Week 6 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

nep1293 · 09-30-07, 11:34 AM

Chart Survivor

These are the teams that have been the most and least "Chart-Friendly". The records are what you would have done if you bet each teams game according to The Chart. It is not the teams record in those games.

The Studs-If you bet each of these teams games according to The Chart, you would have won every game.

5-0
Washington St
LSU
Florida Atlantic

4-0
Clemson
NC St
North Carolina
Texas A&M
Kent St
New Mexico
USC
North Texas
Idaho

3-0
Kansas
Rice

THE DUDS- If you bet each of these teams games according to the chart, you would have lost every game

0-5
Ball St

0-4
Indiana
Wyoming

0-3
Rutgers
Kansas St
Southern Mississippi
Boise St
Louisiana Tech

nep1293 · 09-30-07, 11:46 AM

2007 Trends

This is how I started with The Chart. A few weeks into last years games I went through all the games and looked into where the W's and L's were coming from. The numbers held up last year, and past years show that the trends hold up throughout the year.

This is basically a dumbed down version of The Chart. Based on this year results only, The Chart would recommend betting the following games:

HOME DOGS

SPREAD - RECORD
3 -> 4.5 - (13-3)
7.5 - (3-0)
20+ - (9-4)

ROAD DOGS

1-> 2.5 - (5-2)
3.5-> 4.5 - (8-3-1)
7 - (6-2)
26+ - (16-8-1)

HOME FAVORITES

3 - (3-1)
5 -> 6.5 - (10-4)
8 -> 25 - (55-37)

ROAD FAVORITES

5 -> 6.5 - (8-2)
13 -> 17.5 - (10-3)

nep1293 · 09-30-07, 12:03 PM

Line Movement

I've noticed that so far, line movement helps The Chart.

There has been 1 game where line movement has turned a Win into a Loss.
--New Mexico vs BYU

There has been 1 game where line movement turned a Loss into a Push
--New Mexico St vs UTEP

There have been 2 games where line movement has turned Losses into Wins
--Minnesota vs Purdue
--Minnesota vs Ohio St

There have been 2 games where line movement has turned a Push into a Win.
--Troy vs Florida
--Memphis vs Arkansas St

Based on Opening Lines, The Chart has a record of 69-52-2 (57.02%).

My actual record for betting The Chart has been 72-50-1 (59.01%).

I usually don't start grabbing any lines until Wednesday at the earliest. 75% of my bets are placed Saturday Morning (or the day of the game). That extra 2% is very nice.

nep1293 · 09-30-07, 12:10 PM

It also seems to me that there have been a lot more Losses that could have been Wins compared to the amount of Wins that could have been Losses. If this is accurate, that should lead to a few more Wins over the rest of the year as the "Bad Luck" factor seems to even itself out, at least for me.

That is pretty much all I have for the September recap. I'll have the Week 6 picks up tonight.

pags11 · 09-30-07, 04:36 PM

nep,

keep up the good work my friend...

nep1293 · 09-30-07, 09:08 PM

Week 6 Picks

Here are the picks for week 6. Fresh out of the oven. Kind of a light week. "only" 20 recommended games.

Marshall @ Memphis (-3) ..... 53.90%
Rice @ Southern Mississippi (-21) ..... 56.37%
Kentucky (+3.5) @ South Carolina ..... 61.63%
Utah @ Louisville (-14.5) .....56.52%
Northern Illinois @ Temple (+3.5) ..... 52.71%
West Virginia (-26.5) @ Syracuse ..... 56.54%
Cincinnati @ Rutgers (-3) ..... 53.90%
Wisconsin @ Illinois (-3) ..... 53.90%
Minnesota @ Indiana (-12.5) ..... 51.26%
Northwestern @ Michigan St (-14.5) ..... 56.52%
Miami, FL (-8.5) @ North Carolina ..... 50.93%
Wake Forest @ Duke (+7.5) ..... 58.52%
Central Michigan @ Ball St (-12.5) ..... 51.26%
Vanderbilt (+8.5) @ Auburn ..... 50.07%
Bowling Green @ Boston College (-19.5) ..... 51.29%
Ohio @ Buffalo (+5.5) ..... 51.56%
Tulane @ Army (-6.5) ..... 58.79%
Eastern Michigan (+31.5) @ Michigan ..... 59.11%
TCU (+2) @ Wyoming ..... 51.90%
Oklahoma St @ Texas A&M (-5.5) ..... 54.68%
UAB (+16) @ Mississippi St ..... 51.05%
Miami, OH (+9.5) @ Kent St ..... 51.46%
Kansas @ Kansas St (-3) ..... 53.90%
Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi (-12.5) ..... 51.26%
Colorado (-9.5) @ Baylor ..... 54.09%
Virginia Tech (+4.5) @ Clemson ..... 58.91%
Nebraska @ Missouri (-6.5) ..... 58.79%
Iowa (+7) @ Penn St ..... 51.00%
NC St (+17.5) @ Florida St ..... 52.08%
Georgia (+2) @ Tennessee ..... 51.90%
Fresno St (+2.5) @ Nevada ..... 51.90%
Houston (+11.5) @ Alabama ..... 51.21%
Idaho @ San Jose St (-6.5) ..... 58.79%
San Diego St @ Colorado St (-13) ..... 55.09%
Arizona @ Oregon St (-5.5) ..... 54.68%
Stanford @ USC (-37.5) ..... 61.50%
Akron (+10) @ Western Michigan ..... 52.01%
Georgia Tech (-2.5) @ Maryland ..... 50.55%
Iowa St @ Texas Tech (-25) ..... 55.08%
UCF @ East Carolina (+3) ..... 58.52%
Florida (+8) @ LSU ..... 50.07%
Ohio St (-6) @ Purdue ..... 60.45%
Notre Dame @ UCLA (-21) ..... 56.37%
UNLV @ Air Force (-6) ..... 58.79%
Tulsa @ UTEP (+3.5) ..... 52.71%
Arizona St (-9) @ Washington St ..... 54.09%
Utah St @ Hawaii (-38) ..... 60.63%
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic (+15.5) ..... 52.56%
Arkansas St @ Lousiana-Monroe (+3) ..... 58.52%
North Texas (+7) @ Louisiana-Lafayette .....51.00%
Troy @ Florida International (+19) ..... 50.99%
Virginia @ MTSU (+10.5) ..... 54.31%
New Mexico St @ Boise St (-22.5) ..... 57.88%

BuddyBear · 09-30-07, 10:32 PM

I still don't understand the theory behind all this.....can you explain how it works. To me, it seems, that success or failure with a selection is mostly a result of coincidence. I guess if it is working it is working but still not seeing why it is working....

nep1293 · 10-01-07, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

I still don't understand the theory behind all this.....can you explain how it works. To me, it seems, that success or failure with a selection is mostly a result of coincidence. I guess if it is working it is working but still not seeing why it is working....

I can't really explain why it works. I've just accepted that it does seem to work for whatever reason.

My theory behind the system is that oddsmakers set a line for a reason. I think they have certain "magic numbers" that are set so people bet them and lose. How many times have you seen a line and been shocked how high or low it is only to see the opposite side end up winning? I've been burnt enough by that in the past that I'm training by brain to have no opinion on these games and to just bet the numbers. I agree that it would seem to be coincidence, but after 1000's of games I believe that there is something there.

You really have to be a fan of trends to play the system

marke4 · 10-01-07, 01:31 PM

Nep, I don't see Oklahoma V Texas on the chart. I was surprised to see Texas +11 at home, even though Texas is way overrated. I like texas +11 but I like the charts knowledge more.

seaborneq · 10-01-07, 06:46 PM

Nep, where are the percentages coming from. Is it what the general public is playing? Quick synopsis please.

swifty · 10-01-07, 07:06 PM

Great work on all the stuff you did on here. some of your picks are good to play.

jon13009 · 10-01-07, 07:22 PM

Lines

Originally posted by nep1293

I can't really explain why it works. I've just accepted that it does seem to work for whatever reason.

My theory behind the system is that oddsmakers set a line for a reason. I think they have certain "magic numbers" that are set so people bet them and lose. How many times have you seen a line and been shocked how high or low it is only to see the opposite side end up winning? I've been burnt enough by that in the past that I'm training by brain to have no opinion on these games and to just bet the numbers. I agree that it would seem to be coincidence, but after 1000's of games I believe that there is something there.

You really have to be a fan of trends to play the system

I an not sure if this can help, but here is some info on how the lines are set:

http://www.winnersedgeonline.com/point-spread-made.html

FYI.

nep1293 · 10-01-07, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by marke4

Nep, I don't see Oklahoma V Texas on the chart. I was surprised to see Texas +11 at home, even though Texas is way overrated. I like texas +11 but I like the charts knowledge more.

This is a neutral site game. So there is no data.

Originally posted by seaborneq

Nep, where are the percentages coming from. Is it what the general public is playing? Quick synopsis please.

The percentages are the expected winnings percentage for the game. They are made by using past games with the same point spreads. It is my little formula. 55% and above are the games that are targeted.

Originally posted by swifty

Great work on all the stuff you did on here. some of your picks are good to play.

Thanks swifty, I appreciate it

Originally posted by jon13009

I an not sure if this can help, but here is some info on how the lines are set:

http://www.winnersedgeonline.com/point-spread-made.html

FYI.

That was a good read.

My main point is that if there are 3 games, all of them have the home team favored by 5. I feel that those 3 games are identical to the linesmaker. So why should I like Team A -5 and Team B +5 and Team C +5? I think if there is strong historical data favoring Team A -5, then just play that across the board and pick up a profit by going 2-1.

I think that by mixing and matching picks by the spread and trying to go 10-0, you are more likely to have a losing record. You won't go 10-0 too many times using this system, but you won't go 0-10 either. I believe that over the course of the year the system will at worst break even. That beats me playing my own picks where at worst I could lose a lot of money.

austintx05 · 10-01-07, 09:50 PM

I think that by mixing and matching picks by the spread and trying to go 10-0, you are more likely to have a losing record. You won't go 10-0 too many times using this system, but you won't go 0-10 either. I believe that over the course of the year the system will at worst break even. That beats me playing my own picks where at worst I could lose a lot of money.

what is the worst you have seen it do?

nep1293 · 10-01-07, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by austintx05

what is the worst you have seen it do?

I only have the last 5 years of data. I didn't use the chart those years but I went back and got all of the lines and plugged the numbers in to see how I would have done .

The worst year was in 2003. The final record was 174-139 (55.59%)

So just based on the numbers, I am being humble when I say the worst case is breaking even. I just don't want to go as far as to "guarantee" a profit. That would be a load of crap. But honestly, I do feel a profit is close to 100%. I wouldn't be using the system otherwise

austintx05 · 10-01-07, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by nep1293

I only have the last 5 years of data. I didn't use the chart those years but I went back and got all of the lines and plugged the numbers in to see how I would have done .

The worst year was in 2003. The final record was 174-139 (55.59%)

So just based on the numbers, I am being humble when I say the worst case is breaking even. I just don't want to go as far as to "guarantee" a profit. That would be a load of crap. But honestly, I do feel a profit is close to 100%. I wouldn't be using the system otherwise

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 07:56 AM

I made a few adjustments to The Chart after looking at the opening lines a little closer.

The major changes were LSU being taken away from the official picks and Duke being added to them. I have a feeling that Duke line will drop below 7, similar to New Mexico last week. I am grabbing Duke now.

Minor changes were made to the % of Texas Tech, UCLA, and Boston College

Thanks to austintx05 for pointing out the LSU/Florida opening line!

EJandV · 10-02-07, 08:05 AM

I see you have VATech highlighted as a go . They have cost me thus far in 07 sure enough . They have been a fat lemon .
I even got them on the late line -21.5 and missed them on parlays when they won by 21 , line opened at 20.5 .
They now wake up just because I will leave them alone , crock.

Va Tech is +5.5 now in case you didnt know .

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 08:31 AM

Originally posted by EJandV

I see you have VATech highlighted as a go . They have cost me thus far in 07 sure enough . They have been a fat lemon .
I even got them on the late line -21.5 and missed them on parlays when they won by 21 , line opened at 20.5 .
They now wake up just because I will leave them alone , crock.

Va Tech is +5.5 now in case you didnt know .

Road +4/+4.5 has been a consistant winner in the system. Should be 3-0 this year but Memphis had the collapse last week to only get the push. With that being said, We are due for a loser in that group. I'm honestly not really liking the Va Tech play, but I gotta play it, whenever I don't follow the numbers I seem to get burned.

Tunes · 10-02-07, 09:07 AM

So basically it's just line-based, not team-based. If a line is X, and your chart based on previous years says that that line indicates a bet on the favorite should be made, that's the play. If a team is a home fave of 3 to 4.5, they're a play.

Is that correct?

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by Tunes

So basically it's just line-based, not team-based. If a line is X, and your chart based on previous years says that that line indicates a bet on the favorite should be made, that's the play. If a team is a home fave of 3 to 4.5, they're a play.

Is that correct?

Yeah, Everything is based on lines. it is just Team A vs Team B, the actual teams are irrelevant. Technically you could just give me the opening lines and cover the team names and I would pick the games like that.

The Home Team 3-4.5 is incorrect though. Road Dogs of 3.5, 4, and 4.5 have been very solid plays over the years.

Tunes · 10-02-07, 09:14 AM

My bad, sorry for confusing it. But I get it now.....and the fact that it works is even more interesting. How many years of data have you used?

And do you have a Bowl chart based on lines (since there are no home teams)?

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Tunes

My bad, sorry for confusing it. But I get it now.....and the fact that it works is even more interesting. How many years of data have you used?

And do you have a Bowl chart based on lines (since there are no home teams)?

This is the 6th year of data. I'm actually thinking of using a 5 year window for the games. I'll probably take a look at that after the season. I feel that games that happened back in 2002 aren't really capturing the current state of football. That is why I added a weighted part to my formula. Currently a Win in 2002 is worth 1.2 points, and a win in 2007 is worth 2.2 points.

I do have a Bowl Chart, but it doesn't look as reliable as normal home/away games. If you would have taken every underdog in the bowl games / neutral site championship games, you would have won about 55% of the games. I'll look into those more when we get to bowl season.

Tunes · 10-02-07, 10:06 AM

Cool.....great work, and thanks.

namztruk · 10-02-07, 10:37 AM

ok, i was following you right up until i noticed that USC and hawaii are recommended plays for the week. is there an upper bound for the 'road dog' spread that you haven't listed here?

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by namztruk

ok, i was following you right up until i noticed that USC and hawaii are recommended plays for the week. is there an upper bound for the 'road dog' spread that you haven't listed here?

USC and Hawaii are recommended based on 5+ years of history. Just based on this year alone they would not be recommended.

strictlywinners · 10-02-07, 02:40 PM

nep i absolutely love this thread. I would like to know the formula that you are using for how you come up with the percentages.

swifty · 10-02-07, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

nep i absolutely love this thread. I would like to know the formula that you are using for how you come up with the percentages.

same here would like to work on something new. only for college right? or you have both for pro's too..

swifty · 10-02-07, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by nep1293

This is the 6th year of data. I'm actually thinking of using a 5 year window for the games. I'll probably take a look at that after the season. I feel that games that happened back in 2002 aren't really capturing the current state of football. That is why I added a weighted part to my formula. Currently a Win in 2002 is worth 1.2 points, and a win in 2007 is worth 2.2 points.

I do have a Bowl Chart, but it doesn't look as reliable as normal home/away games. If you would have taken every underdog in the bowl games / neutral site championship games, you would have won about 55% of the games. I'll look into those more when we get to bowl season.

Bowl Chart You can send this one to me, like to see what you got. you have excel? That is what I use, but I don't have anything to start with. if you have it you can post it on here and I can look at it. would be great to see it.

Keep up the great job

Sclass600 · 10-02-07, 06:03 PM

I Love Oklahoma -11

swifty · 10-02-07, 06:10 PM

Troy @ Florida International (+19) ..... 50.99%

Troy will cover big time FL Inter can't score at all.

Troy 55 to 3

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

nep i absolutely love this thread. I would like to know the formula that you are using for how you come up with the percentages.

In its purest form it is nothing more than recording the results each week. If there were 10 games with a 7 Pt Road Favorite and they went 7-3, the % for the 11th game would be 70%. I do add in a little of my own touch. The weighted part makes 2007>2006>2005>2004>2003... > That is the greater than sign in case nobody understood.

For the Higher point spread games I will use neighboring lines. For a 33 point spread game, I use the results for 32 and 34 along with 33 to get a better number.

There isn't a true formula that I use for every game. Certain spreads fall into "power brackets" that seem to cover a lot. Like 13,14,15 point home favorites. I give them there own section and factor that in with the formula.

I have everything plugged into my spreadsheet now so all I have to do is update the Wins and Losses every week and the percents come out automatically.

Originally posted by swifty

Bowl Chart You can send this one to me, like to see what you got. you have excel? That is what I use, but I don't have anything to start with. if you have it you can post it on here and I can look at it. would be great to see it.

Keep up the great job

I have all my data on Microsoft Works Spreadsheet. I can just post the data for the bowl games here. Looking at the numbers a little closer, I think that playing the Money Lines on all underdogs would have made a real nice profit over the last 5 years.

I'll try to get some bowl game data up tomorrow morning

Originally posted by swifty

same here would like to work on something new. only for college right? or you have both for pro's too..

I have NFL. The picks are up in the NFL handicapping section. If you really want to learn the system, the NFL chart wll be easier to comprehend.

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 09:31 PM

If anybody is interested in the actual chart i use, send me a PM with your email address and I'll send over the spreadsheet. I will warn you that it is very confusing to look at, and I don't have that much time to explain the whole thing individually, but I can give out some quick information and you should be able to understand everything.

nep1293 · 10-07-07, 08:31 AM

10-9-1 so far on the week with Boise tonight. The push went down as a W for me so I went 11-9. Not bad after an 0-3 start to the weekday games.

Those heavy home favorites are in a downward spiral right now. They haven't come through the last 2 weeks. They will start to rebound. I don't think anyone saw that Stanford upset happening though, what a wacky year so far.

I will add my bowl game data to the Week 7 picks.

I'll try to have them up tonight but the Boise game will delay it a bit. Hopefully will have a good day in NFL again.