Betting 4 A Living

[truebluebear]

people watching games usually have an illusion of control
they somehow think that the angles their one eyes see will be able to beat the combined wisdom and watching hours of millions that hammer the line into place

whatever you've seen is almost always incorporated into the line plus X number of additional things seen by everyone else. People watching with our Kaaaaaaaaaaahuman brains, which evolved in simpler establishing patterns to live times, end up over-laying what they think are unique patterns to give themselves what they perceive of as an edge.

My best results are in sports I never watch and hardly understand even.

OKaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyy - now in laymans' terms please Peregrine !!!!! no nvmnd , tell you what you go to your church and I'll go to mine , I'll watch the games (Knowledge is power ) Good luck men !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[illfuuptn]

people watching games usually have an illusion of control
they somehow think that the angles their one eyes see will be able to beat the combined wisdom and watching hours of millions that hammer the line into place

whatever you've seen is almost always incorporated into the line plus X number of additional things seen by everyone else. People watching with our human brains, which evolved in simpler establishing patterns to live times, end up over-laying what they think are unique patterns to give themselves what they perceive of as an edge.

My best results are in sports I never watch and hardly understand even.

you can't just lump all game-watchers into the same category. You can't deny that a smart bettor with models as his backbone will have a greater advantage if he also watches the games.

-Say a college basketball game has team A +7 and team B -7. In the first half, team A defends team B very well to the point where team B should be shooting around 25%. But team B runs really hot and shoots 40% which is what they were originally expected to shoot. Team A is down 9 at halftime. The sportsbooks throw up a standard 2nd half line for this obscure college game. Team B -3.5. Having watched the game, you know that team A is getting tremendous value here. If your models managed to pick up on the intricacies of their defense and not just standard stats like "contested shots" then color me shocked.

-Or it could be as simple as: you're watching a handful of MLB games and suddenly in one of those games a major player gets hurt rather significantly. You know this player's impact based on your models and you know that the equity of the player missing the next game a high percentage of the time makes the other team a +ev bet at current odds. You bet on the other team for the next day's game within 15 seconds before the line can be changed.


-Aside from the above example, I must say that I can't think of another situation in MLB where watching the games has an impact on your handicapping abilities(at least a positive one). Every time I think of a scenario I quickly realize that it could be remedied with available statistical information. Baseball doesn't really have situations that are so dynamic that they can't be totally represented by stats.

[That Foreign Guy]

Good points.

If you're capable of turning watching a game in to useful information, then yes it helps. However, if you think watching a game is valuable in and of itself then it's counter-productive.

Your CBB example is interesting. If you're capable of making that judgement and being right, then watching games will help you handicap, but I think we're not talking about most people here.

Your MLB example it's not really watching the game that's helping you handicap better, it's getting the injury information quicker than the books. Yes, you get it by watching the game, but you're not really watching games and handicapping in the way people usually mean. You could equally get this information by having a friend who is the team physio who sends you a text.