Wal's College Football Week #9

[LINE-crush-ER]

[quote=mcbaseball10;2454138]Pike still might play this weekend for Cincinnati

hell last about 2 plays

NEW sensation is so much better as far as leading that team

He provides so much speed

I wouldnt look for pike to play they are favored

he would play if zack collaros< ?
cant get the job done
53 yards gained rushing

only 2 incomplete passes , covering the line here your better off with collaros

hell get you those first downs when you need em the most

BOL

[LINE-crush-ER]

[IM sorry guys
once again Im offthis game
see this is why I have that thread do not write in it
i do this constantly

Dominique lindsay from proabable to questionable as playing tonight

He is their running game

Best of luck with this one
Game time decison , I hope you all win

[LINE-crush-ER]

East Carolina

failed the injury report allowing to give the ok to my guys to bet this game

I am off of this game

Memphis also comes off a bye week

providing Dominque Lindsay East Carolina
Main offensive weapon (RB)

went from probable to questionable
\in an update posted just an hour ago

this is agame time decison
have to say

Without him I like the points here and a well rested team
although if he plays I like Lindsay
because Eastern Carolina has the advantage coming having an idle week then an easy cheesy game

so They indeed have had three weeks to prepare for memphis
UNDER (47.5)
is likely to be a confirmed pick from team Line crusher
post will be made 0 < 1 hour prior to kick off if you care to check for post

[wal66]

I've done the work on South Carolina vs Tennessee. Initially I ran my program and I got the South Carolina predicted line and then the lines came out and I saw great value there. My program predicted South Carolina should be favored and the line said they were a dog. I was a little surprised at the line because I thought South Carolina should be favored even with Tennessee being at home. So after looking into this game inside and out the numbers show a very different story here. Such a different story that I'm not sure how the program had it reversed in the first place. Tennessee has actually faced a much more difficult schedule. Even though they have a worse record they have performed better against tougher opponents. Both teams played Alabama and Tennesse almost pulled off a shocker where as South Carolina while never totally out of the game was never really a threat either. Both teams played Georgia and Tennessee beat them where as South Carolina lost. When you add up the power ranking difference between the two schools opponents and add in a touch for home field advantage and you have a line that is actually justifiable where it is. So I can't make a play on South Carolina but I won't make a play on Tennessee either. This game is a pass.

[shantystar]

so far navy seems good one

[LINE-crush-ER]

[COLOR=#000000! important]EAST CAROLINA OFFICIAL PICK NOW
well in about 45 minutes when I am able to call the guys and the bet in ..BOL please read further
I have found something I was looking for !

The above article states that
Memphis is o-6 against the spread when the yrush for 100-150 yards over the last two seasons .
Although, that statement became untrue quickly as they rushed for 160 yards last week
and did not cover but never-the less they are 0-6 ats the spread at less than 160 yards.
Dont respect any one enough to take as literal without checkingor yourself!
Great point in deed certainly the above statement has credibility, he just mis spoke .
(memphis)They are indeed not a winning team when not able to run the ball
On average East Carolina has had great succes stopping the run and shoud not be a factor in this game .

The Pirates will look to force miscues and are in the Top 20 in turnovers forced with 17.
They will need to be consistent on offense and keep tallying scores since Memphis red zone defense is laughable, with opposing teams have scored 25 of 27 trips
Coach Skip Holtz has his father Lou in town, along with Rece Davis and Mark May to do the game on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern


LOU HOLTZ is the KEY here guys and enough to make our play East Carolina
Now I know East Carolina Will undertstand that everyone int ehnation will be watching them after the entire team has been adressed By Lou Holtz prior to the Game
EAST CAROLINA has a break out game defensively they are much stronger'
sorry it took me so long to make a pick on a game you guys already had
[/COLOR]

[PingPong]

anyone else like oregon +3 or ML against usc?

[wal66]

Saturday October 31, 2009
3:30 PM
Kansas @ Texas Tech


Records:
Kansas 5-2 (2-4 ATS) 1-1 on the road
Texas Tech 5-3 (4-3 ATS) 4-1 at home

Trends:
Kansas is 12-6 ATS in last 16 road games
Over is 7-2 in Kansas’ last 9 conference games
Over is 10-4 in Texas Tech’s last 14 games overall

Head to Head:
Texas Tech is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS since 1996
Texas Tech won last year 63-21 at Kansas

Common Opponents:
N/A

Offense:
Kansas averages 35.1 ppg
Texas Tech averages 40 ppg

Defense:
Kansas allows an average of 22.7 ppg
Texas Tech allows an average of 23.8 ppg

My Take:
I passed over this game on my initial list even though it technically qualified by more than the minimum. I passed on it because of perception in my mind. In my head without even looking at the season Texas Tech was the better team. The power ranking numbers of the two teams are basically even. The power rankings of the teams they have played are identical. Based on namesake I would tend to think Texas Tech has played better opponents but that’s an opinion. I might be pushing the envelope here taking Kansas on the road against a team that owns them. I may have regrets after the game but I’ll trust the program till proven otherwise.

Program:
Texas Tech a pick. The line opened at 7.5 briefly and quickly moved to 7 and since has been bet down to 6.5 in some places with plenty of public numbers indicating they are all over Texas Tech. I’ll trust the line movement and the program here.

Play:


Kansas +7*

[wal66]

anyone else like oregon +3 or ML against usc?

Give it time Ping it's coming. I'll give you a hint. Quack! Quack ! Quack!

[HawaiiFan]

Ok St is at +8.5 now not +10. Would you still play it at that line?

[AdaBarber]

I went big on Cincy. That is the only game we have together. I booked it at -15! I might put 5 more units on it. I have Air Force-3.5, L. Monroe+16.5, and W. State+28. Good luck Wal. Cincy is my big play.

[AdaBarber]

Oh, and I got a pick on the Troy as well but my other filters said to take Louisiana Monroe with the points. I took the 16.5 but it started out at +17.

[AdaBarber]

Give up the points for Air Force up until -5 and Washington State covers barely. Good luck Wal!

[khaden]

Nice start to the week with ecu!!! Nice play

[wal66]

1-0 for the week.

Safe enough win but nothing that impressive since everyone else was on this side too.

[wal66]

Ok St is at +8.5 now not +10. Would you still play it at that line?

I don't want to misguide you here because of the fluctuation. Personally it would not have qualified as a play for me until it was at 10. It didn't meet my 3.5 minimum value. That's not to say that games that never meet this requirement or games that exceed this number don't win or lose it's just a preference I have.

I can't or won't tell you what to do with your money. I consider this a high risk play as is anyhow just one I was willing to take when it hit a number I liked.

I'm sorry to not be of any help here but when it comes to someone else's money I can only tell you what I am doing.

[wal66]

Ada...............Cincy is my most favorite game this week as well. I have to admit I am a little concerned that there hasn't been much line movement yet. Expect it will move some but really thought it would have happened more quickly. I have them as a 23.5 point favorite according to the program so I don't really concern myself with line movement as much as if this were a game I wasn't on. Well unless it moves against me hard that is.

[wal66]

Nice start to the week with ecu!!! Nice play

Appreciate it khaden. As it turns out it was a pretty easy win and choice to make because around 73% of everyone was on this side.

[HoulihansTX]

Good Pick with the Kansas play, since Tech's starter is out. With Potts at helm Tech's O looks stagnant, and Kansas is a live dog in a bounce back situation.

Gl with all your plays. Also will you be posting a recap? As your thread is hard to navigate with all the response you have generated.

[wal66]

Saturday October 31, 2009
8:00 PM
USC @ Oregon

Records:
USC 6-1 (2-5 ATS) 3-1 on the road
Oregon 6-1 (5-2 ATS) 4-0 at home

Trends:
USC is 5-14 ATS in last 19 games in October
Under is 21-9-1 in USC’s last 31 games overall

Head to Head:
Teams have split SU in last 10 meetings but USC holds a 6-4 ATS margin.USC won last year 44-10 at home.

Common Opponents:
USC 13 Washington 16…..Oregon 43 Washington 19
Washington St 6 USC 27……Washington St 6 Oregon 27
USC 20 California 3………California 3 Oregon 42

Offense:
USC averages 31.4 ppg
Oregon averages 34 ppg

Defense:
USC allows an average of 15.1 ppg
Oregon allows an average of 16.7 ppg

My Take:
I’ve been doing this for 2 years now like this. I have looked into comparison between hundreds of teams and I have never seen anything like this before. These two teams are almost identical replicas of one another. The numbers are almost exact across the board. From points scored to points allowed. When you average out the power ranking of the teams they have played you get another shocker. These two may have played two of the strongest schedules out there. Oregon has a slight edge in strength of schedule but that can be debated a dozen different ways. What does stand out and stands out very clearly are the scores of games when comparing the common opponents. Oregon beat the alike teams much more decidedly. Look back over the previous 10 years and again you have two identical results basically. Everything about this game suggests coin flip at best. I’ll take home field, strength of schedule (albeit slim) common opponents and my program which suggest Oregon outright for the play here. Numbers don’t always predict games but the numbers are what I have to follow here.

Program:
Oregon by 1.5 which gives us about 4.5 points of value.


Play:


Oregon +3* (if it moves to 4.5 I’ll probably be on ML as well)

[HoulihansTX]

Great pick with the Oregon ML. I am on it. Need to build up extra good karma.

Great Capping my friend.

[wal66]

The Houlihan's Re-cap

East Carolina -4*
Cincinnati -15.5*
Ohio U -7*
Oklahoma St +10*
Kansas +7*
Oregon +3*

Iowa St will probably become a play if players are healthy and in line-up.

[WesJeffery]

The Houlihan's Re-cap

East Carolina -4*
Cincinnati -15.5*
Ohio U -7*
Oklahoma St +10*
Kansas +7*
Oregon +3*

Iowa St will probably become a play if players are healthy and in line-up.

Cinci at -14.5, should we wait further maybe 14 or 13.5.

[wal66]

Wes........I never instruct anyone on when to hit a game or even to hit a game. I simply post what and why I am on. I can say that per my model I have Cincy as a 24 point favorite so I am comfortable as long as the line doesn't suddenly drop a couple of points. I'll stay comfortable but wonder why if this line doesn't see 17 by Staturday. I really thought it would be around 16 already but I'm no line wizard.

Personally I don't see how this line will ever see 13.5 but you should do yourself a favor and ask someone more experienced like LT or Justin or basically alot of other guys besides me.

Sorry to be of no help here but I'm not one of those guys that will tell you I am right when infact I'm just BS'ing.

[HawaiiFan]

I don't want to misguide you here because of the fluctuation. Personally it would not have qualified as a play for me until it was at 10. It didn't meet my 3.5 minimum value. That's not to say that games that never meet this requirement or games that exceed this number don't win or lose it's just a preference I have.

I can't or won't tell you what to do with your money. I consider this a high risk play as is anyhow just one I was willing to take when it hit a number I liked.

I'm sorry to not be of any help here but when it comes to someone else's money I can only tell you what I am doing.

Yeah, I didn't want to pull the trigger since the line was so far off of what you posted it at. No play for me, thanks!

[Cougar Bait]

wal 66 is ok most of this stuff is taken of a stat room from a program then he spends more time writing an article. I dont do that I spend so much more time

Classy

[wal66]

Coug's..........I don't understand most of what is being said I am just amazed at the process. He's like a mad scientist. I don't think it was an attempt at dissing the effort on my part, I think it was more of an attempt to explain his method. I'm guessing though because it's like I would actually need a translator. If it was a dis I'm still cool cause at least there is activity in the thread. I've never had this much before except last bowl season and that was only because it was one thread evry bowl game.

[wal66]

Scratch the post Coug's lol I just realized it wasn't something in this thread. By the way how did you quote from a different thread to this thread? Copy and paste? If not you gotta teach me that.


I will address two things mentioned in that thread.

#1 I got lucky.
This is technically true. Anytime I ever win a game I am lucky. However there was my program along with definate numbers to support the play. Also about 73% of everyone got just as lucky.

#2 How can I pick a game on Monday that isn't played until Saturday due to line movements throughout the week.
I can di this because the program gives me an estimated line. I have learned that I need an alowance in these estimated lines and choose to make it a 3.5 minimum variance against the settled opening line. What this affords me is line fluctuation throughout the week. If the line moves less than my variable I don't get concerned. Example: ECU's line was -4. my program suggested ECU would win by 10. If the game time line had been 9 I was still within my estimated line and if I have done the capping to support the program then I have no worries what the line adjusted too. Just like Cincinnati this weekend. the line is at 15 in most places but my program estimates the line should be 24 so I'm not gonna worry if the line climbs to 20 even. If the lines falls to 13 and we have 66%+ on Cincy I will be concerned about the why but not my play.

[LINE-crush-ER]

hey man
I definitely wanted to come over
My posts never make sicne and they certainly never will'
My mind is so fast about half what would of been said gets typed
BUt honestly Sorry
I refrenced you because you are the only one with near My record
Where your only losses last week I had them as plays
speaking of the Program
Intended that
I was actually saying people like me make those porgrams with hard work
'You put to much trust in that program
in a previous comment
I actually mentioned that exact statement
I beleive your program posts save me much time
And between The porgram and me examining those games
I could actually have less games to cover
explaining further
I found a lot of my games that had the greatest value were also listed in the porgram value
etc etc
But I said to you once before
your program and me disecting them I could actually tell you the one that werent good plays or at less value


to point out
you were a reference a fellow handicapper that I value
The other part
Writing skills
Yeah It seems to me I have more time to capp rather than
make legible posts

the lucky part still wasnt a hit '
a reference
i wrote yesterday
sorry guys I took so long for a team you already had

you made your selection tuesday
when lindsay still was in question
I found reasonable evidence that he was playing '
without him they would not have covered thats not lucky I guess
because the program said they would win with him and they had him
so in truth I was out of line in that part

to add one last time
the other wasnt about you in anyway
ill have to go to it i m sorry for the additional post
But an apology was in order
really only becasue i wrote not because I said it
It would of definitely been clear I had no reasonable threat towards you

[LINE-crush-ER]

Tuesday October 27, 2009
9:00 PM
East Carolina @ Memphis


Records:
East Carolina 4-3 (2-4 ATS) 1-3 ATS on the road
Memphis 2-5 (2-5 ATS) 2-2 ATS at home

Trends:
East Carolina is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Under is 9-2 in last 11 conference games.
Memphis is 2-6 ATS in last 8 games overall.

Head to Head:
East Carolina is 6-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in last 10 meetings.
East Carolina won last years game 30-10 at home.

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played Marshall. ECU beat Marshall 21-17 on the road. Memphis lost 27-16 at home.
Both teams have also played Central Florida. ECU won 19-14 at home. Memphis lost 32-14 on the road.

Offense:
East Carolina averages 25.1 ppg.
Memphis averages 21.4 ppg.

Defense:
East Carolina allows an average of 23.1 ppg.
Memphis allows an average of 29.9 ppg.

My Take:
I compared the power rankings of each team’s opponents played so far and it was basically even. Just a decimal point edge to East Carolina but nowhere enough to give an edge. So I looked at games of common opponents and this is where I see a decided advantage to East Carolina since they beat both opponents the two have in common and Memphis lost to both. Both teams have a few minor injuries that I could find but nothing that should really affect this week’s game.

Program:
East Carolina by 10 which gives me 6 points of value against current line.


Play:

East Carolina -4*

this is what i meant

Here as these stats ,

no way is their anything anywhere to have a road favorite here

I had been following your games

and Indeed it seems as though you are a program guy

I m not disappointed but surprised

Even your additonal commnets go on to add that minor injuries

Lindsay is hardly minor


so clearly to me

You took the program that you mention that you pay for

and then write stats

Basically It took you more time to write the article rather than to dig up the info

Thats not a hit it , I was just pissed with every ones comments

about the posts

Yeah I shouldnt clearly have additonal posts they are unneeded

I havent said anything , Iwasnt trying to call you out

but a program isnt hardly something I couldnt purchase something for my self

You seem to be creative and have an addtional incite

You mentioned you dropped teams last weeks that were our teams strongest picks

you spend much time

I Actually had a post to once prior wanting swap phone numbers

really I was trying to get a feel fro you if you knew your shit or a stat guy

its mentioned in here maybe you missed it

I know we seem out of place here with an actual team blah blah

of guys
It is definitely been full of drama

any way

I am sorry
I came off looking bad
no hard feelings I hope

[Cougar Bait]

Nice way to man up line-CRUSH-er. I respect Wal and wasn't sure if he knew about the post. I also knew that you guys had talked shop before on capping and CFB in general. I would want someone to do the same for me, and I felt I owed Wal that much. I think it shows class to admit when you are wrong. GL with this weeks games guys

[mcbaseball10]

Scratch the post Coug's lol I just realized it wasn't something in this thread. By the way how did you quote from a different thread to this thread? Copy and paste? If not you gotta teach me that.

Wal,
Click quote post in the post you want to carry from another thread. Then when you get to the thread you want to post in. Click "POST REPLY." Underneath the post it will Say "include quotes from other threads" (or something close to that) Click on that then choose "preview post" to make sure it is included then post it.

[Pin Fish]

Wal.........question you have a frosh QB at USC who appears to be getting better every game..did you factor that in your analysis

[wal66]

Pin Fish..................He is certainly getting better with every game no question about that. What I focused on primarily was how these teams have done against the same opponents. While they have won those games with the obvious exception of USC/Washington game, Oregon has beaten the same teams by larger margins. Given these performances and considering this is a home game for Oregon and add in the fact that USC hasn't dominated this series over the past ten meetings it was hard to pass on Oregon in this spot.

I am in no way trying to sway anyone else here. This is just the way I am going on this game. None of my plays are guarantees and only the Cincy game is one I feel as though I am 100% confident in. I think my Oklahoma St game is maybe the most at risk play but certainly any of them or even all of them could be losers.

[wal66]

McBaseball....thanks. I knew you could do that in the same thread just never even thought about it working from thread to thread. Simple things sometimes are difficult for even simpler minds I guess.