The sharpest plays are those with the best line, whether its the favorite or the dog. Get the best line, and close yours eyes.
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The Sharp play is the one made by players who win more than they lose. It is that simple. That is because if people were honest, they would admit to being losers. 85% are. As far as line movement goes, every book in Vegas is hooked up to know when a big wager had been laid down in any particular book. All of the books can adjust their lines immediately if they so desire. It is just like when a casino runs out a card counter in Blackjack or a cheat in Poker. Every Casino in Vegas is automatically warned about that player immediately.
Believe me, there are plenty of losers out there who make large wagers. They do this to impress people, to get free comps so they can feel like big shots, or to try and prove that they are better than other people. These losers wager and lose more money than all of you Joe Pub's added up. That is because they wager thousands compared to your hundreds. They still are line movers, because of the amount of cash that they wager. The fact that they are losers has noting to do with line movement.
What you have to define is what is a "sharp". It is a player who wins more than he loses? If so, how much? Obviously it has to be over 53%,but how much over. 54%? 55%? 60% (which is a rarity though I know people who do this). And for how long? One year? 5 years? 10 years? What the professional gambler understands is that it is not the amount that you wager that makes you a success. It is the results. Whether you play 5 bucks or 5000 bucks, you play the same way. The amount of money that you are wagering should have NOTHING to do with the way you play the game. If you like Team A and the points, the amount you play should have nothing to do with your decision. Hesitation kills the average player. Second thoughts kill the average player. Looking for excuses kills the average player. You wager. You win, lose, or push. Then you go on to the next wager. It is that simple. The only thing you should be doing after a game is complete is checking your system for potential modifications. Then move on.Comment -
Wrong. Winning is ALWAYS a sharp play. Now the fact that someone thinks the line should have been different does not matter at all. If you belive this, you obviously are not a sharp. If you allow the line to keep you off a play that you know is going to win, you are NOT a sharp. You are afraid of the line. If I win 60% of my games, I could care less what the lines are. Give me 60% and I walk away with thousands of dollars every year. This is the problem with most of you guys in here. You get so wrapped up on getting the best line that you completely forget to play the best team. Just look at how many of you guys spend hours trying to get the best line. How much did you guys win? If you are honest, as a group, the answer would be NOTHING, because as a group, you guys have lost. Did anyone shy away from the Saints at +175 because it was at +200 at one time? If you did, you lost money. Now that was real smart wasn't it? How about you guys who shied away because the line went down to 4.5. I guess the Saints did not need that, did they? Concentrate on the teams, and develop a good system and you will be fine.Comment -
Can you name a Vegas casino that gives comps for big wagers? The Venetian won't give you more than a fist full of drink tickets for throwing down 10 dimes.Comment -
DEAD WRONG! First of all, it is not humanly possible to win 60% at -110 vs. mature lines with any kind of meaningful volume, so beating the closing number is critical. If you continuously take worse lines because you "don't care what the lines are", you are a loser plain and simple. If you continuously beat the closing line of an efficient mark, you are a long-term winner.
And for the umpteenth time, please stop posting in the Think Tank because you keep on proving what an ass you are with every word you type.Comment -
How could you grow tired so soon? This level of delusion is quality entertainment.Comment -
actually he is my favorite posterComment -
LT speaks truth. Listen to the man.Comment -
+1Originally posted by durito
The words "unintentially hilarious" come up in my head more often then not when reading selective posts by the legend himself.Comment -
When I wager on a bet with a house watch on the game. I always mover the money portion, not the line. So I get -120 vs -110 pn most of bets. Head fakes on games I really like ie type in the flip side of my wager to see if they will move the line of me or not. then bet the other side.Comment -
I'm of two minds on this one.
Firstly: as a modeler and when I know it's been running well (and mine can come and go just like league tendencies) I'm not afraid to go after a team that once was +209 when it presently is +175 as in the SB. In this example it was my assessment of the injury to Indy's DE Freeney. Actually I released at my pick at +188 early Saturday, but I felt then that the injury would impact the player and the game. Now, my model had Indy as approx. -115 so it was pretty easy for me. Plus living in SD I was familiar with the matchup tendencies of the teams. The Saints were similar to SD, and Indy always has problems with us, regardless of how the Saints played Minny (which we had problems with too, in at least one earlier game). One thing that I did have to do was reassess the last 3 reg season games of the season for both NO and IND as both reserved players. Basically I ran two scenarios: 1st 13 games on both, and then both with all 16 games. The run sets weren't that different as both runs favored Indy slightly. If I had gotten two widely differing run sets, I would have waved off the game.
On the other hand, you have to respect the line. Being mindful of what your model actually has in it and what it hasn't is at the heart of it. My biggest fear is the hidden injury or situation (players getting drunk or high before a game, for example, or a coaching angle) that a big money guy like BW may know about that I haven't pulled into the model (yet). If I'm running well, and I'm real sure there are no situations that I haven't factored in, I know I can beat "the biggies" since I know can scour a box score better than almost anyone.
So, whenever I see a major line move against me, I am always very suspicious the market knows something I don't. Most of the time, I just drop the game as I develop so many plays, it just isn't worth the time to really puzzle out who is right. But on a big game like the SB, I can take the time, and this time it worked. But it was only after I had worked thru everything I could find.Comment -
I usually think Bigdaddy says some stupid *hit but I concur 100% with this & I say this all the time! He hit it on the head. A win is a win, if you didn't play it because you let the best line get by you you just lost money if it wins! My motto is juice only matters when you're losing so the key is don't lose.
This think tank is 95% about how much to bet on each game & finding +EV & THP and 5% about cappin games. I don't care how good of a line you find or value in a line or can manage your bankroll, if you're pikin losers it really doesn't matter.Comment -
I'm not saying all that isn't important & -110 should not be bet if you don't have to, we know all this comes into play to be winning in the long run, line shopping is one thing, but if that line is long gone don't be afraid to bet it if it's a winner. I don't understand how betting a winner is losing because you couldn't get the best juice.Comment -
No, think of it this way: You are happy because you won ONE bet at -145 that should have been -125, so it was a "sharp" play because it won. Now make that same play at -145 225 times and go 125-100, as the true odds would imply.
What is more important: winning ONE bet that was actually -EV or profiting long term? The answer seems obvious.Comment -
hello!
just signed up at forum.sbrforum.com and want say hi to all the guys/gals of this board!Comment -
Sorry, but you're kidding yourself. Firstly, you will not hit 60% of your picks long term. Yes you should care what the line is, because any edge you find is going to be pretty small and a half point worse here or there over the LONG RUN will cost you. Could be the difference between a decent profit and wasting your time.
Don't care how many posts you have here. Taking a bad line is the equivalent of throwing your money away.
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I will let you play a game with me. I will even guarantee you a 67% winning percentage.
We will roll a fair dice. You win on 1,2,3,4. I win on 5 and 6. Since the line doesn't matter you have to lay -300.
I will play this game with you for any amount of money any number of times you want (ie until you go broke or learn that lines matter - which it is depends just how dumb you are).Comment -
For the record, your best chance to end up a winner is some sort of progressive system to try and take a 1 unit profit before you go broke. If I really wanted to prove my point I'd make you place 100 flat bets.Comment -
"I usually think Bigdaddy says some stupid *hit but I concur 100% with this & I say this all the time! He hit it on the head. A win is a win, if you didn't play it because you let the best line get by you you just lost money if it wins! My motto is juice only matters when you're losing so the key is don't lose." - The Profit
It is the WINNERS - not the LOSERS - who pay the juice. When you win laying 11:10 on a point spread you are SHORT PAID. You get only .909 of what you put up on what is ostensibly a 50-50 proposition. The loser simply drops what he put at risk.
The same thing applies when you win laying or taking a ML price. You are short paid vs the fair no vig price.
Losers pay no juice - they just lose their wager. ALL the juice is paid by the winner.
Your misunderstanding of this fundamental truth of sports betting is a common one - and a big one. Unless and until you get your head around it you are doomed. This misconception is what is making you think that over laying does not cost you anything as long as you win. The fact is that it does. And it is guaranteed to catch up to you.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-19-11, 05:19 PM.Comment -
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There is more position taking by the books than you think. If they only balanced the action (even if they could do so perfectly) - the times they get middled or sided (push-lose) by moving lines would reduce their already thin margins below what it takes to cover operating expenses. Their bottom line as to having a great year or a bad one depends more on the sides and positions they take than it does on the volume of their balanced action.Comment -
Every sportsbook is different and some are of course more aggressive than others - but the notion that all they want to do is balance the action is one of the biggest myths in the business.
Remember - unlike on our side of the window where we are laying the 11:10 and facing that .5238 break even % - the book is taking the inverse (.4762 to break even) when they take a side. So as hard as it is for us to win (and if you've been at this stuff any time at all you appreciate how tough that is) that's how hard it is for the book to lose. If they are confident in their number, there's a lot of incentive there.
For insight into line movement and how the linemakers take sides, a book called SuperBookie by Art Manteris' (former Dir. of Sportsbook Ops at the LV Hilton) is a pretty good read. It may be a little out of date - but the real fundamentals of the business never change.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-21-11, 12:50 AM.Comment
