2018 baseball rotisserie

[darrell74]

I started a thread in Players Talk on Friday asking for specific Homerun calls.

Want to wager on the Player Prop for the hitters who appear to have the best situation for a long-ball

I'll give it a shot.
Thanks for responding to my thread.
Been busy lately, haven't had a whole lotta time to crunch numbers, watch baseball. Work has been surprisingly busier than ever.

[hotcross]

I wonder if anybody regularly reads this thread, or if we are mostly just talking to ourselves here

[darrell74]

Today, Marco Gonzalez for the Seattle Mariners is a goos spot start
2 consecutive shutouts
He duals against Doug Fister of Texas who has allowed a 300+ batting average lifetime, to Mariners hitting.

[darrell74]

Today, Marco Gonzalez for the Seattle Mariners is a good spot start
2 consecutive shutouts
He duals against Doug Fister of Texas who has allowed a 300+ batting average lifetime, to Mariners hitting.

[darrell74]

I wonder if anybody regularly reads this thread, or if we are mostly just talking to ourselves here

Over 1000 views.
People just check in to see if their is a player we know something about.

When I have the free time, I spend the extra time, digging up stats that others may not be able to have the time for

[darrell74]

Gorkys Hernandez 10% owned and he's hot lately.
Good numbers versus Kyle Freeland

[hotcross]

I noticed you refer to BvP numbers often (Batter head-to-head Vs. Pitcher)

I have used that same stat for a few years now, with mixed resuts

Some people argue that the "sample size" is never large enough to be accurate / meaningful

For me, it either seems to work very well, or not at all

I think it's a key to somehow selectively choose a couple matchups out of the bunch, maybe coupling other key stats with the BvP

You seem to have a good success rate with it so far, on the players you have called out. I wonder if I'm missing a certain aspect on how to pick out the best spots....or maybe it's more of a hot streak you've been on using it ???

[darrell74]

Good point.
I do that, but I add my own analysis on top of it.
I eliminate certain things. For example, Felix Hernandez has great numbers against the Texas Rangers, but clearly he's not the same dominant pitcher he use to be.

I also like using current player ratings faor the past 7 or 15 days.
Ownership has to be low.
Right now, Mike Trout has the highest player ratings, but he's drafted first overall, so he's never available for a stream.

Right vs lefty, left vs rightly, is another.
Very fundamental to baseball, yet I notice it gets overlooked.
Pay attention to details is the moral to that philosophy .

Last thing I do is watch a hitter swing. I look for things.

Pitchers: I'm a big fan of the WHIP. My favorite stat.
Matchup, ballparks, and other trends.
Take a look at the odds.

[darrell74]

Joe Musgrove for the Pittsburgh Pirates going against the Chicago Cubs
It will be a second start this season
Last week he shut out the Cardinals in 7 innings

[hotcross]

thanks for the Musgrove info. I took Pirates tonight and they held on for 2-1 win.

He stranded a lot of base runners. So he let 'em get on, but shut 'em down from there. Nerve-racking though.

[darrell74]

thanks for the Musgrove info. I took Pirates tonight and they held on for 2-1 win.

He stranded a lot of base runners. So he let 'em get on, but shut 'em down from there. Nerve-racking though.

Thanks.
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good
A little lucky with that, I thought it was kind of a long shot because the Cubs are supposed to be better at hitting than what they were
But hey! a win is a win, right?

[darrell74]

Tomorrow I say go with Andrew Heaney of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
He should get you at least five strikeouts but most importantly an easy W.

The Detroit Tigers kind of fascinate me because this is supposed to be a rebuild year.
but if you look at their record it looks like they could possibly competefor that weak division
Cleveland Indians aren't exactly running away with it

However the Detroit Tigers keep getting these injuries that they cannot possibly recover from
Francisco Liriano who is supposed to start Thursday is now going on the 10 day DL
The tigers called up an emergency relief pitcher from the minors that really stinks

Anaheim should blow them out

Another possible spot start would be Daniel Mengden but he is 48% so he's probably not going to be there in your league
He's pitched back-to-back shutouts for the Oakland Athletics
However local that works just got shut out tonight and almost no hit, I might not trust their bats

[darrell74]

Other probabilities:
Jose Pirela of the San Diego Padres outfielder second baseman is 18% owned
He has batted 333 for the last week, but pretty pedestrian stats
But he's batted 600 lifetime against Miami starting pitcher Wei Yen Chen

This might be a first time I say this
Drop Trevor Williams immediately starting pitcher for Pittsburgh
I really liked him at the beginning of the year and he still 50% owned, and he's been getting rocked lately
Even though Matt Carpenter is 73% owned, if you own him, don't be surprised to see Matt Carpenter get a moonshot off Trevor Williams tomorrow night

I'm not a big Andrew cashner fan but this isn't the time to fade him
Cashner has really good numbers against New York Yankees hitting
If you got some extra cash that you like throwing on an underdog, I wouldn't blame you for tried to bet on Baltimore upsetting New York
In my opinion, Sonny Gray is one of the most overrated starting pitchers in Major League Baseball

[darrell74]

Ouch, Heaney got rocked

[darrell74]

Mike Leake would be an okay spot start tomorrow against Tampa Bay's terrible offense but he will not get you a lot of strikeouts, 11% owned

Clay Buchholz for Arizona has the same situation as Mike Leake. Miami like Tampa Bay has a weak offense.
He won't get you too many strikeouts but he might not get you a win because Arizona's offense has not been very good either

[JaimeMiro]

so do you bet against southpaw, Jaime Garcia and the Blue Jays tonight by backing the dodgers at -105. Dodgers always seem to lose their heads unless they're huge dogs - won their last two.

[darrell74]

so do you bet against southpaw, Jaime Garcia and the Blue Jays tonight by backing the dodgers at -105. Dodgers always seem to lose their heads unless they're huge dogs - won their last two.

You mean the Tigers?
In reference to the Tigers I would probably bet on the Tigers because the Blue Jays have lost three in a row and they're still on the road
Blaine Hardy hasn't pitched that bad lately even though it has been against terrible hitting
Jaime Garcia has been okay for Toronto lately

Now if you're really talking about the Dodgers we still don't know for sure who the Dodgers are starting
Some guy named Dennis Santana is rumored to be the starter but we still don't even know
The only thing I know is you don't start Colorado's Tyler Anderson or whatever his name is
Shortstop Enrique Hernandez has a lifetime very good slugging percentage against Colorado starting pitcher

[hotcross]

darrell made some good calls for Thursdays games other than the Angels pitcher Heaney ....

but even there you talked about how surprisingly competitive the Tigers are playing, and that part held true. It's quite amazing.

I also agree with Sonny Gray being overrated, if he still even is that.

Same for Jose Quintana. I expect some high scoring opponents against him in upcoming Cubs home games during summertime.

[darrell74]

^
Thanks
I looked over today, and I can't see anything that stands out, except what I already said.

Betting leans:
Boston as an underdog with Chris Sale I might take the plus 1 + half
Tigers money line with them winning two in a row and Toronto losing three in a row
I still won't back down in Andrew Cashner with an extra day of rest getting plus one and a half at the very least or even outright money line at + 170 for the Orioles
Why not take the Dodgers and Rockies to go over the total
Indians and twins under 8 is not the worst idea either
Nick pivetta is a nice price at minus 120 on the road in San Francisco, he's the best pitcher for Philadelphia as we speak

[darrell74]

Proceed with caution with the following spots starts:
Seattle Mariners Marco Gonzalez is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball at 20% owned
He is dueling against Chris Archer who happens to have really good numbers against the Mariners

Jason Hammel for the Kansas City Royals has been bitching very good lately, 2% owned
Royals couldn't score 16 nothing blow out last night so I'm not too confident in their bats to give them run support

[hotcross]

no brainer play for me today is Cleveland first five innings. Trevor Bauer starting against Lance Lynn in Minnesota.

Both teams lineups been heating up lately, so that's the wildcard in this game. But Bauer is usually best early in games, while Lynn isn't good at the start and has to find his rhythm in games.

[darrell74]

Good effort, hang in there
Sometimes Cleveland bats like to take a snooze

[hotcross]

I'm surprised the game total o/u today in Minnesota only 8.5

cool temperature but wind blowing out and pitchers are good, but both tend to walk a fair amount of hitters

[hotcross]

^^^got that Over right, but most of the runs didn't come until later, including a bottom of 9th two-run walkoff HR for the Twins to get a 7-5 win

I don't remember if using weather forecast has been mentioned here already, and it's certainly not the primary factor to use, but gotta take a look how hot it will be and the wind strength / direction

[darrell74]

^^^got that Over right, but most of the runs didn't come until later, including a bottom of 9th two-run walkoff HR for the Twins to get a 7-5 win

I don't remember if using weather forecast has been mentioned here already, and it's certainly not the primary factor to use, but gotta take a look how hot it will be and the wind strength / direction

Good call with the over.

Weather
The reason why I don't go into depth with weather is because what I do a lot of my research I do have the statistics the night before.
Weather can change and change too often. Especially by the time the game starts and I might have done this analysis over 12 hours ago
Realistically I like to take the weather into account when I'm handicapping sides and totals.
For example if the wind is blowing out in Detroit, I think I might like the Yankees and the over.
I like Neil Walker second baseman for the Yankees as a spot start tomorrow, but weather is not going to be a factor. His numbers are good against Mike Fiers. Weather is not an issue here

[darrell74]

Not a whole lot going on in baseball tomorrow
If at all possible to stock up on your tigers and Yankees since they have a double header
Yankees are probably going to be tricky just because your league probably has them all gobbled up
Second baseman Neil Walker is about 4% owned and he has great numbers against Mike Fiers
Austin Romine the catcher he should be able to catch at least one of the games and he's batting over 500 for the last 2 weeks less than 2% owned
Tigers have a few guys you might want to look at such as Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin, Jose Iglesias. Worth of potential spot start


Starting pitchers
Luis Severino is the best pitcher tomorrow but he's 99% owned. you had to draft him if you wanted to start him.
Anaheim Angels Nick Tropeano is it good spot for a stream. He has won two in a row with a sub-3 era and a sub 1 whip.
The Detroit Tigers are calling up Drew verhagen which is a little risky to say the least. Verhagen has a sub to era in a sub one whip in AAA Toledo as he was converted from reliever to starting pitcher. The theory is maybe verhagen catches the Yankees napping and throws a gem as this is an audition for him to get into the Tigers rotation permanently
I looked at Kansas City's Danny Duffy who has happened to have really good numbers for the last 2 weeks. My only problem is Mike Trout and just adopted a very good numbers against them

[darrell74]

^
not too good
Walker goes 0 for 4 in a double-header
Romine gets a 3 run bomb

Severino looks like a Cy Young candidate
Tropeano looks gutless

[darrell74]

For tomorrow:
I like Jason Vargas for the New York Mets
Madison Bumgarner comes off the DL tomorrow

[hotcross]

games mostly look iffy tonight.

Oakland seems to be in a great offensive spot against Matt Moore in Texas, and once again I'll say the hot, humid weather should provide a boost to the hitting environment. Sean Manaea the lefty is starting for Oakland, who has not been good his last several starts, after having the no-hitter early in the season against Boston - that game was played in Oakland and that was the third game in a row which Boston lost, so they were running into a little cold spell, although they turned it around right after that game.

Anyway, I think the Over would be the way to play this game, although the total is offered at 10.5 runs o/u

In another 8pm eastern time game, the Chicago Cubs host the Phillies. Pitching matchup Zach Eflin at Kyle Hendricks and it would appear the left-handed bats of the Cubs are in a good spot, as Eflin has allowed 5 runs in both of his past two starts, which he did not last a full 5-innings in either outing. However the weather in Chicago is cool tonight and the wind blowing in, not to gusty, but Wrigley Field is a ballpark hyper-sensitive to the wind factor. So the play might be under 7.5 runs total which is pretty low....otherwise the Cubs are about -200 favorite.

[hotcross]

^^^both these calls on totals were correct. But I screwed up on the OAK@TEX and played only first five innings Over, which lost.

OAK 4 - 7 TEX final

PHI 6 - 1 CHCubs final

both underdogs won outright

[darrell74]

^
Good call on both

[darrell74]

Clay Buchholz is about 20% owned and you should definitely start him if he's available if your league
He pitches for Arizona and is going to be at San Francisco which is a nice pitchers park

Ian Kinsler is 40% owned who plays second base for the Anaheim Angels
Lifetime he's got two home runs against Ian Kennedy
This past week he's hit three home runs but only batted 236
He could be worth a stream at second base

[darrell74]

Max Muncy for the Dodgers is somebody worth looking at.
Right now he is only 12% owned, but he has several home runs in just a few weeks.
Right now he's first base and third base eligible but he has a possibility of becoming second base and Outfield eligible.

[ApricotSinner32]

Warriors are too ducking good

[hotcross]

You nailed that Ian Kinsler homerun call from Wednesday

Then we got a random Warriors post

So I will add hockey, although season finished it was an unexpected thrilling ride for the Vegas Golden Knights and deserve all the congrats due to them

As a hockey fan, I feel so happy for Ovechkin and all of the Capitals team. Stanley Cup Champions