PLAY NUMBER FOUR:
Iowa +9.5 (+102) for 3 Units
Iowa +9.5 (+102) for 3 Units
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Pags the Iowa line has really shot up there. You think it gets to 10?Comment -
Thanks for the picks pags. I was wondering though, how come we're seeing more favorites picked by you? It seemed like you used to mostly do dogs. Just curious.Comment -
Love the Vandy pick. I am playing them on the ML also.
Hit it hard.
CDComment -
My Boilers will call it quits this week after the embarrassment in South Bend...I think we're a week or 2 away from Elliot at the QB position.
I'd take my chances (and already have) at anything 2 TDs and lower.
Good luck and keep it up Pags.Comment -
tailing you on ok st again and iowa. gl on the rest of ur picks pags
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hell yeah. This is my biggest play, glad to see you're on it too. Purdue has given up an average of 200 yards rushing per game. Notre Dame came into the game with an atrocious run D and got 201 on 40 carries. PSU's O-Line is great and they will rack up 250+ atleast. Their D is solid, I feel the D-line will play better as Koroma and Evans get back in playing shape. Purdue has no linebackers which will spell doom. On the flip side, PSU has a pretty good secondary. The Purdue WR's don't have the physicality and speed of the Illinois group. Finally, CP has struggled. He always throws a pick against a good team. In addendum, Purdue hasn't scored an offensive touchdown against PSU the last two years. IN 2006 PSU won 12-0. Last year, it was 26-19 PSU. Purdue had 4 field goals and a kickoff touchdown. Jordan Norwood should play which will add another weapon. The back up Pat Devlin, can put up points. Purdue won't run on PSU and the PSU secondary has Scirrotto, Wallace, Harriot, Rubin, etc. Their LB's are suspect with the exception of Bowman. However, Painter's lack of running ability will nullify this. PSU 45-PU 24 (late scores)Last edited by thegambler86; 09-29-08, 07:53 PM.Comment -
So you think the play should be Penn St in the 1st half?Comment -
I don't know the line. However, with the exception of the Illinois game, Penn State has jumped on the opponents. They scored 31 in the first half in their first 4 games and 21 against Illinois. I expect at least 3 td's and Purdue should score no more than 10. So If you have -6.5 or -7.5, I would be fairly confident.Comment -
Nice, I'm loving this card so far. Already on Vandy and had Penn St down as a small play. Good luck and lets see some more winners this week."Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
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saddie,
very true...I do hope they keep they keep flying under the radar though...
white_tiger,
I can appreciate your opinion, but remember T. Boone Pickens is sitting watching those games...do you really think the guy doesn't have any action on the games? and do you really think Gundy isn't aware of that?...not to mention OSU has one of the most explosive, balanced offensive attacks in the nation...
thorpe,
the Navy line does appear a tad high, but Air Force has only lost one game at home under Troy Calhoun (to Utah last game which they could have easily one)...Navy is playing well, but QB Kaipo is questionable and Bryant doesn't seem to run the offense quite as well...in no way am I advocating you laying the points with Air Force, but I can't really play Navy at this number either...I think the Cal game is a definite no-play...RB Best hyper-extended his elbow in the second half vs. CSU and will not play this week...also, Tedford is debating starting Longshore so I don't like the uncertainity with the QB situation...that being said, I don't think ASU is a good team at all (although check the status of RB Keegan Herring, he's pretty good and if healthy could help make this a game)...I have a very slight lean to Wisconsin at +3 or more, but my gut is telling me to stay away from the game...I do agree that the Utah line is high, but I can't play Oregon St. either...hope this helps...
always,
I'm going on my 25th year...have been playing online for about ten years now and before I knew Bill Dozer and SBR I played at some pretty shady places, eventually getting some money...now I strictly play with bookmaker and matchbook and have never, ever had a problem withdrawing my money from either book...I highly recommend both books...
black,
no, I'm posting my picks inside this thread...am doing things a little differently now and posting my matchbook plays...it's a little more difficult to follow now, and I try to post the plays as soon as possible but unfortunately my day job gets in the way of my handicapping...thanks for your understading in this matter...
hawaii,
I do have a slight lean to Fresno at -21 or less...Hawaii is having problems right now, but I am just a little concerned about the lack of explosiveness of Fresno's offense combined with their defense having some issues...there is no way I would play Hawaii though, no way...
jcoz,
yes, I am posting my matchbook plays...
tpowell,
I've studied the chart the last day or so and their seems to be some resistance as the line reaches 9.5...I feel this is a good play at +8 or more...you are welcome to wait, but I'm not sure it reaches 10 (I could be wrong of course)...
dan,
thank you, I'm glad you enjoy my plays...good observation on your end...the climate, at least early this season, has changed a bit and I've tried to adapt...it's very difficult to go against the top teams now with all of these teams running the score up for the BCS...it's also tough for me to take bad teams that I hope lose by less than the spread...what I'm trying to focus on playing are what I consider to be "live dogs" and "focused favorites"...what I mean is that if I am going to lay points, it better be on a team where I see a significant advantage...
cane,
while I have respect for Auburn, I do think Vanderbilt will be ready to play this weekend...thanks for your input...
wassymac,
thank you for your input...as you know I respect your opinion highly, especially when it comes to Purdue...I agree with your analysis...
alexda,
good to hear we will be on those games together...
thegambler,
I have yet to bet a road favorite all year until this play, which means I'm extremely confident in it...excellent analysis by the way...thanks for the info. about Norwood, I do hope that he can go this week but still feel it's a strong play...
lout,
I don't make first half or halftime plays, so I can't recommend that...Comment -
toby,
thanks very much bud...you seem like an up and coming handicapper and I respect your opinion...keep up the good work...Comment -
pags what's your opinion on the two Big 12 home dogs Colorado and Nebraska? Also KentuckyComment -
The card as a whole is not very appealing to me. There aren't a lot of games that stand out. There may be a couple totals that would have some interest (I know you don't play totals, I'm just saying), but this isn't a card that gives me warm fuzzies.
That said, I would guess you are about done...BOLComment -
dr. luck,
I have no opinion on either of those games...
gopher,
I'll be releasing three more plays...I already have made plays at bookmaker, but am waiting on the rest of the matchbook offers to be matched...Comment -
Solid picks so far coach.. I can not wait to see your other 3.. BOL this week..Comment -
A&M sucks. I havent bet against him (I cant do that), but ive advised against betting for them. Bet of the century was that Miami game and last week's Army game was a gift as well. They do struggle on defense- but they have had recent success vs Ok State recently. Gundy had a terrible gameplan vs A&M last year at Kyle.
I do have pretty good success betting for/against my favorite teams. I do think they cover this week though if Jerrod Johnson starts. 50/50 if McGee does. The offense does not move with McGee as QB. He can't throw past 10 yards. A guy who cant throw in a prostyle offense (last year he was in an option offense) is a major problem. Jerrod avoids tacklers better, scrambles more effectively, has a better arm, and although he may not be more accurate, he spreads the offense and hence they better chance they cover with him.
This game comes down, to me, to how highly you think of Gundy. If you study the A&M defense, they are very easy to expose. The offense is not tough to stop either if Jovorskie doesnt get consistent carries and they stop the run with Goodson. If you think Gundy can take apart a rather predicatble team - then by all means. If he constructs another weak gameplan like he did last year, then id wait till gametime to find out who the QB is before you place your bet.
My 2 Cents.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 35 - A&M 24
GL though
Last edited by mv09; 09-30-08, 10:23 AM.Comment -
Im all over the Vandy +4. Auburns offense just is no good, and Vandy should put up enough points against Auburns tough D to get it done. I like the Iowa play as well, I just dont know if I've got the guts to pull the trigger. I also like Notre Dame -7.5, Illinois +2.5 (Michigan is still not very good even with last weeks comeback, and illinois can put up some points even in a tough environment as they showed in Beaver Stadium against a much much better Penn St. team). And I like Wisconsin to come back with some revenge after last weeks let up to play 4 solid quarters at home (where they are dominant) against an Ohio St. team that hasnt shown much this year, and showed a lot of weakness at home against Minnesota.Comment -
Hey Pags, Im also curious about your thoughts on the Kentucky +16.5 line. Last week in my thread I said Bama was the play ML and +7. I also said that it would be the last time we saw a good line on Bama. I think that is exactly what happend here with this line being so freaking high. Kentucky is a solid team with a solid defense and they will be jacked up to play this #2 Bama team. I think this game is close with Bama winning, but doesnt this line seem WAY too high?Comment -
Pags
great stuff as always. I'm with you on that Vandy pick. staying in the SEC I'm all over Florida -24 1/2. Hogs have no D.. very little O. Another long day for my team Fla 58 Ark 7Comment -
Pags,
What do you think about Rice/Tulsa game. I had this capped around 8 and it came out at 14, I wanted to jump on it but it seems as if everyone is taking Tulsa and I might be able to get 14.5. What is your opinion on this game as I see no defense at all. Rice is much improved this year and Tulsa gives up a shit load of points. When you have no defense against a team who is out to score as many points as they possibly can (77 against UNT in 3 quarters), it is going to be hard to cover a 14 point line. What do you think?Last edited by tobycsh39; 09-30-08, 01:13 PM."Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
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Hey Pags,
I love Penn State -12 over Purdue! I heard several rumblings from Purdue fans in Indy over the off-season that this was going to be Tiller's worst team and that they won't miss him? They barely beat Central Michigan and the fact that they took Oregon to OT was a fluke too....due more to Oregon self-induced mistakes in the 1st half! Tiller was close to pulling Painter vs CM and he's notorious for running up numbers in scrub games and choking against better teams like Penn State! PSU will run away from them as long as they don't take a half off like Oregon!
Do you like Colorado +14 vs Texas? The Buffs are no monster but they play really well at home and the altitude/grass seems to keep some of these high powered offenses under control. This Texas team isn't as good as Oklahoma 07 imo and the Buffs beat them in the 2nd half! Thanks for your feedback...GL this week!!Comment -
PLAY NUMBER FIVE:
Iowa St. +13 (-101) for 3 unitsComment -
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On Arizona already pags! Also someone called today about betting Kansas and I told them it is not a good bet. Then I got to thinking and was like man, I bet pags bets Iowa st. lol"Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
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odu,
thanks bud...I'm waiting on part of the rest of my offer on my seventh game to be matched and will hopefully be posting it shortly...
mv,
I appreciate your insight on the game, but I respectfully disagree with your analysis...it was announced today that Johnson will start the game, but he is also banged up...
dbldown,
thanks for your thoughts on all of those games...I have no real opinion on the Kentucky game...I like the way their defense has played, but have some concerns about how they will score points vs. Alabama and I just don't like the matchup of Brooks vs. Saban...in no way am I advocating an Alabama play, but I just don't have a feel for that game...
razorbacks,
glad we will be on the Vandy play together...I understand your reasoning on the Florida play but will be sitting that one out...
toby,
check your pm box regarding the Rice vs. Tulsa game...
mr. handicapable,
you make a lot of good points, but laying points on the road can be tricky...I do agree with you though which is why I'm on Penn St...I have no opinion on the Colorado game...Texas is playing well but usually has trouble covering before the Red River Shootout...the two TDs look good at first glance with Colorado, but I have some serious concerns about their lack of team speed playing a team as talented as Texas...
toby,
yeah, I got a much better number on Sunday with Arizona, but am posting the second play I've made on this game since I wasn't able to get an offer matched at matchbook...glad we are on that one together...that's funny that you thought I'd be on Iowa St...Comment -
lout,
tread lightly bro...I'll have more for you in my write-up on Thursday but games like this aren't as easy as they may appear...Comment -
gopherbroke,
great point...KSU too...Comment -
It's been my experience that you should either play a big home favorite or do not play the game at all. More times than not, playing a DD favorite on the road will lose you money. The only DD favorite I have played this year was USC vs. Virginia in their opener. It cashed, but i had it capped out all the way back in May.
Do NOT bet DD road favorites . . . . . . . .Comment -
pags,
i sincerely appreciate you sharing your insight .Thanks for ur plays.What do u think of following plays
California -10 over arizona st
miami fl -3 over florida st
s.carolina +3 over mississippiComment -
Pag's,
Why the wait on AZ? We all know that you could have had it at a much better line, why the wait Bud? By the way, PSU was a 2 unit play for me added another 2 when I seen you on it, got it at -13. I do not have an online account, use local books here in Sparks/Reno.
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