Is This Prop Exploitable?

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  • jolmscheid
    Restricted User
    • 02-20-10
    • 3256

    #1
    Is This Prop Exploitable?
    I am looking at the Prop of playing NHL games to land on an ODD total (Ex. 4-3 or 3-2, etc)

    I know this happens in the majority of games as any game that ends in a one goal margin is a guaranteed odd number...

    How does one figure out what odds is considered +EV? For example, if the odds are -250 for this prop, how would one determine if there is a way to exploit this?


    Thanks for any help..
  • mathdotcom
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-24-08
    • 11689

    #2
    Look historically at games with totals close to the game you're considering
    Comment
    • jolmscheid
      Restricted User
      • 02-20-10
      • 3256

      #3
      Thanks mathy...I would give 100 points for anyone who can help me out with this for totals of 5, 5.5, and 6 over the past 3+ seasons...
      Comment
      • mathdotcom
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-24-08
        • 11689

        #4
        Easier first step is to shop around and see if there's any variance in the price (where sufficient variance is considered vs the juice)

        If there is that's a good sign to continue

        If it's -250/+210, -260/+220, -255/+225 everywhere that is a bad sign
        Comment
        • jolmscheid
          Restricted User
          • 02-20-10
          • 3256

          #5
          Thanks mathy...is that a bad sign for some particular reason? I appreciate the help..
          Comment
          • mathdotcom
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-24-08
            • 11689

            #6
            It means you could do a whole bunch of work and find out the fair line is -235/+235 and you cant get it anywhere
            Comment
            • jolmscheid
              Restricted User
              • 02-20-10
              • 3256

              #7
              Ha Ha...gotcha....Ok for example...I have found a place where it is -310 and a place where it is -250, so that is a pretty large gap...

              But obviously I need to find out what % ODD totals occur at totals of 5, 5.5, and 6...

              So if anyone could help me out with this, I will give 100 points.
              Comment
              • mathdotcom
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 03-24-08
                • 11689

                #8
                From all-star break til end of regular season in 2011,

                29.87% were even

                Break even odds around +240.

                This is unconditional on the total

                Given the stanley cup final total of 4.5/5, you probably need better than +240 to nail it although in my sample, if you look at the 150 games with totals of 5 or lower, 32.6% of games ended with even totals.

                I'd probably nail +280 or better with some conviction
                Comment
                • a4u2fear
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 01-29-10
                  • 8147

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jolmscheid
                  Thanks mathy...I would give 100 points for anyone who can help me out with this for totals of 5, 5.5, and 6 over the past 3+ seasons...
                  I have all of 2011 regular season lines and totals if you need my help, pm me
                  Comment
                  • jolmscheid
                    Restricted User
                    • 02-20-10
                    • 3256

                    #10
                    Originally posted by mathdotcom
                    From all-star break til end of regular season in 2011,

                    29.87% were even

                    Break even odds around +240.

                    This is unconditional on the total

                    Given the stanley cup final total of 4.5/5, you probably need better than +240 to nail it although in my sample, if you look at the 150 games with totals of 5 or lower, 32.6% of games ended with even totals.

                    I'd probably nail +280 or better with some conviction
                    Thanks Mathy, but I am looking for ODD totals...aren't the odds you gave me for the game to land on an EVEN total? I really appreciate the help man...
                    Comment
                    • sharpcat
                      Restricted User
                      • 12-19-09
                      • 4516

                      #11
                      Originally posted by jolmscheid
                      Thanks Mathy, but I am looking for ODD totals...aren't the odds you gave me for the game to land on an EVEN total? I really appreciate the help man...
                      WTF,

                      First you ask someone to do your homework for you, and than you can not even convert the probability that he gave you for even goals to odd???

                      Comment
                      • jolmscheid
                        Restricted User
                        • 02-20-10
                        • 3256

                        #12
                        Lol..you're right sharp...thanks for pointing that out....I am very thankful for the help from mathy..
                        Comment
                        • jolmscheid
                          Restricted User
                          • 02-20-10
                          • 3256

                          #13
                          Thanks again for all the help guys...I don't think this prop is exploitable at -250 odds...
                          Comment
                          • a4u2fear
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-29-10
                            • 8147

                            #14
                            Originally posted by jolmscheid
                            Thanks again for all the help guys...I don't think this prop is exploitable at -250 odds...
                            it's a nightly -250?
                            Comment
                            • jolmscheid
                              Restricted User
                              • 02-20-10
                              • 3256

                              #15
                              Yea it is -250...so based on the stats from this past year, odd number goals hit at 71%...and that is about breakeven at -250 odds...I was trying to think of some way to exploit it like parlaying them and hedging on the Even, etc...but I just can't figure out any way to do it..
                              Comment
                              • jolmscheid
                                Restricted User
                                • 02-20-10
                                • 3256

                                #16
                                I just think there has to be some way to profit from it knowing that the ODD goals WILL hit at a 70% clip as this was reflected over a huge sample size...
                                Comment
                                • a4u2fear
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 01-29-10
                                  • 8147

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                  Yea it is -250...so based on the stats from this past year, odd number goals hit at 71%...and that is about breakeven at -250 odds...I was trying to think of some way to exploit it like parlaying them and hedging on the Even, etc...but I just can't figure out any way to do it..
                                  Vegas (with millions on the line), is and will most likely always be smarter than us.
                                  Comment
                                  • durito
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-03-06
                                    • 13173

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by a4u2fear
                                    Vegas (with millions on the line), is and will most likely always be smarter than us.
                                    good luck finding hockey props in vegas
                                    Comment
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