Series Price Calculations

[d2bets]

Yeah, I am thinking that if the Bulls wins Game 1, then Miami will actually be a small favorite in Chicago in Game 2. If Miami wins Game 1, then it reconciles pretty closely if you leave the rest of the series as you priced it.

Miami lost and they are not (currently) a small favorite for Game 2. They are dogs, right about the same as Game 1. Like I said, yeah if the Bulls had won a nailbiter, then sure, but the way this game unfolded told us something more about this matchup.

[LT Profits]

Miami lost and they are not (currently) a small favorite for Game 2. They are dogs, right about the same as Game 1. Like I said, yeah if the Bulls had won a nailbiter, then sure, but the way this game unfolded told us something more about this matchup.

The key word there is "currently".

The Bulls closed at -2 in Game 1 at most places, -2.5 at Pinny, they won by 20 and yet only opened -1.5 in Game 2. Heat could be favored by tip.

Not that it matters, the Bulls were the value play before the series, which you and I agreed on. Even if you use Chicago -125 in Game 2 of your projections in post #1, it still comes out to series price of just +128 holding the other games constant. Maybe Heat will be more than -5 at home? Or maybe Pinny was banking on Heat winning one in Chicago when setting series price?

[d2bets]

The key word there is "currently".

The Bulls closed at -2 in Game 1 at most places, -2.5 at Pinny, they won by 20 and yet only opened -1.5 in Game 2. Heat could be favored by tip.

Not that it matters, the Bulls were the value play before the series, which you and I agreed on. Even if you use Chicago -125 in Game 2 of your projections in post #1, it still comes out to series price of just +128 holding the other games constant. Maybe Heat will be more than -5 at home? Or maybe Pinny was banking on Heat winning one in Chicago when setting series price?

Maybe, but I think a public premium was built into the series line, which even based on real projected lines should have been more along the lines of -160/+140. Almost regardless what happen in Game 2, I find it hard to believe that Miami is going to be favored even by 6 points. Either way I think it'll be more like 5.

[JustinBieber]

LT profits what did you think was a fair line for this series? Did you think pinnacle was off at -180/+160~ ?

[LT Profits]

LT profits what did you think was a fair line for this series? Did you think pinnacle was off at -180/+160~ ?

Hell yes, I came up with Bulls +125ish

[JustinBieber]

Same as me, I really don't like betting into Pinnacles markets especially if they have large limits. Why was this so far off? I am a fairly big believer in market effciency and cannot understand why this was.

[d2bets]

Same as me, I really don't like betting into Pinnacles markets especially if they have large limits. Why was this so far off? I am a fairly big believer in market effciency and cannot understand why this was.

Has nothing to do with Pinnacle specifically, all of the books had similar odds. Actually, Pinnacle's line tended to be lower than others. They were hanging either +162 or +166 for a large portion of the time, while others had +170.

[JustinBieber]

Yes but +166 is still +EV allegedly.

[d2bets]

The key word there is "currently".

The Bulls closed at -2 in Game 1 at most places, -2.5 at Pinny, they won by 20 and yet only opened -1.5 in Game 2. Heat could be favored by tip.

Not that it matters, the Bulls were the value play before the series, which you and I agreed on. Even if you use Chicago -125 in Game 2 of your projections in post #1, it still comes out to series price of just +128 holding the other games constant. Maybe Heat will be more than -5 at home? Or maybe Pinny was banking on Heat winning one in Chicago when setting series price?

Up to +2 now, basically identical to Game 1. I highly doubt that Miami will become the favorite in this game.

[the-phenomenal-1]

chicago

chicago wins in seven unless the bulls win in miami and its bulls in 6

[d2bets]

chicago wins in seven unless the bulls win in miami and its bulls in 6

I think 5. Bulls go up 2-0 here next game. Then they steal one of two in Miami and close it out in Game 5 at home. If they don't do it in 5 then they do it in 7. I think 6 is the least likely. Hard to win that closeout game on the road.

[smoke a bowl]

Same as me, I really don't like betting into Pinnacles markets especially if they have large limits. Why was this so far off? I am a fairly big believer in market effciency and cannot understand why this was.

It will all make sense when you see the game 3 line (i still predict 6,5/7) however i may look like a fool if the Bulls look as good in game 2 as they did in game 1 (i believe the Bulls played way over heir heads in game 1).

[d2bets]

It will all make sense when you see the game 3 line (i still predict 6,5/7) however i may look like a fool if the Bulls look as good in game 2 as they did in game 1 (i believe the Bulls played way over heir heads in game 1).

I would bet a very large sum that you will never see a 7-110 anywhere for any game in this series. I believe 6 is the max, but more likely it will be right around 5, maybe a 5.5.

[smoke a bowl]

I would bet a very large sum that you will never see a 7-110 anywhere for any game in this series. I believe 6 is the max, but more likely it will be right around 5, maybe a 5.5.

Today's line moving to 2.5 makes a case that 7 will be a stretch for game 3.




i guess the Bulls impressed the hell out of the market in game 1 because normally the Heat would have been +1 ish in game 2 after a game 1 loss as a 2 pt dog. Long story short i made some pretty bad bets pre-series it seems. Oh well, i've outrun worse than this before.

[BediMindtricks]

Bulls may have started the underdogs but they are looking great so far.

[tim0402]

how can we take smoke a bowl serious with that name lol.. seems like a sharp kid.

[LT Profits]

Up to +2 now, basically identical to Game 1. I highly doubt that Miami will become the favorite in this game.

Actually went up to 2.5, but that only proves further how wacky this series price was.

[d2bets]

+6+100 in Game 3. Based on this, using the calculator, I figured a no-vig line of Miami -230. So I'm guessing the series line will be like -250/+210. Look right?

[smgalleg]

what was dallas originally for a 4-0 sweep?

[JustinBieber]

I got -/+220 d2bets. Pinnacle slightly differs from this though. I would certainly trust their line over mine.

[smoke a bowl]

Pinny has the adjusted series price at Miami -215/+193. Therefore anybody who bet the Bulls preseries in the +175 range did a ton better than the people who bet the Heat preseries at -180ish. Another words -215 on the Heat after getting the split is a good bit better than laying -180 pre-series before the split. I honestly thought that with the game 1 line being solid 2 that the Heat would be closer to 7 when they played at home justifying my -180 on the Heat preseries. However I think the Bulls gained a ton of stock in game 1 judging by the game 2 line being 2.5 as apposed to 1 or pickem which would normally be the case after a heat game 1 loss. Long story short is i think d2bets had the right idea about betting the bulls preseries as it turns out.

[d2bets]

And it looks like I was right about Heat -5 and ML -220 from Game 3. I shoulda jumped on +6 right away. Shame on me.

[sweethook]

miami and points .500 ?

[dialup_king]

That was basically what I thought, but I cannot reconcile that with the apparent predicted series price from Pinnacle. Just doesn't mesh.

at one point bulls were -2 for game 2, and novig ml was ~-121. Game 1 novig was less than -120 ml. Bulls may have been way undervalued in the spread/moneyline market, but Pinnacle series price and individual projected game moneylines weren't too far off.