What's your best tool to help get an edge?

[dpark80]

Are you asking me? If so, I always use the opening lines on oddsshark.com when entering results to track historically using my spreadsheet. Since the lines can move quite a bit after opening lines, I don't use those towards my spreadsheet for historical data since it would be like tracking a moving target.

When I'm ready to put a wager on a game that I've found has an edge, if the lines have moved out of range from the opening line enough that there's no longer an edge or swings to the other team, then I don't bet on the game.

For this year, I'm starting to track the games I didn't bet because the lines moved out of range from the opening lines enough to no longer give me an edge or swing the other way. So far I would have gone 3-5-1 if I had made those bets.

I try to bet the during the morning of the day the game is played.

how are you doing against the closing line on those bets?

[danshan11]

no i meant how are your bets doing against the closing line
you bet at -115 and the pinnacle closing line is -125 or is it -105
are the lines moving your way after you bet enough to have an edge or are they moving against you?

you need to know this very important step to learn a few things

1 if you have an edge
2 if you are just lucky
3 if the consensus is saying you bet at a good number

example if the line is now -110 and you say oh great my super computer says that is a winner and you bet at -110 and it closes at -130 that generally means it was a good bet and the betting consensus agreed with you, to me these are good things!

[dpark80]

I pretty much agree with you. A while back, I started a thread here called "Leveraging the sports books lines against them". If your approach is a can be expressed as an algorithm, then I would suggest back testing over several past seasons. That would depend on what data elements are involved. I have a lot of past data I would share with you if it would be helpful..

Unfortunately, my expertise is not in coding or mathematics. I'm tracking results manually through excel. I'm not smart enough to put all this into an algorithm. I've tried going back over several past seasons, but I couldn't find anywhere that had Oddshark's historical opening lines. I need to use the opening lines for an apples to apples comparison.
I've read a lot of your posts and have enjoyed reading your thoughts from an analytical/statistical perspective. Curious to see if you've found a worthwhile edge in any of the sports (don't have to give details, just the sport). So far NBA has been the most promising for me. I tried using the same concepts in MLB for a time last year, but the results were mixed at best. A lot more variables due to different pitchers, relief pitchers, etc. I never tried NFL since there's only a few games each season, so it seems like there's so much volatility. But I've been tracking the games this year to see if there's any edge that can be found.

[danshan11]

and dude opening lines are useless closed lines are what matter, opening lines are not good for anything except to see if there was enough room in that games line to make a profit, but opening lines have way less predictive value

[dpark80]

Ok, I got you. Honestly, I haven't closely tracked the closing lines vs. the line I bought in at. I would say it's been 50-50, sometimes the line moved in my favor, sometimes it didn't. For NBA games, I always bet against the spread (getting points or giving points).

I understand that yes, it's a good thing to have bought in at a cheaper price than the closing price, but does always agreeing with the betting consensus necessarily equate to getting a noteworthy edge?

no i meant how are your bets doing against the closing line
you bet at -115 and the pinnacle closing line is -125 or is it -105
are the lines moving your way after you bet enough to have an edge or are they moving against you?

you need to know this very important step to learn a few things

1 if you have an edge
2 if you are just lucky
3 if the consensus is saying you bet at a good number

example if the line is now -110 and you say oh great my super computer says that is a winner and you bet at -110 and it closes at -130 that generally means it was a good bet and the betting consensus agreed with you, to me these are good things!

[dpark80]

and dude opening lines are useless closed lines are what matter, opening lines are not good for anything except to see if there was enough room in that games line to make a profit, but opening lines have way less predictive value

I think opening lines do have some value because they're more reflective of what the oddsmaker thinks what the outcome of the game will be. The closing line reflects the shift to what the public thinks.

I use opening lines as the basis because I need time to evaluate each game and then make the bets. It's harder to do all that waiting to see where the line settles at right before the game.

[danshan11]

you can see here the opening line is not as accurate as the closing line

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/nbaresults.php

and if you look at past years the closing line blows away the opening line, this page does not have enough data to show you the true the difference but its a huge difference.

[danshan11]

Ok, I got you. Honestly, I haven't closely tracked the closing lines vs. the line I bought in at. I would say it's been 50-50, sometimes the line moved in my favor, sometimes it didn't. For NBA games, I always bet against the spread (getting points or giving points).

I understand that yes, it's a good thing to have bought in at a cheaper price than the closing price, but does always agreeing with the betting consensus necessarily equate to getting a noteworthy edge?

you tell me if it matters

Cardinals 2018	bet	to win	spent	won	net
real line -120	120	100	19440	19360	-80
with a dime -110	110	100	17820	19360	1540

and you can do this with nearly any team.

[dpark80]

I wonder how close the numbers would be if you take out obvious movements in line like a star player on a team being expected to play or is day to day when the opening line was set ending up not playing and moving the line.

you can see here the opening line is not as accurate as the closing line

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/nbaresults.php

and if you look at past years the closing line blows away the opening line, this page does not have enough data to show you the true the difference but its a huge difference.

[danshan11]

that is the point of the closing line, you also need to remember the opening line contains more marketing than the closing line.

if they think they can get -9 on the Pats even though they know its worth 7 they will try and not because 9 is indicative of the true implied

[dpark80]

Yes, that's why if the line moves too much out of the range of the opening line, I don't put a bet on it.

that is the point of the closing line, you also need to remember the opening line contains more marketing than the closing line.

if they think they can get -9 on the Pats even though they know its worth 7 they will try and not because 9 is indicative of the true implied

[danshan11]

the point is the opening line means nothing, if you model on BOL opening lines you will struggle, those lines are not sharp enough to get any edge imo. I still think most would be better off modeling off of BOL openers its better than flipping coins!

[danshan11]

if you want to know if you actually have an edge the only way to know is to see if you beat the line by enough to cover the margin

[Alfa1234]

the point is the opening line means nothing, if you model on BOL opening lines you will struggle, those lines are not sharp enough to get any edge imo. I still think most would be better off modeling off of BOL openers its better than flipping coins!

This does not make sense, if those lines aren't sharp there is a bigger edge to be gained, not a smaller one.

[Bsims]

I've tried going back over several past seasons, but I couldn't find anywhere that had Oddshark's historical opening lines. I need to use the opening lines for an apples to apples comparison.
I've read a lot of your posts and have enjoyed reading your thoughts from an analytical/statistical perspective. Curious to see if you've found a worthwhile edge in any of the sports (don't have to give details, just the sport).

SBR archives has opening and closing lines.

https://www.sportsbookreviewsonline.com/scoresoddsarchives/nba/nbaoddsarchives.htm

I've spent thousands of hours pursuing this stuff since I retired 20 years ago. I've analyzed data, written systems, back tested, implemented real approaches, and wagered on these. I would estimate that I've spent 25,000 hours doing this (I had major medical issues that cost me a couple of years). I can't even estimate how many lines of code I've written. For instance my current project on college basketball has 3 programs and about 3,000 lines of code so far. I've probably done a couple dozen projects of this size over the years.

Now to answer your question, are any of them worthwhile? One! That's right only one is a proven winner year after year. And it's very good. Unfortunately, all of the others have cost me money. In some years I've made money and others I've lost. Over the 20 years, I am a net loser. That raises another question. Why do I continue to do this? Because I love it. I'm not able to do almost all the things I used to do because of physical limitations. But, by God, I can still think and write code. So I'll continue on. Maybe this CBB system I'm working on will be number 2. Don't bet on it, but I will.

So good luck to you and all the other guys chasing the "get rich via sports gambling" dream. My advice. Enjoy the journey.

[danshan11]

This does not make sense, if those lines aren't sharp there is a bigger edge to be gained, not a smaller one.

if a person thinks they can "pick winners" they are better off using BOL openers as their model and playing games that are off the BOL openers line than they are "picking winners"

[dpark80]

So I think we may both be approaching it differently, but the end result may be the same. I am looking at opening lines to look for matchups that my spreadsheet has determined is not a 50/50 chance of winning either side of the opening line. If the game has a 57% chance or greater of tilting toward one team over the other, then I will bet on it. I've come up with about 200 different matchup scenarios in NBA games, and about 20 of them I have having significant enough difference from a 50/50 tossup to be able to bet on.

I believe your assumption is that by the time the line closes, the games have a 50/50 tossup on either side of the closing line. If my spreadsheet is correct, then the lines should move with me more often than not. My friend has been making bets with my picks since January of last year. He follows the sharp trends more than I do, but he mentioned that the 3 picks I made this morning has moved with us while 1 pick moved against us.

I still believe tracking opening lines historically is still worthwhile because I am looking for any matchup advantage based on the opening line. If I find an advantage based on the matchup and the opening line and the line hasn't moved too far away from the opening line, then I am going to make a bet. The only way I can tell if my spreadsheet is finding a real trend based on the opening line is by tracking the results of the games against the opening line.

if you want to know if you actually have an edge the only way to know is to see if you beat the line by enough to cover the margin

[danshan11]

good start of course but if you want to KNOW (kinda,LOL) you need to track the number you bet at and the number the line closed at, this is the whole betting communities best way to tell if we made "good" bets and bets that are better than the margin.

Cardinals 2018	bet	to win	spent	won	net
real line -120	120	100	19440	19360	-80
with a dime -110	110	100	17820	19360	1540

this little dumb chart is basically saying the Cards are gonna win X amount of games and we know this because we know the line is efficient so truly the only way to win is to get these same bets at a better price, so in order for our bets to work we need to make sure we are achieving this same result on average in our bets. its not perfect like a coin toss but it is accepted generally as the most effective method to measure success we have at this point.

[danshan11]

also you can use any method you like to choose bets but the result has to be the same pay -110 for -120 closed lines so we can make some money, how you get that can include opening, closing, ball size, weather, guts and or handicapping but the result has to be the same

[nash13]

no it is all about timing of you bet. since the lines change and differ from minute to minute it is better to determine a minimum edge of % that has to be beaten compared to your estimated line.
i do this a lot with several ratings and ranking methods.
if my calculated winning percentage has a 5% edge vs the moneyline it qualifies for me.
it has been very successful in Tennis and US sports so far.

if you want any questions feel free to message me and i can show you some examples to calculate them yourself.

[BigdaddyQH]

What all of you fail to consider is that you do NOT get to see the true opening line. You get to see the line AFTER the high rollers have had a chance to wager on the game or contest. No one in here wagers that kind of money, or should I say that very few people in here wager that kind of money. I do because I can afford it. It is that simple. The more you wager, the better chance you have of winning because the more perks the Sports Books will offer you to play in their club. If you have a solid knowledge of the sport you are wagering on (wager more than one sport seriously and you are nothing but a degenerate loser) you can put these perks to very good use. Notice I said the "High Rollers", not the sharps, because most high rollers are losers, just like you guys. The only difference is that after a big loss, you guys watch the porn flicks and those guys get the real thing.

[danshan11]

no it is all about timing of you bet. since the lines change and differ from minute to minute it is better to determine a minimum edge of % that has to be beaten compared to your estimated line.
i do this a lot with several ratings and ranking methods.
if my calculated winning percentage has a 5% edge vs the moneyline it qualifies for me.
it has been very successful in Tennis and US sports so far.

if you want any questions feel free to message me and i can show you some examples to calculate them yourself.

give me 1 example of this strategy please

[danshan11]

What all of you fail to consider is that you do NOT get to see the true opening line. You get to see the line AFTER the high rollers have had a chance to wager on the game or contest. No one in here wagers that kind of money, or should I say that very few people in here wager that kind of money. I do because I can afford it. It is that simple. The more you wager, the better chance you have of winning because the more perks the Sports Books will offer you to play in their club. If you have a solid knowledge of the sport you are wagering on (wager more than one sport seriously and you are nothing but a degenerate loser) you can put these perks to very good use. Notice I said the "High Rollers", not the sharps, because most high rollers are losers, just like you guys. The only difference is that after a big loss, you guys watch the porn flicks and those guys get the real thing.

can you give us an example of one line you got recently that we could have never gotten and can you please explain why they would give you a special line

[nash13]

give me 1 example of this strategy please

no problem. i have several approaches:

https://medium.com/s/story/how-i-outsmarted-fivethirtyeights-nfl-forecasting-algorithm-592a301fa318

https://medium.com/@adamchernoff/how-to-create-and-use-nfl-power-ratings-to-beat-the-point-spread-3fa4c3ecdc22

these are good articles too start your journey, don't copy and past, i calculate them on my own estimations.
if my calculated ML% is 5% higher than the offered ML Odds i take the bet.

[nash13]

For Example: i have 4 resources for tennis

http://www.tennisabstract.com/

https://www.masseyratings.com/

http://www.tennisbetting365.com/

http://www.oncourt.info/

these provide 3-4 ratings and estimations for each game.
i take them in my own formula and estimate my own wp%.
after that i compare my odd to Pinnacle and 5Dimes. if there is a reasonable margin, i take the bet.

[danshan11]

and how does your model do against the closing line?

[nash13]

and how does your model do against the closing line?

the closing line odds and the opening line odds have no significant differences in profit for me thus far.
for me this means at times i beat the closing line and at times not.

[danshan11]

you bet at ? avg you close at ? avg?

[chilidog]

What all of you fail to consider is that you do NOT get to see the true opening line. You get to see the line AFTER the high rollers have had a chance to wager on the game or contest. No one in here wagers that kind of money, or should I say that very few people in here wager that kind of money. I do because I can afford it. It is that simple. The more you wager, the better chance you have of winning because the more perks the Sports Books will offer you to play in their club. If you have a solid knowledge of the sport you are wagering on (wager more than one sport seriously and you are nothing but a degenerate loser) you can put these perks to very good use. Notice I said the "High Rollers", not the sharps, because most high rollers are losers, just like you guys. The only difference is that after a big loss, you guys watch the porn flicks and those guys get the real thing.

Barry doesn't have any actual experience at sportsbooks. His posts are pure comedic gold.

[danshan11]

I figured that dude just gets drunk and posts on the forum, kinda like drunk dialing

[Charlies_Hustle2]

Hello...

Who tells you that beating the closing line is how it's done? Think about it.... Think hard! Was it a Pinny youtube video, a writeup by a some other book, an idiot tout like Steve Stevens or Vegas Dave? Who put this seed in your head?

Now ask yourself this! Which line is the sharpest line! If you know anything about efficient markets its the closing line which is the sharpest. Fighting it, trying to beat it is pretty much impossible. Learn how to use it and you'll make money. No way in hell I'm telling anyone how to do it but those hwo know who I am, know I make money and I make the most money when placing bets right before tip off, first pitch, etc.

I use two tools: common sense and SDQL. SDQL doesn't provide opening and intra day lines, the only thing I work with is closing lines (or whatever you want to call SDQL's closing lines). With that said danshan is either a) a troll sent by the books to off track all of you or b) a novice bettor who read a few books and has been sent searching in the wrong direction.

I'll leave this screen shot of an unders play I've been using lately, which is only the tip of an iceberg...

https://imgur.com/a/3djCdLg

...Good bye

[danshan11]

thanks for the input, I am surely a novice and I have no clue at all. I am into reading and studying and into valuing things including sports bets. I cant imagine any other way to win then to buy cheap.
if we can agree the line is efficient then how can we win if we dont "beat the line"

we pick our spots, LOL now that is funny, the line is still efficient on those spots and I have seen no evidence of someone successfully long term picking their spots not saying it does not exist, I just have never seen or met anyone yet that can.

we can out handicap the entire betting community which is the same as saying the line is not efficient and we know it is.

[Charlies_Hustle2]

The closing line is efficient and accurate, you just need to understand how the books set it, why they set it and understand when it is most vulnerable.

[danshan11]

why do i need to understand that can you please break it down
1 how they set it why do I need to know this? I think they use power ratings and adjust for what they consider and have data to backup public sentiment on particular events and teams
2 why they set it why do I need to know this? I think they set a line to try and draw attention from the most bettors they can on each game, if they set Patriots -10 when it should be -3 they will get way too much action on one side which in a sense would eliminate the other team buyers, so they try and set it so they can get more buyers by making it appealing to both sides.
3 vulnerable??? My only response to this is huh?

thanks in advance!

[Charlies_Hustle2]

I meant exactly that, find out how that line is calculated.

Would you walk in to a boxing ring and fight someone you know nothing about?? Well, that's what you are doing if you don't understand why that opening line is that opening line. And if you don't understand why that opening line moved, than you don't understand how taht fighter has trained. So now you are facing a fighter you a) don't know and b) have no idea how he became- or if he is any good.

Of course they are trying to balance cash, they better be other wise they won't last long.

It's not that difficult.

Vulnerable; if the line is worth playing, if you put yourself in a position where your chances of winning is more than 52%.

My only suggestion to someone as curious as you is to walk away from sportsbetting, look in to FX trading. Learn how to read charts, understand what patterns are, breakouts, tunnels, shooting stars, bands, EMA's, RSI's and all of that good stuff. Then come back.

If you truely are as curious as you market yourself, you'll succeed.