Fresno State -1 vs. Cincy..

**The DiB** · 08-16-10, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by kalamity85;5867153[B

]i just hope fresno can keep pounding the ball and have a good running back to replace mathews. [/B] if so i think fresno has a chance

I wouldn't worry about that, I'd expect to see a lot of that again. FS was able to keep it close @ Cincy by playing ball control last year. With all 5 linemen back and HB Robbie Rouse, who had a solid freshmen season last year, FS will hang around all game.

**canepole** · 08-16-10, 09:49 AM

go with cinn

**HoulihansTX** · 08-16-10, 11:36 AM

Can believe people are betting this game.

**HoulihansTX** · 08-16-10, 11:36 AM

Cant believe people are betting this game.

**iwantcougars** · 08-16-10, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Cant believe people are betting this game.

Why not?, this a better game to cap than most early bcs vs fcs games with huge spreads (24 or + points)

**jnickell100** · 08-16-10, 04:04 PM

Fresnos offense will not be the problem nor has it ever. It doesnt matter that Mathews in gone, they run the ball no matter who is there and that is fact. They have 3 good RB that can come in and play anytime. Colburn is an OK qb with good accuracy but fvcks up during the big moments in the game. He also seems to hold the ball to long and takes sacks, but this seems to be a problem with all Fresno Qbs. Their OL in going to be good as it always is.

Their Defense is alway the problem. Fresno never gets any pressure on the qb and is pretty easy to expose. The play bend but dont break D, but it always breaks. They play a base D most of the time and rarely mix it up with bump and run and/or blitz.

With that said, i think it will be a close game. Fresno plays up and down to their competition. They can play the best teams in the nation close but will also let Utah State and NMSU play close. I cant see Fresno losing though but should be a good game.

**pitman** · 08-16-10, 04:40 PM

i like the play

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-24-10, 06:16 AM

Originally posted by RPP

Collares will pass for 300+ yards and 3 TDs in this game.

The likelihood of this occuring is high IMO.

Extrapolating what Butch Jones has done in the past 3 years with the C. Michigan offense to what Zach Collaros has shown in action, and what he has offensively at his disposal, it's starting to look like this game is about 5 points off to me. Fresno's returning defense is lackluster, and, I feel, that the quality control brought over in its entirety by Jones will show well.

Good luck.

**jahred6999** · 08-24-10, 09:17 AM

I'm all in on Fresno with this one!

**OverUnder** · 08-24-10, 09:21 AM

Fresno State 3-11 ATS at home for the last two seasons

**Uncle Harv** · 08-24-10, 03:50 PM

Its a simple equation... Collares + Binns + Woods = Big Cinci Road Win

**TPowell** · 08-26-10, 12:27 AM

I dont like taking Cincy this far away from home but I agree that Collaros (sp) will be just as good as Tony Pike. He is much more mobile, but not quite the pocket passer as Pike was. Without Ryan Matthews, I don't see how Fresno should be favored in this game. I like Cincy by more than a field goal

**rockchalk24** · 08-26-10, 12:30 AM

gl im on the same side

**aeshred** · 08-26-10, 12:39 AM

This game will be too close to call, got some gutsy cappers in here...

**Sunde91** · 08-27-10, 07:30 PM

Line has kept moving to FSU -2.5 with juice as high as -120, down from UC -2 a couple weeks ago as get closer and closer to crunch time

**NBAwinner** · 08-27-10, 11:28 PM

I like Fresno a lot as well

**escoot** · 08-28-10, 03:13 AM

Collaros put up big numbers against a bunch of crappy teams last year. Cincinnati completely overachieved with Brian Kelly, who is one of the best coaches in college football. That team you saw last year will probably be the best Cincy ever is for A LONG TIME...

Now comes in Butch who has just been riding Kelly's coat tails from job to job. In Butch's first year at CMU he lost to an FCS team by 30 points...Cincy is switching defenses this year, does not have a senior on that defense, and has to travel all the way to Fresno to play a team with an offense prime to put up points.

**escoot** · 08-28-10, 03:15 AM

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**escoot** · 08-28-10, 03:16 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Without Ryan Matthews, I don't see how Fresno should be favored in this game. I like Cincy by more than a field goal

The correlation of a teams success year to year has very little to do with its RBs. While Matthews was an excellent RB, Fresno still has 4 of its 5 OL returning, and 9/10 guys in their rotation from last season.

**Killer_Demo** · 08-28-10, 04:39 AM

on fresno state

**Sunde91** · 08-28-10, 05:57 PM

Fresno now -3

Books know what's up and do not feel safe leaving the spread too low with the public slightly favoring Fresno. The spread has shifted nearly 5 points (was UC -2) in a desperate move to even action on UC.

-1 could be a steal if this goes -3.5 or beyond.

to anyone who got decent +ev on Fresno ML couple weeks ago.

Gotta feel that Fresno is the right side here

**dherd** · 08-28-10, 06:56 PM

the guy they brought in from central mich isnt bad - good offensive guy. bryan left talent there and in positions, doubt he will change the playbook much - ran basically same stuff at cent mich as cincy ran.

**Footballtime** · 08-28-10, 07:08 PM

lots of points in this one fellas, **** the side im hammering the total 1st half and FG, GL: FBT

**JMUplayer** · 08-30-10, 03:24 PM

As much as i think Cinn is going to be very good the biggest swing for me was having 4 of 5 OL back for Fresno....
That's HUGE in college football especially since they were decent last year.

**Uncle Harv** · 08-30-10, 05:39 PM

The books opened the right correctly at Cinci -2. Its all the people that are dumping money on Fresno swinging the line so dramatically. Im certainly not a pro, and Im not referring to anyone on this forum, but the majority of the public are usually wrong. Hell, pros only hit 65%.

In the last 4 yrs, Fresno has played many out of conference top level competion from BCS conferences. That is too their credit. What isnt however is the fact that they havent won 1 of those games in that span. Plus, they get shlacked by Boise St every year. They play well, but not well enough. Hill just wants to get his squad ready for WAC play. Cinci will challenge for another Big East title...and they win in Fresno, but prob not by more than 7.

**Sunde91** · 08-30-10, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by Uncle Harv

The books opened the right correctly at Cinci -2. Its all the people that are dumping money on Fresno swinging the line so dramatically. Im certainly not a pro, and Im not referring to anyone on this forum, but the majority of the public are usually wrong. Hell, pros only hit 65%.

In the last 4 yrs, Fresno has played many out of conference top level competion from BCS conferences. That is too their credit. What isnt however is the fact that they havent won 1 of those games in that span. Plus, they get shlacked by Boise St every year. They play well, but not well enough. Hill just wants to get his squad ready for WAC play. Cinci will challenge for another Big East title...and they win in Fresno, but prob not by more than 7.

Public money is on many games where the line hasn't swung, or has swung the other direction (RLM). To me, the straight line movement tells me the books aren't comfortable keeping the spread too low (for fear of getting buried), so they need to raise it in order to entice action on the other side to even it.

It's a worse sign, imo, if there isn't straight line movement or if there's RLM, as 1) sharps are pounding the other side Or 2) books are confident in keeping the line where it is. And getting -1 on a -3 + closer is a deal.

Also, Fresno isn't too big of a public side.

**escoot** · 08-30-10, 06:23 PM

If anyone noticed that line dramatically moved last week...public square money probably didn't do that

**NBAwinner** · 08-30-10, 09:42 PM

just put some money on the over

**Darkside Magick** · 08-30-10, 11:44 PM

cincy win outright!! take cincy ml +130

**dfresh** · 08-30-10, 11:45 PM

I am very familiar with Fresno St..I have a huge writeup on the game in my thread. It will answer some questions.

**chase1** · 08-30-10, 11:47 PM

I like Fresno St too but very light

**RPP** · 08-31-10, 11:10 AM

Just locked in Cincy ML at +130. Good luck everyone!

**Sunde91** · 09-04-10, 06:21 PM

(misclicked on the grade and can't remove)

**BatemanPatrickl** · 09-04-10, 10:02 PM

Great call Sundae

**BatemanPatrickl** · 09-04-10, 10:07 PM

What a call by Sundae!