Can anyone post this for me for the last 5 years as well as this season? I am looking for the record of the winning team on sunday night baseball the following game.
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Appears to be a good fade since 2009. Almost 11%ROI.
SU:
102-113 (-0.08, 47.4%) avg line: -125.5 / 113.3 on / against: -$3,864 / +$2,611 ROI: -13.5% / +10.9%Comment -
how do we know if their next game was on Monday or Tuesday?Comment -
Since 2009, eliminating playoffs and the 6 games that fell in series game 4. A total of 10 games fell on Wed, Thurs and Fri.
Monday
Tuesday55-66 (-0.47, 45.5%) avg line: -128.1 / 116.0 on / against: -$3,178 / +$2,407 ROI: -19.6% / +18.2%
27-31 (0.50, 46.6%) avg line: -126.3 / 113.8 on / against: -$1,087 / +$762 ROI: -13.9% / +11.7% Comment -
Nice, thanks for that JMon...only logic being what do we care if the won and then had a day off.Comment -
Been using it in my handicapping formula forever.Comment -
My findings of the spot without losing too much integrity are below. Personally I am unsure as it appears to be trending (nothing wrong with riding the wave, but shouldn't be trusted...IMO). I can only go as far back as 2004 with data so take the following with a grain of salt. The time/start of Sunday night baseball and it's prime time should be discussed. So logic of a let down spot off a big win holds somewhat true? But why losing years in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008 and not 2007 which was a big year to fade? Overall since 2009, no losing years fading the parameters below. Discuss?? I'm interested in this. Keep in mind if anyone of you guys have a parameter/filter let me know and I can test it.
Parameters: We fade the team in their next game
1. Had Sunday night game (prime time) and won
2. Is a favorite between -105 > line > -230 or a dog between 170> line > 125 (this is merely overfitting, thus stands true on historic lines but not future lines)
3. No more than 1 days rest
4. Playoffs not included
Not a great sample, but merely a spot play since 2007
Overall:
Reason of question as why it needs discussion..73-106 (-0.74, 40.8%) avg line: -132.4 / 120.6 on / against: -$7,055 / +$5,937 ROI: -28.2% / +30.4%
Losing years:
2008:
2006:14-8 (-0.09, 63.6%) avg line: -130.5 / 118.6 on / against: +$395 / -$525 ROI: +13.1% / -22.1%
2005:15-14 (-1.17, 51.7%) avg line: -120.2 / 110.2 on / against: -$80 / -$50 ROI: -2.1% / -1.6%
2004:13-6 (-0.05, 68.4%) avg line: -128.2 / 116.6 on / against: +$595 / -$675 ROI: +22.5% / -31.2%
12-7 (1.42, 63.2%) avg line: -133.7 / 121.1 on / against: +$350 / -$420 ROI: +12.9% / -19.9% Comment -
^ interleague play and road teams do better on the fade here.. Let me know if you want to see the data.Comment
