Originally Posted by
danshan11
derailer I disclosed upfront I am as dumb as a doorknob and that my writing skills are that of a 8 year old who got held back twice, so it can get confusing, full disclosure I am dumb!
I hope that my point still sticks and people learn to not trust some wins, even 100s of wins can be deviation. and NEVER EVER use wins to adjust your stake size.
most people are writing how to cook a gourmet steak with commercial grade equipment when most bettors got the internet and their buddy Frank to help them pick winners, these are the people who should not be messing with Kelly, modified staking, adjusting for wins losses, calculating EV and other stuff.
Understand this
for every winner there are 1000s of losers and the losers go away and the winners stay until they lose
so if you see 10 guys on here saying they win long term more than likely most of them are deviations not winners UNLESS they have documented win records showing them beating the line consistently