Do you think Ken Pomeroy wins?

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  • Emily_Haines
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-14-09
    • 15917

    #1
    Do you think Ken Pomeroy wins?
    He is basically the ultimate model guy. He is every bit as talented when it comes to statistics as any of the well know touts like Dr. Bob. If he is the god when it comes to models why does he have to sell access to his stats for $20 per year?

    He does put out predicted scores on every game but I have never bothered to track and see if these picks win or not. I just assume they don't since I have not seen a thread where anybody has tracked and recorded them long term. Also if they did win I would think he could get more than $20/year. Well at least he has price he service correctly unlike the touts who all think they should get $1000+ per year.
  • Romanov
    SBR MVP
    • 10-08-10
    • 4137

    #2
    Already priced into the market
    Comment
    • uva3021
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 03-01-07
      • 537

      #3
      linesmakers use pomeroy now, maybe 4-5 years ago
      Comment
      • TPowell
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-21-08
        • 18842

        #4
        Originally posted by Emily_Haines
        He is basically the ultimate model guy. He is every bit as talented when it comes to statistics as any of the well know touts like Dr. Bob. If he is the god when it comes to models why does he have to sell access to his stats for $20 per year?

        He does put out predicted scores on every game but I have never bothered to track and see if these picks win or not. I just assume they don't since I have not seen a thread where anybody has tracked and recorded them long term. Also if they did win I would think he could get more than $20/year. Well at least he has price he service correctly unlike the touts who all think they should get $1000+ per year.

        of course the guy won a shit ton back in the day. Of course, oddsmakers began to catch up with him BEFORE he released his plays which lead to him saying **** it and selling his models
        Comment
        • evo34
          SBR MVP
          • 11-09-08
          • 1032

          #5
          Originally posted by TPowell
          of course the guy won a shit ton back in the day. Of course, oddsmakers began to catch up with him BEFORE he released his plays which lead to him saying **** it and selling his models
          Pomeroy certainly didn't win a "shit ton".. The guy wasn't even a gambler, as can be painfully seen by his post on why it is impossible to win at sports gambling.
          Comment
          • Emily_Haines
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-14-09
            • 15917

            #6
            Originally posted by evo34
            Pomeroy certainly didn't win a "shit ton".. The guy wasn't even a gambler, as can be painfully seen by his post on why it is impossible to win at sports gambling.
            I believe his post about not winning at gambling was in regards to the NFL and I agree with him.
            Comment
            • skrtelfan
              SBR MVP
              • 10-09-08
              • 1913

              #7
              Pomeroy's error in the no one wins at gambling article was assuming the people that enter the Hilton actually know what they're doing.
              Comment
              • gmcarroll33
                SBR High Roller
                • 03-18-09
                • 122

                #8
                Originally posted by Emily_Haines
                He is basically the ultimate model guy. He is every bit as talented when it comes to statistics as any of the well know touts like Dr. Bob. If he is the god when it comes to models why does he have to sell access to his stats for $20 per year?

                He does put out predicted scores on every game but I have never bothered to track and see if these picks win or not. I just assume they don't since I have not seen a thread where anybody has tracked and recorded them long term. Also if they did win I would think he could get more than $20/year. Well at least he has price he service correctly unlike the touts who all think they should get $1000+ per year.
                You will get crushed blindly betting kenpom's predictions.

                As for the $20 charge, well I'm sure he knows that 99% of the people viewing his website are only doing it for gambling related reasons. So basically I guess he concluded "why should I keep doing all this work for free, so that a bunch of gamblers can profit as a result of all my work?"

                Once it became a pay site last year I asked him if he could add wingspan data for us. Didn't succeed with that. Oh well. $20 is dirt cheap for putting all that data out for free. It's a much better presented version of the information contained in statsheet to me
                Last edited by gmcarroll33; 11-04-12, 08:43 AM.
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  Originally posted by evo34
                  Pomeroy certainly didn't win a "shit ton".. The guy wasn't even a gambler, as can be painfully seen by his post on why it is impossible to win at sports gambling.
                  Actually Ken bet CBB rather heavily and still does. The blog you are referring too was regarding the NFL.
                  Comment
                  • Emily_Haines
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-14-09
                    • 15917

                    #10
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    Actually Ken bet CBB rather heavily and still does. The blog you are referring too was regarding the NFL.
                    If betting was such a gold mine for him he wouldn't have been putting up this stats year after year for free.
                    Comment
                    • LT Profits
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-27-06
                      • 90963

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Emily_Haines
                      If betting was such a gold mine for him he wouldn't have been putting up this stats year after year for free.
                      He obviously knows what he is doing and $20 is a steal for that info.
                      Comment
                      • Emily_Haines
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-14-09
                        • 15917

                        #12
                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                        He obviously knows what he is doing and $20 is a steal for that info.
                        I thought for sure he would raise the price this year. But he left it the same
                        Comment
                        • tto827
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-01-12
                          • 9078

                          #13
                          If he is as good of a stats guy as you all say he is, I'm quite sure there are one of two reasons for the low price, either he does not care much about profit, and wants to help people (but still needs to collect some $) or he created a formula, saw that $20 maximizes his revenue.
                          Comment
                          • evo34
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-09-08
                            • 1032

                            #14
                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                            Actually Ken bet CBB rather heavily and still does. The blog you are referring too was regarding the NFL.
                            Is there any evidence of this? The majority of his posts are written by someone who sounds like he has never seriously gambled.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by evo34
                              Is there any evidence of this? The majority of his posts are written by someone who sounds like he has never seriously gambled.
                              Do you read his blogs? He mentions games he bet, at what book (usually offshore) and at what lines.
                              Comment
                              • evo34
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-09-08
                                • 1032

                                #16
                                I've read/skimmed the majority of his blog posts, and cannot recall any reporting what games he has bet.
                                Comment
                                • stevenash
                                  Moderator
                                  • 01-17-11
                                  • 65450

                                  #17
                                  Jeff Sagarin doesn't charge his fee, his numbers are just as good, if not better.
                                  Dunkel too, no fee there either.

                                  KenPom so over hyped and overrated
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by stevenash
                                    Jeff Sagarin doesn't charge his fee, his numbers are just as good, if not better.
                                    Dunkel too, no fee there either.

                                    KenPom so over hyped and overrated
                                    None of those have the stats that KenPom does, his matchup pages are priceless. Sagarin I don't think has any stats at all? He is strictly power ratings and nothing else. Good power rating mind you, but worthless when looking for matchups, especially pace ratings.
                                    Comment
                                    • Emily_Haines
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 04-14-09
                                      • 15917

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by stevenash
                                      Jeff Sagarin doesn't charge his fee, his numbers are just as good, if not better.
                                      Dunkel too, no fee there either.

                                      KenPom so over hyped and overrated
                                      You do realize they let you bet totals.

                                      How does Dunkel or Sagarin help you with these?
                                      Comment
                                      • big0mar
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-09-09
                                        • 3374

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Emily_Haines
                                        If betting was such a gold mine for him he wouldn't have been putting up this stats year after year for free.
                                        Why not? It very likely could be a more sustainable and consistent profit-model for him. Dealing with sportsbooks and betting markets is a fukkin pain.
                                        [B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.

                                        [/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]
                                        Comment
                                        • CHUBNUT
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 06-30-09
                                          • 321

                                          #21
                                          For an insignificant sum of money Pomeroys figures are valuable in that they show you what the opening line should be without any other input. Any movement from that should be scrutinised deeply before a having a bet.
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by CHUBNUT
                                            For an insignificant sum of money Pomeroys figures are valuable in that they show you what the opening line should be without any other input. Any movement from that should be scrutinised deeply before a having a bet.
                                            Exactly! I think people asking if Pomeroy "wins" are missing the whole point of his site. Just using the great information on the site to cap games yourself should make you a better handicapper.
                                            Comment
                                            • CHUBNUT
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 06-30-09
                                              • 321

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by uva3021
                                              linesmakers use pomeroy now, maybe 4-5 years ago
                                              Yes, whats your alternative.
                                              Comment
                                              • skrtelfan
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-09-08
                                                • 1913

                                                #24
                                                anything worthwhile and public gets reflected in the line
                                                Comment
                                                • Professor1215
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 11-28-11
                                                  • 216

                                                  #25
                                                  I have been following Pomeroy via fanmatch every single day this season.

                                                  Pomeroy's winning percentage is in 70th percentile straight up YTD. He picks winners and proves it. I do not know what his record ATS is and I am not positive 70-80% WP on the ML is enough to profit. Additionally, the majority of the time his "line" seems to be within .5-2 points of pinnacle 80% of the time. Over the past week or so his winning percentage is in the 80th percentile.

                                                  Can you profit from this? Of course you can, but there is much more then just his picks. But I totally agree with the guy who stated you will get "crushed" if you bet Pomeroy blindly. His predictions have been posted for the remainder of the year. This tells us that injuries and suspensions are not a factor in his predictions and probably other things I am not thinking of.

                                                  I have seen some success when Pomeroy has a team winning by 6 points and Pinnacle has them at, say -3.5. Small sample size so there is no validity here, just something I notice.

                                                  And for what it's worth, I am up a few units using Pomeroy's data and I am nothing more than an amateur trying to get better one day at a time.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • evo34
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-09-08
                                                    • 1032

                                                    #26
                                                    Most power ratings are having an unusally good year ATS thus far:

                                                    Football ratings, NFL, NCAA Football, Basketball, Baseball, Computer ratings, predictions, sports


                                                    You are not going to win long-term by betting Pomeroy differentials.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • frongi
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 02-05-13
                                                      • 114

                                                      #27
                                                      if you can't make money betting based on kenpom's predicted outcomes, and he's the best there is at modeling outcomes of games, how can any model be profitable? I don't have an account there so maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me like the $20 gets you his predicted game results (based on his models).
                                                      Comment
                                                      • tto827
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 10-01-12
                                                        • 9078

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by frongi
                                                        if you can't make money betting based on kenpom's predicted outcomes, and he's the best there is at modeling outcomes of games, how can any model be profitable? I don't have an account there so maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me like the $20 gets you his predicted game results (based on his models).
                                                        You do get his predicted outcomes. Which do not account for injuries, along with who knows what else. I beg to differ that he is the best, but he is the best that makes it readily available to the public.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JR007
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-21-10
                                                          • 5279

                                                          #29
                                                          It's good for understanding "pace ratings"
                                                          Comment
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