Machine Choice Early Bird Report: Cincinnati at Louisville

[Lazyboy311]

Well, I was thinking Louisville purely out of allegiance (born and raised)...but ** has been on a tear recently and I'm just gonna ride it while its hot!! BOL and thanks for all the great writeups

[manicart]

CINCINNATI

Out
Alex Delisi, LB Knee
Alex Hoffman, OL Knee
Ryan Paxson, LB Knee
Darrin Williams, RB Ankle

Questionable
Aaron Roberson, DB Leg
Adrian Witty, DB Leg

Probable
Wes Richardson, DB Ankle

LOUISVILLE

Out
Victor Anderson, RB Upper Extremity
Tyon Dixon, LB Head
Kamal Hogan, RB Head
Kamran Joyer, OG Lower Extremity

Questionable
Doug Beaumont, WR Lower Extremity
Damian Copeland, WR Lower Extremity
Maurice Evans Lower Extremity
Zed Evans, CB Lower Extremity

Probable
Mario Benevides, C Lower Extremity
Josh Byron, OL Lower Extremity
Blayne Donnell, RB Lower Extremity
Brandon Heath, LB Upper Extremity

Im taken Louisville +3.5 GL everyone.
I like them @ home.

[artie81]

Pead had 169 yards against Oaklahoma rushing and Collaros has a 12 Td/1Int ratio. This will spell disaster for a Louisville team that should be getting 5 points in this matchup. I think the line is a lil swayed from the 56 points they put up last week. Louisville will come back to reality this week.

[Machine Choice]

Josh Bellamy is Louisville's best WR with 17.7 yards a catch

I have not fact-checked your numbers on Bellamy, but here's what I do know. Beaumont was the leading receiver (yardage-wise) in all three of Louisville's first three games (which includes Kentucky and Oreg St). Go look at the box scores if you don't believe me. Since people are putting real money on this game, we need to be precise on the info.

He did not play in the last two games, and the result was that Louisville was lucky to beat Arkansas St and then caught a horrible Memphis team at home. The absence of Beaumont will be felt against a good team like Cincinnati. Beaumont has not been 100% ruled out tonight, but even if he plays, at less than 100% healthy he is more of a liability than a help for Louisville.

[Boddhissatva]

Machinechoice, I really appreciate all the hard work and intel you provide to all of us.

I pulled the trigger on KSU and UCF for the same reasons you provided.

[oklahomaoutlaw]

I have not fact-checked your numbers on Bellamy, but here's what I do know. Beaumont was the leading receiver (yardage-wise) in all three of Louisville's first three games (which includes Kentucky and Oreg St). Go look at the box scores if you don't believe me. Since people are putting real money on this game, we need to be precise on the info. He did not play in the last two games, and the result was that Louisville was lucky to beat Arkansas St and then caught a horrible Memphis team at home. The absence of Beaumont will be felt against a good team like Cincinnati. Beaumont has not been 100% ruled out tonight, but even if he plays, at less than 100% healthy he is more of a liability than a help for Louisville.

You may be right but there are way better plays this weekend, I just think it is crazy for all the favs to cover three days in a row but BOL.


Receiving

Player

Rec

Yds

Avg

TD

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player46259.html

15

265

17.7

4

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player34958.html

16

244

15.3

1

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player37922.html

14

193

13.8

2

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player33459.html

9

168

18.7

1

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player33442.html

6

96

16.0

1

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player41286.html

5

66

13.2

1

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player41279.html

3

61

20.3

0

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player33436.html

10

55

5.5

0

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player37903.html

3

32

10.7

0

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player33446.html

3

12

4.0

0

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player29607.html

1

10

10.0

0

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player41314.html

1

6

6.0

0

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player37934.html

1

5

5.0

0

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/players/player46380.html

1

4

4.0

0

[BathingApe]

Well, the reason Bellamy is the leading receiver NOW is because Beaumont has been hurt the past two games.

But yeah, I can't wait another 4 hours already!!

[balls2wall]

Not just popsicles, motherfuckin' popsicles

killer avatar!!!

[RayzHELL]

Cincy vs. Louisville

I was leaning Louisville until I read your cogent analysis! Instead, now I will just take the under.

[BettingWizard]

Beaumont is playing tonight

[BathingApe]

Well I don't expect him to be 100% so we'll see.

[TPowell]

UNDER guys, best play on board by far IMO. Only way this goes over is turnovers and shitty tackling

[ebbearsfb1]

tpowell what total u got?

[TPowell]

I honestly have trouble seeing 7 touchdowns in this game, maybe I'm biased or just ignorant but Louisville isn't that great offensively. The defense is very aggressive though and I think they cause havoc in the backfield tonight.

[ebbearsfb1]

i should say what line do you have ? but good write up you probably know the ville better than ne of us

[TPowell]

I think around 50 is what I would sit this line at

[ebbearsfb1]

i understand that... but what line do you have? like that your betting on 56,57,58 lol

[TPowell]

ohhh sorry lol, I have 56.5

[Pete0]

Machine Choice, Thank you so much for sharing your insight and all that you do here.

I really appreciate your efforts and hope continued success ! You're the man !

Cheers,
Pete

[masr]

17-14 w/12min to go in the 2nd

[masr]

24-14 Louisville w/ 5:00 min to go in the 2nd

[masr]

24-21 2nd Qtr 3:46 to go in the 2nd...

over is done...

[ukbsktbll]

Any thoughts on 2H play

[pokerwhiz90]

its going to go over - sorry guys i still think machine is right with the bear cats -3, but the under wasn't the right play, the over was

[Lazyboy311]

Any thoughts on 2H play

Id stay off. Tough to see what is coming...take away those two big turnovers by Cincy and this is a much different game.

Both teams are moving it with ease so I'd just sit on whatever action you have and root for that. Unless its the under, and in that case, my apologies lol

[dlightner]

Nice all Boss

[khaden]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[caseyking2]

Great Run Machine $$$$$$$$$$$$$ I cashed on Over 56 as well

[TheThreeKings]

Congrats **. It's always reassuring when I find you on the same side.

[Boddhissatva]

awesome machine!! I hit the over as well!! keep em coming!!

[BathingApe]

I lost 1h but won game and 2h. My god that game was WAYYY closer than I thought it would be.

[rb3b3]

thank you machine!!!!!!!!!! ******* awesome man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! cant wait for tomorrows plays bro!!!

[mymarley]

Nice call again **!! Look forward to what you like on sat.

[udlock4life]

awesome job again

[bacon22]

Great Game. Louisville looks like they can rebound with Strong at the helm and a senior lead team. Cincy looks like they are getting stronger. This team only has 12 seniors and a lot of potential.