Looking for the most square site showing public concensus bet%. If you're going to fade the public you want to make sure you're fading the WORST the public has to offer.
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Not consensus, but if you want to see the squarest bets, check most popular bets at SIA and sportsbook.ag Those are the squarest.Comment -
See post #6 in thread best free college football capper??. It's like having a second income.
SBR the gift that keeps on giving!Comment -
A square bet is just one with no edge. Flip a coin, you get the same effect.Comment -
This oneComment -
Since 2008 47% Or less consensus at covers home team only is 261-207. Not great but +33.3 units. Most game neutral site today so probably nothing. Sorry I'm new late to the partyComment -
Btp tbhComment -
If 99% of bettors lose, fading people seems like a simple strategy, add proper money management combined with reasonable odds and voila...should be a money maker.Comment -
Pregame.com has a "Bet %" link that has exactly what you are looking for......Comment -
I had one of my worst football seasons in 10 years. I blame it on multiple websites "money percentages - public flow"
These websites are practically for entertainment value and nothing more.
You're better off and wagering your own style without looking at the flow of money. It's meaningless.Comment -
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Just shake it off. Clear your thoughts. Start fresh. All you can do when you're on TILT.
Another website called SportsInsights.com was a damn good one about 4-5 years ago. Then all of a sudden it didn't work anymore. Especially this year. I didn't use them exclusively... but I feel sorry for the ones that pay for a yearly membership. They base everything on fading public and money flow. -4.1 units in the NFL this year... and I believe -19 units in college football the website is indicating. That's horrible.
Fading public just isn't working anymore.Comment -
Sportsbook.com works that way. They list the most popular bets. Today, most popular was Washington -3, second was Dal +3. Third Wash ML -140, fourth Over 43. That is simply the truth, I am sure those were the four most popular bets, even if the first two are opposing sides.
OTOH, SIA list the 5 most popular games, and the bet% on each. Today most popular was WSH-DAL ML, 70-30 in favor of Wash. Second was NHL Buff - Van, 69-31 for Van (remember, they are Canadians, hockey gets lots of action). Fifth was NBA Tor ML over LAL (83-17) SIA offer "bet the best five parlay", of course at ridiculous prices.
Still, knowing such bets could be worthwhile if you want to cover your sharp plays. Betting them often, even for small bets may catch the eye of the risk management guys, and let you bet for a while.Comment -
Thanks for the post CM. I want to confirm what you're saying though.. so I'm understanding your terminology.
Based upon what you typed. If I took Washington -3 that would be considered SHARP? So going with the Public is considered Sharp in your eyes?
And if I'm wagering sharp all the time with higher wagers... my account would be considered reduced limits?Comment -
Public plays are usually not considered sharp (even less when the book shades the line to give bad odds to the public side). Sharp plays are often placed at smaller markets (props, game halves/quarters, hoops totals, etc). If you place only those and you are beating the book, risk management may label you sharp and reduce your limits. That is where playing typical square plays (public sides, some parlays, teasers, even playing a bit in the casino) may help you to cover.Comment -
the most accurate numbers come from scoresandodds.com, they have it all, public betting trends, game trends, and power lines....you will win money consistently fading the public!!Comment -
I don't know why anyone would want to indiscriminately fade the public, to the exclusion of other, more rational forms of handicapping. I certainly take a look at public %'s and it sometimes influences my decisions, but it's never the sole reason, or even the primary reason, for placing a wager.
Anyone who fades the public, as a rule without exception, is basically admitting they don't know what the hell they're doing.Comment -
why would not just do the opposite, following the sharpest books and pick off shitty lines at square books?
you can talk shit about fading the public all you want (i'll even give you the benefit of the doubt on data integrity) but it simply highlights your ignorance to some basic mathematical concepts
RE: Gamblers RuinComment -
Well, that can be effective but all you're really doing is tailing sharp action. It's not like you've uncorked some ancient, mystical secret to become a winning gambler. But what you're advising isn't exactly an indiscriminate "fade the public" system. You're just line shopping.
People tend to over-complicate what really is a fairly basic practice... bet the team you think will cover the spread. Why this befuddles people time and time again is because people harbor so many preconceived notions about a team or an outcome without regard to a host of variables that can influence an outcome... most notably the fact that the game is played by human beings, therefore psychology becomes a major factor. But people always tend to bet games like the outcome is determined by a computer simulation and that the "better" team is the better bet.
Again, fading the public is ultimately going to work about 50% of the time. It's not a magic bullet. If you fade the public when there's RLM and get the best number at a square book, sure, I guess that enhances your odds a bit. But like I said, you're just piggybacking sharp action. You're following guys who've already done the legwork and have chosen a side. It's a passive form of gambling. I'd rather be the sharp action than follow the sharp action. I want to win/lose on my own terms.Comment -
who are considered some of the sharp books and square ones to compare lines to? Thanks for any help and guidanceComment -
Download onside sports app check the games under feed it bases there percentages off what there users pick.....most of them are losers anytime u see a spread or total with 75 or more on one side the other hits about 70 percentComment -
here.Comment
....do u have to have an I phone to get the plays?thanks