New College Football Artificial Intelligence System:

**AdamL2424** · 11-12-10, 01:59 PM

Shiva what's makes you decide not to take one of the Overs? If the lines moves against us?

**ManBearPig** · 11-12-10, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by caseyking2

So if FSU is greater than -3.6 than it is a No Play. Is that right?

This is correct.

Shiva - Have you guys ever thought about how to handle the decimal factor as I think that part gets confusing for people. Any of us will know that you can't win a game by 4.4 pts or 5.7. Wouldn't it be more beneficial from a reading standpoint to more easily pick out a line to just round up if > .5 or down if < .5? If you think about it does it really change the outcome for you. Looking at Utah St a line of -5.7 is really saying 6 anyways since that would be the next closes key number in Football, so what it really says is that Utah St is NP if > -6.

You guys have a good thing going and I don't want to out think the room here but you always say you want input and that's mine so do with it what you wish. We appreciate the work you do regardless.

**DVEGAS** · 11-12-10, 02:05 PM

Shiva and anyone else on this thread. What are your thoughts on Reverse Line Movement.... because it looks like there is a huge RLM on the stanford game so far?

**DVEGAS** · 11-12-10, 02:12 PM

Adam, I believe he said if the total starts out at 50 and goes down to say...49 not to play the over. If the over goes up say 50 to 51 1/2 or more jump on the over. I think i am starting to understand....somebody check me

**caseyking2** · 11-12-10, 02:15 PM

Where do you guys find the line movement at. I use to check sportsbookspy.com but someone told me they were not accurate. I don't think they show line movement. I believe they just show % of people on sides

**ManBearPig** · 11-12-10, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by caseyking2

Where do you guys find the line movement at. I use to check sportsbookspy.com but someone told me they were not accurate. I don't think they show line movement. I believe they just show % of people on sides

Use what they have here on SBR odds, just click the Live Odds drop-down at the top. You can also go to Vegas Odds

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/nba/game/pointspread.html

**caseyking2** · 11-12-10, 02:21 PM

Clemson is +6 on Bodog so would Clemson be the play or is it just a No Play all together??

**caseyking2** · 11-12-10, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

Use what they have here on SBR odds, just click the Live Odds drop-down at the top. You can also go to Vegas Odds

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/nba/...intspread.html

Thanks Man. I've been watching his thread for a week or so and he is doing amazing just want to understand a little better. Thanks again

**ManBearPig** · 11-12-10, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by DVEGAS

Shiva and anyone else on this thread. What are your thoughts on Reverse Line Movement.... because it looks like there is a huge RLM on the stanford game so far?

RLM is something that a lot of people pay attention to and I think Diesel has a thread strictly on RLM plays but, correct me if I'm wrong, but this system of betting could really care less about RLM - talking about the AI system. The line does matter but the number don't actually have any baring on how the line is moving in relation to the public.

With that being said I would be curious how RLM games fair here and if there is any correlation. It's always good to pay attention and be aware of it but as anyone knows it doesn't make the bet a "lock".There are a lot of schools of thought on RLM so you will get different opinions from different people but I think it does do fairly well in football compared to b-ball, but don't put that in stone. Go check out diesel's thread on RLM and you can see how he's fared on strictly RLM plays - I think it's over 55%.

**DVEGAS** · 11-12-10, 02:38 PM

I just use SBRs live odds and look at where the line opened and where it is currently.

Stanford opened at -7 and has 70 % of the picks, and the line has dropped 2pts to stan -5.

Im not sure that RLM is really good to follow...ive looked at both threads AI and RLM and obviously the picks here are much much better.

**dvb02** · 11-12-10, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

AI System Plays 11/12/2010 Utah St, N/P if > -5.7 NMSU, play if pk or > + Louisville, N/P if > -5.6 UNLV, play if pk or > + UTAH, N/P if > -9.4 OKST, N/P if > -11.5 KSU, play if > +1.7 Stanford, N/P if > -8.7 FSU, N/P if > -3.6 AI System Over Plays 11/12 LU @ NMSU Wyoming @ UNLV KSU @ MIZZ EX; Utah St, N/P if > -5.7 or play to -5.7 We have a play on Utah St, if the line stays under -5.7 no play if the line gos over -5.7 on USU. FYI. We should pay close attention to the over plays, we want to see the line moving against us, this is a good sign that we are on the right side. EX; ECU @ UAB opened at 67 and closed at 68.5

Shiva, with this statement, do you refer to looking at the opening line and see if it moves higher(against us) or are you referring to the time you post the play(what line do we use to know if it is in fact working against us)?

**GGPLAYER** · 11-12-10, 04:22 PM

GGPlayer, the overs just keep coming,
[/quote]

I've lost track at this point. What are we like 30-5 on these in the last 6 weeks.

**shawood** · 11-12-10, 05:09 PM

rlm is not 100% but nothing is... there r some rules just as this system has... rlm has been above 60% from what i can see from the start of the season.. i like to use multiple systems and when i find a game they all agree on play it big and on the other games play but with less risk..but that is just how i play..

**gohabsgo** · 11-12-10, 07:50 PM

Good job on Ball State!

**DVEGAS** · 11-12-10, 08:17 PM

If I could go to a HS game and bet on it id probably rather do that than watch this garbage game. Ball st looks as if they should get it done though...thanks AI system

**udlock4life** · 11-12-10, 08:46 PM

BOL this weekend

**Dogway** · 11-12-10, 09:44 PM

Winner winner chicken dinner!!! Nice job chiva

**jcook** · 11-12-10, 10:20 PM

can u explain how u calculate the numbers...after messing around on sportrends, i couldnt figure out where u get ur numbers from

**DVEGAS** · 11-12-10, 10:48 PM

Dont worry about the #s just roll with it!!! the picks alone went 10-4 ats last week.

**jcook** · 11-12-10, 10:50 PM

nah i would like to be able to add some input and do things for myself...dont just wanna blindly tail the whole time...

im confused on the sportrends site...

**Dogway** · 11-12-10, 11:34 PM

It's like this. In his list of picks this weekend play Utah st only if you can get it @ - 5.7 or better. Like -5,-4, -3,-2 etc.

**jcook** · 11-12-10, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by Dogway

It's like this. In his list of picks this weekend play Utah st only if you can get it @ - 5.7 or better. Like -5,-4, -3,-2 etc.

yah i figured out that much...and if u r playing a dog, then play the over...

i just dont see where he gets the 5.7 number from...edit: i figured out where the 5.7 comes from

**BeBrave** · 11-13-10, 01:06 AM

ketchup

Trying to catch up as well. I see the current Utah State line is at -3.5 so that is a play as of now correct?

Thanks in Advance

Originally posted by Dogway

It's like this. In his list of picks this weekend play Utah st only if you can get it @ - 5.7 or better. Like -5,-4, -3,-2 etc.

**ShivaBowl** · 11-13-10, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by caseyking2

So if FSU is greater than -3.6 than it is a No Play. Is that right?

Correct

**ShivaBowl** · 11-13-10, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

This is correct. Shiva - Have you guys ever thought about how to handle the decimal factor as I think that part gets confusing for people. Any of us will know that you can't win a game by 4.4 pts or 5.7. Wouldn't it be more beneficial from a reading standpoint to more easily pick out a line to just round up if > .5 or down if < .5? If you think about it does it really change the outcome for you. Looking at Utah St a line of -5.7 is really saying 6 anyways since that would be the next closes key number in Football, so what it really says is that Utah St is NP if > -6. You guys have a good thing going and I don't want to out think the room here but you always say you want input and that's mine so do with it what you wish. We appreciate the work you do regardless.

Yes I have, but I'm a true believer in Sportrends and using their exact numbers.
Thanks

**ShivaBowl** · 11-13-10, 01:43 AM

AI System Plays 11/11
Based on early lines.

East Carolina, pk to + points for ECU. WIN
For ECU to be a play the book line
must be ECU a pick or getting points.

AI System Over Play WIN
ECU @ UAB

AI System Play NFL 11/11 WIN N/P
Atlanta, to -1.1
No Play if Atlanta, >-1.1

AI, 1-0
Over, 1-0

AI System Play 11/12/10
Ball State, no play if Ball > -1.4 WIN

AI, 1-0

AI System Plays 11/13/2010

Utah St, N/P if > -5.7
NMSU, play if pk or > +
Louisville, N/P if > -5.6
UNLV, play if pk or > +
UTAH, N/P if > -9.4
OKST, N/P if > -11.5
KSU, play if > +1.7
Stanford, N/P if > -8.7
FSU, N/P if > -3.6

AI System Over Plays 11/13

LU @ NMSU
Wyoming @ UNLV
KSU @ MIZZ

EX; Utah St, N/P if > -5.7 or play to -5.7
We have a play on Utah St, if the line stays under -5.7 no play if the line gos over -5.7 on USU.

**ShivaBowl** · 11-13-10, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

GGPlayer, the overs just keep coming,

I've lost track at this point. What are we like 30-5 on these in the last 6 weeks.

[/quote]

GGPLAYER, I'm sure you have already figured this out and if I correctly remember, we discussed it about two week ago, but I have update one filter, with the AI Over plays.
We are playing the over on any team that comes in with a differential of, to < -1.0
Case in point East Carolina came in at, to - 0.4
Just to make things simple, I will just post the plays, pk or > +
EX; Ball St come in at, no play if Ball St > -1.4 and that's over the differential filter of, to - 1.0 that's way Ball St was not, an over play last night.
Thanks for your help.
BOL this weekend.
Shiva

**ManBearPig** · 11-13-10, 04:50 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

I've lost track at this point. What are we like 30-5 on these in the last 6 weeks.

GGPLAYER, I'm sure you have already figured this out and if I correctly remember, we discussed it about two week ago, but I have update one filter, with the AI Over plays. We are playing the over on any team that comes in with a differential of, to < -1.0 Case in point East Carolina came in at, to - 0.4 Just to make things simple, I will just post the plays, pk or > + EX; Ball St come in at, no play if Ball St > -1.4 and that's over the differential filter of, to - 1.0 that's way Ball St was not, an over play last night. Thanks for your help. BOL this weekend. Shiva

Dam I messed up and played the Ball St over parlayed with Ball St...I thought it was an over play...whoops!!

**Aussiecapper101** · 11-13-10, 05:08 AM

**i2idiniow** · 11-13-10, 05:35 AM

Hey Shiva, how could both NMSt and UNLV be play if "pick and > +" when the scores are different? Shouldn't UNLV be play if > +4.5?

**BigMama** · 11-13-10, 06:30 AM

A great day for all..

**dvb02** · 11-13-10, 08:15 AM

...

**dvb02** · 11-13-10, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

I've lost track at this point. What are we like 30-5 on these in the last 6 weeks.

GGPLAYER, I'm sure you have already figured this out and if I correctly remember, we discussed it about two week ago, but I have update one filter, with the AI Over plays. We are playing the over on any team that comes in with a differential of, to < -1.0 Case in point East Carolina came in at, to - 0.4 Just to make things simple, I will just post the plays, pk or > + EX; Ball St come in at, no play if Ball St > -1.4 and that's over the differential filter of, to - 1.0 that's way Ball St was not, an over play last night. Thanks for your help. BOL this weekend. Shiva [/quote]

So are you saying if there is a + sign at the end, then the over is also a play? I am still a little confused.

**ShivaBowl** · 11-13-10, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

Dam I messed up and played the Ball St over parlayed with Ball St...I thought it was an over play...whoops!!

There wasn't a post here, for a over play on Ball St.

**ShivaBowl** · 11-13-10, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by dvb02

GGPLAYER, I'm sure you have already figured this out and if I correctly remember, we discussed it about two week ago, but I have update one filter, with the AI Over plays. We are playing the over on any team that comes in with a differential of, to < -1.0 Case in point East Carolina came in at, to - 0.4 Just to make things simple, I will just post the plays, pk or > + EX; Ball St come in at, no play if Ball St > -1.4 and that's over the differential filter of, to - 1.0 that's way Ball St was not, an over play last night. Thanks for your help. BOL this weekend. Shiva

Originally Posted by dvb02 So are you saying if there is a + sign at the end, then the over is also a play? I am still a little confused.[/quote]

Yes that's correct.