DG's 2013 Thread

[hockey216]

post #5386 i mean

if you think home ice means as much in hockey as it does in basketball or football, you don't watch that much hockey.

aren't you the same guy who said it was 100% certainty that LA Kings would not make playoffs?

[DennisGreen]

Here come da Hawks!

[hockey216]

detroit melting faster than wicked witch of west. when chicago was down 3-1 i was going to bet them to come back and win the series. i dont know why i didn't.

[DennisGreen]

detroit melting faster than wicked witch of west. when chicago was down 3-1 i was going to bet them to come back and win the series. i dont know why i didn't.

Yeah I almost did after their game 5 win wish I would have

Hopefully they are only -150 next game somehow then it's pound time.

[DennisGreen]

LIVE BET: CHI/DET Over 6.5 (-140) [05:55]

[retard]

LIVE BET: CHI/DET Over 6.5 (-140) [05:55]

[PuckIt]

Yeah I almost did after their game 5 win wish I would have

Hopefully they are only -150 next game somehow then it's pound time.

I'm gonna predict around -180. Blah. I won't be backing the Wings in this game I know that.

[DennisGreen]

I'm gonna predict around -180. Blah. I won't be backing the Wings in this game I know that.

Yeah I see the Hawks winning by 2+ honestly now. Might swallow the chalk and pound it

[DennisGreen]

2-1 +$200 on the day.

Likely will be on the Sharks for 1-2 units tomorrow.

[Vegas39]

2-1 +$200 on the day.

Likely will be on the Sharks for 1-2 units tomorrow.

[DennisGreen]

I know sorry buddy

The stats are definitely on your Kings side though.

[skyscrapers]

I picked LA in 7 in the playoff contest but I'm gonna roll with SJ as a hedge so either way I win now !!

[hockey216]

pittsburgh is going to beat the bruins in series. get your series $ in now at only -185 cheap cheap cheap pittsburgh is lock to win series. pittsburgh is stacked. bruins cannot beat pittsburgh.

[hockey216]

DG i get 900 if bruins win east, 7000 if they win cup.

how should i hedge? throw 500 to win about 275 on pittsburgh? 1000 to win about 550?

in 2011 i let the whole 7000 ride on them winning cup.

[DennisGreen]

pittsburgh is going to beat the bruins in series. get your series $ in now at only -185 cheap cheap cheap pittsburgh is lock to win series. pittsburgh is stacked. bruins cannot beat pittsburgh.

[DennisGreen]

DG i get 900 if bruins win east, 7000 if they win cup.

how should i hedge? throw 500 to win about 275 on pittsburgh? 1000 to win about 550?

in 2011 i let the whole 7000 ride on them winning cup.

Hmm interesting scenario with a lot of potential cheddar coming your way. I don't hedge that often and if I do it's mostly for small amounts.

I would definitely hedge though that's quite a bit of money. If anyone else is a pro hedger feel free to chime in and help my boy out

[DennisGreen]

2-1 +$200 on the day.

OVERALL PLAYOFF RECORD
49-57-6 -$14.50

MONEYLINES: 9-5 +$1300
LIVE BETS: 18-15 +$277.50
PUCKLINES: 1-0 +$60
GAME PROPS: 0-1 -$50
REGULATION: 0-1 -$50
TWO TEAMERS: 1-2 -$99
TOTALS: 3-4-2 -$338
PLAYER PROPS: 12-16-4 -$350
1ST PERIOD: 5-11 -$351
TEAM TOTALS: 0-2 -$414

[Brian5dg]

This old dog is looking fwd to learning a few new triX.

[DennisGreen]

I picked LA in 7 in the playoff contest but I'm gonna roll with SJ as a hedge so either way I win now !!

[DennisGreen]

Tuesday Play

SJ (+131)

Really have no idea if the line will keep dropping for SJ or go up so gonna wait and see what happens overnight and early morning tomorrow. May end up with only a unit on the Sharks due to the home ice dominance in this series.

[swordsandtequila]

Against you on this one DG, LA's closing them out tonight. My wallet and my playoff pool depend on it

[a4u2fear]

sure the value might be in SJ DG, but from what i've watched in this series, i've seen the better team in LA. SJ has scraped by a couple of victories at home, none more than a goal, and the Kings have shown in LA that they can dominate SJ when they want.

even in game 6, with SJ up 2, i watched the Kings calmly continue their game and aggressive forecheck only to hit 2-3 posts on the PP and then finally get within 1.

and i can't trust Thornton and company to get done what they haven't done in so long. They have always been a good team, but never good enough to pull through adversity and make it to the top.

LA for me good luck.

[k13]

DG i get 900 if bruins win east, 7000 if they win cup.

how should i hedge? throw 500 to win about 275 on pittsburgh? 1000 to win about 550?

in 2011 i let the whole 7000 ride on them winning cup.

Boston vs Chicago
Boston vs San Jose

Cannot happen. Bet accordingly.

[fitguy67]

re: hedging a nicely-profitable position

to me: bet enough on the reverse position to win EXACTLY enough to cover the $ risked on the currently-profitable position...no more/no less

rationale: hedging is "disaster insurance"...not an attempt to "win no matter what happens"...

after hedging there should only be two possible outcomes:

the currently-profitable position pays out the same as it would if you hadn't hedged MINUS the relatively-small insurance fee (on the losing reverse position)

OR...

you end up perfectly FLAT...disaster happened...your bet that was way up lost....BUT the winnings on your small-risk/big-payout reverse-bet hedge covered everything you originally put up...

when disaster strikes (a bad beat to what looks like now CAN'T lose)...you'll be glad you had the insurance cuz as pissed off as you are about the badbeat...u'll feel smart cuz there's been no financial loss becuz of u buying the insurance...

if disaster doesn't strike...u'r payout will only be diminished by a small percentage (cuz u got the reverse position at such good odds cuz ur original bet looked so "lock-ish" when you insured it)

______
summary: best to think of hedging as disaster insurance--covering your original stake only

[fitguy67]

sure the value might be in SJ DG, but from what i've watched in this series, i've seen the better team in LA. SJ has scraped by a couple of victories at home, none more than a goal, and the Kings have shown in LA that they can dominate SJ when they want.

even in game 6, with SJ up 2, i watched the Kings calmly continue their game and aggressive forecheck only to hit 2-3 posts on the PP and then finally get within 1.

and i can't trust Thornton and company to get done what they haven't done in so long. They have always been a good team, but never good enough to pull through adversity and make it to the top.

LA for me good luck.

good post...

[Boxing Champ]

KINGS ALL the WAY!!!!

Here are some Trends for YOUS.....

1) San Jose is 0-9 in series in which it lost the first two games.

2) Los Angeles has allowed fewer than four goals in 32 consecutive playoff games.

3) The Kings, who are attempting to become the first team to win back-to-back championships since the 1997-98 Detroit Red Wings, are a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs and have WON 13 straight on home ice since falling to Vancouver on March 23.

[matt1216]

Bruins vs sharks finals book it

[Dollars2Donuts]

re: hedging a nicely-profitable position

to me: bet enough on the reverse position to win EXACTLY enough to cover the $ risked on the currently-profitable position...no more/no less

rationale: hedging is "disaster insurance"...not an attempt to "win no matter what happens"...

after hedging there should only be two possible outcomes:

the currently-profitable position pays out the same as it would if you hadn't hedged MINUS the relatively-small insurance fee (on the losing reverse position)

OR...

you end up perfectly FLAT...disaster happened...your bet that was way up lost....BUT the winnings on your small-risk/big-payout reverse-bet hedge covered everything you originally put up...

when disaster strikes (a bad beat to what looks like now CAN'T lose)...you'll be glad you had the insurance cuz as pissed off as you are about the badbeat...u'll feel smart cuz there's been no financial loss becuz of u buying the insurance...

if disaster doesn't strike...u'r payout will only be diminished by a small percentage (cuz u got the reverse position at such good odds cuz ur original bet looked so "lock-ish" when you insured it)

______
summary: best to think of hedging as disaster insurance--covering your original stake only

I completely agree with fitguy's first idea. I just did that for my Bruins series , when after game 2 I bet enough on the Rangers to cover my initial $600. Of course at the time I was worried about a Rangers comeback, or I would have let it roll. Turns put it was a waste of $171.



Cheerio

[DennisGreen]

Good hedging posts boys

Fit guy hit the nail on the head by calling it "disaster insurance."

I agree with that assessment. That's how I hedge.

Also yes I know all signs point to the Kings tonight but game 7s are strange sometimes. Remember the Caps/Rangers series? Home team won the first six then the Rangers thumped the Caps 5-0 in game 7. Weird shit can happen! I know you can't really compare the Caps to the Kings though. I think San Jose finds a way tonight.

[Vegas39]

After tonight Dennis you can still say Vancouver last team to win at staples

[Dollars2Donuts]

GL my friend. I have quite a bit listed on my thread on the Kings, but I don't post my other account....and I am in balls deep with LA. If you win it I will take solace in the fact that you nailed it.

[DennisGreen]

After tonight Dennis you can still say Vancouver last team to win at staples

Beauty!

Although I'd rather keep the three year streak of being eliminated by the eventual cup champs alive (CHI,BOS,LA)

[PuckIt]

GL my friend. I have quite a bit listed on my thread on the Kings, but I don't post my other account....and I am in balls deep with LA. If you win it I will take solace in the fact that you nailed it.

I'm with you on Kings! Both Dennis and I have write-ups on nhlpredictions.com, but we're on opposite sides. Should be a good one!

[DennisGreen]

GL my friend. I have quite a bit listed on my thread on the Kings, but I don't post my other account....and I am in balls deep with LA. If you win it I will take solace in the fact that you nailed it.

I hope you win honestly I will be fine with the $100 loss

Just taking a small shot here on instinct.

[DennisGreen]

I'm with you on Kings! Both Dennis and I have write-ups on nhlpredictions.com, but we're on opposite sides. Should be a good one!

I'm 1-0 in head to head so far!

There's a strong chance we will be tied after tonight though