Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[ace7550]

Have you had any bets voided? I've had some voided, even after the event. And it wasn't an obvious mistake line, just a bad one that they even changed but never quite got right. It was the soft side of an Arb, so it really hurt and wiped out months' worth of arb profit. No more arbing for me if they are going to start doing that AFTER a game wins. Maybe it's their new way to discourage arbing. It could also have been a Value Bet that they voided for many, but at least I would not have lost the other side.

GL!

Hi Barnstorm,
I've never had a book void a bet after an event unless it was a very obvious bad line. Could you give us some details on what kind of bet it was and which book it was at?

[barnstorm]

It happens sometimes but very rarely, if you pick your spots right. I suggest you to stay away from these kind of bookmakers. Stay away from unreliable bookmakers and you won't have this problem.

It was Bovada, not some shady Russian Book. I tried to reason with them, and point out that they changed this -200 line up and down many times before the game, so that proves that they reviewed the line and didn't think it was a mistake or a bad line at that time but did so after the game ended and it won. Other Books had it at -250. Bovada claimed their line should have been between -275 and -300.

I think some Books might try to set some trap games like this to see who their obvious Arbers and Value Bettors are.

[ace7550]

It was Bovada, not some shady Russian Book. I tried to reason with them, and point out that they changed this -200 line up and down many times before the game, so that proves that they reviewed the line and didn't think it was a mistake or a bad line at that time but did so after the game ended and it won. Other Books had it at -250. Bovada claimed their line should have been between -275 and -300.

I think some Books might try to set some trap games like this to see who their obvious Arbers and Value Bettors are.

So the line moved repeatedly, you bet it, and then after the game they cancelled it? -200 when other books have -250 is not a "bad" line. Anyone who is price shopping for that game is going to bet that. Have you considered filing an SBR complaint?

[barnstorm]

So the line moved repeatedly, you bet it, and then after the game they cancelled it? -200 when other books have -250 is not a "bad" line. Anyone who is price shopping for that game is going to bet that. Have you considered filing an SBR complaint?

Right.

Yeah, I should have filed a complaint with SBR, but it's been over a year now.

[ace7550]

Right.

Yeah, I should have filed a complaint with SBR, but it's been over a year now.

Well it's good to know. I've bet lines like that at Bovada and they never canceled them but I will be wary for it. Thanks for sharing.

[DISTROYA]

I use:
Fairlay (for Pinnacle lines)
5Dimes*********
BetOnline
Intertops********
Bookmaker/Diamond*****
WagerWeb***********
Bovada***********
Jazz? Same as SBGGlobal*****
BetEast/BetBaller - Bitcoin Books, same as VitaBet.

Will fund GTBets and YouWager soon.******** AND ******
ALL THE ****** will limit/ban/drastically reduce if arbing. Dont bother.

[barnstorm]

I use:
Fairlay (for Pinnacle lines)
5Dimes*********
BetOnline
Intertops********
Bookmaker/Diamond*****
WagerWeb***********
Bovada***********
Jazz? Same as SBGGlobal*****
BetEast/BetBaller - Bitcoin Books, same as VitaBet.

Will fund GTBets and YouWager soon.******** AND ******
ALL THE ****** will limit/ban/drastically reduce if arbing. Dont bother.

Yes, I eventually got banned by CaribSports, WagerWeb, and GTBets, And warned by 5Dimes and Bovada. I still have BetOnline, Fairlay and MyBookie. And I still have accounts but am not active with Intertops, YouWager, Bookmaker, etc., and Bitcoin Books NitrogenSports, Bitcoin Rush, BetBTC and BetcoinSports. I also lost a lot to a Bitcoin Book called PowerBet.io that took the money and ran.

[gauchojake]

One of my favorite threads. Was thinking about this today so thought I would bump for anyone still reading the think tank

[Sawyer]

Wow!


I can't believe it's been 13 years since I started this thread!


FYI, I retired last year. I'm done with arbitrage/value betting completely and moved on to other things.


From my observations:


Value betting hasn't been very profitable in recent years. The Pinnacle lean is almost gone, and there's too much market manipulation. When compared to value betting, arbitrage was clearly the better option. However, in the early years, value betting was the clear winner.

Now, because of AI sh*t, arbitrage betting has become a thing of the past. Maybe if you're living in a third-world country with soft bookmakers, you still have a shot. But most bookmakers are not as naive as they were 10 years ago.

Feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about arbitrage (and bitcoin)

[barnstorm]

Wow!

I can't believe it's been 13 years since I started this thread!

FYI, I retired last year. I'm done with arbitrage/value betting completely and moved on to other things.

From my observations:

Value betting hasn't been very profitable in recent years. The Pinnacle lean is almost gone, and there's too much market manipulation. When compared to value betting, arbitrage was clearly the better option. However, in the early years, value betting was the clear winner.

Now, because of AI sh*t, arbitrage betting has become a thing of the past. Maybe if you're living in a third-world country with soft bookmakers, you still have a shot. But most bookmakers are not as naive as they were 10 years ago.

Feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about arbitrage (and bitcoin)

I also moved on to Crypto. I only had a very short two-year career with Arbing, but it got me into crypto early, so that was good. I'm positioning myself with AI cryptos for now. A lot easier money than sports betting, although they just took a big dump! I bought the dip.

Do you think the sports lines are a lot sharper now, with all the analytics and syndicates keeping the books in line? It maybe even gives the squares a better shot since the sharps, analytics and syndicates keep the lines on favorites in check? Favs had a pretty good year in the NFL this year.

[biggie12]

Wow!


I can't believe it's been 13 years since I started this thread!


FYI, I retired last year. I'm done with arbitrage/value betting completely and moved on to other things.


From my observations:


Value betting hasn't been very profitable in recent years. The Pinnacle lean is almost gone, and there's too much market manipulation. When compared to value betting, arbitrage was clearly the better option. However, in the early years, value betting was the clear winner.

Now, because of AI sh*t, arbitrage betting has become a thing of the past. Maybe if you're living in a third-world country with soft bookmakers, you still have a shot. But most bookmakers are not as naive as they were 10 years ago.

Feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about arbitrage (and bitcoin)

Sawyer I've been trying to tell people this for the last couple years. Didn't realize you were a decade ahead of me.

[biggie12]

Sawyer I've been trying to tell people this for the last couple years. Didn't realize you were a decade ahead of me.

The only difference between now and then is moving money in crypto books is alot easier these days and fees are next to nothing. Very had finding consistent Arb's tho since most of the crypto sportsbooks use the same two line providers

[Sawyer]

I also moved on to Crypto. I only had a very short two-year career with Arbing, but it got me into crypto early, so that was good. I'm positioning myself with AI cryptos for now. A lot easier money than sports betting, although they just took a big dump! I bought the dip.

Do you think the sports lines are a lot sharper now, with all the analytics and syndicates keeping the books in line? It maybe even gives the squares a better shot since the sharps, analytics and syndicates keep the lines on favorites in check? Favs had a pretty good year in the NFL this year.

Definetely sharper, much more harder.

About Bitcoin and Crypto, I prefer to stick with Bitcoin only.

[barnstorm]

I really think analytics and A.I. and betting syndicates and sharper linesmakers at the Books and even some squares getting a little more educated and informed has resulted in sharper lines the last year or two. That makes it harder for sharps and value bettors to find an edge.

I would love to find a database search that shows whether final scores are now closer to the closing line than they used to be 2-3 or more years ago. I would wager they are closer now.

We may need an A.I. Betting Agent to increase our R.O.I.! Check out this new Agent called BillyBets! The guys behind it are expereinced bettors and they have programmed him to learn a lot. Check out their site, their Discord, and their X, and search for BillyBets on YouTube or X. I probably can't post links so I won't.

[Tomatero]

Nice thread

[Tomatero]

Basically you have to look for arbitrage bets against Pinnacle and only bet on the other book.

[stevenash]

Nice thread

Agreed