CLV and predictive analysis for professionals

[LordTargaryen]

Hello friends, I've been away from the forum for nine years, thanks in part to an unplanned vacation at Club Fed.

I'm getting back into things and I saw an interesting post on a bizarre thread that spoke to this whole issue of closing line value, which I think is a more efficient method of calculating opportunities caused by the public moving lines. (I welcome correction on this analysis).

I like the idea of having [systems] do the work for me, so the question is, do any of you all trust these folks, and secondly, are any of their strategies worthwhile? Can I really abandon all of my spreadsheets and analysis and go with [system] picks? I'm interested in MLB and NBA action.

TIA

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hi. How is Mr Federer?

Yes, this has been discussed. Over time, BTCL value is more predictive of success than one's recent historical success.

Just so much variance in sports. If CL-value is like adding +1 points to your ticket, that's just hard to beat.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Take a look at the Nba GM2 total, as an example.

If u had UNder 215 on your ticket, that was +1.5 pts of line value vs the closing line. Depending on what line u got, it MAY have been a loss on 212 or push on 213.

So many games are like that. Falls close to the #, so it matters what line u got. As for creating a portfolio filled w/ +CLV, very difficult.

[Believe_EMT]

my entire MLB approach is built around CLV with a touch of day trading.

still unclear as to what capacity you think Bet Labs would prove effective in being early enough to identify which way a line is going to trend. unless they're providing selections 12-14 hours before game time (for 7 pm EST starts) i don't see how you will not end up chasing steam and getting less than ideal numbers. or is this an attempt on your part to spend money on fading the public? or, are you new to the marketing team at bet labs and are grinding away to grow the brand?

[gojetsgomoxies]

it is very interesting..

obviously, getting the best line possible is paramount when your winning edge (if you have one) is so small.

i have noticed line movement patterns in the only two sports i watch closely. in CFB, significant large openers (say 20+ points) tend to get much bigger. and in MLB, i observe the same thing (the market seems to jump on large favorite openers). NO IDEA if this 1) is just recent, 2) line movements i see are realistic. but i am quite sure it's in the data i look at every day/week

[gojetsgomoxies]

my entire MLB approach is built around CLV with a touch of day trading.

still unclear as to what capacity you think Bet Labs would prove effective in being early enough to identify which way a line is going to trend. unless they're providing selections 12-14 hours before game time (for 7 pm EST starts) i don't see how you will not end up chasing steam and getting less than ideal numbers. or is this an attempt on your part to spend money on fading the public? or, are you new to the marketing team at bet labs and are grinding away to grow the brand?

i put in a subsequent comment, but what about analyzing patterns/situations in general?

[Waterstpub87]

it is very interesting..

obviously, getting the best line possible is paramount when your winning edge (if you have one) is so small.

i have noticed line movement patterns in the only two sports i watch closely. in CFB, significant large openers (say 20+ points) tend to get much bigger. and in MLB, i observe the same thing (the market seems to jump on large favorite openers). NO IDEA if this 1) is just recent, 2) line movements i see are realistic. but i am quite sure it's in the data i look at every day/week

I disagree on the CFB. They tend to go down earlier, and rise midweek. On the dogs 20+ I bet last year, I average half a point beating the close. But Only 37 or so.

[Believe_EMT]

i put in a subsequent comment, but what about analyzing patterns/situations in general?

i created this out of part laziness and part recognition that the opinions of thousands upon thousands of bettors are better than mine. closest thing i found to an auto pilot approach.

i'm sure if i did more intense research i could identify situations to raise or lower my stake, but not convinced the benefit would justify the cost.

but if you mean just patterns/situations in general, outside of MLB or my personal approach, can we still just bet faves and overs on NFL openers, or did those days pass? but the only one i ever devoted time to. time being the last 18 seconds it took to recall and write that i feel like it used to be a thing in the NFL.

[joey sangria]

9 years is a long time.........