My advice is pick baseball as your first sport to study. Huge amount of free information, relatively simple game (everything can be quantified), the sabermetrics community (DON'T EVER TELL THEM YOU'RE A CAPPER! Most sabr guys equate betting on baseball to wiping your ass with the constitution), and its fairly easy to model. I would stay away from the NHL for now because that is a complex game based on team chemistry and intangibles. I'm only good at it because I was raised by a die hard Bruins fan and I follow it like a hawk. Oh, and money management. Look up everything you can find on the Kelly Criterion and study it till it makes sense plus calculus.
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Do you want to learn to handicap or do you want to learn to make money? You can make money without handicapping, pretty sure that is covered throughout this forum and 2+2.........just sayin'Comment -
You to deep for me GLComment -
Thanks for the reply, and I am with you on baseball being the sport to study. I have enjoyed spring training a ton and done decent in regards to win loss.
Sabermetrics, I have never heard of it until you filled me in. Love it. I googled the term and started reading for a couple hours and I think this concept will help me out this season, thanks for the heads up on not letting them know Im a capper. You have any SABR forums you think are valuable?
Calculus? In my dreams I could do Calc. Dude, I barely passed FST by sitting next to a smart kid. Kelly Criterion I am somewhat familiar with and will spend more time studying it as you suggested.
Thanks for all the insight, much appreciated.Comment -
Unpossible!Well, IMO, making money short term is possible without knowing how to handicap, but over a lifetime impossible.Comment -
feldzpar, there's a lot of good info and suggestions made by others in this thread. I'm sure you've already mentally or physically noted down certain adjustments which will become part of your new approach.
One suggestion I would make to go along with the sound ones of less games and capping your own is best framed in a question. It may sound silly to the quantitative bettor, but how much do you know about each sport ?
Have you played these sports, do you really understand the game, how it is played and what strategies and planning are going on within each team ? How about the ebb and flow of that league's season ? Try to get "inside the heads" of the coaches and players on the teams you watch. Team blogs and LOCAL news reporting/interviewing (local to that team) is a better source of information than the broad-stroke national media.
Consider REALLY GETTING TO KNOW some of the teams. You probably already are a "fan" of some, if not, you at least have some kind of backround with some more than others. Or they may play in your time zone more, which makes it easier. If you're afraid of leaning too much on the local team, just randomly choose your new ones. When you TUNE IN to a particular team as an UNBIASED observer, your odds of being able to predict when they are likelier to win, and when they are less likely to win improves. Think of yourself as operating a microscope. Get to know your "slides". It's a lot different than looking at line movement or trends. It's about THAT team and all that goes into their particular performance on any given night.Last edited by Snowball; 04-01-10, 10:48 PM.Comment -
Who is ras and helmutComment -
Thats some good advice, Narrow in on a few teams, especially in baseball. That will give me hundreds of game choices in the course of a season. I like it.
I understand the fundamentals of all popular sports well. I played baseball and hockey competitivly until I was 19, played Junior A hockey out west and one year of Div 3 baseball at college. Now, that bragging out of the way, I took my eyes off of the games after I gave the sports up. Have not really focused on them for 8 years, when I was really watching the Nationals were not a MLB team, the Grizzlies were leaving BC and the Supersonics still played in Seattle.
I have truly enjoyed these last 4 months of getting back into watching, and in some cases my absence from the games has been beneficial. Like you mentioned, having an objective stance on teams, Im not a fan of anyone in particular. Im here in Minnesota, the Vikings had a fun season, but other than that I really feel objectivity is in check.
Thanks again for the advice, Im going to use it this season in baseball for sure.Comment -
Alot of good points have been posted on here and being new to betting im sure will help me aswell bol to everyoneComment -
I love how this thread is shaping up, Feldzpar. Looks like you're getting some great advice from a lot of different sources.
On the topic of watching games, I agree with watching enough to have a solid understanding of the sport and building up an opinion of where each team's strengths and weaknesses lie, but at the same time, watching too much can be counter-productive. I specialize primarily in NBA, and when watching games, I only watch enough to get a feel for how the team is playing that night. The first 6 minutes and last 6 minutes of the first half are where i generally look, while checking the box score a few times in that period to observe who's building momentum going into the half. It's all a part of handicapping, and you should be looking to make your capping as efficient as possible. Watching too much in the hope of gaining an edge is just going to cut into your quality of life. You don't watch the price of stocks you own fluctuate all day, do you?Comment -
Obviously the points about betting too much in too many sports are all valid, but I'd take it one stage further.
Why not specialise in a less popular sport/league? With less obvious information around and fewer sharps bashing lines into shape there are more opportunities and they tend to last longer. Minor sports tend to be set by the more junior or less talented odds compilers (anyone with serious talent will be quickly moved on to a major sport). Big bettors betting in the thousands and tens of thousands wouldn't concentrate here because they'd struggle to get significant money down but this is no concern to you at this point with the amounts you are betting. Why compete with the big boys when you could have a smaller pond all to yourself?Comment -
I was wondering what you guys think about being a math based capper or a feel based capper? I prolly should use those terms in quotes, but I generally dislike people who quote terms.
I have been watching some of Justin7's videos on intro to math and researching the internet and I know me, and me blows at mathematical formulas outside of the basics.
A post someone wrote posed the question along the lines of "what is your edge?" I had to think a long time about that answer. In fact, Im not sure I am convinced I have one when I look at the statistical analysis some of you guys invest in capping games. My answer to the question is objectivity, bankroll depth, desire to achieve, work ethic and intuition.
I just want to see what you guys think about not basing plays off of just mathematical equations and focusing on broader sources of information and intuition. Following trends, following teams and players closely, being discipline with selections along with analyzing stats then formulating a pick based off intuition rather than determined value from an equation.
I want everyone to know that I am jealous of mathematically intelligent people and wish I could do calculus with ease or write up computer programs. I read through my post and realized it could come across as bashing, this is not my intention. I know myself well enough to be aware that math is not where I have an advantage, in fact, it would be a severe disadvantage if anything.Comment -
There are several approaches, all with negatives. I would call your feel based approach a handicapper approach. This approach takes a lot of time on each game that cannot be automated. It can't be back tested. And you are basing your decisions on information that is readily available to all (not that many use it). I have not done well with this approach. I find that I quickly decide which way I think it will go and then as I look at more information I emphasis the stuff that supports my lean and discount the other. Also, this works best when someone focuses on a single sport or two. But that's boring during the off season.
Another approach is to follow or fade picks made by touts or other posters. The problem is who to follow. Plus when a guy starts missing a lot, you will tend to jump of the bad wagon. And you will find that you have made more bets on his losers than winners.
The third approach is the one you identified as the mathematical approach. The obvious downside is that if you don't have the skills or tools, then this isn't an option. It is a lot of work, but not on the day of the game. So once done, it is an easier approach. The other problem is if you don't have a good model, you'll be making the wrong bets.
I once thought a hybrid approach would likely be the best approach. But over the years I haven't succeeded in this. I make money with with the purely math approach and lose when I throw in my own thoughts. Now if I could just discipline myself to stick to this, I would be better off.Comment
