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Some folks hit well over 60%. They better choose winners. And forget about the lines.Sorry, but you're kidding yourself. Firstly, you will not hit 60% of your picks long term. Yes you should care what the line is, because any edge you find is going to be pretty small and a half point worse here or there over the LONG RUN will cost you. Could be the difference between a decent profit and wasting your time.
Don't care how many posts you have here. Taking a bad line is the equivalent of throwing your money away.
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I only seriously wager on football, and mostly college football. Last season (2009), I hit for over 62%. This season (2010), I went 64-46-2, for slightly over 58%. That is a normal year for me. If anyone out there in cyberland doubts that people cannot consistantly hit a high perenctage of wagers (57% or over), I will be glad to take your money. I have been doing it for more years than many of you have been around. The fact is that I never shop for vig, but I DO shop for points. To me, taking team A and laying 2.5 at -110 instead of 3.5 is much more important than taking team A -3.5 at -105 instead of -110. Now things may be different in other sports, but in the sport that I wager on, the spread and total is the bottom line.
My guess is that few, if any in here bother to wager the "games of the year" in here. Many may not know what they are. They simply are future wagers on individual college and pro games. Normally these lines come out in June. The Golden Nugget in Vegas was the first book to offer them last season. It is absolutely critical to play these lines. They set up middles, as well as allow you to find bad lines. All of those lines are normally -110. If you know what you are doing (the key to any successful gaming adventure), this is when you make money, not 5 minutes before the game starts. You can set up your entire season if you can find one college team that is going to surprise in the coming season. Last season, my diamond in the rough was North Carolina State. I took them and some huge points against Ga. Tech, Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina in futures wagers. That gave me a 4-0 head start on the year. All together, I went 15-9 with my futures plays, or 62.5% My future plays accounted for over 23% of my total winning plays in 2010. Knowing how to play futures or "games of the year" as they are called in Vegas, is a critical part of a successful campaign.
Playing those "futures" also sets up middles. I know a lot of people do not play middles, but they can be exceptionally profitable. They highlite the old gambling axiom about risking the least to win the most. When you middle a wager (if you know what you are doing), the most you it will cost you is the vig. You are guaranteed no worse than a split in the action. Wagering $100.00 a pop, you will have wagered $220.00 and the worst you can do is collect $210.00. that is a net loss of $10.00. If you hit your middle, you will collect $420.00. That is a $200.00 profit. That stacks up to 20-1 odds, an absolute gold mine for gamblers that know what they are doing. All you have to do is hit 1 wager in 20 to break even. Last season I hit 3 out of 24 middles, for a profit of $960.00 based on $100.00 wagers.
That is how you make money in this game, not by drooling all over your computer tying to fine a team at -3,-108 instead of -110. You must know every angle in the book. You must be able to turn the odds around in your favor. The "counter" in blackjack turns the odds around in his/her favor by using a method to beat the game, not by changing the payouts. The counter does not look for a better payout than 3/2 on Blackjack. The poker player uses his/her skill to defeat their opponents. They do not look for a better shot than the legitimate pot odds per hand. That is one of the secrets to successful gaming in any gaming venture. The only thing more valuable to a real gambler than knowledge is luck, and no one can control their luck. You can only put yourself in a position to profit as much as possible despite your luck, if it is bad, and put yourself in a position to profit even more if your luck is good.Comment -
I appreciate anyone who is good at what they do, whether they are scalpers and bonus hunters staring at a screen for 12 hours a day, or a guy who makes his pix at -110 a side, turns off the computer and goes fishing.
There are many ways to skin a cat.Comment -
Hmmmmmmm.....seems to be a lot of resentment toward those that cap at a winning rate over the long run, I wonder why that is?Comment -
Yes, the value of the 3 is more than 5 cents. This is not news to anyone.
Shopping for vig is exactly the same as shopping for points. Every point has a price it is worth buying or selling at. -3.5 -105 is better than -3.5 -110 is better than -2.5 -200.
A) Because usually they are lying.Hmmmmmmm.....seems to be a lot of resentment toward those that cap at a winning rate over the long run, I wonder why that is?
B) If they aren't lying they have a small sample size.
C) They're usually smug gits who tard up math discussions with "just pick winners, line doesn't matter"
D) Some or all of the above.Comment -
In the long run, the books with the least amount of vig + largest limits have to have the sharpest lines or they won't survive. Darwinism.Comment
