Buying points when playing football.

[jayfly]

When is the correct time to buy 1/2 pt or 1 pt when it comes to football. Had S Car today -3, should I have bought them down to 2 1/2?

[subs]

how much u paying for the points?

[wantitall4moi]

never

[LLXC]

Use Half Point Calculator in the Tools

[That Foreign Guy]

If it's a cent a half point then always, if it's 50c then never. Otherwise somewhere in between.

[affest]

I am blurred in here, someone enlighten me please

[subs]

please, don't rub our noses in ur ignorance (like that 1). use the search button, read for a few weeks, do some !%#! work then if u have a specific question that isn't really answered (not very likely) or u can't find an answer (much more likely) then maybe post a question...

but not like "hey i'm an idiot tell me everything" or "why would u need programming skills"

come on man...

[wantitall4moi]

you should never h ave to buy a half point or a point anywhere because more than likely it was or might be available atthe number you want.

if a game opened at -4.5 and moved to -3 (not likely but possible) then wanting to buy the dog to +3.5 means you should probably stop gambling. If you want to buy the fav to -2.5 then that MIGHT be a different story, but still inadvisable based on what they would want to charge you.

9 times out of 10 youre going to find the number you want on the team you want at some point. If you dont know the number you want until it is too late, then like I suggest stop gambling or just do it for fun in which case getting or losing a point here or there isnt going to destroy you.

But I can tell you this any tool you find inst going to be accurate, it will based on how books charge for it, and getting price points from books is like asking a car dealership to quote a part for your car rather than getting it somewhere reasonably priced.

[durito]

never

i think you have passed bigdaddyQH, at least he was fun to laugh at.

[Pancho sanza]

never

Not even for 1 cent?

Idiot

[wantitall4moi]

Not even for 1 cent?

Idiot

not when, as I said, you can get them for free.

A game opens -5 -101 at Pinnacle and stays there for 3 or 4 days. then it bounces around, and then on game day it is -6.5 -105. Why on earth would you buy it to -5.5 and pay -106 (to use your 1cent analogy)? youre still half a point and 5 cents worse than you could have had for more than half a week.

[durito]

make up some more bull shit please

[CarpeDime]

not when, as I said, you can get them for free.

A game opens -5 -101 at Pinnacle and stays there for 3 or 4 days. then it bounces around, and then on game day it is -6.5 -105. Why on earth would you buy it to -5.5 and pay -106 (to use your 1cent analogy)? youre still half a point and 5 cents worse than you could have had for more than half a week.

QED

one day it will all be votre

[jimkotecki]

I usually buy the points and I usually lose anyway. Probably not the best person to give advice.

[Pancho sanza]

not when, as I said, you can get them for free.

A game opens -5 -101 at Pinnacle and stays there for 3 or 4 days. then it bounces around, and then on game day it is -6.5 -105. Why on earth would you buy it to -5.5 and pay -106 (to use your 1cent analogy)? youre still half a point and 5 cents worse than you could have had for more than half a week.

Brilliant, now all you have to do is figure out which games will move 1.5 points from the opener.

[jetsjets1028]

J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!! WHAT A COMEBACK WOW dallas 1st loss ever up 14+... jets displayed hearts of champions and should be facing eagles in superbowl as ive said all along.. but next week at jacksonville for once needs to be easy win... something jets almost never do

[MonkeyF0cker]

Brilliant, now all you have to do is figure out which games will move 1.5 points from the opener.

C'mon, Pancho. Keep up. He already knows this. That's how he made MILLIONS.

I made MILLIONS, scalping and arbitraging baseball. Never even had to pick a winner. All I had to do was but the right side first and wait for it to move.

I'm sure he has a perfectly logical explanation that transcends our simple mathematically-oriented minds as to why he'd rather arb -5 -101 than -4.5 -102 against the +6.5 closer.

[wantitall4moi]

Brilliant, now all you have to do is figure out which games will move 1.5 points from the opener.

so you chase steam? or cant make a decision on a game until the line moves? Then you guys arent nearly as bright as you think you are.

if you can bet a line BEFORE it moves you wont ever need to buy anything.

And to address the guy above, thats why guys can in fact make millions because they have the ability to bet a line before it gets bet into a hundred times. And it has ZERO to do with math and a lot to do with just having some experience.

But I am sure you will still have a stupid come back that makes no sense.

[Justin7]

so you chase steam? or cant make a decision on a game until the line moves? Then you guys arent nearly as bright as you think you are.

if you can bet a line BEFORE it moves you wont ever need to buy anything.

Wantitall4moi,

Lay it out. How do you identify games that will move?

[MonkeyF0cker]

so you chase steam? or cant make a decision on a game until the line moves? Then you guys arent nearly as bright as you think you are.

if you can bet a line BEFORE it moves you wont ever need to buy anything.

And to address the guy above, thats why guys can in fact make millions because they have the ability to bet a line before it gets bet into a hundred times. And it has ZERO to do with math and a lot to do with just having some experience.

But I am sure you will still have a stupid come back that makes no sense.

Can you explain to me why (in your own example) you wouldn't buy to -4.5 -102 rather than bet -5 -101 at the open? How about if I were to say that a side that closes at -6.5 is expected to win by 5 about 8% of the time?

Thanks, millionaire.

[Justin7]

Can you explain to me why (in your own example) you wouldn't buy to -4.5 -102 rather than bet -5 -101 at the open? How about if I were to say that a side that closes at -6.5 is expected to win by 5 about 8% of the time?

Thanks, millionaire.

Are you suggesting that the 5 pushes 8% of the time in this case? It's a no-brainer to play -4.5 -102 over -5 -101, but I'm not sure where you got your 8% push number.

[MonkeyF0cker]

C'mon, Justin. Catch up. It's a hypothetical. Just like his ENTIRE example.

[That Foreign Guy]

not when, as I said, you can get them for free. A game opens -5 -101 at Pinnacle and stays there for 3 or 4 days. then it bounces around, and then on game day it is -6.5 -105. Why on earth would you buy it to -5.5 and pay -106 (to use your 1cent analogy)? youre still half a point and 5 cents worse than you could have had for more than half a week.

Brilliant, now all you have to do is figure out which games will move 1.5 points from the opener.

No, all he has to do is step in to his time machine and press GO and then go back to Tuesday.

[wantitall4moi]

for one thing I dont mess with too many spreads, there isnt any advantage in it. because they dont hit both ways enough to make it worth while. Beyond a few total subsets betting a point handicap is a bad proposition all the way around.

The only way I look at spreads is when I try and link a ML to them, but for the most part even that is difficult because most books dont put up the ML until the lines have had ample time to take some money, therefore making any real value in them obsolete. And also showing that books are smart enough not to post a 'virgin' ML ,where they can get hurt a lot more due to buy backs, and arent really afraid to have a spread move 2 or more points and have that bought back.

I just answered the relevant question. Which was when to buy points in the NFL? Which is never. Although never is pretty definitive. Because basically when you might have a valid reason to buy a half point the price on it would be too punishing. A game +2.5, yeah buying to +3 is a valid reason simply because 16% of ALL NFL games have a game result of a FG differential. Now in regards to betting, those percentages are all over the place. But I look at overall results not results dictated by an arbitrary number a book maker put up and people bet into. So if every game has a 16% 'chance' of being a 3 point loss then +3 is a good starting point. But does that mean 2.5 to 3 is worth 16 cents? Some people are willing to pay a lot more. And books charge more.

Then people start breaking it down into exact situations, like a team favored by wins by 3 XX% of time. But is that BECAUSE they were lined -3 or because 3 is the most 'probable' outcome. And thus it just happened to hit. I now probability guys can probably run it and see if the results outweigh probability, which I am sure it will. But by how much?

As in 5423 total games have been played, of those 874 have been 3 point differentials. Of those 5423 games 836 of them had a team lined -3. Of those 836 games lined -3 the team favored by 3 won by exactly 3 78 times.

We will discount line moves or when a line might have been -2.5 or -3.5 and just go with a straight forward example. Can anything be determined by that data? As in are the games lined -3 'better' than overall expectation?


You guys like math there is one right up your ally.

As for monkeys question. I used a generic database and got 199 games that have close -6.5 since 1994. I also used the Cadillac DB and found that since 2004 (most complete year I can go back to) 178 lines have had -6.5 posted at some point. First example of -6.5 closers, of those games 5 ended in a 5 point differential, So even a dummy like me can see that 5 divided by 199 is 2.5%. So you might need a new database or make up a more realistic number. Now as for the 2004 where we looked at line moves and changes. Of the 178 games that had a -6.5 available at one time, 6 of them had a 5 point differential. so 6/178 is 3.3% . similar results for similar sample sizes. But still the sample sizes although with a good amount of years are pretty small in terms of total games played.

Take that info and those results anyway you want to, but theyre valid and accurate and not made up or hypothetical.

[donjuan]

How often do you have to buy a new laptop due to water damage from excessive drooling?

[bztips]

Please stop responding to this clown, I can't take it any more.

He's obviously a member of the doofus crowd that believes in their ability to "pick winners", as opposed to getting value.

[CHUBNUT]

Wantitallformoi is right, you lot are all stuck in your equations to see any sense. Push percentages are only a fact as a whole not on a personal level. Paying minus vig on your bets is bad enough but buying is just crazy. Books love it knowing the majority of so called sharps on forums are buying off numbers, it just gives them a great opportunity to maximise their take.

[subs]

Wantitallformoi is right, you lot are all stuck in your equations to see any sense. Push percentages are only a fact as a whole not on a personal level. Paying minus vig on your bets is bad enough but buying is just crazy. Books love it knowing the majority of so called sharps on forums are buying off numbers, it just gives them a great opportunity to maximise their take.

can u explain what that means please? i guess i'm stuck in my push charts and i can't get out...

[GoIrish682]

I want to know what bill the cop has to say about this@

[That Foreign Guy]

Wantitallformoi is right, you lot are all stuck in your equations to see any sense. Push percentages are only a fact as a whole not on a personal level. Paying minus vig on your bets is bad enough but buying is just crazy. Books love it knowing the majority of so called sharps on forums are buying off numbers, it just gives them a great opportunity to maximise their take.

That's because the majority of "sharps" on forums are paying too much to buy off numbers.

If you genuinely believe buying off numbers is always crazy I have a proposition for you. Let me buy half a point off the closing line in the NFL for 1 cent and I will bet every game every week with you. I am willing to bet I will be profitable even with flat betting at -110 (which are both far more crazy than buying off a number when the price is right.

[wantitall4moi]

That's because the majority of "sharps" on forums are paying too much to buy off numbers.

If you genuinely believe buying off numbers is always crazy I have a proposition for you. Let me buy half a point off the closing line in the NFL for 1 cent and I will bet every game every week with you. I am willing to bet I will be profitable even with flat betting at -110 (which are both far more crazy than buying off a number when the price is right.

I checked the numbers. Buying a half point or even a full point of a closer is going to give you around a 1% difference compared to best available. In other words if the game closes -7 you buy to 7.5 pr 6.5 depending on what side you had. There is a high likelihood that 6.5 or 7.5 were available anyway. When they WEREN'T then the difference is 1.3% from pushes to wins, and .63% losses to pushes. That is basically saying that by buying to the absolute best number possible, and that bought number was better than anything available anywhere at any time, that was the difference in results.

So take that for what it is worth as well. But it is based on final scores and the available numbers at 15 to 17 books. so it is also possible a rogue book may have had those numbers available at one time or another, I just dont have results for them.

Now I could break down certain point spreads and maybe see some difference but since you said every game that is what I looked at.

[Romanov]

Half point calculator says HI!

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

[ForgetWallStreet]

I checked the numbers. Buying a half point or even a full point of a closer is going to give you around a 1% difference compared to best available. In other words if the game closes -7 you buy to 7.5 pr 6.5 depending on what side you had. There is a high likelihood that 6.5 or 7.5 were available anyway.

Breaking News: It's not 1985 anymore.

[That Foreign Guy]

I checked the numbers. Buying a half point or even a full point of a closer is going to give you around a 1% difference compared to best available. In other words if the game closes -7 you buy to 7.5 pr 6.5 depending on what side you had. There is a high likelihood that 6.5 or 7.5 were available anyway. When they WEREN'T then the difference is 1.3% from pushes to wins, and .63% losses to pushes. That is basically saying that by buying to the absolute best number possible, and that bought number was better than anything available anywhere at any time, that was the difference in results. So take that for what it is worth as well. But it is based on final scores and the available numbers at 15 to 17 books. so it is also possible a rogue book may have had those numbers available at one time or another, I just dont have results for them. Now I could break down certain point spreads and maybe see some difference but since you said every game that is what I looked at.

Oh, I am a long time believer in line shopping (and in not betting closers if I can avoid it) and your numbers reinforce that.

I'm just lost in my formulae and believe that sometimes it's worth buying if the price is right. Obviously the best price is free (if all books were same price, no special offers, no liquidity management concerns, no book failure risk) but if free isn't available that's not always reason to reject buying.

[wantitall4moi]

Oh, I am a long time believer in line shopping (and in not betting closers if I can avoid it) and your numbers reinforce that.

I'm just lost in my formulae and believe that sometimes it's worth buying if the price is right. Obviously the best price is free (if all books were same price, no special offers, no liquidity management concerns, no book failure risk) but if free isn't available that's not always reason to reject buying.

well I am not a chaser I bet into lines as soon as they come out for the most part. Then I look to do what I do.

I think that is why so many people have the mentality they do these days. Guys scared to death to make a bet UNTIL a move happens then they piss and moan about getting a 'bad' number.

Its the tout mentality. You dont want the picks from the tout, you really couldnt care less, UNLESS they agree with you. Basically people want reassurances and affirmations that what theyre doing is right. Thats why most people are doomed. They just roll along and go with the crowd. The worst part is some guys have the ability to find info or use info they have that would work, but until they get a wiggle in aline they dont trust themselves or their material enough to use it.

I am very confident that what I do works, I dont need a dozen people to agree with me to tell me that. And the irony is I put up my stuff, so that people can check it out for themselves. All i get are stupid remarks and comments, but I have never seen one person that could show those results werent accurate. At least in the context proffered.

I KNOW what I do works, I also know that chasing steam or following some 'sharp' guy MIGHT work, but more than likely it will kill you eventually. Since most guys just do this for fun it really doesnt matter, but for guys actually looking to make some money out of it it does.