I dont understand why people dont hedge there bets. IT seems like if people did then the bookmakers would go broke.
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I hedge almost 40% of my wagers. It has proven to save me $$$. Has only burned me a handful of times.Comment -
how exactly do you hedge your wadgers do you bet on the other team on the half betting footballComment -
If you have a +EV wager, so really should never hedge unless the hedge is +EV too. Otherwise, you would be reducing a positive position.Comment -
Hedging is very handy in Tennis matches. I have been burnt hedging badly on a few other sports though.Comment -
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well maybe not broke because they control the access TO WHO BETS which is crazy.They might catch wind of what your trying to do. there have been cases where in vegas books have refused advantage players. Funny thing is they dont do that kind of thing like booting people from WallStreet. Oh I forgot they kinda do its called cash minumium and access to credit to make money on WallStreet. Another words in order to play on WallStreet you have to have access to huge amounts of cash plus good credit rating or else you get sold a bill of goods like mutual funds in which they (the brokers) steal from all the time.Last edited by hillardoh; 10-14-09, 01:47 PM.Comment -
If your original bet is +EV, why would you want to give away10 to 20% of your profit? Doing so consistently hurts you in the long term. If you are more concerned with cashing a single bet, even if it means cashing 80% of its true worth, that you are with profiting long term, that is dangerous short-term thinking.Comment -
I agree with LT profit, but hedging bets can bet very profitable if you can find +EV on both side. I sometime hedge bets by betting live on team with high volatility. Each time there is a score change, I grab the team that is on the loosing end. But make sure you grab it with good odds for you or else you end up wasting your money. With enough lead changes you can make good money on bothside regardless of who wins. Of course there is still the possibility that you start your position on the wrong side and your team just go south from the start.Comment -
what do you mean by ev and eg ?Comment -
Expected Value and Expected Growth.
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Sorry, I misread calm's post. I thought he was implying that there was a way in which making an -EV wager didn't reduce your positive position.Comment -
Increasing your EG makes hedging in many cases worth it. Lowering your variance and increasing your +EG is much more important than always trying to get maximal +EV.Comment -
If I have no opinion on something I'll hedge it..... If i'm trying to meet a roll over I'll hedge..... If I'm betting on my own opinion I shoot myself in the head when I hedge.. so it's better to stick with your own opinion right or wrong.Comment -
Here is my take on hedging and most of my wagers are initiated with the intent to hedge them and they are mostly live wagers.
Using hedging isn’t necessarily a strategy that requires the individual parts to be +EV (example below). In addition, if you know that you are going to hedge your wager, you can wager a larger % of your bankroll than would be prudent if you were to let the wager ride. In this scenario, the larger hedged wagers, even with a reduced +EV, can return more long-term than smaller wagers at a higher +EV. Hedging also has the benefit of controlling the larger swings one might experience with strictly let-it-ride wagers.
Here’s what I mean about hedging isn’t necessarily a strategy that requires the individual parts to be +EV. Last night’s Boise game had Boise up by 4 at the half (18-14). The Matchbook live line was 9.5. During half-time, you could get Boise between 100 to +108. First, there was plenty of live action on this game. That is one thing I verify first as some games have had anemic amounts available and you don’t want to find yourself in a situation where you can’t get out of a large wager at a decent price. Totals for the game ranged from 52.5 to 56. So scoring was expected and scoring was happening. I also knew that Boise was to receive the half-time kick-off. This is a perfect hedge opportunity for me. I know that if Boise starts to march the ball down the field, the odds are going to go up significantly even though they haven’t scored yet. If Boise starts to march down the field, I can scale out by taking the other side to first start to cover most of my initial wager at risk and then to create a hedge where I am guaranteed a profit regardless of the outcome of the game. In this example, I had approx 10% of my bankroll on the half-time line and eventually scaled out to guarantee me a 2% of bankroll win regardless of the outcome of the game.
Now risk to reward. The greatest risk comes if there is a quick turnover. If that happens without a score, then I might have to hedge at a guaranteed 1% loss and with a score about a 2% loss. But this happens very infrequently and is only a small part of the overall long-term losses of this strategy. A more realistic loss is that Boise does not march down the field and it might cost me about a ¼ to ½ % loss and I might even have a small win if they can get down the field a little. My experience with these hedges proves to me that long-term, this hedge is +EV as this situation produces significant total winnings greater than the losses.
Now, the individual wagers. IMO there is probably a very good chance that all of the individual wagers were –EV. If that’s the case, how can the hedge be +EV? The hedge can be +EV because the odds of the individual wagers are based on how the game will end, not on how it will proceed. I will be hedged long before the end of the game gets here. It is the situation that I am hedging that is +EV not the individual wagers. Hope that made sense.
There are many different ways to go about wagering on anything. The bottom line for me is if I do “this”, will I collect more on my winners than I lose on my losers? Hope this helps (unless we’re butting heads). Good luck.
Joe.Comment
