number one on my list: team to score first
intuitively this one is just flawed to me. naturally i have no data to back this up at this point, and would love alternate views proving me wrong. (aside: unsure if this is right, but i usually take 20+ Cent lines as another indication of inefficiency as the book insulates itself against posting risky numbers)
i might be to simplistic in my approach, which is based on actual first goal pct to deduce a probability and estimate the line.
logic as follows:
- tonight car hosting ana, they have matching % on scoring first.
- assumption: league average will be .500
- in such a league, when 2 teams meet that have equal first score %, the likelihood of either scoring first is 50%
i backed at Ana +137 based solely on that logic. want to refine it from there, but having a terrible time finding any site that breakdowns how H/A first goal stats.
maybe i should also deduct the teams average from the league average (meaning a team at 55% first goal scoring pushes the average of the rest of the league under .500, vice versa on 45%). goaltender must have an impact as well.
thoughts?