I also wanted your comment on what might be the biggest bet of the weekend because I have to be missing something here. Air force opened at -3 and is down to -1 on most boards against San Diego State. Yes the same San Diego State that just got beat by three to a non existent BYU team. BYU the week before got drummed by Utah State. San diego has beat Nichols state, new mexico state and utah state. They are getting ready to go against the number 1 ranked rushing offense in the entire country. I know that the next two games are against TCU and then Utah for Air force but this game is almost at a pick'em right now. I just wanted to see your opinion why this shouldnt be the strongest play of the weekend. This looks way too easy.
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Correct. No way they are getting enough public money on this game this far in advance to have public money moving the line. That looks like a bunch of smart money all agreeing on one side and adjusting the line backing Washington.
Hey good luck with those. That WVU under is a little too low for me to play but I do like it a little bit. I think you see a really great performance by the USF defense. As for Kansas St I am rooting for them (my brother just made a play on them) but I am not going to back them. I think this is going to be a big surprise for people who think Kansas will get steam rolled. No doubt Kansas St is the better team just looks like a good spot for Kansas.
You know what, I want to take that statement back. I want to re-phrase it. I think they are being overvalued this week. I don't think they are all that great of a road team (despite the win @ Arizona last week) to be getting all this money on them. I think it would be quite a feat to win @ Arizona and @ Washington back to back and I just don't see it happening. Oregon St disappointed me when they played Arizona St and I still can't figure out Ryan Katz. Sometimes he looks like Peyton Manning and sometimes he looks like he can't throw it near the receiver. So I think all in all this team will be strong at home, soft on the road, and finish as a 5th ranked Pac 10 team. At this point I think that is right where people are rating them so overrated was the wrong word. I'll go with overvalued right now.Comment -
I should have all my plays out by 9pm tonight. Today I am not moving from this spot until I have gone through each and every play and done all my homework. If I am not backing anyone in that game I'll tell you why. Haven't gotten to that one yet. Been real lazy this week, usually I have this done by Tuesday.Comment -
KSTATE is 2-14 in their last 16 road games.Comment -
I like a lot of your plays and most them I agree on hopefully were both right and make some money.
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Texas +10 (1x)
10 points is a lot to give a team as capable as Texas in a game that should have as much intensity as this one. These teams play tight games historically and even though Nebraska has looked unbeatable last week I still think they have a few problems. Every week I put down Taylor Martinez in some form or fashion and every week he seems to be doing his job. This is the best defense he may play all year, if there is a game that he will kill Nebraska with costly picks I think this has a strong possibility to be the one. Nebraska is averaging a silly 330+ yards per game on the ground. This Texas defense is only giving up 104. Something has to give. I think we see a lot more 3rd and 8's for Nebraska then they have seen all year and if they have to put that ball in the air on those downs I think Texas has the advantage. Sure Texas is in a down year and Nebraska looks like strong National Title contenders but when these two teams meet you can throw all of that out the window. This should be a great game and as strong as Nebraskas defense is I think Texas will still find their fair share of points to keep this one within 10. But Texas does need to find more consistency on offense. They don't really have a feature running back. It's like a revolving door from week to week and play to play. They lost a ton from last year but I think 10 points is a little bit too much to give this team in this spot.Comment -
Navy -1 (1x)
Air Force -1 (1x)
Only reason Air Force play isn't bigger is because the line movement is making me a bit hesitant + they are on the road.Comment -
California/USC u54 (1x)
This game has gone under for the past six years. Cal's defense has been very solid this year especially against the pass. They are only allowing 254 yards per game and that is including that Nevada game where they went for 497 yards. They haven't played cupcakes either. They have played Colorado, @ Nevada, @ Arizona, and UCLA the past four games. They have really stepped it up on defense and USC's defense is pretty good on the other side. Both these teams no each other very well, they know the personnel and they know what to expect. These defenses are too good to have the total this low. Sure Barkley and Riley can put up points but this will only go over if they are able to get the big runs off of each other. Cal has been very good against the run and USC has enough talent on that defense to limit what Cal wants to do offensively. I think USC wins in a tight game. Maybe 24-20.Comment -
Arkansas +4 (1x)
Boise St o56 (2x)Comment -
GL with your plays this week BJ, lots of plays I like and will be tailing.Comment -
Cal-USC under 54 caught my eye also. Might make a small on that or the OVER 69 in Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State game.
Can't agree with you on Kansas St.-Kansas game I think Kansas St. covers the (-3) and needs to rebound after last week's smashing. Also I feel Texas is way overrated....they should lose by 10 or more to a power house Nebraska program.
BOL to you on your other plays though
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I only got Texas +9.5 but really like the play, do you think it will see +10 again or should I just jump on now regardless of the key number?
GL this weekComment -
Not only do you seem to really know your sh*t, but you have the best avatar on the forum! Nice work. BOL this week
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Gl this week BJ looks goodComment -
You can get 10 on Bet Phoenix right now. If not then just buy it up to 10. I had -105 +9.5 and bought it up.
Thanks a lot and
Good luck.
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Guys, after looking at it over and over I really think Kansas +3 is the play tonight in that game.
Kansas +3 (0.5x)
Also liking that over in the WVU but going to wait and see.Comment -
love ur picks. BOL
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I think taking kansas here is alot like last night how people over thought themselves into taking marshall, Kansas state is so much of a better football team this game seems to easy cause it is. Kansas hasnt really looked good all year and theres nothing showing that this should change tonight kansas state should win this game in the 10-14 point range... but thats why we play the game goodluck evryone no matter who ya take..Comment -
The glaring difference between tonight and last night is this is a rivalry game and Kansas St is a much worse road team then UCF. I just thought Marshall would show up and had they not had a pick 6, kick return, and dropped bomb then who knows what that final is. Marshall had success against a good pass defense like I thought they might but didn't expect the defense to get gashed early in the game like that.Comment -
BJ, I hate to say it. I have jumped on the WV band wagon. I have looked over this game a lot today and I just feel that WV on a Thursday nite is the play. May regret it but I know I was telling you a few days ago I liked the USF D to keep them in it but then again they just lost at home to a Syracuse team that is not that good. I dont think they can generate the Offense to stay in this game. The D will keep them in it for a bit but WV has done pretty well outside of the game against the big interstate rival Marshall.
Im on it small but im liking WV. Also I believe Coach Stewart knows his seat will get hot if he doesnt have his team performing well tonite when all the country will be watching.Comment -
Denver Broncos +3 (3x)
Loving this play a lot. Everything about it. For starters everyone is on the Jets jocks after a nice little four game run after losing to Baltimore. The line has held strong at 3 and the books seem to just want to keep juicing the Jets money. The Jets fall though because this is a terrible match up for them. Look at the Jets defensive backs, very solid at times but they have shown a lot of vulnerability at the safety spots. You can't hate on Revis but he still doesn't seem to be back at 100% yet. Cromartie is a play maker but he has drawn a lot of flags this year due to his physical nature of play. Wilson looked great in the preseason but has struggled a bit early this year. After that everyone is completely exploitable. The Broncos have the #1 passing game in the NFL and Kyle Orton has a ton of targets that he can hit with confidence. Look at the core of receivers; Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Lloyd, and Jabar Gaffney all bring something to the table and these guys are all capable of catching 10+ balls. The Jets are allowing 234 yards per game through the air and Orton is averaging 333 yards per game. You have to think the Broncos will get there points. The Jets strength is run defense and creating turnovers through pressure. The problem is the Broncos don't want to run the ball. They are averaging just 54 yards per game and really don't want to give it to anyone other then Moreno who looks like he is going to miss this one again. Also, the Jets have not been getting quite as much pressure as they are used to and I think this defense may struggle against the most underrated quarterback in the league. Sanchez will throw his first pick in this one, take it to the bank this pass defense is a very good one. Denver has won the last two meetings and Denver is a very tough place to win without a quarterback.Comment -
I know it might be early but have you looked at the game tomorrow night. Cinci giving 3.5 to louisville at home. I am leaning to Louisville tomorrow getting the points. It will be interesting to see the running game of louisville go up against the number 8 rushing defense in the country. I have all ready lost twice this year on Cinci but feel pretty good right now about louisville. They really seem to be a differrent team on the road compared at home. I am shocked how well they played the Sooners and they seem to be getting back to there old form the last two games, again that was at home though. Any input would be great. THX...u still on South Florida tonight and kansas???Comment -
I agree and actually think Denver may win outright. Jets coming off a short week after yet another emotional win...this will be close and Denver could pull it out at the end. The Jets, although a good team, have had a lot of things go their way. I think that ends this week and Denver pulls one out of their collective asses.
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I agree and actually think Denver may win outright. Jets coming off a short week after yet another emotional win...this will be close and Denver could pull it out at the end. The Jets, although a good team, have had a lot of things go their way. I think that ends this week and Denver pulls one out of their collective asses.
Denver wins this by at least a TD. Agree with what you said, lot's of things going the Jets way so far. Good luck.Comment -
It might be time to start fading USF from here on out. This Daniels kid might be good next year or his senior year, but he's horrible right now.Comment -
Be careful Jets are no "flash in the pan" team. Remember they only lost to Baltimore 10-9 and could have easily won that game had they opened up their playbook like they have since week 2. They can easily be 5-0 instead of 4-1.
I like Jets here.Comment -
How about Kansas State? That's messed up, what was the spread, what a game. I guess we should take them a little more seriously?Comment -
I know this might be difficult, but do you have reasoning for this? BJ wrote up some analysis explaining his play, where's yours?
So you're saying that a team that beat UCF at home by only four, and then after a bye week loses to Nebraska at home by 35 is a team we should take a little more seriously? Beating Kansas is no accomplishment.Comment -
BJ, I was just reading an article about the UNC/UVA game and that streak actually goes back to 1981. That's the last time UNC has won in Charlottesville. UVA has won 14 consecutive home games vs UNC, spanning almost 30 years now, and they are 20-7-1 vs UNC since 1982. They even won last season in Chapel Hill with a terrible 3-9 team. Beat the Heels 16-3.Comment
