BOISE STATE to win BCS +900

[andywend]

Please teach me oh brilliant one.

Nobs, you stated the following:

Even if they lose to Va Tech, they would still play for the title at 11-1 IMO. A loss to Va TEch drops them maybe to #10, then they would have to win their next 11 ( which they have to do anyway ), but I think they would creep back up each week and by the time conf. play starts they would be back up to #5 or #6 or higher. Then in SEC play I say both Bama and Fla will take a loss and Texas will in the big 12, so I say Boise would still have time to get back up to #2 or even #1 if they lose to Va Tech

If you honestly believe that Boise State can still play for the title after losing to Virginia Tech, then there really isn't much hope for you.

Boise State's schedule:

DateOpponentTime/Result
Sep 6@Virginia Tech8:00pm
Sep 18@Wyoming8:00pm
Sep 25Oregon St.
Oct 2@New Mexico St.8:00pm
Oct 9Toledo8:00pm
Oct 16@San Jose St.8:00pm
Oct 26Louisiana Tech8:00pm
Nov 6Hawaii2:00pm
Nov 12@Idaho9:00pm
Nov 19Fresno St.9:30pm
Nov 26@Nevada10:15pm
Dec 4Utah St.3:00pm

Virginia Tech is ranked #10 in the AP pre-season poll. Take a good, long hard look at the remaining 11 teams on Boise States schedule and try to use some common sense.

Boise State just isn't going to get the nod in any close situation AND THEY SHOULDN'T based on their schedule.

They are going to be 10+ point favorites against Oregon State and Nevada and 30 point favorites against everyone else.

They have a 55% chance to beat Virginia Tech. Lets assume its 50/50 on them running the table the rest of the way (games 2-12). Finally, we'll assume they have a 40% chance to win the championship game (money line of +150 which assumes Boise State will be a 3 point dog in the BCS title game) which is more than generous.

55% X 50% X 40% = +800

Even if you were 100% certain that Boise State was going to play in the championship game if they go 12-0, the bet at +900 only has marginal positive expected value. Since they have been left out of the big game with an undefeated record in the past and their schedule this year is softer than ever, its fair to say there is at least some reasonable chance they don't play in the BCS title game even with an undefeated record.

Taking all this into account, betting Boise State @ +900 to win the BCS championship game has negative expectation.

[bbar86]

I still dont see why so many people are saying they will beat VT. I just dont see that happening, and therefore wont even get into the title game

[Uncle Harv]

I dont understand your logic here. Look, I want Boise to run the table as bad as you, and they have a great shot if they can escape Va Tech, but if they lose that game, there is no way they get in the BCS title game over a 1 loss Bama or Fla squad. Especially Bama. The BCS loves the SEC, as they should, and will keep favoring them. That said, go Broncos!

[Husker36]

The campain against Boise St has already started. The talk on sports radio is that the top 7 teams in the Big Ten could win every game that Boise St plays this year. They are not going to reward Boise State for playing a weak schedule. If Boise State goes undefeated this year they will probably be shut out of the BCS Championship game once again. Boise State is fun to watch and fun to bet on..... but they dont have the same talent as Texas, Ohio State, Florida, etc. I think they said today that Boise State is 4-6 against the last BCS teams that they have played. Not real impressive.

[Sean81]

The campain against Boise St has already started. The talk on sports radio is that the top 7 teams in the Big Ten could win every game that Boise St plays this year. They are not going to reward Boise State for playing a weak schedule. If Boise State goes undefeated this year they will probably be shut out of the BCS Championship game once again. Boise State is fun to watch and fun to bet on..... but they dont have the same talent as Texas, Ohio State, Florida, etc. I think they said today that Boise State is 4-6 against the last BCS teams that they have played. Not real impressive.

So Va Tech and Oregon St would not finish in the top 7 of the Big Ten? Who knew. If Boise runs the table and is the only team undefeated, they will definitely be in.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Boise State has 1 test this year. They open at Virginia Tech. That is the only game in question. But guess what ? Virginia Tech returns 4 defensive starters and this defense is not going to be good this year, and definitely not during week 1. Boise State will likely roll this Va Tech defense and win this game big. Remember Boise State is bringing back their whole offense while Va Tech has pretty much all new starters on defense. Even if Boise State loses to Va Tech, which they wont...

Yeah, but what do you know about Virginia Tech's defense other than the number of listed, returning starters?

Bud Foster and Ryan Williams lend themselves to much credibility.

[nobs]

Boise has a good chance of getting in a BCS game but your crazy if you think they're going to make the championship game AND your even crazier if you think they can actually win that game.

If they go 12-0, they will play for the championship. Period. The line on them going 12-0 is -200 on the NO.

I found this with a season win total of 11 1/2 under -200 over +160 at enterbet.com and sportsbook.com.

So that is the same as saying will they go 12-0

YES +160
NO -200

The +900 can be hedged no matter who they play for the title, they wont be +900 in that game. If they go 12-0, that will be like 30 straight wins, so likely the other team will be -150 or less, so it can be scalped for a much better profit than just betting that they will go 12-0 at +160.

Also, you can say what you want, you have a right to your opinions, but they are just your opinions, not facts. Boise State can definitly lose to Va Tech close in pretty much a road game, and still play for the title if things fall their way. Like if Bama loses 2 and Ohio State loses 1.

There can be 1 team in front of them, they lose to Va Tech they probably fall to #10 if its a close loss. That gives them all year to move back up and yes they will move back up when Bama loses 2 and Ohio State loses.

Who else is dominate this year ? Bama is ranked #1 and I will be my left nut they lose at least 1 and probably 2, but at least 1. Their season win total is 10, so that says they have to lose 3 before you would lose the over on that play. Shit they might lose 3.

Oklahoma isnt as dominate as in the past, Texas is good but big 12 is too tough and McCoy is gone, Florida wont go undefeated, these teams will all lose later in the year.

yes I agree Boise needs to go 12-0 to GUARANTEE their spot in the title game, because their schedule is shit, but even 11-1 losing close to Va Tech could get them there if they get a few breaks.

Still its a mute point because I just dont see them losing to Va Tech.

[nobs]

They have a 55% chance to beat Virginia Tech. Lets assume its 50/50 on them running the table the rest of the way (games 2-12). Finally, we'll assume they have a 40% chance to win the championship game (money line of +150 which assumes Boise State will be a 3 point dog in the BCS title game) which is more than generous.

55% X 50% X 40% = +800

Even if you were 100% certain that Boise State was going to play in the championship game if they go 12-0, the bet at +900 only has marginal positive expected value. Since they have been left out of the big game with an undefeated record in the past and their schedule this year is softer than ever, its fair to say there is at least some reasonable chance they don't play in the BCS title game even with an undefeated record.

Taking all this into account, betting Boise State @ +900 to win the BCS championship game has negative expectation.

Andy the problem is that you make up the figures to arrive at the conclusion you want. The Moneyline I see on Boise State/Va tech game is -170 Boise State, and + 160 Va tech.

so +160 Va Tech and you say they have a 45 % chance of winning. ( 45 * 2.6 = 117 ).

The +160 on Va Tech says it closer to 62% Bosie, 38% Va Tech in that game. But of course, you cant use that number in your calculation because then.

62% to beat Va Tech
50% ( games 2-12 )
40% to win Title ( way too low IMO )

= + 700


Even your match came up with them being "marginally +EV", so you had to factor in a 1 in a million shot that they would go 12-0 and not make the title game, to arrive at the conclusion you want.

Even using your seriously flawed numbers and your flawed logic about them going 12-0 and being left out, you arrive at this being right at Even EV. Tell me what national championship future is any better ? Is Bama at +400 better ? This team could well lose 3 games, I doubt it but I wouldnt be shocked.

[Glitch]

they can go undefeated and get shafted again. thats still a factor that makes it an even riskier wager.

[nobs]

I just dont see it, team starts ranked #3 and there is a feeling they got fked last year ( at least by some ). If they go undefeated, they will get a shot, team will have 30 straight wins, 2 straight undefeateds, and there are going to be losses at the top. Who else can go undefeated ?

Maybe Ohio State, not Texas, not bama, not FLa, I doubt even Ohio State because Penn State and Wiscy and Iowa tough this year.

I just cant imagine this team going 12-0 and not egtting a shot. Wont happen

[WorkHorse]

Suppose Boise State played in the Southeastern Conference this year against Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU etc. Big, fast, physical teams week after week. What would their record be?

As much as I like Boise State.....their chances of playing in a national title game is slim and none.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Andy the problem is that you make up the figures to arrive at the conclusion you want. The Moneyline I see on Boise State/Va tech game is -170 Boise State, and + 160 Va tech.

Holy Fvcking Science.

Where are you getting +160 on Tech? I put my play on them 2 days ago at +125 here in Reno.

[Husker36]

You honestly think they will ever allow Boise State, or any team in a non-BCS conference, to play for the national championship?? They will do whatever it takes to make sure that never happens.... even if it means adding time on the clock!!

[Bigpete2010]

Thats what i'm talking about!!!!

[cornhuskfan]

they will need a lot of extra help to get there. Just by going undefeated with a mediocre schedule at best won't put them there. The closer we get to these mega conferences the less likely you will see Boise state going. BCS computer rankings (lol) are awfully smart about money. go for total regular season victories at 11 for plus money they will have to lose two games in order for you to lose and they are going to have to go undefeated for a championship anyways. Good luck with what you do.

[nobs]

I solidly believe Boise State will be in the championship game this year, and I just checked the Greek has Boise State at +500 now

[PeePee]

This line is current at youwager. The Greek has Boise State at +800 to win the BCS.

This line is fking NUTS. Both books have Alabama at +400 to win it again this year.

Yet Alabama's win total is 9 1/2 or 10 depending on the book. Boise States win total is 11. Both teams play 12 games. This makes no sense and just further shows how lines at books are often very ineffiecent.

When we look at win totals, books are saying Bama will lose 2 maybe 3 games, while Boise State will lose 1, but Bama is 3 times more likely to win the BCS title ???

Anyway this isnt about Bama, its about the fact that Boise State at +900 is stupid crazy idiotic +EV. This team returns 10 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense from last years 14-0 team that outscored the world by like 25 points. This was the highest scoring offense last year and with this weak schedule it probably will be again.

Boise State has 1 test this year. They open at Virginia Tech. That is the only game in question. But guess what ? Virginia Tech returns 4 defensive starters and this defense is not going to be good this year, and definitely not during week 1. Boise State will likely roll this Va Tech defense and win this game big. Remember Boise State is bringing back their whole offense while Va Tech has pretty much all new starters on defense.

Even if Boise State loses to Va Tech, which they wont but even if they do, they will probably only fall to like #8-#10 in the rankings and they will still work their way back into the national tital picture by winning their next 11. A loss at Va Tech is not going to be a deal killer if Boise ends up 11-1.

There is a big differnce for Boise this year. They start off #5 in one poll and #3 in the other poll. Lets keep it real here, Alabama is going to lose and they are going to lose more than once. They arent that great, they have a good deal of new starters and most importantly they play a brutal ass schedule. Florida is going to lose, Texas ( big 12 ) is going to lose, and Ohio State is probably going to lose.

IF Boise loses, it will be in week 1 and they will still jump ahead of Bama, Florida, and Texas because those teams loses will be later in the season.

Seriously who could possibly beat the Broncos after week 1

WYOMING
OREGON STATE
NEW MEXICO STATE
TOLEDO
SAN JOSE STATE
LA TECH
HAWAII
IDAHO
FRESNO STATE
NEVADA
UTAH STATE

I think the real question is which if any of these teams can stay within 20 points of Boise State.

I know nothing is a guarantee, but Boise State should roll those last 11 games and they have shown they win games they are supposed to win. 14-0 last year, 49-3 last 4 years. They should win those last 11 and if history is any indication, they will take care of business.

If this team goes 12-0 or even 11-1 ( losing to Va Tech ) I dont see how the BCS could not give them a shot at the title after they went 14-0 last year and didnt get a shot.

Then once they get to the title game it depends on who they are playing, but whoever it is you can hedge the other side easily. I would expect Boise will be a small favorite against whoever they play but they will be no more than a -150 dog.

Fact is looking at their schedule and the fact that Va Tech's D is way down this year, there just is no sense at all in Boise State being +900 to win the BCS. The fact is with Boise's easy ass schedule, and already being ranked top 5, they are the most likely of ANY team to win the BCS yet there are like 6 teams who are lower than +900.

I think +400 on Boise would be +EV, I know +900 is.

Well put, nobs. Boise @ +800 is great value.... considering you can hedge the bet. I don't see Boise st lose any game the rest of the season.

[PeePee]

Worth a shot for $100 at +550. I'm pretty sure I can hedge when it comes to that. Don't see Boise not getting into the top 2 spots if they run the table... unless they barely squeak by some easy games. Or, of course, the injury factor.

Thanks, Nobs, for pointing this out.

[dontazeme1]

This line is current at youwager. The Greek has Boise State at +800 to win the BCS.

This line is fking NUTS. Both books have Alabama at +400 to win it again this year.

Yet Alabama's win total is 9 1/2 or 10 depending on the book. Boise States win total is 11. Both teams play 12 games. This makes no sense and just further shows how lines at books are often very ineffiecent.

When we look at win totals, books are saying Bama will lose 2 maybe 3 games, while Boise State will lose 1, but Bama is 3 times more likely to win the BCS title ???

Anyway this isnt about Bama, its about the fact that Boise State at +900 is stupid crazy idiotic +EV. This team returns 10 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense from last years 14-0 team that outscored the world by like 25 points. This was the highest scoring offense last year and with this weak schedule it probably will be again.

Boise State has 1 test this year. They open at Virginia Tech. That is the only game in question. But guess what ? Virginia Tech returns 4 defensive starters and this defense is not going to be good this year, and definitely not during week 1. Boise State will likely roll this Va Tech defense and win this game big. Remember Boise State is bringing back their whole offense while Va Tech has pretty much all new starters on defense.

Even if Boise State loses to Va Tech, which they wont but even if they do, they will probably only fall to like #8-#10 in the rankings and they will still work their way back into the national tital picture by winning their next 11. A loss at Va Tech is not going to be a deal killer if Boise ends up 11-1.

There is a big differnce for Boise this year. They start off #5 in one poll and #3 in the other poll. Lets keep it real here, Alabama is going to lose and they are going to lose more than once. They arent that great, they have a good deal of new starters and most importantly they play a brutal ass schedule. Florida is going to lose, Texas ( big 12 ) is going to lose, and Ohio State is probably going to lose.

IF Boise loses, it will be in week 1 and they will still jump ahead of Bama, Florida, and Texas because those teams loses will be later in the season.

Seriously who could possibly beat the Broncos after week 1

WYOMING
OREGON STATE
NEW MEXICO STATE
TOLEDO
SAN JOSE STATE
LA TECH
HAWAII
IDAHO
FRESNO STATE
NEVADA
UTAH STATE

I think the real question is which if any of these teams can stay within 20 points of Boise State.

I know nothing is a guarantee, but Boise State should roll those last 11 games and they have shown they win games they are supposed to win. 14-0 last year, 49-3 last 4 years. They should win those last 11 and if history is any indication, they will take care of business.

If this team goes 12-0 or even 11-1 ( losing to Va Tech ) I dont see how the BCS could not give them a shot at the title after they went 14-0 last year and didnt get a shot.

Then once they get to the title game it depends on who they are playing, but whoever it is you can hedge the other side easily. I would expect Boise will be a small favorite against whoever they play but they will be no more than a -150 dog.

Fact is looking at their schedule and the fact that Va Tech's D is way down this year, there just is no sense at all in Boise State being +900 to win the BCS. The fact is with Boise's easy ass schedule, and already being ranked top 5, they are the most likely of ANY team to win the BCS yet there are like 6 teams who are lower than +900.

I think +400 on Boise would be +EV, I know +900 is.

boise lets good man was very impressed with their line play, and how they pressured ryan williams without having to blitz

[nobs]

BOISE now # 1 in BCS and I just cant see Ohio State getting through undefeated. Boise wont and cant lose and games to get a shot at it. At this point I just cant see Boise not playing for the championship this year. To me, the only question right now is who they will be playing against.

Whoever it is wont be more than a -200 ML favorite so can easily hedge the + 900

[nobs]

Nebraska lost

Ohio State down 14




+900 on a team that will definittely play for the national title