Is This Prop Exploitable?

[jolmscheid]

I am looking at the Prop of playing NHL games to land on an ODD total (Ex. 4-3 or 3-2, etc)

I know this happens in the majority of games as any game that ends in a one goal margin is a guaranteed odd number...

How does one figure out what odds is considered +EV? For example, if the odds are -250 for this prop, how would one determine if there is a way to exploit this?


Thanks for any help..

[mathdotcom]

Look historically at games with totals close to the game you're considering

[jolmscheid]

Thanks mathy...I would give 100 points for anyone who can help me out with this for totals of 5, 5.5, and 6 over the past 3+ seasons...

[mathdotcom]

Easier first step is to shop around and see if there's any variance in the price (where sufficient variance is considered vs the juice)

If there is that's a good sign to continue

If it's -250/+210, -260/+220, -255/+225 everywhere that is a bad sign

[jolmscheid]

Thanks mathy...is that a bad sign for some particular reason? I appreciate the help..

[mathdotcom]

It means you could do a whole bunch of work and find out the fair line is -235/+235 and you cant get it anywhere

[jolmscheid]

Ha Ha...gotcha....Ok for example...I have found a place where it is -310 and a place where it is -250, so that is a pretty large gap...

But obviously I need to find out what % ODD totals occur at totals of 5, 5.5, and 6...

So if anyone could help me out with this, I will give 100 points.

[mathdotcom]

From all-star break til end of regular season in 2011,

29.87% were even

Break even odds around +240.

This is unconditional on the total

Given the stanley cup final total of 4.5/5, you probably need better than +240 to nail it although in my sample, if you look at the 150 games with totals of 5 or lower, 32.6% of games ended with even totals.

I'd probably nail +280 or better with some conviction

[a4u2fear]

Thanks mathy...I would give 100 points for anyone who can help me out with this for totals of 5, 5.5, and 6 over the past 3+ seasons...

I have all of 2011 regular season lines and totals if you need my help, pm me

[jolmscheid]

From all-star break til end of regular season in 2011,

29.87% were even

Break even odds around +240.

This is unconditional on the total

Given the stanley cup final total of 4.5/5, you probably need better than +240 to nail it although in my sample, if you look at the 150 games with totals of 5 or lower, 32.6% of games ended with even totals.

I'd probably nail +280 or better with some conviction

Thanks Mathy, but I am looking for ODD totals...aren't the odds you gave me for the game to land on an EVEN total? I really appreciate the help man...

[sharpcat]

Thanks Mathy, but I am looking for ODD totals...aren't the odds you gave me for the game to land on an EVEN total? I really appreciate the help man...

WTF,

First you ask someone to do your homework for you, and than you can not even convert the probability that he gave you for even goals to odd???

[jolmscheid]

Lol..you're right sharp...thanks for pointing that out....I am very thankful for the help from mathy..

[jolmscheid]

Thanks again for all the help guys...I don't think this prop is exploitable at -250 odds...

[a4u2fear]

Thanks again for all the help guys...I don't think this prop is exploitable at -250 odds...

it's a nightly -250?

[jolmscheid]

Yea it is -250...so based on the stats from this past year, odd number goals hit at 71%...and that is about breakeven at -250 odds...I was trying to think of some way to exploit it like parlaying them and hedging on the Even, etc...but I just can't figure out any way to do it..

[jolmscheid]

I just think there has to be some way to profit from it knowing that the ODD goals WILL hit at a 70% clip as this was reflected over a huge sample size...

[a4u2fear]

Yea it is -250...so based on the stats from this past year, odd number goals hit at 71%...and that is about breakeven at -250 odds...I was trying to think of some way to exploit it like parlaying them and hedging on the Even, etc...but I just can't figure out any way to do it..

Vegas (with millions on the line), is and will most likely always be smarter than us.

[durito]

Vegas (with millions on the line), is and will most likely always be smarter than us.

good luck finding hockey props in vegas