Stuck and need some advice

[feldzpar]

Back round. I am new to sports betting (4 months). I have been wagering between 800 to 1000 a day, consistently, every day now since around Thanksgiving and I am down ~2200. I consistently have okay days where I make 50 profit and at least once a week good days making 250-400 profit, then there are these days, like today where everything that can go wrong, does. Losing 750 today and last week having a 1200 dollar swing in three days and looking back through paperwork and records I am seeing a pattern of failure, slow and painful with slight teases of success and joy only to be let down the next week by a huge losing day. Now my question.

I have been betting literally 20-30 games a day and wagers averaging around 40$, also two 3 or 4 team parlays every day. My thought process behind betting multiple games a day was it seemed safer to cap every single game on the table and find slight edges. Then to spread the Sports BR around not leaving all my weed in one bag, or as some would say, all my eggs in one basket.

The juice didn't make sense to me at first. I figured if I bet 3 games putting up a grand or 30 games putting up a grand the juice is the same in the end, your paying juice on 1000$. Now I am reevaluating my entire outlook on betting sports and could really use some advice and explanation.

Is betting less games per day really that much more long term EV+ and how the hell can I have these days where I get so slaughtered, I never have days where I nail 80% out of 20 bets but I have had a couple where I lost 80%.

Other thing I noticed is if my day is going awful to start I have a freak out panic mode. I take any of my winnings posted in my account and have to lay it on something to get even or just attempt to lose less for that day. IE, Frank Mir tonight, got him at -150 couple days ago for $65, tonight every bet goes wrong, UK and K ST. get slaughtered, NHL I go 2 for 8 on the night, so I lay another 200 on Mir, this time at -168, I even feel sick writing this. You probably know how this ends.

Thanks for the help guys, and sorry for the ramble, I am becoming aware of my mistakes, or at least becoming aware Im making mistakes, I really want to correct them and be successful at this.

[Justin7]

Taking a step back to look at the math is the beginning of the path to success.

To look at the "juice", start by assuming you only win 50% of your plays.

What is your expected loss on a $30 straight bet? What about a $30 3-team parlay?

[feldzpar]

Taking a step back to look at the math is the beginning of the path to success.

To look at the "juice", start by assuming you only win 50% of your plays.

What is your expected loss on a $30 straight bet? What about a $30 3-team parlay?

Okay, Im gonna sound novice and stupid now. But, I have read so many of your posts Justin, and really really really really respect what you offer to this community and you have no idea how much help from you guys means to me.

"What is your expected loss on a $30 straight bet? What about a $30 3-team parlay?"

Straight bet EL would be 3$ and parlay EL is 30$?

I dunno if thats right, gave it a shot.


- How do you guys feel about number of bets per day and the juice? Does it really make a difference in the long run if you bet smaller amounts more frequently or larger amount less frequently.

- I see every game as ultimately a coin flip, 50% chance of winning. Usually I spend about 30 min per game looking over ATS #, Public bets, line movements, injuries, quick search each team google news, power rankings and recent team results. With all that info available, and the concept it is a 50% chance if I were to flip a coin and make every selection that way, yet I have all these numbers in front of me which should give me somewhat increase in advantage (I dont think this is right anymore, or at least am beginning to analyze)...see what Im saying?

- Something I really wanna know and have not seen anyone explain in English. UK v WV yesterday is a prime example. Around 70% of the public bet with UK -4. There were around 50,000 bets placed (sports insights). The line did not move. Occasionally the vig moved up or down from -105 to -110, but no increase of the spread with that much action on one side.

IMO this means one of three things.
1. Books are super smart and will risk a huge loss and trust the original spread enough in hopes of huge paydays.

2.Huge bets are being placed on WV, making up for the quantity placed on UK.

3. They are degens and like the rush.

Thanks for any help you guys offer, I really appreciate it. Have a nice day.

[Peep]

You are lucky (thanks to good planning) to have detailed records.

I would work on breaking them up and rebraking them up to see what have so far been your strengths and weaknesses.

1) Road teams or home teams?
2) Favorites or dogs? Big favorites or big dogs?
3) Break them up by sport. Is your success better with hoops or foots? Pros or college?
4) Then go for subsets of that. See what you have excelled at, what you have stunk at, go from there with a bit or correction.

I have had to give up bets in catagories that I loved more times than I can remember for reasons of financial stability.......

[BigdaddyQH]

You do keep good records and that is very important. But you are still falling into a typical trap. I suggest you refine your system. Remember, the bottom line is that you must hit about 53% of your wagers to break even. The more you wager, the better your chances of hitting 50% are, and that is a loser. You must understand that wagering on one game only on a given day is NOT putting all of your eggs in one basket in the long run. It is only doing that for one day. If you wager 300 days a year, that percentage is negligable.

I would concentrate on which games are my top 5-7 games a day, and wager my daily allotment on those games. Remember that the books make a living on people who have to wager on every game in any day. The odds are going to catch up to you, as you have already seen. Be more selective in your wagers. As Peep suggested, refine your wagering system using the information you have collected. Also remember this. Wagering for 4 months means absolutely nothing in the long run. You are going to be refining your system for 4 years before you find something that works generally, and you will be refining your system constantly as long as you wager. You are just starting. Be patient. Peaks and Valleys. That is the way this game is played.

[feldzpar]

You do keep good records and that is very important. But you are still falling into a typical trap. I suggest you refine your system. Remember, the bottom line is that you must hit about 53% of your wagers to break even. The more you wager, the better your chances of hitting 50% are, and that is a loser. You must understand that wagering on one game only on a given day is NOT putting all of your eggs in one basket in the long run. It is only doing that for one day. If you wager 300 days a year, that percentage is negligable.

I would concentrate on which games are my top 5-7 games a day, and wager my daily allotment on those games. Remember that the books make a living on people who have to wager on every game in any day. The odds are going to catch up to you, as you have already seen. Be more selective in your wagers. As Peep suggested, refine your wagering system using the information you have collected. Also remember this. Wagering for 4 months means absolutely nothing in the long run. You are going to be refining your system for 4 years before you find something that works generally, and you will be refining your system constantly as long as you wager. You are just starting. Be patient. Peaks and Valleys. That is the way this game is played.

Thank you for all the wisdom. I really do appreciate the breakdown of focusing long term and how betting all those games creates so much potential for half and half....the light has turned on.

I really have disliked the idea of setting a limit per day or even a limit range, but I need to get that going like 6 days ago. I will start to justify to myself why I need to be betting 75% of the NHL games. Harness in with a set number daily, cuz I know Im gonna try and create value in most lines, searching for it. I really have an urge to discover value on a line, why not at worst it is 50/50? But now I get it, I understand how betting 75% of games or even betting a high number of games only favors the best possible outcome for the books and the worst most frustrating thing I have experienced this far wagering sports...Fiddy Fiddy.

[mdemps9190]

yeah if I were you, since you are so new, I would bet less amount per game to start off. And once you get the hang of it maybe increase your wagers a bit. I've been betting on sports for 3 years now, and just starting to really understand how to cap and good money management. I would say you absolutely should not be betting more than 10 games a day, and that even is high to some people. In terms of parlays, don't waste one unit if you don't think that you have any shot.

[feldzpar]

You are lucky (thanks to good planning) to have detailed records.

I would work on breaking them up and rebraking them up to see what have so far been your strengths and weaknesses.

1) Road teams or home teams?
2) Favorites or dogs? Big favorites or big dogs?
3) Break them up by sport. Is your success better with hoops or foots? Pros or college?
4) Then go for subsets of that. See what you have excelled at, what you have stunk at, go from there with a bit or correction.

I have had to give up bets in categories that I loved more times than I can remember for reasons of financial stability.......

Thanks for the tip on breaking these lump sums of wins and losses down more into specific categories so I can analyze and fix the weakness. It should be helpful information to see where I am losing the most money, there would be so many different varieties of wagers to analyze and categorize..I plan to start with home & road all sports, spreads v moneylines, each sport individually and lastly dogs v faves.

Instead of trying to become better at categories I am struggling in get better at bets I am consistently winning a high %.

[Justin7]

No one here will insult you if you ask questions.

mdemps suggested you bet small until you learn more. This is good advice for everyone. I would either lower your stake, or stop betting with real money until you've studied up.

[Bsims]

Your initial post reminds me of why I tell people "gambling is evil". On the surface you are competing with the books and indirectly with other bettors. But the real competition you are in is with yourself. Can you learn what your strengths and weaknesses are from experience (and good record keeping). Then can you develop the self discipline required to wager only on your strengths and avoid chasing as in your Mir example.

The other guys responses have been very good advice on technically improving you ability and I don't have anything to add. Learning from forums like this is also quite helpful.

But, it also is helpful to understand why you gamble and it's potential impact on your life. Hopefully it is for recreation only and at limits high enough to make it interesting but not so high that it might impact your life. With this knowledge, you have a chance at developing an overall approach that will be acceptable and personally rewarding. But beware, gambling can be addictive and can lead to self destruction.

[MrX]

To start with, your assumption of a 50% win rate at worst is wrong. Sure, you'd hit 50% flipping a coin, but you're not flipping a coin. It's easy to look at a lot of publicly available information and interpret it in such a way that your choices will hit at less than 50%. It's very easy to do that.

You didn't go into much detail on you handicapping methods, but from what little you did write, I'd be surprised if your expected win rate wasn't on the wrong side of 50%.

It's clear that math isn't your strong suit, but without math, how do you have any idea how much affect an injury should have on a line, how much weight to give to recent results vs earlier results, how to interpret power rankings, etc? You may well be overreacting or underreacting to any number of factors along with the public.

Maybe some people beat the kind of markets you're talking about without a math-based approach. If they do, they are far from the norm. The only successful people I know either have a strong quantitative approach, or they attack the market from a non-handicapping approach.

[feldzpar]

To start with, your assumption of a 50% win rate at worst is wrong. Sure, you'd hit 50% flipping a coin, but you're not flipping a coin. It's easy to look at a lot of publicly available information and interpret it in such a way that your choices will hit at less than 50%. It's very easy to do that.

You didn't go into much detail on you handicapping methods, but from what little you did write, I'd be surprised if your expected win rate wasn't on the wrong side of 50%.

It's clear that math isn't your strong suit, but without math, how do you have any idea how much affect an injury should have on a line, how much weight to give to recent results vs earlier results, how to interpret power rankings, etc? You may well be overreacting or underreacting to any number of factors along with the public.

Maybe some people beat the kind of markets you're talking about without a math-based approach. If they do, they are far from the norm. The only successful people I know either have a strong quantitative approach, or they attack the market from a non-handicapping approach.

Everything you wrote about my math is absolutely spot on. Taking this from a quantitative approach is unlikely, I cheated my way through Geometry and FST in high school and majored in Philosophy avoiding math at all costs in college. I honestly dont know if what I am doing when capping games is right or wrong. I am seeing a pattern of I try a "system/approach" and eventually it has failed and then I come up with another scheme that turns out to be short lived due to massive failure. On the same note as patterns, I finally understand chasing late night games is just so stupid, the pattern is obvious, I try and make a comeback or a breakeven attempt on the last game of night and it has failed with a record of 2-5, these being my largest wagers of the day in most cases. It worked for me one time and saved my day, I really enjoyed the feeling of that win, the rush of being down 400$ on the day and then the Canucks win by 2 beating the puckline and paying +190, but I have now felt the other side of that proposition and seeing the Canucks lose and now instead of being down 400 Im down 600.

I am just going to work on fixing my approach for now. Limit number of bets per day along with lowering my bet size and am not going to make late night plays based on my daily loss or win.

When I cap a game this has been my approach. Please, Please, Please I really could use constructive critisicm, this is probably going to be a overdrawn long explanation of what I do, but, I thought breaking down what Im looking for when capping will hopefully offer insight to my mistakes through your guys expertise.

- open up both my books and see the lines being offered.

- I use Covers matchups for each sport. I look at ATS and put emphasis on those numbers, especially the detailed ATS numbers. Home v Away, Above .500 or under .500 teams, in conference ATS v out of conf ATS and how the teams have done with similar range spreads throughout season.

- On Covers matchups I look for teams PPG AAG and rebounding also turnover margins and injuries.

- On Covers also looking for recent results for the matchup if in the same season, I look at last five games away and at home and consider these results to be worth emphasis.

- On Sports Insights I am looking for Public Bets. I have had to figure this out myself so far and have noticed similarities about the market. One being if there are 10,000 or more bets on a game and a majority over 65% is backing a team, usually chalk, I go opposite and bet against the public and have noticed a decent success rate with that approach, but mostly with CBB.

-On Sports Insights I use their Power Rankings, cuz like you said, although you said it with much more kindness and tact, I suck at math and thus the thought of creating my own power rankings seems overwhelming. I put minimal emphasis on the Power Rankings from SI. But it has influenced my wagers when we are in agreement about a line, Im using the Rankings like a lil sidekick always in agreement, "see, even the power rankings is showing the spread is too low, I thought so."

- I watch as much sports as humanly possible.Try really hard to keep up with everything going on from golf to MMA to CBB.

- Its hard for me to lay -140 or more on any wager. Like really really hard. I just dont think I can do it. But, I have been thinking today about this. If I was investing in say Costco and bought 100 shares for 50$ a shot and in 5 years Costco stock rose to 65$ a share that would be huge ROI for investment banker types. From that POV, paying -145 and making profit in a matter of hours seems more reasonable. I have been seeing an NHL line, like Canucks -180. So, I look at regulation bets and puckline cuz there is no value in my mind at -180 for anyone...but, maybe I am being too greedy, cuz a great majority of the time Canucks are gonna win that game and if I put 360$ on them making 200$ profit it is better that getting +120 -1 1/2 and having them win in shootout by one.

- I also google news the game and see if anything interesting pops up from quotes or press conference type stuff.

- I look at the lines, determine who I feel will win the game and by how much. Check all the above info and see if it agrees with my initial lean and then I have been picking around 25 games a day.

I have not been getting killed financially. In some respects I am kinda proud of my amount wagered and my losses being relatively small. In 4 months I have wagered 120,000$ and am down ~2,200$. The point of this is to be up and that is where the changes need to take place. I have spent so much time and invested a lot of energy stress and found something I truly enjoy doing every day. Sports Betting can be such a blast when the going is good.

[feldzpar]

Your initial post reminds me of why I tell people "gambling is evil". On the surface you are competing with the books and indirectly with other bettors. But the real competition you are in is with yourself. Can you learn what your strengths and weaknesses are from experience (and good record keeping). Then can you develop the self discipline required to wager only on your strengths and avoid chasing as in your Mir example.

The other guys responses have been very good advice on technically improving you ability and I don't have anything to add. Learning from forums like this is also quite helpful.

But, it also is helpful to understand why you gamble and it's potential impact on your life. Hopefully it is for recreation only and at limits high enough to make it interesting but not so high that it might impact your life. With this knowledge, you have a chance at developing an overall approach that will be acceptable and personally rewarding. But beware, gambling can be addictive and can lead to self destruction.

Thanks for the warning about gambling. I also agree with you about chasing, its history, not doing that anymore.

I can see how easy it would be to wire more than I can afford to lose on the books and end up begging for your change and a smoke. I need more work on controlling my emotions and I think that the help I have already gotten here will go a long way. Looking at this in a broader sense is crucial to stop the chasing, whats a day? If Im down one day and up the next the only difference is the earth did a 360, so the notion of turning a profit everyday is hopeless and destructive, there will be losing days and thats okay, if I try to make those losing days winners on the last game of the night for records sake this endeavor will become too rich.

[MrX]

Please, Please, Please I really could use constructive critisicm, this is probably going to be a overdrawn long explanation of what I do, but, I thought breaking down what Im looking for when capping will hopefully offer insight to my mistakes through your guys expertise.

That was a good description of your process, thanks for that. You're not going to like my opinion, I'm afraid, but I don't think you'll be surprised, either.

Like I said in my previous post, for the most part you're looking in the obvious places, at the obvious stats, and drawing the obvious conclusions. How are you going to beat the market that way? The line is created and adjusted based on the same things you are looking at.

I've never studied the effectiveness of sportsinsights, you may be gaining a little there, maybe not, I don't know, but it's probably not a bad thing to be doing.

As far as everything else, I'm pretty sure that you are overreacting to nearly everything, that's what people tend to do. You're probably putting too much emphases on recent performance, on ATS numbers, on situational numbers, even on what you see when you watch the games.

Other than telling you that, I don't have much to offer other than to recommend that you step away from the sportsbetting until you reach a minimum comfort-level with math. The math required to be successful really isn't that bad, in fact it's much easier than what you shied away from in school, but it's absolutely vital.

Or, focus on a non-handicapping approach.

[bigbank]

First thing you need to do is back off the NHL until you are a bit more experienced. Next, refine your handicapping, it looks to be a pretty scattershot, no way does anyone find an advantage on that many games in a day. Stop worrying about the public, no sites post an accurate count of what joe schmo is doing and trust me you will lay off just as many winners because the "public" is all over the game.

To be successful at this you need to give two shits about what game anyone else is on. You need to develop a capping style that you are confident in and come up with a money management strategy that you are confident in. Last but not least is you really need to work on the mental aspect of sports investing (if your gambling you lose, period). It is very obvious from your posts that there is far to much emotion involved. Your going to win some and you going to lose some, handicap the game, place the "investment" and move on to the next one. This stuff takes time. We've all been in your shoes and some of us have figured it out (or so we think) and some of us will never figure it out. Have fun and enjoy the ride.

[suicidekings]

Some good advice above. To add a couple points of my own:

- I see that you're wagering on a variety of sports, and that might feel like you're making your best bets across the spectrum, giving you an edge. I would say that this is actually not the case, and you'd probably be better served to focus your attention on one sport to begin.

- Use of ATS stats isn't a great indicator for capping games as all the context is lost. For example: The Dallas Mavericks have a terrible home ATS record, but in how many of those games were they double digit faves? How much does that record factor in when considering a game in which they are only a small home fave? Your first step should be assessing what a fair line for a matchup should be before turning your attention to the lines the books are offering.

- Fading the public via sports insights data is not a strategy in itself, however it can be a useful element to handicapping. JM System plays can skew public bets, as can the relative popularity of the teams involved. When the Lakers or the Cavs play the Nets is it suspicious when they're -10 point road faves, yet are still getting 80% of the bets? Not really...

- I would say the most important thing to keep in mind when capping games is to try to put yourself in the mind of the linemakers. When setting the openers, books start by generating a fair line based on statistics, but then make an additional step, adjusting the line so that in their estimation, it will produce equal action on both sides (estimating public perception), which will guarantee their profit margin from the vigorish. Your primary goal should be to determine how much the line deviates from a fair line and what the underlying reasons for the difference are. From there, you can use additional filters such as injuries and schedule (B2B games, etc) to determine which side of a particular line has the value.

It's always better to be on the side the books think are going to win. The trick is figuring out which side that is.

[feldzpar]

First thing you need to do is back off the NHL until you are a bit more experienced. Next, refine your handicapping, it looks to be a pretty scattershot, no way does anyone find an advantage on that many games in a day. Stop worrying about the public, no sites post an accurate count of what joe schmo is doing and trust me you will lay off just as many winners because the "public" is all over the game.

To be successful at this you need to give two shits about what game anyone else is on. You need to develop a capping style that you are confident in and come up with a money management strategy that you are confident in. Last but not least is you really need to work on the mental aspect of sports investing (if your gambling you lose, period). It is very obvious from your posts that there is far to much emotion involved. Your going to win some and you going to lose some, handicap the game, place the "investment" and move on to the next one. This stuff takes time. We've all been in your shoes and some of us have figured it out (or so we think) and some of us will never figure it out. Have fun and enjoy the ride.

I 100% agree about the amount of games played in a day. The example given by betting more games it is only increasing the likelihood that I hit that 50/50 point. That was a huge revelation. HUGE. I have read posts before about not betting many games in a day and how it was sure to fail but I never understood why, that one sentence made it click for me.

I am not the kind of guy to just enjoy the ride. I wish I was, but that aint me. I have to win, one way or another. I need to fix mistakes and control emotions, and you are right, I do get emotional, but, its not about the 2,200 lost in 4 months. Its the ~1200 hours of work I have invested in this, the heartbreak of feeling like I am onto a winning strategy then to see it unravel in only a couple days and sit there scratching my head. You mentioned confidence, when Im up, I have it, I feel like I could pick winners on an Indonesian cricket game at 3am, when I have a losing day like I did a couple days ago or previous huge loss random days I really doubt myself and mull over picks for a long time, too long. Also, when Im losing, I start to get super pessimistic right before game t me. Start getting bad feelings, every time the other team has the ball or puck Im trippin out, just unreal...when Im winning complete opposite, optimistic, confident excited.

Thanks for the insight, I am gonna work on controlling the emotions, making the investment and leaving it at that, gonna be tough, but with less games on my card everyday, I think life might get less confusing and hopefully more profitable.

Why do you say NHL should be saved for when I have more experience. Out of my 2,200 in losses NHL makes up for -647$ of that, my worst sport. Just bizarre how you knew. What makes it the harder sport to cap?

[feldzpar]

Some good advice above. To add a couple points of my own:

- I see that you're wagering on a variety of sports, and that might feel like you're making your best bets across the spectrum, giving you an edge. I would say that this is actually not the case, and you'd probably be better served to focus your attention on one sport to begin.

- Use of ATS stats isn't a great indicator for capping games as all the context is lost. For example: The Dallas Mavericks have a terrible home ATS record, but in how many of those games were they double digit faves? How much does that record factor in when considering a game in which they are only a small home fave? Your first step should be assessing what a fair line for a matchup should be before turning your attention to the lines the books are offering.

- Fading the public via sports insights data is not a strategy in itself, however it can be a useful element to handicapping. JM System plays can skew public bets, as can the relative popularity of the teams involved. When the Lakers or the Cavs play the Nets is it suspicious when they're -10 point road faves, yet are still getting 80% of the bets? Not really...

- I would say the most important thing to keep in mind when capping games is to try to put yourself in the mind of the linemakers. When setting the openers, books start by generating a fair line based on statistics, but then make an additional step, adjusting the line so that in their estimation, it will produce equal action on both sides (estimating public perception), which will guarantee their profit margin from the vigorish. Your primary goal should be to determine how much the line deviates from a fair line and what the underlying reasons for the difference are. From there, you can use additional filters such as injuries and schedule (B2B games, etc) to determine which side of a particular line has the value.

It's always better to be on the side the books think are going to win. The trick is figuring out which side that is.

The light is still off for me. I reread your post a couple times. How can I figure out which side the books think are going to win? The only thing I could see being an instance where the books would want a team to win or cover is when a great majority of bets are placed on the losing side and they reverse line move or keep it still even with overwhelming action.

I went through all my frequently played sports profits

NHL: -647$/ wagered ~21,000$

NBA: -45$/ wagered ~15,000$

MLB: +147$ (spring)/ wagered ~4,000$

NCAAB: -575$/ wagered ~42,000$

NFL: -430$/ wagered ~15,000$

NCAAF: -250$/ wagered ~8,000$

Parlays: -455$/ wagered ~9,000$

Now I gotta figure out where the profit can be made and break down this data even more into when be dogs v faves and such, but this was so interesting to work on this evening, actually most of the night. It is crazy to actually see how much money has been played, not that I even had a fraction of that available in my account at any one time, but just nuts to look at.

I got lucky with some of my parlay bets. When I actually broke down every single stupid parlay that I made and lost I felt sick. Just cause I only remembered the ones I hit, cuz some were like 6 team 700 profit, just sick how fast the losses add up.

[suicidekings]

The most important part to take out of what I wrote above is the part about how books go about setting lines in the first place.

In general, the books could care less who wins a particular game. It's not in their best interest to have an opinion, as it's far easier to just do what they need to do to balance the action on each side and collect the vig. That being said, the books typically have a more objective viewpoint than the average bettor about each team's relative strengths & weaknesses and who is coming into the game in a better position to win.

A line setter might decide that a fair line for a particular Cavs-Pacers game is Cavs -6.5 because the Pacers have been playing well recently and the Cavs are working through some injuries. However, he knows that the public would be all over the Eastern Conference leading Cavs at -6.5 over the lowly Pacers and this line will produce very imbalanced betting. So instead he releases the line at Cavs -10.5, believing that this line will produce a balance of the money coming in on both sides, guaranteeing the profit for the book.

The question is, which side does the perceived value lie on for a bettor looking at that -10.5? If he's handicapped the game himself and produced a number closer to the -6.5 fair line, he might decide that Indy at +10.5 is a good bet. However the Cavs being who they are, they are almost certain to get a larger number of bets than the Pacers from the betting public. So the line opens at -10.5. A few sharp bettors jump on Indy at +10.5 and the line moves overnight down to Cavs -9. The public wakes up the next day and sees the even better line on the Cavs and start placing bets throughout the day. The line is adjusted accordingly as money comes in on Cleveland and moves back up to Cavs -10. The last few minutes see late money coming in on Indiana at +10 right before tip off.

The number of bets breaks down as a 70-30 split in favour of the Cavs, but in general the bets on the Pacers are larger as the sharper bettors are typically placing largers wagers (seeing value in those extra points given) than an average bettor. The net effect for the books is zero. They don't care at all who wins as they'll collect their vig either way, but from your perspective, which side would you rather be on? If you've capped the game yourself, you know that the books have made a steeper line and the Cavs will have a harder time covering. The value lies on Indy at the original +10.5, and that value decreased as the line dropped down to +9.

This is a very typical situation where the books don't really have an opinion. The line moved according to the money coming in, at first more on Indiana (overnight sharp action), and then more on the Cavs Public throughout the day) until close to game time when more sharp money comes in at the last minute on Indy. Both sides will argue their case, and it could go either way in the end.

[suicidekings]

The non-typical situation is where a line opens at a particular number (Let's say LAL -3.5 @ CHR) and doesn't react to market activity as expected. This was an actual game line a few weeks ago. Looking at the bets coming in on each side, there was a sizable imbalance of bets with the Lakers taking most of the action. Being the Lakers and only laying 3.5 points, the public saw a "great deal" and continued to pour money onto LA throughout the day. The line, however, didn't move. It stayed static at -3.5. The books kept taking the money but because they had a strong lean towards CHR in the game, they decided to not move the line. The end result was the Bobcats winning outright and the public bettors getting killed. The books had a better than average day as they paid out a relatively small number of winning CHR bets, and kept the balance of the money that came in on the Lakers. In this case, the books had an opinion on the outcome of the game, and decided to act on that opinion.

Comparing a fair line in this game to the LAL -3.5 that was presented, you'd see something similar to the above CLE/IND example. LAL -3.5 was a compromise from where the public expected to see the line (Lakers as 5-7 point faves at worst) and a fair line, which could have seen the Bobcats as faves. That -3.5 was far more attractive to the public than a +1 would have been because they just thought they were getting a deal because of the Lakers being on a road trip and coming off a loss, but it wasn't so far off to be overly suspicious.

The linemakers knew exactly what they were doing in setting that line initially and also knew that they would be unlikely to move it (very little, if at all) and had a strong lean towards the Bobcats covering. Giving them +3.5, which didn't seem like enough against Kobe & the Lakers to a typical bettor.

So anyways, from those two examples:

- Lines are set to match public perception just as much as they are to reflect a fair line.
- Spotting where the value lay in each example depended on the bettor having a solid notion of where the line should be, having the experience to explain why the line deviated from where it should be initially, being able to read the line movement (or lack thereof) as normal market activity or as being controlled by the books, and having the patience to watch what the market does before committing to a side to wager on.
- In general, learning to gauge how the books approach a matchup is invaluable as it gives you an indication as to where their opinions lie. Sometimes that's just a confirmation that they have no strong opinions, and other times you can glean which way they are leaning and bet accordingly.

[hrgonz0]

This is what has worked for me: I try to look at it as an investment. In some ways, it is not much different from the stock market in that you are mostly looking for long term gain along with some short term success. If you take this approach, then you'll be forced to come up with a sound strategy that includes managing your bankroll, choosing the correct books, and of course, playing the games you feel more comfortable with and have studied the most.

You can find a lot of useful information above and throughout SBR. Take some from each and use it all to your advantage.

Good luck.

[feldzpar]

Kings, Thanks you for those examples given. I noticed the trends you were talking about on my own in your second example explaining the line being static and huge one sided action, but I never put it into words or was sure if it was coincidence.

So when sites are releasing public bets and show a percentage IE WV 80% v Duke 20% this is saying number of bets not amount of money right?

[gmcarroll33]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/feldz-picks-665374/

^^^^^^^^^This sums up why you fail. I've never came across somebody who daily thought they had could out cap every single game on the board every single day, while having multiple one's with edges dictating a play being worth 5-10 units a piece and sustain this long term

[feldzpar]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...-picks-665374/

^^^^^^^^^This sums up why you fail. I've never came across somebody who daily thought they had could out cap every single game on the board every single day, while having multiple one's with edges dictating a play being worth 5-10 units a piece and sustain this long term

Yeah, the whole system was a joke. I was under the impression that diversifying the bets would allow less chance for loss long term, how wrong that idea was.

Like I said, new to this and still learning. Thanks for making a link to show everyone my brashness when I started, giving out picks like I knew what was up. I kinda laugh at the idea now, I am a confident guy, but that was arrogance to list picks in my first month of capping games.

[BigdaddyQH]

Suicidekings make a very important point, especially if you are wagering on football. The linesmakers must adjust their lines to what they perceive the public will buy before they make them open to the public. Their job is to get 50% of the action on each side, giving them a guaranteed profit, called the vig. You, s a 'capper, do not need to consider what the public perceives. All you have to do is come up with a legitimate line, and compare your line to the line being offered at your book. This is what the "Touts" like to call finding bad lines. Like Suicide said, if you can get a good take on what the boys at LVSC (who set the lines) are doing, you can make money at this game.

[suicidekings]

Kings, Thanks you for those examples given. I noticed the trends you were talking about on my own in your second example explaining the line being static and huge one sided action, but I never put it into words or was sure if it was coincidence.

So when sites are releasing public bets and show a percentage IE WV 80% v Duke 20% this is saying number of bets not amount of money right?

Exactly. These numbers, along with the concept of books trying to balance the money wagered on each side gives you a lot of information. Handicapping means trying to make sense of dozens of details and even if you have a good grasp of the facts, you can't always be sure if a team is going to show up for a game. You can, however, always be sure that the books are going to do what's in their best interest financially.

[feldzpar]

Suicidekings make a very important point, especially if you are wagering on football. The linesmakers must adjust their lines to what they perceive the public will buy before they make them open to the public. Their job is to get 50% of the action on each side, giving them a guaranteed profit, called the vig. You, s a 'capper, do not need to consider what the public perceives. All you have to do is come up with a legitimate line, and compare your line to the line being offered at your book. This is what the "Touts" like to call finding bad lines. Like Suicide said, if you can get a good take on what the boys at LVSC (who set the lines) are doing, you can make money at this game.

So, coming up with my own line sounds extremely hit and miss. Is there any tips you could offer up to streamline the process in determining legitimate lines and spreads?

I know Sports Insights offers a power rating line in their matchups. I pay some attention to it, but not much, it seems funky to click on a site and just take their word for what a line should be based off their power ratings. The power line offered claims to compare teams relative strength, home field advantage, recent results and in most cases the power line is very close to the actual line offered. I have done week long studies at various points and seen it to not show reliability. For instance in hockey, BetCris will offer a home team at -180, the power rating will indicate that home team should only be -120, giving supposed value to the away team, like I said, I have yet to see the power rating have a high percentage of accuracy.

[Art Vandeleigh]

A line setter might decide that a fair line for a particular Cavs-Pacers game is Cavs -6.5 because the Pacers have been playing well recently and the Cavs are working through some injuries. However, he knows that the public would be all over the Eastern Conference leading Cavs at -6.5 over the lowly Pacers and this line will produce very imbalanced betting. So instead he releases the line at Cavs -10.5, believing that this line will produce a balance of the money coming in on both sides, guaranteeing the profit for the book.

Suicidekings your write-ups are interesting and as far as I know may reflect what the books do.

However aren't the books better off in the long run sticking with the fair line they have come up with if in fact they believe it is an accurate line? In the long run the closer they get to the accurate game line the more random sportsbetting becomes (the closer it gets to dice or roulette). When you start deviating from the fair line of the game you are opening yourself up to being taken advantage of. The money moving back and forth between the sportsbook and the bettors may be more volatile the way you have described the types of games in your example above, but the closer the books release lines that are fair and accurate the less they are exposing themselves in the long run.

[suicidekings]

Suicidekings your write-ups are interesting and as far as I know may reflect what the books do.

However aren't the books better off in the long run sticking with the fair line they have come up with if in fact they believe it is an accurate line? In the long run the closer they get to the accurate game line the more random sportsbetting becomes (the closer it gets to dice or roulette). When you start deviating from the fair line of the game you are opening yourself up to being taken advantage of. The money moving back and forth between the sportsbook and the bettors may be more volatile the way you have described the types of games in your example above, but the closer the books release lines that are fair and accurate the less they are exposing themselves in the long run.

Under the assumption that all bettors approach wagering in the same way, that they all have a similar appreciation for the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team in a particular matchup, and a completely objective approach, then what you say would be correct. However, the pool of bettors placing wagers on an event is much more diverse than that, with a wide range of sophistication from professional gamblers using advanced statistical methods down to the casual bettor that likes laying money on big ML faves because the Lakers/Yankees/etc "can't lose this game".

Sportsbooks know their audience very well because every day that audience gives them feedback on who they like. If you've placed a few dozen bets at a book they know exactly what kind of player you are. Spread that out across the betting population and books have a very good idea of what the public expects for a particular matchup and what line will draw equal action. Where the fair line actually lies and who is expected to win just doesn't matter to them as long as the books balance.

[statnerds]

- open up both my books and see the lines being offered.

Feldzpar -

welcome to SBR and to the world of sports investing. i wish you much success and starting off by asking questions and seeking advice is the right path.

as for the above, if that is your first step, you already lost. i cannot accurately convey to you the importance of capping your own number. i skimmed through this thread so if it was covered i apologize. think Kings was along the same line of thought.

anyway, you must cap your own number before the book creates an anchor in your mind, just like when Apple release iphone part 50. $499 may be way too high of a price, but they know tech geeks and keeping up with the joneses people will buy them. then when the price drops, a whole new batch of people will think $349 is a great deal because apple established the anchor at $499, even if the fair price is only $249.

now tie that in to betting. and while it is rare to have one sided movement for the life of a product (side or total), the example holds true.

i suck at every sport except the nfl, just check my nhl record below. so my example will come from that sport. i capped the SB at a near pick 'em. so when i saw Indy open at 3.5, i had immediate value, but i didn't bet it. when the line shot up to 5.5, i took the Saints +4.5 +110 (think that was it.) why? because i trusted my own number and was able to take what i viewed as a +EV wager at +110. what about people that didn't cap their own number and that liked the Colts, but didn't see a line until it was 5 or 5.5?

the best part about sports betting is each side in a contest has perceived value.

keep in mind also that every book and every bettor has access to everything you listed as current capping tools. what they do not have access to is your brain. unless you can bring a certain thought pattern or a process that finds something in the information that other people cannot, you are fighting an uphill battle.

is every play you make your own play? i would suggest scouring this forum and finding which guys are good in which sports. the most awesomest thing ever is that being new to sports betting you can easily adjust your expectations right now.

if you can find a guy that can consistently hit 55% over hundreds of plays, you have struck gold my friend. i would say just under 100% of cappers will not hit 60% long term in any sport ever. 95% wouldn't even get to 57% long term. so understand that if you find a guy with a winning % of 55 or higher be very, very happy. (unless that guy is only backing heavy chalk ML)

i like your mindset thus far. think you will be fine.

[feldzpar]

Feldzpar -

welcome to SBR and to the world of sports investing. i wish you much success and starting off by asking questions and seeking advice is the right path.

as for the above, if that is your first step, you already lost. i cannot accurately convey to you the importance of capping your own number. i skimmed through this thread so if it was covered i apologize. think Kings was along the same line of thought.

anyway, you must cap your own number before the book creates an anchor in your mind, just like when Apple release iphone part 50. $499 may be way too high of a price, but they know tech geeks and keeping up with the joneses people will buy them. then when the price drops, a whole new batch of people will think $349 is a great deal because apple established the anchor at $499, even if the fair price is only $249.

now tie that in to betting. and while it is rare to have one sided movement for the life of a product (side or total), the example holds true.

i suck at every sport except the nfl, just check my nhl record below. so my example will come from that sport. i capped the SB at a near pick 'em. so when i saw Indy open at 3.5, i had immediate value, but i didn't bet it. when the line shot up to 5.5, i took the Saints +4.5 +110 (think that was it.) why? because i trusted my own number and was able to take what i viewed as a +EV wager at +110. what about people that didn't cap their own number and that liked the Colts, but didn't see a line until it was 5 or 5.5?

the best part about sports betting is each side in a contest has perceived value.

keep in mind also that every book and every bettor has access to everything you listed as current capping tools. what they do not have access to is your brain. unless you can bring a certain thought pattern or a process that finds something in the information that other people cannot, you are fighting an uphill battle.

is every play you make your own play? i would suggest scouring this forum and finding which guys are good in which sports. the most awesomest thing ever is that being new to sports betting you can easily adjust your expectations right now.

if you can find a guy that can consistently hit 55% over hundreds of plays, you have struck gold my friend. i would say just under 100% of cappers will not hit 60% long term in any sport ever. 95% wouldn't even get to 57% long term. so understand that if you find a guy with a winning % of 55 or higher be very, very happy. (unless that guy is only backing heavy chalk ML)

i like your mindset thus far. think you will be fine.

Thanks for the reply and insight. I am going to start capping games before I look at lines, I am worried that it is gonna be incorrect when I do it, but still, I am gonna try and decide where each game should be and see where I am compared to the line offered.

About, the following others picks, not too interested. I really wanna get good at this for myself, not tail others work. Nothing wrong with tailing but in the long run it will be beneficial for self reliance.

I liked the line I put in Bold. Interesting concept and true, now the task at hand is distinguishing the percieved value from actual value.

[kisado]

I will point out the key thing that you are doing wrong. I might sound like an ass but take it as constructive criticism. You are betting waaaaaaay too many games. 20-30 games a day with a few parlays!? There is NO way in hell that you could satisfactorily handicap 10 of those games, let alone 20-30+ games. So, essentially, you are making most of your bets on simple whims and hopes and the ever-popular "gut feeling". Of course, you are going to lose. Think about it.

[floridagolfer]

20-30 games a day? That's way, WAY too many. I don't think there's a person on the planet who's capable of properly handicapping that many. My guess is that you are risking money on plays where your lean is very slight. It takes great patience and willpower to do this. Just because there are games on the board doesn't mean you have to play them. Find your spots and when you come across a game that you feel really strongly about, then take advantage of it. But it's my experience that these don't come up very often; you MIGHT be in this kind of position once a week or maybe not even that frequently.

[feldzpar]

You are lucky (thanks to good planning) to have detailed records.

I would work on breaking them up and re braking them up to see what have so far been your strengths and weaknesses.

1) Road teams or home teams?
2) Favorites or dogs? Big favorites or big dogs?
3) Break them up by sport. Is your success better with hoops or foots? Pros or college?
4) Then go for subsets of that. See what you have excelled at, what you have stunk at, go from there with a bit or correction.

I have had to give up bets in categories that I loved more times than I can remember for reasons of financial stability.......

This advice seems obvious to most people I would assume, but for some reason it never occured to me that finding out where I am winning and losing in detail will shed light on some of my errors.

I have broken down my games over the past four months, this took a shit load of work. First I broke them into sport including college v pro, this info was interesting, but still showed a net loss for each sport.

I then went deeper and looked at dogs v faves within each sport. This was revealing and showed how I have been losing more money of small money line favorites and actually turning a profit on ML dogs from +130-+200.

I still have lots of work to do and I look forward to finding out more information about my own betting habits and shortcomings. Just wanted to say thanks for the advice, what seems obvious to you has turned into a hidden gem for me.

[vanitas]

A couple thoughts. First, you obviously need to stop betting when you are losing. As soon as I see the makings of a losing day on the horizon, I shut everything off for the night, stop checking scores, etc. -- that significantly reduces the risk of chasing a break even or profitable day with plays I did not feel were strong enough on the first run-through to wager on.

Second, how many books are you using? You need to always have multiple outs. I play 3-5 games on normal basketball nights (with both cbb and nba) and 5-10 on busy days. One season I tracked how many times picking up the extra half point either scored me a push or gotten me a win -- that season it was 26 times, 15 wins, 11 pushes. I am a 3-tier bettor as a rule -- I play 1k/1500/2000, although about 90% of my plays grade out as 1k plays. That means shopping for value was worth 26k that season. My bankroll in a given year is usually about 50k spread out at 5 different books. 26k of 50k is a pretty big deal.

So we've covered discipline and line shopping, arguably the two most important categories. We should also cover your proficiency.

Why do you think you have any advantage with respect to betting? How do you come up with your number? Or if you don't make a number, how do you come up with which teams to bet on? I have been betting on sports for about 15 years. I have collected data, built databases, enjoyed the benefits of being a scraper in the mid-90s when there was serious money to be made. Things have tightened up considerably, but I can still hit over 55% year round. I hit 64% in the nfl this season, which is of course unsustainable, but I usually get a nice piece of at least one sport each season (sport being defined as nfl/cfb/nba/cbb/nhl/mlb). For me, handicapping is about making money, and while I can beat most sports most years -- if only slightly -- I recognize what my core competencies are. I am not a good totals player, for instance, so I supplement my cbb handicapping with Helmut and RAS, two handicappers with strong track records. Many posters on this board will scoff at this tactic, but to do so is foolish if making money is your primary concern. I started late with RAS and made over 20k on his plays alone, not bad. In any event, you need to understand why you believe you have an advantage, and you need to test that hypothesis (preferably without wagering money, but it is your money to lose), and determine whether you really do have an advantage someplace. If you do, focus your efforts there -- cultivate a deep vertical expertise, and hammer away at your book. Focusing your wagering on what you are good at, rather than what is on television or what is in season, is the best way for a losing player to stop the bleeding.

Anyhow, these are the thoughts that came to mind. They are important, but this list is hardly comprehensive. I didn't read all the posts above, so I apologize to the extent I was duplicative. I wish you the best of luck going forward.