Haneyh's Review of Conquering Risk

[bookie]

Here's a prepublication review on Justin7's new book. It gives a very rough idea of the book's outline.

http://www.sophisticatedmaniac.com/2010/06/conquering-risk-eagerly-awaited-sports.html

[MonkeyF0cker]

(Full disclosure: I contributed some editing work to this book.)

LOL.

[Pokerjoe]

First thing I read was about the possible revised title.
It should definitely be revised. Mere "Conquering Risk" isn't sexy. Sounds like a prob and stats course. To some extent it IS a prob and stats course, but you don't need to sound like it.

Good luck.

[PRC]

LOL.

Whats funny about that?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Whats funny about that?

Umm. Biased review much? The guy is reviewing a book which he edited. If you don't see the conflict of interest, I'm not sure I can help you.

[mathdotcom]

Monkey,

Settle down. After all, that is the exact same business model that SBR uses... except they aren't honest enough to add the full disclosure comment.

[PRC]

Umm. Biased review much? The guy is reviewing a book which he edited. If you don't see the conflict of interest, I'm not sure I can help you.

I thought you were getting at something else. The way I read it he wasnt an official editor or anything, just did it as a friend. Unless he's getting royalties, I dont think its a conflict of interest to review a book that you read over for content or grammatical errrors. Maybe justin can clear it up.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I thought you were getting at something else. The way I read it he wasnt an official editor or anything, just did it as a friend. Unless he's getting royalties, I dont think its a conflict of interest to review a book that you read over for content or grammatical errrors. Maybe justin can clear it up.

True. If he "just did it as a friend," I would expect much less bias.

[Justin7]

I think you summed it up nicely, PRC.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Monkey,

Settle down. After all, that is the exact same business model that SBR uses... except they aren't honest enough to add the full disclosure comment.

LOL.

[Pokerjoe]

Too many people don't understand the way book publishing works generally.

[Peregrine Stoop]

I don't understand the target market, purpose, for this book.

1. Your recreational guy that just picks winners will look at this type of thing and say f&^$ the math, I'm going to go watch Two for the Money again. This guy is aware that there are math nerds trying to beat the betting market, but either throw their hands up at learning even the easier parts of the math or discount math beating it at all.

2. Those that understand the statistics already know about the things in the book, judging by the TOC and reviews thus far, so it's a big yawner for them other than its value as a summary.

It seems the only type of person this book truly benefits is someone with a good grounding in statistics that wasn't interested in putting in the work to beat gambling. This book lowers the costs of that type of person pursuing sports betting. This book will add a few score of quants to the game.

Why was it even written?

[Dark Horse]

Why was it even written?

Are you serious?

Good books about sports betting are few and far between. I count four among my prized possessions. Looking forward to make it five.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Are you serious? Good books about sports betting are few and far between. I count four among my prized possessions. Looking forward to make it five.

well, I guess if J7 can convince people who already know everything in the book to buy it, it makes sense to write it.

[illini]

Is this book only available from amazon and sbr? Or will stores like barnes and noble and borders be carrying it?

[Dark Horse]

well, I guess if J7 can convince people who already know everything in the book to buy it, it makes sense to write it.

I'd be in big trouble if I assumed to know everything in a book without reading it.

Besides the actual topics, I'm interested in the way (successful) people think. And I often end up stealing a little from them. That's why I read books about gambling. They quench this thief's thirst.

[Mike9999]

Are you serious?

Good books about sports betting are few and far between. I count four among my prized possessions. Looking forward to make it five.

Could you please list the 4 books.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Too many people don't understand the way book publishing works generally.

Not sure if you're referring to me, but my father is an author. However, common sense would tell you that the reviewer has a vested interest to see that something he put his valuable time into does well.

[chaka]

in my opinion, a few books i would recommend for starters

Sharp Sports Betting- stanford wong. I like the review problems at ends of chapters. Also was my introduction to Poisson for props
Weighing the odds- King Yao
Education of Sports Better- Bob McCune shows his formula for creating lines for hoops and baseball.

to a lesser degree
-Win More Lose Less(Dan Peszynski) push number charts
-Sports Book Management(Roxborough) is the first book Ive seen with adjusting pricing of futures. Theoretical hold charts

Waste of money-
any of the robert ross books
dan gorden beat the nfl point spread

[Mike9999]

Thanks chaka.

I already have the first two on your list.

According to Amazon the other three are currently out of print.

[Justin7]

Why was it even written?

I've spent a ton of time and energy on what I think are original pursuits. Other people have too. This effort is duplicated with each new person, and time and money is often lost. Reason #1: help people stop wasting time on methods that have no chance of winning.

Casinos and sportsbooks are evil. They prey on the weak willed, the mathematically challenged, and the poor. Reason #2:Anyone that masters everything in that book will have the best of it whenever they gamble. This is overly optimistic though, since most people lack the will or the mathematics to follow this book. I actually expect a majority of people to read it, and say to themselves "Yeah I can do it. But it looks like a lot of work, so I'll keep doing my Martingale progressions." Some will read it, and say "I'm ******. I have no business betting." and they will quit betting. A very small minority will read it closely, master it, and add to it. They will take the methods there much further than I published, and they are a serious threat to any sportsbook's bottom line.

Reason #3: I actually enjoy teaching.

Reason #4: Publishing this is +EV for me.

[Dark Horse]

Could you please list the 4 books.

Sharp Sports Betting
Weighing the Odds
Win More, Lose Less
The Book

Other than that, I like to browse through the horse racing literature. Those authors pretty much killed their edge by sharing what they knew, but they left a library of concepts that can often be translated to other sports. The depths they are willing to explore is inspiring, and also left me with little doubt that the least knowledgeable of all investors, on average of course, are to be found on Wall Street. (anybody who would rather bet other people's money than his own should never be trusted; the golden rule that drives true investors and gamblers to greater heights is that you pay for your own mistakes; to me few character traits are more attractive than a willingness to learn everything there is to know about a subject, combined with a readiness to pay for every mistake along the way).

[MonkeyF0cker]

Reason #4: Publishing this is +EV for me.

So you're a losing sports bettor?

[chaka]

Thanks chaka.

I already have the first two on your list.

According to Amazon the other three are currently out of print.

gamblersbookclub.com appears to have them in stock

http://www.gamblersbookclub.com/product.php?productid=17941&cat=1167&page=1

education of sports bettor

Sports book management

http://www.gamblersbookclub.com/product.php?productid=17939&cat=1167&page=1

win more lose less

http://www.gamblersbookclub.com/product.php?productid=17935&cat=903&page=2

[Dark Horse]

Casinos and sportsbooks are evil. They prey on the weak willed, the mathematically challenged, and the poor.

Do you really see these house of chance like that?

[mathdotcom]

So you're a losing sports bettor?

Way to beat me to this comment

[Mike9999]

Dark Horse and chaka, thank you both for helping.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Fixed Odds Sports Betting by Buchdahl seems to have been overlooked by Dark Horse

[PRC]

Way to beat me to this comment

I think he meant that people will come to him with +EV information as he will be seen as an authority for having written this book.

[durito]

Casinos and sportsbooks are evil yet you work for a company whose income is derived from player loses at sportsbooks.

[Justin7]

Casinos and sportsbooks are evil yet you work for a company whose income is derived from player loses at sportsbooks.

I'd like to think that in all aspects, I decrease the income of sportsbooks. I try to expose fraudulent sportsbooks, even when it causes me headaches. I try to educate people how not to piss away money gambling. I/my group battle sportsbooks when the risk/reward ratio is good.

That said, it is a very frustrating battle. I once wanted to teach card counting. Almost everyone I tried, failed catastrophically. Then I added 1 filter question before trying to teach them: "What is 2% of 200?" I asked 20 people this. 2 got it right.

I don't expect any amount of public education will ever hurt my bottom line. The public contains too many gamblers that have no real interest in learning, or working to win. But I have steered a few. I occasionally lecture at Notre Dame, and it's encouraging to see an intelligent, mathematically weak person have that flash of insight where they realize they don't have any chance at all. I give a couple lectures every semester on this topic.

Make no mistake. Sportsbooks are no better than cigarette manufacturers. They sell something toxic, and ruin many lives. Education is the only answer, but most people can't stomach the cure.

Sports betting is "fun" from a few perspectives. The problem solving and intellectual challenges are very rewarding. The money, while pretty good, is no better than any intelligent person could do on their own with a well-run business. In the competent operation of sports betting or profiteering, your returns are mostly a function of the time you devote to your cause (and to a lesser extent, your intelligence; but anyone that wins long term at sports betting will likely do well in any pursuit.)

Why do you bet on sports, Durito? Is it pure money? Is it truly the most efficient way to sell your time for money? Is it the power of controlling your own life? Is it the egotistical fulfillment of crushing those intellectually weaker? All winning bettors have their reasons, but yours are less transparent than most.

[byronbb]

lol @ giving j7 any flack for writing a book be it about sportsbetting or growing roses.

[brumbies]

Justin7, is Justin7 your alias? There are two authors of Conquering Risks - Elihu D. Feustel and George S. Howard. I am like huh? Two authors? Why do you keep on saying its your book? Shouldn't you acknowledge your co-author too?

[Justin7]

Justin7, is Justin7 your alias? There are two authors of Conquering Risks - Elihu D. Feustel and George S. Howard. I am like huh? Two authors? Why do you keep on saying its your book? Shouldn't you acknowledge your co-author too?

It's an interesting situation. Come to the bash, I'll explain it. Professor Howard is a Ph.D. of Psychology at Notre Dame. I am a quant guy, and he is almost my opposite. He wrote about 15% of the book, and most of that was not directly on sports betting.

[Dark Horse]

Make no mistake. Sportsbooks are no better than cigarette manufacturers. They sell something toxic, and ruin many lives. Education is the only answer, but most people can't stomach the cure.

I completely disagree with the first part.

I didn't realize you saw it so black and white. Sportsbook and casinos, in my opinion, are neutral entities that offer people the opportunity to learn about proper decision making. Is not every single one of life's big decisions in essence a gamble? Look up the divorce rate. Check out NASA's history. Every exploration comes with build-in risk. Risk can't be conquered. It can only be managed. The elements to be conquered are fear and ignorance.

So I completely agree with the second part, about education.

Driving off a cliff doesn't make a car toxic. Why not learn to drive the thing first? If people wish not to learn the lessons life places before them, that is their right and free choice. Even then, if suffering results, something will be learned; so something is gained. Life goes on, so even 'ruin' is not a permanent state. The only difference between choices in real life and in the world of gambling is that the latter offers no place to hide. In this realm people pay for every single mistake they make. Some may find that unacceptably ruthless, but others find it incredibly beautiful; perhaps even more so because it goes hand in hand with a quest to improve upon current (scientific) knowledge.