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Looks like Mad Max is signing with the Mets. Huge get for the Mets who lost Syndergaard earlier this month to the Angels in free agency.Leave a comment:
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TODAY: The two sides have reached an agreement on a five-year, $56MM extension, according to Craig Mish (via Twitter). The contract will become official when Alcantara passes a physical. Mish and Jordan McPherson note that the Marlins also have a $21MM club option for a sixth year, with a $2MM buyout. Alcantara receives a $1.5MM signing bonus as part of the deal.
NOVEMBER 22: The Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara are closing in on a five-year contract extension that would guarantee the CAA Sports client more than $55MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link).
Alcantara, 26, has been in extension talks for months — dating back to July when reports of negotiations first surfaced. While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM).
Acquired from the Cardinals alongside Zac Gallen in the 2017 trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, Alcantara has steadily improved over the course of his four seasons in Miami. He’s always been a hard-throwing sinker specialist, but his strikeout and walk rates early in his career were pedestrian, to say the least. Alcantara racked up 197 innings with the Fish in 2019, but he looked more like a potential innings-eater than a star at that point. Fast forward to 2021, however, and Alcantara looks more like a building block than that stable No. 4 starter he was in ’19.
This past season, Alcantara finished fourth in MLB with 205 2/3 innings thrown, averaged 98.1 mph on his heater and posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.0%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%). All three are vastly better than the league average, so it’s little surprise that Alcantara’s 3.19 ERA was largely supported by fielding-independent marks. This year’s 13.3% swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high, and Alcantara’s gaudy 36.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked third among qualified starters. Alcantara also thrives when it comes to inducing weak contact and ranks above the league average in Statcast’s “expected” ERA, batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.
Alcantara had been set for his first trip through the arbitration process this winter and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM. He’d have been arb-eligible twice more, securing a pair of additional raises in the process. The proposed deal would buy out two arbitration seasons and, depending on how bullishly one cares to project Alcantara’s would-be raises in years two and three of arbitration, places a value of around $14-15MM per season on those two free-agent campaigns. That, of course, still represents a bargain for Alcantara if he can replicate his 2021 breakout, but that type of tradeoff is commonplace for players signing extensions well before they’d otherwise reach the open market.
The $11MM annual value — a figure which, as with many extensions, is skewed by the arbitration seasons included in the deal — is significant for a typically low-payroll Marlins club. However, Miami doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books after the 2023 season, and second-year GM Kim Ng has been vocal in her desire to spend more money this offseason. Much of that is expected to come via free agency, but locking up one of their current stars to keep him in the fold beyond his previously allotted team control certainly speaks to that increased financial wherewithal as well.
Miami has reportedly considered trading from its impressive collection of young starting pitchers as the organization eyes long-term options both in the outfield and behind the plate. That said, Alcantara would always have been one of the toughest Marlins starters to obtain — if not the toughest — and a five-year extension would further diminish the already slim chances of him being dealt. The Fish could still dangle any combination of Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, while near-MLB prospects like Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera (among many others) would surely carry very strong trade value. Injured youngsters like Sixto Sanchez (shoulder capsule surgery) and Jake Eder (Tommy John surgery) are appealing in their own right — health concerns notwithstanding.
With such a bounty of young arms, the Marlins obviously could have weathered the hit of trading Alcantara, but today’s extension instead likely portends a long-term rotation headed by Alcantara and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers. Who’ll fill the spots behind that dynamic pairing is dependent on how the offseason trade market unfolds, but the Fish are well-positioned to continue making strides thanks largely to that near-unparalleled collection of pitching talent.Leave a comment:
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Yeah.
Good starters that can eat up six innings these days are a dying breed.
There were only 38 of them last year, of which maybe 30 were any good.
That number is startling when you consider there are 30 teams, which accounts for like 340 pitchers total.
10 percent of all pitchers start and average six inning per start a season.
Here's the list.
Name Team W L ERA GS IP H HR BB SO Corbin Burnes MIL 11 5 2.43 28 167 123 7 34 234 Max Scherzer - - - 15 4 2.46 30 179.1 119 23 36 236 Walker Buehler LAD 16 4 2.47 33 207.2 149 19 52 212 Brandon Woodruff MIL 9 10 2.56 30 179.1 130 18 43 211 Zack Wheeler PHI 14 10 2.78 32 213.1 169 16 46 247 Kevin Gausman SFG 14 6 2.81 33 192 150 20 50 227 Robbie Ray TOR 13 7 2.84 32 193.1 150 33 52 248 Julio Urias LAD 20 3 2.96 32 185.2 151 19 38 195 Marcus Stroman NYM 10 13 3.02 33 179 161 17 44 158 Max Fried ATL 14 7 3.04 28 165.2 139 15 41 158 Adam Wainwright STL 17 7 3.05 32 206.1 168 21 50 174 Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 13 5 3.16 28 162.1 122 13 76 185 Anthony DeSclafani SFG 13 7 3.17 31 167.2 141 19 42 152 Sandy Alcantara MIA 9 15 3.19 33 205.2 171 21 50 201 Gerrit Cole NYY 16 8 3.23 30 181.1 151 24 41 243 Joe Musgrove SDP 11 9 3.27 31 176.1 142 22 54 200 Charlie Morton ATL 14 6 3.34 33 185.2 136 16 58 216 Wade Miley CIN 12 7 3.37 28 163 166 17 50 125 Frankie Montas OAK 13 9 3.37 32 187 164 20 57 207 Kyle Gibson - - - 10 8 3.5 30 177.2 151 16 61 152 Jose Berrios - - - 12 9 3.52 32 192 159 22 45 204 Lucas Giolito CHW 11 9 3.53 31 178.2 145 27 52 201 Chris Flexen SEA 14 6 3.61 31 179.2 185 19 40 125 Tyler Mahle CIN 13 6 3.75 33 180 158 24 64 210 Nathan Eovaldi BOS 11 9 3.75 32 182.1 182 15 35 195 Dylan Cease CHW 13 7 3.91 32 165.2 139 20 68 226 Sean Manaea OAK 11 10 3.91 32 179.1 179 25 41 194 Luis Castillo CIN 8 16 3.98 33 187.2 181 19 75 192 Zack Greinke HOU 11 6 4.11 29 168.2 162 29 36 117 Yu Darvish SDP 8 11 4.22 30 166.1 138 28 44 199 Cole Irvin OAK 10 15 4.24 32 178.1 195 23 42 125 Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR 14 10 4.37 31 169 170 24 37 143 German Marquez COL 12 11 4.4 32 180 165 21 64 176 Tyler Anderson - - - 7 11 4.53 31 167 170 27 38 134 Aaron Nola PHI 9 9 4.63 32 180.2 165 26 39 223 Kyle Hendricks CHC 14 7 4.77 32 181 200 31 44 131 Jordan Lyles TEX 9 13 5.39 30 167 186 38 53 140 Patrick Corbin WSN 9 16 5.82 31 171.2 192 37 60 143 Leave a comment:
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Jays landed Kevin Gausman which I think is a huge signing for them. I really like Gausman even though towards the end of last season I think he wore down a little. He was still very good for the Giants and I think the Jays got themselves a good one.Leave a comment:
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Marcus Semien to the Rangers for 7 years and $175M. I wish him well as a Jays fan, glad he got paid.Leave a comment:
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Marlins are interested in Castellanos.
If I were Nick and he thinks Miami can win soon, I'd sign.
They need some heavy thunder in that lineup.
I don't think Miami is close to contending yet, but they have good kids.Leave a comment:
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Seventy games into his Major League career, Rays shortstop Wander Franco has agreed to an 11-year, $182MM contract extension. The contract also comes with a $25MM club option for the 2033 season (with a $2MM buyout) and a series of $3MM escalators based on MVP voting, so the deal’s maximum value sits at $223MM over 12 years. Franco is represented by agent Manny Paula.
Franco’s contract is both a franchise record for the Rays, topping Evan Longoria’s previous $100MM guarantee, and also a record for any player with less than one year of Major League service time. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s eight-year, $100MM contract had been the largest ever signed by a player with less than a year of service, but Franco will nearly double that sum with today’s precedent-shattering agreement.
In terms of financial breakdown, Franco will receive a $5MM bonus right off the bat. The shortstop will earn $1MM in 2022, $2MM in both 2023 and 2024, $8MM in 2025, $15MM in 2016, $22MM in 2027, and then $25MM in each of the 2028-32 seasons.
Franco would receive an extra $3MM in the event of a trade, but there isn’t any no-trade protection involved in the extension. There also aren’t any provisions related to the Rays’ plan to split time between Tampa and Montreal once the team’s lease at Tropicana Field is up after the 2027 season.
Franco, who won’t turn 21 until March, ranked as the sport’s No. 1 overall prospect in each of the past three offseasons and largely justified that hype when he debuted just months after his 20th birthday. The switch-hitter slashed .288/.347/.463 with seven home runs, 18 doubles, five triples and a pair of stolen bases through 308 plate appearances.
From July 25 to Sept. 29, Franco embarked on one of the more remarkable stretches in recent memory, reaching base in a staggering 43 consecutive games in spite of his youth. During that time, he posted a combined .329/.398/.545 batting line with more walks (9.1%) than strikeouts (8.1%). Franco only appeared in 70 games this season but was impressive enough to finish third in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Defensively, Franco received split marks for his work at shortstop, putting up six Defensive Runs Saved, average marks per Ultimate Zone Rating and a minus-3 mark in Statcast’s Outs Above Average. However, scouting reports on him have pegged him as at least an average shortstop — if not better — in addition to touting his elite hit tool, plus power and plus speed. That generally aligns with the .331/.399./535 slash he posted in his meteoric rise through 215 minor league games. Prior to Franco’s promotion, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’d been “the best player his age on the planet since he was 14 years old” and touted him as a perennial MVP candidate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, meanwhile, called him “plus at basically everything on a baseball field.” Take your pick of Franco scouting reports from the 2020-21 offseason and they’ll all generally be filled similar superlatives.
Because the Rays waited until late June to promote Franco, he was a veritable lock to fall shy of Super Two status under the current arbitration system (which could potentially change, depending on how collective bargaining talks play out). Franco wouldn’t have been arbitration-eligible until after the 2024 season and would’ve had to wait until the 2027-28 offseason to reach free agency. The 11-year length of the contract buys out all three of Franco’s pre-arbitration seasons — during which he’d likely have made under $1MM apiece — and all three arbitration years. He’s also surrendering control of six would-be free-agent seasons (though only five are fully guaranteed).
Some fans will recoil at the notion of guaranteeing $182MM to a player with just 70 big league games under his belt, but those 70 games largely confirmed what the industry has expected from Franco since he signed for a bonus of nearly $4MM as a 16-year-old: he looks the part of a budding superstar. And, a westward look toward San Diego shows what could happen by waiting to allow the player to further establish himself. Fernando Tatis Jr. didn’t sign an extension until he had accrued two years of Major League service, and his price tag ballooned to 14 years and $340MM. Franco’s price tag upon waiting would likely have extended even beyond that point and may well have become too sizable for the Rays’ typically frugal ownership.
It’s tempting to ponder just how much Franco might be “leaving on the table,” so to speak; free agent Carlos Correa has already pocketed $27MM in career salaries and is reportedly seeking a contract worth more than $300MM at the same age Franco would’ve been upon reaching free agency. Extension rumblings surrounding Juan Soto have elicited speculation of $400MM or even $500MM in total guaranteed money; Soto is 23 and has three-plus years of MLB service.
Franco would have found himself on a similar trajectory had he gone the year-to-year route, and one could certainly argue that betting on himself in hopes of setting an even more dramatic record was the more prudent path forward. That said, it’s difficult to fault anyone for accepting this type of guarantee — particularly at such a young age. Generations of Franco’s family will be financially secure because of it, and he can still take heart in knowing that he’s nearly doubled the previous precedent, thus further advancing the market for future players. Beyond that, because of his youth, Franco can still reach free agency as a 32-year-old, which is young enough to command a second substantial contract.
The possibility of “leaving money on the table” also assumes good health and continued production from Franco moving forward. Taking the extension now mitigates much of the risk associated with a career-altering injury or injuries — a danger that exists for any player. It also safeguards against Franco “merely” becoming a solid regular rather than a bona fide superstar (or, less likely, declining into a sub-par player). Promising as his beginnings were, he’d hardly be the first player to impress as a rookie before taking a few years to reach his ceiling or even stalling out entirely.
Ongoing labor talks also have to be considered. While the next collective bargaining agreement could have improved Franco’s earning power, it’s also feasible that a new CBA might have hurt him to an extent; ownership has already proposed an age-based free-agent threshold of 29.5 years, for instance, and although that particular number was a nonstarter for the players association (due to just this type of situation), the league could explore various permutations of such mechanisms. Regardless of how labor talks between MLB and the MLBPA play out, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander and Franco can both rest easy knowing that perhaps the most critical negotiation either will ever personally take part in has been resolved.
Any and all instances of the Rays spending money bring about the typical comments wondering how long until the player on the receiving end of the deal is traded. Such barbs are admittedly somewhat justified due to the Rays’ history of trading players — e.g. Longoria, Blake Snell, Chris Archer — in the latter stages of their extensions. But, even if that’s Franco’s ultimate fate, it’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Extensions of this nature tend to mirror what the player would have earned absent the long-term contract; in other words, Franco may receive an up-front signing bonus, but his yearly salaries through the first six years figure are considerably lighter than they will be in the portion of his contract covering what would have been free-agent years.
In the short term, then, the Franco extension will have only minimal impact on club payroll. Tampa Bay was projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of around $76MM in 2021, and the Franco contract probably won’t push that mark up to even $80MM. That number still figures to drop a bit in the near future as the Rays contemplate potential trades and non-tenders related to an abnormally large arbitration class, but any trades or non-tenders of arb-eligible players in the coming days will be unrelated to Franco’s long-term pact.
At the end of the day, any contract of this magnitude involves some give and take for both sides. Any number of things could’ve gone wrong for Franco in the years to come, and the looming possibility of those pitfalls underscores the fact that the typically small-payroll Rays are taking on what is, by their standards, an unprecedented risk.
While many will be quick to declare “winners” and “losers” in Hot Stove transactions — be they trades, free-agent signings or contract extensions — there are also instances where a deal simply appears sensible for all sides. Franco receives a generational amount of money and retains the ability to reach free agency in his early 30s. The Rays secure control of a franchise cornerstone whom they hope and believe can be an all-time great. The players union surely approves of the precedent for players with under a year of service being moved forward so substantially.
Ultimately, Franco’s new contract contains positives for all parties involved — perhaps with the exception of Tampa Bay’s division rivals in the AL East who now have to wonder how to combat the emerging superstar into the 2030s.Leave a comment:
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The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners have agreed to three-player trade. The Padres will send second baseman Adam Frazier to Seattle for left-handed reliever Ray Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).
Frazier certainly fits the mold of the type of offensive contributor that GM Jerry Dipoto tends to covet. The 29-year-old is a contact-first, well-rounded player who can player second base on a regular basis or move to the outfield. Though his defensive versatility is a plus, his bat plays best is he’s manning the keystone. Right now, that’s where he is most likely to get the bulk of his playing time. He will share the middle infield with J.P. Crawford, while Abraham Toro and Ty France will fill out the infield and Dylan Moore moves into a super utility role.Leave a comment:
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Jones's fastball hit the 90's.
Thing was at the time he had the best curveball in the game at the time.
And in the 80's 10K's per 9IP was rare, and Jones's 8.5 K's per nine was solid.
When I was a kid the best curveball thrower I ever saw was Andy Messersmith.
Mike Mussina's knuckle and overhand curveball were devastating too.Leave a comment:
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Mets sign Eduardo Escobar. I don't know if he will make a differenceLeave a comment:
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Jones hit 94 on thee slow gun.
That was good enough in the late 80's.
He did have the best off speed pitch in the game at the time.
When I was a teenage Messersmith had the best curveball I ever saw, and the only other curveball artist that rivaled Andy was Mussina's devastating knuckle curve.Last edited by stevenash; 11-26-21, 08:45 PM.Leave a comment:
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Sorry Nasher, velocity is here to stay. That circle change is way more filthy when you can throw high 90s heat to go with it.Leave a comment:
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Read a very nice piece on the late, great Doug Jones.
Once he changed to that circle change up pitch of his he was untouchable.
One of the slowest pitch velocity wise in the history of all modern day closers.
Dude as all class, and wish more clubs would get away from all this "have to throw 100 mph and have to hit 500 foot home runs"Leave a comment:
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Rich Hill has already emphatically stated that he’ll be back for 2022, a season in which he’ll be 42 years old. But would the Red Sox be interested in a reunion with the Massachusetts native? “There is an interest, without a doubt,” Hill told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “There’s a need on the other end. [But] the need for starting pitching is very apparent throughout the league — not just in Boston. It’s also many other clubs that need it.”
The lefty is certainly correct about the demand throughout the league, as starting pitchers have been flying off the shelves so far this offseason. In just over three weeks since free agency began, Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani and Andrew Heaney have all been inked already, with Alex Wood reportedly close to signing as well. Despite his age, Hill figures to garner lots of interest as well, given his solid 2021 campaign. His tally of 158 2/3 innings was the second-highest of his career, trailing only the 195 innings he logged as a 27-year-old in 2007. Between the Rays and Mets last year, he put up an ERA of 3.86 with a strikeout rate of 22.7% and walk rate of 8.3%, producing 1.7 fWAR in the process.
The Red Sox have already lost Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers, leaving them with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck, with Connor Seabold, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock among the options for the back end. There’d certainly be room to add Hill into the mix, though whether they prefer Hill to some other options on the market remains to be seen.
More tidbits from around the league…
- After an excellent 258-game stretch with the Twins over three different seasons, Nelson Cruz was traded to the Rays before last year’s deadline. Although the club isn’t completely ruling out a reunion, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be the top of their to-do list this winter. Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke to GM Thad Levine about the situation. “In a most ideal case, when you’re building a roster you would like to have a DH spot as an open position to rotate guys through and give them a partial day of rest,” he said. “We have chosen to go a different route in each of the last couple seasons because we felt we had an elite DH.” As noted by Hayes, the club is going to be primarily focused on pitching for now, which makes sense given that they’ve lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery. Cruz also struggled after being traded to the Rays, hitting .226/.283/.442, for a wRC+ of 96, raising questions about how productive he will be as a 41-year-old in 2022. But Levine still left the door open a crack, saying they “want to keep the DH spot open to allow for a bunch of players to rotate through that position, unless something exceptional comes our way, at which point we’d have to review it.”
- Bud Black is heading into his sixth season as the skipper of the Rockies, which is also the final year of his current contract. In a recent mailbag, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post says he heard that extension talks were ongoing, but that he “checked that out with general manager Bill Schmidt, who told me that wasn’t true. Schmidt added, however, that talks with Black are certainly possible in the coming months.” Schmidt was the VP of scouting with the Rockies from 2007 until May of 2021. At that point, he was named interim GM, in the wake of the resignation of Jeff Bridich, before officially getting the job last month. As he enters his first offseason in the GM chair, it’s unclear whether he considers Black to be part of the future he envisions for the franchise. Black, 64, has a record of 349-359 in his time with the Rockies and an overall record of 998-1072 when combined with his nine seasons with the Padres.
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Yeah its crazy to think they've never gotten to a World Series especially since they had a generational talent in Junior but the M's just haven't been able to break through. That 2001 M's team was one of the best teams of all time in the regular season but they ran into the Yankees in the postseason which ended their amazing 116 win season.Leave a comment:
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