Correlated Parlay

**SparJMU** · 11-20-10, 01:28 AM

Boise fails again. Now 13-13 after the Alabama and Boise games.

**scdavis0** · 11-20-10, 02:09 AM

Isn't 13-13 pretty good when you are getting paid 2.6 to 1 ?

**Poogs** · 11-20-10, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Boise state fails yet again. I am now 9-10 on the year. Down nearly $2,000. Seriously doubting this concept at this point.

How is that possible? You know parlays pay off 2.6 to 1 one right? I dont think youre doing it right...

**mminkovski** · 11-21-10, 12:29 AM

He bets both sides (dog+under and fav+over). Payout is like 1.5 to 1 so you need way more than 50% success rate to break even.

**scdavis0** · 11-21-10, 01:55 AM

in that case he needs 55.55%

**LegitBet** · 11-21-10, 03:27 AM

So interesting
Been through just what op is experiencing
It can seem like the emperor of CP's is naked!

**Poogs** · 11-21-10, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by mminkovski

He bets both sides (dog+under and fav+over). Payout is like 1.5 to 1 so you need way more than 50% success rate to break even.

What planet am I on??

**Pancho sanza** · 11-21-10, 10:25 AM

@ 2.6-1 its -125 betting both sides, need to hit .556 to break even.

**SparJMU** · 11-21-10, 11:42 AM

Breakeven is 55.5%. I went 2-4 this weekend, bringing my year to date total to 14-16 on the year, and have lost a ton of money.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 11-21-10, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Breakeven is 55.5%. I went 2-4 this weekend, bringing my year to date total to 14-16 on the year, and have lost a ton of money.

I lost my last local doing it this year because I blew him out every weekend. You're doing something wrong.

**donjuan** · 11-21-10, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Breakeven is 55.5%. I went 2-4 this weekend, bringing my year to date total to 14-16 on the year, and have lost a ton of money.

I don't think you're doing these correctly.

**subs** · 11-21-10, 08:10 PM

are you doing fav/over and dog/under when spread over total > 50%.

right? must be just bad luck there buddy. hope that it turns around for you.

**RickySteve** · 11-21-10, 08:23 PM

Let me know if you'd like to start booking the other side of these losing plays.

**donjuan** · 11-21-10, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

@ 2.6-1 its -125 betting both sides, need to hit .556 to break even.

That's a strange way to record keep, particularly since he was not betting both sides in the beginning.

**SparJMU** · 11-22-10, 05:01 PM

Hey guys, sorry if there is any confusion. Since I began playing both sides of each game (Fav/Over greater than 45% and Underdog/under greater than 45%) I am 14 - 16. I play all games at closing lines. I only play games with correlation greater than 45%. I bet larger on games the larger the correlation. It is possible that when I first started this I was only picking the top 3 each week so I may have missed out on some wins, but the odds would tell you picking the highest correlations should lead to a strong win %.

Needing 55.5% to breakeven, I am currently hitting 47% and I am down a ton. Unfortunately I don't have a clean spreadsheet tracking from start to finish, but here are my most recent games. I only have one side written down, but I am betting both.

November 18 - 20 (2-4)
Alabama v. Georgia St.Boise -30.5 Fresno, 66.5Hawaii -30 SJS, 60Texas -21.5 Fla Atl, 42BYU -30 N. Mexico, 52Nevada -38 N. Mexico St, 58

November 13 (3-3)
Arkansas -28.5, Over 60SD. St +28, Under 53.5Idaho, UnderNebraska -35, Over 61New Mexico +34, Under 56UL Monroe +33, Under 47

November 6 (0-2)
Oregon -38 Washington Over 68
Ole Miss -30 UL Laf Over 62.5

October 30 (0-3)
Boise St. -37 LA Tech, Over 65.5
Temple -29.5 Akron, Over 50
TCU -35 UNLV, Over 57

That is 5-12 combined in the last 4 weeks.

**SparJMU** · 11-22-10, 05:08 PM

And although I don't have everything written down, I recall starting strong and going 2-1 for four consecutive weeks. If this is the case, it brings me to 13-16, which is one game off from what I said originally.

So anyway the point of all of this is to document exactly what I played and the fact that although I started out strong, I have paid my bookies back every penny plus much much more. If someone can tell me that I am doing something wrong, I have to admit I would be shocked and embarrassed, but I would also appreciate knowing. However I am pretty sure that I am doing nothing wrong

**subs** · 11-22-10, 05:15 PM

sorry to hear about your losses buddy. i hope that it is just a matter of time until you absolutely crush them with a nice fat winning run.

Doubt is a pain too lonely to know that faith is his twin brother.
Kahlil Gibran

**SparJMU** · 11-28-10, 11:30 AM

Very nice 3-1 weekend with Memphis, Hawaii, and TCU winning. Missouri was the only loss.

Now 16-17 on the year.

**Bean** · 11-30-10, 11:41 AM

Sounds like you're doing it right, though your accounting is confusing to me. For example, if you bet both sides of 6 games (12 parley bets), and won one bet on two games while losing both sides of the other four, I *think* you'd call that 2-4. I'd call it 2-10. Under my accounting, I'd need to hit 27-28% to break even, you'd have to hit 55%+. I shop for lines, bet one parley at one shop and the other side at another shop, so occasionally win or push a middle. My accounting takes that into account.

Having said all that...sounds like you're just having a bad streak! If you're still losing after placing 100 or 200 or 500 pairs of bets, it would be more cause for alarm. +EV doesn't mean you'll always win! This is a textbook case for good money management, don't bet too big even when you've got a nice edge.

Bon Chance!

**A's Fan** · 12-04-10, 05:40 AM

I've been making the same bets since around same time,seems like were just on a bad run of variance, and unforunately season coming to an end so no more oppurtunities until next year really.

**LegitBet** · 12-04-10, 06:52 AM

So what's the final verdict?

**jbrent95** · 12-04-10, 10:38 AM

My local also takes correlated parlays, and it's been a tough year for me too. I stopped taking Boise several weeks ago as they rarely score in the 2nd half.

**Wulfman14** · 12-04-10, 11:29 AM

you are not allowed to do correlated parlays online but you can tease spreads and totals of the same game.

**LegitBet** · 12-05-10, 03:14 AM

Looking to hear about ur other action

**Bean** · 12-05-10, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Wulfman14

you are not allowed to do correlated parlays online but you can tease spreads and totals of the same game.

Wulfman (or anybody else), how does EV compare for a sides/totals correlated parley vs. teasing the same lines?

**SparJMU** · 12-07-10, 09:45 AM

Bean, we are definitely doing the same thing, I am just stating my accounting differently.

Well this is likely my final post for the year as the college football regular season is over and there won't be any bowl opportunities. I went 1-1 in the final week. Obviously Boise lost yet again, but Hawaii covered. I wish I had followed my own advice and stopped betting Boise, but I didn't want to stray from the proven system. For the entire season I finished 17-18, losing quite a bit of money. I varied my bets from time to time, but if I had been betting $300 a side ($600 per game) on every single game, I would have finished down $2,640. I did bet the stronger correlations heavier than plays in the 45% - 50% range, but -$2,640 paints a pretty accurate picture of my losses.

Just goes to show that even the "free money" techniques you read about can lose significantly in the short run.

**spot picker** · 12-07-10, 11:24 AM

I promise you they will take your money.If u win they wont pay,if you lose they wont say nothing.YOU LOSE NO MATTER WHAT.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 12-07-10, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Bean, we are definitely doing the same thing, I am just stating my accounting differently. Well this is likely my final post for the year as the college football regular season is over and there won't be any bowl opportunities. I went 1-1 in the final week. Obviously Boise lost yet again, but Hawaii covered. I wish I had followed my own advice and stopped betting Boise, but I didn't want to stray from the proven system. For the entire season I finished 17-18, losing quite a bit of money. I varied my bets from time to time, but if I had been betting $300 a side ($600 per game) on every single game, I would have finished down $2,640. I did bet the stronger correlations heavier than plays in the 45% - 50% range, but -$2,640 paints a pretty accurate picture of my losses. Just goes to show that even the "free money" techniques you read about can lose significantly in the short run.

No, they don't. It was a blood bath for my guy for the first 8 weeks. He shut me down the end of October because of it. I tweaked the plays a little, but it shouldn't have mattered that much for you.

**SparJMU** · 12-20-10, 01:36 PM

Blue I am not sure what you are saying here besides that you won early in the season. Unfortunately I wasn't playing correlated parlays early in the season, and if you scroll up you can see my results from the back end of the season in which I played nearly every single game higher than 45% correlation and went 17-18 in that time period.

My short term results: 35 games, 70 plays, -$2,640.

**Dex17** · 12-23-10, 09:45 PM

Wow, finally an intelligent discussion. I guess it's because it's a more challenging topic so you don't have the people that just say "don't bet against Manning" or "Team A will not cover against Team B because Team B played them toughly last year".

**Poogs** · 12-23-10, 11:07 PM

Be happy you're losing at the beginning. Let me get in on these and Ill show you exactly how to do them.

**LegitBet** · 12-24-10, 01:40 PM

any other sports fair well with this dog/under ratio?

**A's Fan** · 12-24-10, 07:18 PM

hockey i believe, and sometimes baseball.

**Jankar** · 12-25-10, 04:53 PM

I think I will bet to the both sides !

**hoffman** · 01-07-11, 10:27 PM

yeah, i myself prefer to risk a half of money on each of the 2 single bets more than playing on both of sides.

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

Create a scale.

Fair point on betting with an individual, don't play both sides.

Yes it is still OK to just play the one side but here's something you can do if you can't parlay the other side offshore or anywhere else.

Find a low juice book, pinnacle or matchbook is your best bet, and bet the other sides individually sports arbitrage

Example

Osu -30/over 46 with local

Pinnacle

Dog +30
under 46

Bet these at pinnacle as 2 straight bets.

This allows you to bet more on the parlay since you reduce your variance.

I would say if you can get these 2 sides at lower vig than what you bet the Fav/over with the local, then bet them in equivalent amounts up to the total risked on the parlay, so if you have OSU/Over for $100, risk $50 on each of the 2 single bets.

Use about 5 cents better as a minimum, otherwise pass.

There are also times when you'll be able to scratch out an extra half point, say for example you have an out that has dog at +31 and the under at 47, you're golden when this is the case.