheim: ran through a few things, and it's looks like a 2-2 type of game. I was contemplating fading myself in this spot because the OVER has been easily hitting between the two, but the dynamics have changed since the game will be at Anaheim this time. With the way they go hard at each other, there's so many scoring chances at both ends. Anaheim coach, Bruce Boudreau, introduced the same uptempo style he used in Washington, and as a result Anaheim is among the elite in scoring. I don't think special teams will be a factor tonight, so expect a lot of EV action. Good luck to the goalies, have a strong night. Like I said, it looks like a 2-2 game.Comment -
4-1 final in Calgary you pushed sir
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hey tango, just curious how you picked the under in the ducks/coyotes game. i had the over bc of backup goalies and this was clearly faulty thinkingComment -
I go through some statistical factors, some advanced, some just basic stats you can find at NHL. Also add some intangible factors that I try to implement.
Although Anaheim is a force on offence, they're actually mid-bottom tier when scoring at home, (they were around 19th ranked last I checked). They are also stronger defensively, top 10, at home. So already the dynamics have drastically changed, as the exact opposite can be applied when playing on the road - elite in scoring and among the worst defensively.
You can literally copy and paste the above paragraph and change the name to Phoenix. The Yotes do not score at a high rate when on the road, yet they are top 10 defensively. The opposite can be found at home; no trouble scoring(4th), but they also give up a lot of goals(24th).
Both teams do not get any penalty calls; a lot of Even Strength(5 on 5) action, so special teams were not going to be a factor. In fact, only 4 penalties were called in the game.
Phoenix went out of character the last couple of meetings, playing right into the hands of Anaheim, falling into a run & gun-style of pace, which isn't Dave Tippet style of hockey, it only increases the Ducks chances of winning the game.
So with that in mind, I anticipated proper adjustments for the road game, especially with backup Labarbera in net for the 'Yotes. Whenever 'barbs gets the call, the team tightens up the defence and plays a lot more structured. This was going to be your classic, big bodied, Pacific Division grind-it-out games, one of those 2-1 types.
I confirmed all of this by simulating the game three times in NHL 13. Nah man, but everything I looked at, and used, was pointing to a low scoring affair. I had this game set at 4, so with the official line at 5.5, I thought the UNDER was a good pick.
Final score: 2-0 Anaheim
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really helpful post, thanks so much for taking the timeComment -
Tango who do you like in the Pens/Flyers matchupComment -
There is an edge to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
But with the history between them, it could go either way. which is why I won't be playing it, it really could be a coin flip. Pittsburgh is the best in scoring on the road, and top 5 in general during Even Strength play. While Philly is mid-tier, both at home and in general. The Pens rank top 3 in shots, while Philly is only mid-tier when defending it, so Bryz is going to have a busy night. Special teams will play a large factor, expect calls on both sides, with the edge to Philly. They both rank high in PP% at home/road. Pace is always fast and swift, can be chaotic at times.
It's a coin flip man, but if I had to go with someone, I'd with Sid and Geno, and I don't like Bryz in these games. Fleury isn't reliable either. So I'm just going to grab my popcorn and enjoy the game!Comment -
Regarding: Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia
There's also the vengeance factor for the Pens. But if Philly is forever destined to continue their stingy play against Pittsburgh, then take the Home dog. But if you think the better team wins, you're going to have to pay a slight premium.
And speaking of paying a premium. I'm going big with the Detroit Redwings at home against the Edmonton Oilers!
Thursday March 7, 2013 "SQUARE" edition
SQUARE
Definition: In the sports gambling world, "square" refers to an unsophisticated bettor, who will generally lose money over the course of the season.
Examples:
Sportsbooks always enjoy taking wagers from squares.
Game: Vancouver Canucks @Columbus Blue Jackets
My Pick: Vancouver Canucks -165
Grade: 2*
Game: Edmonton Oilers @ Detroit Redwings
My Pick: Detroit Redwings -170
Grade: 5*
Game: St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes
My Pick: St. Louis Blues -115
Grade: 1*
Game: Dallas Stars @ Los Angeles Kings
My Pick: Los Angeles Kings
Grade: 2*
Pre-game thoughts
Another max play(9-1 +38.25), on the Detroit Redwings. Getting nervous with these ones now, especially when the price is high, a total of 8.5 units on the line. But hey, I've made a ton with them this season, only suffering one loss, though that game in particular wasn't really a qualified 5*, I only did it as a gamble, and it burned me. If I lose, hey, I'm not stressing, the mental aspect is what beats you. It's all mental!
Also have two 2* plays on the card: 11-5 +10.10
This could be a bloody aftermath!Comment -
what makes the redwings a 5*? may tail ya on that
and do you have confidence in them getting it done in regulation? If so you could get the line at -106 vs -170Comment -
^^
I won't give away my secrets. But I do use a select few of relevant trends, along with a set of advanced statistics. Than I factor in recent performances and also the home stand/road trip factors. Detroit is closing a homestand, while Oilers are in the middle of a gruelling 9 game road trip because of a Curling tournament being held in Edmonton. That's right, a Curling tournament. Basically everything lines up for a big Detroit win, I'm not just blindly betting a big favourite, I put the work in to make sure it's the RIGHT favorite. Gotta be selective with these. It's worth a unit a for people that want to tail. Personally, I bet big with these in particular, it's how I get ahead, I'm not shy taking these risks. It's definitely worth a single unit for people considering to tail. If it loses, it's a legitimate big upset.
Cheers! Going to dinner! Let's hope I'm up at the end of the night. Good luck to the forum!Comment -
why not take the -.5 in regulation for a better line? do you prefer the, i guess, "safetynet" of the ML incase it goes to OT?Comment -
The safety net, personally. In fact, a couple of the 5* this season went to OT. All my work is done with regulation in mind. I've been burned in the past, so I do go with the ML.Comment
