Does anyone have a real handle on calculating HFA in the pros. It seems we all use 3 points for HFA but to me it does not make sense. Take a team such as STL to me they should be a negative value as compared to NYG. Even Sagarin uses approx 3. So the question is how do you calculate a good HFA value that makes sense if there even is one.
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If your assertion is that some teams have a greater HFA than others, a good start would be a regression analysis to see if past team HFA is predictive of future team HFA. You can also use regression analysis to look for relationships between attendance, elevation, or whatever you think matters and HFA.Comment -
Quantifying this seems very difficult...I am not in favor of the 3 point HFA eitherComment -
Im dont home team adavatage exists on NFL, They are still playing in the usa.
This exist only on international games for example USA Soccer team playing on Bolivia. Now Bolivia Stadium is really high on a mountain so you will see how this affect the players.Comment -
I could, but I've spent 20 years working on my nfl modelling..... I think you need to read Mr. X's post and go from there.....Comment -
A good starting point for coming up withs some sort of general theory for HFA would be to look at which statistics are most heavily impacted by HFA. For example, in baseball the home team generally has an edge in triples, walks, and strikeouts. The rest of the edges (ie, edge in runs) can be derived from those. Has anyone taken a look at where the largest edges for home teams in NFL games come from?Comment -
nice one Brian .... But I do like your way of thinking 24/7Comment -
HFA for NFL is so complicated you cannot concisely express it here.Comment -
Travel , Jet lag , Injuries , etc are the only advantages. It's loud everywhere these guy play no difference . a bunch of drunks screaming , though the refs can influence a game big time. 1 holding call on a TD and it can swing games 4-7 pts a time if they want. Look at the new England b.s roughing the passerComment
