SoonerBS 2010 Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

USC

OK, so we all know about the circus clown HC, Lane Kiffin, who loves media and national attention, and how he left Tennessee after a "one and done" year, and how Carroll knew a good time to leave since the NCAA slapped USC with a 2 year injunction that is bound to cripple one of the major powerhouses in college football. Now that that is all done, where do we go from here? Fact is, we are still going to have USC games to gamble on and we need to figure out which ones will be the best ones. As always, USC will be a team to reckon with, and if they would have been allowed by the NCAA this year, they would be the favorite to win the PAC 10. USC always has a treasury of some of the best recruits in the nation. So, even though they bring back only 10 starters from last season, they still have 54 lettermen and can reload at any position. It will help this season, and I think give them a BETTER season than what they had last year, that they now have a veteran QB. So, offensively they will be better and defensively they will be more experienced after all the talent that got experience last year. IF, and this is a big IF, but IF they do not lose anymore key players before the season due to the NCAA penalties, I think USC is going to be very good this year. The next several years will be a different story, however. For this year, I think the attitude of Kiffin and all his players is going to be an "us against the world" mentality. I think they will try to bitch-slap every team they play to prove that they are still a force to be reckoned with.

September 2nd at Hawaii -- I am VERY anxious to see a line on this game. I am thinking USC will be favored by -24 give a point or two. I would play this all the way up to -35. Yes. Seriously. Guys, I know Hawaii will be fired up to play this game and having the big boys come to town to play, but they HAVE NO PLAYERS THAT CAN STAND UP TO USC AT ALL!!! I don't care how many funky offensive sets Hawaii tries to run at USC, USC has the speed to shut every one of them down and totally dominate Hawaii. So, we have to ask ourselves this "?": How many points does USC want to score? This will be the coming out game from all the shit USC has had to endure over the offseason. I am sure they will come down well in advance of this game and practice and get acclimated to their surroundings. The NCAA has already given them permission to do so. I have a very strong feeling that both Kiffin and his players will want to try and score as many points as they can against Hawaii to make a statement against the NCAA sanctions and to let the rest of the nation know that they will not back down and cower. I WILL definitely be on USC here no matter what the score point spread.

September 11th vs. Virginia -- Poor Virginia. Virginia has a first year HC, a new QB, and very little experience coming back from already poor team. They are not going to know what hit them in USC's season home opener. Again, lay the points.

October 2nd vs. Washington -- 9-4 is a good season for most any team in college football, but it isn't for USC. They struggled last year and their struggles started with this game after coming off a big win against Ohio State on the road. Washington beat USC by 3 points at Seattle and the mighty Trojans started their downward spiral from there. It is payback time in Los Angeles and it starts with them knocking down what could be the most prolific offense in the PAC 10 this year.

Fadable Game: Oregon State . . . . again. (USC has to come off a big road game against Arizona the week before and has a home game with Notre Dame on deck. OSU has always proven to be tough on the Trojans in Corvalis and it looks like this another good spot to catch them in this year.)

[SoonerBS]

Oregon

It is a bit difficult to read how Oregon will be overall this season. Yes, they will be good and have a winning season because they have experience and talent both. But, it has now been brought into question just how far they will go because of Masoli getting kicked off the team. Oregon fans can console themselves all they want about how they will be better off without the trouble maker, and maybe that will be true, but there was no denying his ability and what he what he meant to this team's success. It COULD be that it will all be forgotten after a few games if one of the two QBs contending for the job steps up and does superb. But, my gut feeling says they will take a bit of a drop at QB. Of course, the other question that comes up is, "will LaMichael James keep his nose clean long enough to finish the season?" Maybe he has learned his lesson, only time will tell, but Oregon cannot afford to lose him. The good news is that Oregon made small strides last year to showing a little better defense and it looks to continue this season with 8 returning starters. Right now, with their talent and experience, Oregon looks to be the team to win the PAC 10 title this season, but it will not come easy.

October 2nd vs. Stanford -- This is one of their losses from last season. Add to that though the reason why I like this spot -- Stanford has a road game at Notre Dame the week before and USC on deck. This is a bad spot all the way around for them.

Fadable Games: UCLA and Washington -- (Yes, they are both home games, but they come around some bad spots with some important games against USC and California on the road. I just don't think they will be able to avoid the "lookahead" or the "layover" factor in these games.)

[SoonerBS]

Arizona

Mike Stoops has kept his job and has built a strong enough tradition and team to sustain what he has. The Arizona Wildcats should now be expected to be perennial bowl participants. With this all said though, I don't agree with Phil Steele placing this team as the third best in the PAC 10 this season. Arizona has had two 8-5 season in a row primarily because of strong defense and this year they have to replace 7 starters. Offensively they have performed above standards for a change, but again, I think that has been primarily because of Sonny Dykes and he left to become the new head coach of Louisiana Tech. Not only that, but Mark Stoops, Mike's brother, left the DC position to go to Florida State and become the new DC for them. This is a tremendous loss of talent on the coaching staff in one year's time. Stoops has distributed the coordinators over a 4 headed monster and one has to wonder if it will be as unified and productive as what he has done the last two years. I am calling this team down a notch or two with the changes in staff and the losses on defense. I do not have any "play-on" spots that really stand out to me. I do think this team will have another winning season and go to a bowl game, but I think Stanford and Washington has a chance to finish above them this season as well as possibly Oregon State. This has been a team that has done well over the years of producing "Unders" for us, but I now throw them in the category of being an "Overs" producer for us in the right games.

[SoonerBS]

California

I really think California can surprise some people this year. With them going 8-5 SU and 5-7 ATS last year, I think there is going to be some opportunities to win some money off of them. They will fly under the radar a bit because of everyone's focus on teams like USC, Oregon, Washington and Stanford this year. I think the biggest moneymaker for us may be California. I thought last season that California underperformed on defense and that cost them some games. But, I think the new hiring of DC Pendergast and the experience on the defensive side of the ball is going to bring California back to some 2008 type numbers. Offensively, there are few weaknesses. Yes, Riley's performance could show a lot of improvement, and I think with him being a Senior this year, we will see improvement. Tedford has also said the QB job is open to competition, so this shouldn't make Riley get to lax at the job. Still, with California's run game (once again they will have 3 RBs that could start on just about any team in the country) and their experienced offensive line, they will be one of the most balanced offensive teams in the conference. I think this is the year to bet on California.

September 11th vs. Colorado -- This is going to be quite an opening test for Colorado. I look for Colorado to play an impressive game against their instate rival, Colorado State the opening week, and then they have to come out to the West Coast for this game. Colorado's defense allowed for over 4 ypc last season and they have a couple of less experienced linebackers this year. California will likely pound on Colorado the whole game until they pound out a cover.

November 13th vs. Oregon -- California has a very important final 3 game home stand which starts right here with Oregon. Oregon will be coming off an important game with Washington the week before this one, while California plays Washington State. I would likely fade California against Washington state, but I would play on them here in this game. Oregon embarrassed California last year and it is time for California to return the favor. This game is already set at California being a home doggie +2. I think they win this one SU if everyone is healthy.

Fadable Game: Washington State (WSU will likely be catching big numbers here and I can't believe that California is going to be interested in playing their best game whenever they have Oregon on deck.)

[SoonerBS]

UCLA

This just in -- UCLA has not arrived on the scene, and they will not do it this year, either. Where is the great mastermind combination of Neuheisel and Chow? It hasn't showed up yet, either, as the offense has sputtered to 17 ppg in 2008 and 22 ppg in 2009. If the Spring camp and Spring game is any indication as to this side of the ball getting any better, you can forget it. Neuheisel and Chow are experimenting with a "pistol" variation they are calling "revolver." The only thing it is likely to do is backfire on them. The offensive line is still not showing to be a strength for this team. Until they step up and show that they can be a strength, this offense is going to continue to struggle. The good news for UCLA in the past is that there defense has been very good. That may not be the case this year though as their studs from the last two seasons have either graduated or gone on to the NFL. Things do not look good for UCLA this season. I can't play on them from what I see on paper. I don't think they will have a winning season this year, either. They are favored going into their game opener against K-State by -3, but it would not surprise me to see the Wildcats pull the upset in this game. The only problem is that there are too many "?" marks on both of those teams to lay any money on either of them. I will be fading them against texas for sure and I will likely find some other games to play against them, but I cannot play on them.

[SoonerBS]

Arizona State

After researching Arizona State this year, I had a Deja Vu experience. I was thinking to myself, "didn't I see pretty much the same team last year?" The reason I felt that way was because I was looking at a team that was going to be weak offensively, but strong defensively. In fact, here is what I wrote in last year's write-up on ASU: "Before we get into play-on games, let me just note that I will be watching this team for opportunities to play the UNDER on the TOTALS. With what looks like a struggling offense and a stout defense, the UNDER could be golden!" I didn't listen to my own advice though. I don't know if I ever played an UNDER on ASU. Know what their record was on Overs/Unders? 2-9. I would have cashed a bundle had I listened to my own advice. This year's defense may not be AS strong as last, but let's face it, Craig Bray the DC for ASU has been putting together a clinic every season on how to play defense in the PAC 10. Even though they only return 5 on the defensive side of the ball, I have no reason to believe that the defense will not perform like it has the past several years. In fact, if the defense had any help at all on the offensive side of the ball, it would be one of the best teams in the league. Unfortunately, again this season, it will not. Erikson fired his OC last season and has hired on a new OC, Noel Mazzone, to implement the spread offense. Just like any school who starts a new offensive scheme, there is going to be a learning period of at least 2 years. The offense brings back only 4 starters from last year and they will all have to learn a new scheme. My advice? Look to play the UNDERS again.

October 2nd at Oregon State -- Another road play here, but I believe one that is warranted. This spot catches OSU between two road games: one in which they play Boise State the week before and Arizona the following week. I think OSU could be suffering a serious layover after the Boise Game and may not give ASU a full effort here. You know that ASU will likely be catching points in this spot, so it should be a solid dog play.

November 26th vs. UCLA -- This is the best spot for ASU to pull an all out SU win and cover. Again, I think UCLA will be way down this year and will not be as successful as last season. ASU gets to take advantage of them here as they look ahead to the season ending rivalry against USC.

Fadable Game: Wisconsin.

[SoonerBS]

Washington State

This may be another team we need to keep an eye on this season. Since Wulff took over 2 years ago, this team has been nothing but promises about the future. Every year Wulff says he is "building for the future and that they are not at the level they need to be yet." After seasons where they have a total of 3-22, this better be the year they show some major improvement or Wulff may be looking for a PR job with some up and coming Democratic candidates where democrats would buy his bullshit at anytime. There ARE some positives that seem to point to a brighter future though. This is still a fairly young ball team and Wulff has been redshirting talent the two years he has been there. The sophomore QB, Tuel, didn't do too poorly last season as a true frosh and you have to expect that he will only get better. WSU brings back 15 starters off last year's team and has many more experienced players who were injured last season and will be back. The defense obviously has to get better and should with an influx of new talent and having some healthy players back. Overall, this team is ripe to improve. One should not look at WSU as just another sorry team this season, but as a possible moneymaker.

September 4th at Oklahoma State -- Here's two programs going in opposite directions. Washington State is going up (although very gradually) and Oklahoma State is going down. Oklahoma State lost tons of talent off last year's team and will be in a true rebuilding year. This being the first game of the season, I still expect Washington State to be catching a lot of points and they will be the more veteran team in this matchup. I think this is a good dog play on opening weekend.

October 2nd at UCLA -- Bad spot for UCLA as they will be coming off what will likely be a good butt-whipping at Texas, and they have a road game against California on deck. Again, WSU catches several points in this spot and should be a solid dog play.

November 6th vs. California -- WSU catches California at home between a road game at Oregon State the week before, and a lookahead spot against Oregon the next week.

[THE PROFIT]

I totally agree with you on VaTech/Boise. Some of the experts even have Boise playing for a NC saying they will be one of the possibly 2 only undefeated teams, but I think VT gets them in the first game & ends that BS before it gets started.

[SoonerBS]

Boise State

I've said this in other posts, but Boise is no longer the "David" of college football. They have won too many games and been to too many BCS bowls now. Instead of being the "underdogs" walking around the college scene and looking for the bullseyes on the backs of the big boys, they are now a team that walks around with a bullseye on their backs. While they are probably safe in the WAC conference, it is whenever they step out of that arena to play the BCS schools that they will no longer be taken lightly. This is a 14-0 team that brings back virtually everyone from last season. What more can you say about coaching and personnel on this ball club? IF Boise beats Virginia Tech in the opener (and, I don't think they will,) and if they get by Oregon State at home, it is going to be very difficult for poll voters to keep them out of the #1 or #2 spot all season. They stand as good a chance as they have ever had to actually appear in a National Championship game this season. But, to do so, they have to live the roll of Goliath now and hope they can rewrite the story of "David and Goliath."

October 9th vs. Toledo -- Toledo is out of their element here and there should be no distractions for Boise. Toledo will be an improved team this season, but that is primarily in the MAC conference. To load up and go all the way to Idaho to play on a blue turf against one of the best teams in the nation is just way above their capabilities. Boise runs away with this one.

November 6th vs. Hawaii -- Back in the days of June Jones, Hawaii could contend with Boise at home, but rarely ever on the Smurf Turf. Now that Jones is gone, Hawaii is just a shell of itself. This will be a romp.

Fadable Games: Virginia Tech and Nevada (I think V Tech will beat Boise straight up. I think it is too much to ask a Boise team to go all the way across the country to play against a BCS school that is picked to win its conference and is being put in the place of an underdog in this game. V Tech has some pride and they will take this game personal. It's a different role for Boise and I don't think they have the experience to handle it. IF Boise makes it through the V Tech game, Oregon State game and Fresno Game unscathed, Nevada will be the last line of defense. Nevada on the road is not a great bet, but at home it is a different story. This will not be a typical WAC pushover game for Boise.)

Intriguing Game: IF Boise loses the game against Virginia Tech, how do they react? They will have a bye week to contemplate how they handle the rest of the season. The game with Wyoming is intriguing. If they decide to come out with determination and win the rest of their games and allow fate to take its course, then Wyoming stands in the way of a good butt-whooping. Wyoming will have a big game against Texas in Austin the week before and will likely not have enough gas left in the tank to tussle with Boise.

[SoonerBS]

I totally agree with you on VaTech/Boise. Some of the experts even have Boise playing for a NC saying they will be one of the possibly 2 only undefeated teams, but I think VT gets them in the first game & ends that BS before it gets started.

I do, too. However, if they do get by V Tech, they stand to have a good argument towards getting into the NC game if they win them all and go undefeated. I'm not saying they belong there, but they will have a good argument after beating both V Tech and Oregon State.

[SoonerBS]

Ball State

After a hugely successful 2008 season, last year had to be very frustrating for Ball State. Ball State went 2-10, but was actually in most of the games they played. 19 starters of last year's team are returning and should post a better W/L record this season. A second year in the new offensive and defensive schemes should help to close the gap on those close losses from last season. Steele has them listed on his Most Improved Team list and I agree.

October 9th vs. Western Michigan -- Ball St will finally get a home game after playing three straight road games in a row. Western Michigan will have Notre Dame on deck and I think there will be a big likelihood of a "lookahead" spot here. Last year Ball State lost this matchup by only 5 points at WMU. If Ball State wants to make an impact on the MAC West side of the division, then this is the game to win.

[SoonerBS]

Toledo

Toledo is a team that is difficult for me to figure out. They are getting kudos from preseason prognosticators like Phil Steele and others as being an improved football team this season and having one of the top offenses. I understand the offensive part as they increased their point production last year by 7 points. But, Tim Beckman is a defensive guy and yet his team got worse defensively last year by 6 points. They have ONLY 12 starters returning from last season, they do not have a clear cut starter at QB, they have new players at the skills positions, and they have tried to fill in the holes on their defense by recruiting JUCO players. How can anyone know how solid this team is going to be this year? Most of the starters have some playing experience, so maybe that will be enough. But, for the most part, this team will have to be a "wait and see" proposition for me.

October 2nd vs. Wyoming -- This is a first meeting for these two ball clubs and it is a sandwich spot for Wyoming. They will be coming off a home game against Air Force the week before and they have a big game at TCU the next week. This is a long road trip to be playing in between these games.

November 17th vs. Bowling Green -- Toledo has the privilege of having a bye-week the week before this game, while Bowling Green plays against Miami, OH and then has Western Michigan on deck. Toledo should have way too much fire power for Bowling Green to handle this season.

[SoonerBS]

Central Michigan

CMU has had a great 4 year run. Every year they have been considered contenders in the MAC conference and they have also gained the respect of their BCS opponents as well. But, all good things must come to an end and it is looking that this year will be the end of the run for CMU. Even though they should still have the remnants of those glory teams gone by, the main cogs in the wheel are gone. There will be no more Dan LeFevour at QB, no Brian Kelly or Butch Jones running the steering wheel as HC and 5 of their 6 top defensive players from last season are gone. This is a true rebuilding year and you can bet that the teams that got beat up on during the 4 year reign will want to extract some revenge. Because of this fact, I will pass on CMU.

[SoonerBS]

Eastern Michigan

The percentages show us that betting on Eastern Michigan is most likely to lose you money than win it. Let's not flirt with disaster and try to pick winning spots with a team that knows nothing about winning. I'll pass.

[ojs69]

good stuff