Cal (-1.5) @ U.N.R.

**MendozaLine** · 09-12-10, 07:51 PM

CAL has a tendency to have a let down game early in the season. I would stay away

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-12-10, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by MendozaLine

CAL has a tendency to have a let down game early in the season. I would stay away

This has happened before; you're right.

Though, I think Shane Vereen and Co. will run roughshod over UNR's defense.

**aweweo808** · 09-12-10, 08:00 PM

I totally agree with you on how Reno's O is a bit overrated. They have put up big numbers this year nad in the past. The level of competition that they play against is by far weaker then Cal. Like Mendoza was saying cal does have trouble on the road at times. May be a no play or small play on Cal.

**Powerhaus** · 09-12-10, 08:10 PM

Cal has a nice squad this year with no real question marks on either side of the ball. With that said, Cal always has a few let up games every year and this could be another!

**sammy3** · 09-12-10, 09:08 PM

I'm on it as well!

**mandude** · 09-12-10, 09:34 PM

I know Cal has lost to some shitty teams in the past but when has Nevada ever beat a good team? The Wolfpack has been handled by BCS teams every time & I don't see anything changing here. Though I do agree this line makes no sense. You think it would be higher.

**Mike9999** · 09-12-10, 10:43 PM

I'm with you on Cal.

BOL this week.

**PAPSMEAR** · 09-13-10, 12:32 AM

where the line smells and you play you normally get caked in shit. Not always but more often then not. Cal line should be closer to double digits here. That concerns me.

**No coincidences** · 09-13-10, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by mandude

I know Cal has lost to some shitty teams in the past but when has Nevada ever beat a good team? The Wolfpack has been handled by BCS teams every time & I don't see anything changing here. Though I do agree this line makes no sense. You think it would be higher.

This. Cal, big. If it's a trap, so be it. Live and learn.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-13-10, 12:49 AM

Guys, you all are crazy if you think the books give out free money. Nevada is clearly the play here. Nevada is my sleeper team in the WAC and I think they are going to beat Boise and BYU this year. Kaepernick is a straight up baller and will be the difference here. Most of Nevada's roster is made up of guys from California. Be very careful taking Cal. The line is going to go up every day this week then start to fall at game time. Watch...

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-13-10, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by PAPSMEAR

where the line smells and you play you normally get caked in shit. Not always but more often then not. Cal line should be closer to double digits here. That concerns me.

Duely noted, but already considered.

I'll lie in my bed when I make it; even if the bed turns out to be a shit-filled whale carcass.

**No coincidences** · 09-13-10, 12:55 AM

Already up to 2.5, and about to hit 3 at Pinny.

This will probably be 3.5 or even 4 by gametime.

**No coincidences** · 09-13-10, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Guys, you all are crazy if you think the books give out free money. Nevada is clearly the play here. Nevada is my sleeper team in the WAC and I think they are going to beat Boise and BYU this year. Kaepernick is a straight up baller and will be the difference here. Most of Nevada's roster is made up of guys from California. Be very careful taking Cal. The line is going to go up every day this week then start to fall at game time. Watch...

With all due respect, you're crazy -- especially re: Boise.

I've watched both teams play, and Nevada -- especially defensively -- is not ready to take down a legitimate Pac-10 team. Offensively, they might be able to hang. Might. Their QB is solid, but puts up video game #'s vs. shitty teams. Their D is atrocious. How quickly people forget the SMU bowl game.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-13-10, 01:01 AM

Dude, that's cool & all that they're your super-duper, dusty, shadow-sleeper, but I know this team well from actually watching them live many-a-time. Colin Kaepernick is a good athlete, but he'll be in a hole if the running game is neutralized, having to meet edge players and 'backers that are just as fast as he is. I know Chris Ault will cringe at the thought of the game relying on Kaepernick's thowing abilities.

Kevin Riley may uncharacteristically look like a world beater in this game; U.N.R.'s secondary play is hideous.

**paste_me** · 09-13-10, 03:06 AM

by game time this will be 7

**paste_me** · 09-13-10, 03:12 AM

dude im in, heavy money on Cal right here...

if this is a trap, they got me

**hoop guru** · 09-13-10, 10:09 PM

CAL backers you are goin to win. I would not say its a lock but close eneough. I would also take CAL -1.5 or -2 first half. IF CAL does not cover first half, take CAL 2nd half real heavy. Oddsmakers want CAL to cover this spread and that is why it was set so low. There is no way Nevada is goin to cover third straight home in a row.

**hoop guru** · 09-13-10, 11:04 PM

NEvada played 4 non-conference games in 2009 and lost them all.

@ ND 35-0 loss
@ CSU 35-20 loss
MIissouri 31-21 loss
SMU 45-10 loss

CAL is a better team than those four teams that beat nevada in 2009. Nevada has won both nonconference games games so far this season. That streak is about to come to abrupt end on friday night.

**jboy4** · 09-13-10, 11:07 PM

I actually like Nevada here.

**cappinthepigs** · 09-13-10, 11:10 PM

I have no idea what is up with that line?

**hoop guru** · 09-13-10, 11:11 PM

Nevada is not goin to win this game. I would not take nevada plus the points in a game that they are goin to lose.

**steve18** · 09-13-10, 11:19 PM

I'd pound Cal all the way up to 7. Good luck to Colorado when they join the Pac 10 next season.

**paste_me** · 09-13-10, 11:20 PM

lol @ colorado football

**hoop guru** · 09-13-10, 11:44 PM

oddsmakers have a choice to set the spread low (cal -3) or set it high (CAL -10). IF they set high at CAL -10, everyone would still be on CAL including myself. I think oddsmakers want CAL to cover the spread and that is why it is set low at CAL -3. IF oddsmakers wanted nevada to cover 3rd straight home game, the spread would have to be set really high.

**paste_me** · 09-13-10, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by hoop guru

oddsmakers have a choice to set the spread low (cal -3) or set it high (CAL -10). IF they set high at CAL -10, everyone would still be on CAL including myself. I think oddsmakers want CAL to cover the spread and that is why it is set low at CAL -3. IF oddsmakers wanted nevada to cover 3rd straight home game, the spread would have to be set really high.

?
I never think this deep. Why do you think they would want Cal to cover? Just b/c UNR covered last 2 games?

**Mthorn** · 09-14-10, 12:23 AM

Yes, cal at that spread seems tooo good to be true.. dropping it on cal also.

**NardVa** · 09-14-10, 12:35 AM

Take Nevada ML. WAC conference has done their thing so far this year. Boise St beat VA Tech and Fresno State beat Cincinnati. Add Nevada to list of WAC teams taking down a team from a major conference.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-14-10, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by NardVa

Take Nevada ML. WAC conference has done their thing so far this year. Boise St beat VA Tech and Fresno State beat Cincinnati. Add Nevada to list of WAC teams taking down a team from a major conference.

This is specious reasoning at best.

What do Boise and Fresno have to do with Nevada's particular performance when actually lining up to play Cal on Friday?

Nothing.

This is an unprepared and underwhelming defensive unit here in Reno. I saw a line set like this for their home match-up against Missouri last season, at, suffice to say, it was night of fist pounding looking at the people in this sportsbooks cursing the fact that they fell for the low line that was set.

**xyzky** · 09-14-10, 02:24 PM

I live in Reno and have watched and read about this team for 4 years now...Our Secondary will get eaten alive...Ault is not a big game coach...NV is better as a live dog, but, this is not the case in this matchup, they are mearly getting respect because they can score on weaker opponents. I had this line opening at -13, so -2.5 is a max unit play for me.

**Serbone** · 09-14-10, 05:20 PM

This is specious reasoning at best.

What do Boise and Fresno have to do with Nevada's particular performance when actually lining up to play Cal on Friday?

Nothing.

Yes, Boise and Fresno does have something to do with it!
WAC and MW teams get UP when they play BCS teams early in the season. HUGE factor.
You are betting almost strictly on "motivation".
It will be a BIG game for Nevada, WAC teams always up for PAC-10 / BCS.
Cal may not be too excited, but they might be smart enough to come in and play a good one.
If Cal is fired up, then:
1) Nevada is mostly a run oriented, one dimensional, offense, Cal athletes should be able to stop them sometimes, not fearing the pass, whereas
2) if Cal plays hard, Nevada will struggle to stop Cal.
But I fear a Cal letdown, whilst Nevada will be pumped.
I'd go with Nevada, not sure I will bet it, but good competitive club at home, night game, would like to knock off BCS team.

**freeVICK** · 09-14-10, 05:55 PM

according to the line, Nevada is the play. but Chris ault is the worst coach ever. and he will find a way to fck over wolf pack backers. no play for me

**hoop guru** · 09-14-10, 06:52 PM

CAL is goin to be motivated because they are not ranked in the top 25 yet. A 3-0 start would get CAL a top 25 ranking. A 3-0 start would also get Nevada ranked but CAL is not goin to lose. There probably be more golden bear fans at this home game.

**Serbone** · 09-14-10, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by hoop guru

CAL is goin to be motivated because they are not ranked in the top 25 yet. A 3-0 start would get CAL a top 25 ranking. A 3-0 start would also get Nevada ranked but CAL is not goin to lose. There probably be more golden bear fans at this home game.

Great point.
Will the coaches sell it?
Will the kids "buy in"?
Or be looking ahead to the PAC-10 BCS schedule.
Hard to know.
We DO know Nevada will be pumped.
"Over" might be the way to go if weather is OK.

**jarvol** · 09-14-10, 07:29 PM

I agree the line looks too good to be true which usually scares me off but Cal's big letdowns early in the season usually come on the East Coast like at Maryland and Tennessee. This is short bus ride across the mountain. Nevada may well put up some points but I'd be shocked if Cal punts more than once or twice. Cal should be able to manhandle them.