bet over on seguin shots should be better. guy shoots 10x more than everyone on team (161 shots versus 93 kreji, 79 luic, 114 horton, 91 marchand), but is inconsistent scoring goals. dont go over on pts go over on just shots. he can score goals at times because he shoots 1million shots, but he can go cold too. see what the o/u is on shots. he avged 3.35/game during season, 4.5/game during playoffs so far. if total on seguin shots is 3, take over. you figure to at least push. i'd take over 3 as long as -135 or less. you will probably win or push 60% of time, which should show profit at -135 or less. if you take -135 or less at over3 shots there should be value. If its 3.5, you'd have to get +money to have value since only 50%chance of getting 3.35 (less than 3.5). even when he isnt scoring hes loading up shots. over shots prop better than points/goals bet. got 18shots in 4games so far with 0goals. see what kind of total shot line you get at your book. if its 3.5 or its juiced heavily at 3 maybe lay off. it probably will be because oddsmakers aren't stupid.(?) Surely they wouldn't be silly enough to make stupid probability mistakes that would let a mathematician clean them out. I don't think so. but are they? check your lines. i'll do the math. i doubt any o/u on shots or points is +EV based on season stats. books aren't stupid. would way too easy. or is it? check your lines.
btw ive never been sold on seguin. he's got talent, but kid thinks hes hero. skates into zone 1-on-3 and tries to be wayne gretzky trying do deke through 3 guys. what always happens? defensemen both cave in, hit him down to ice, take puck. kid needs to play the SYSTEM. stop trying to be the hero. playing the hero doesn't win. the SYSTEM wins.
