Pags' Plays 10/4

**sarms** · 10-03-09, 10:19 PM

NOBODY SCORES ON THE SMU DEFENSE WHEN THEY CLAMP DOWN.

**Skanless1** · 10-03-09, 10:26 PM

lookin' good pags, lookin' good.. turning this sh*t around it seems!

**Skanless1** · 10-03-09, 10:27 PM

although, WTF happened to CAL? i didn't think they'd win the game, but thought they'd at least keep it w/in a TD or so.

**sarms** · 10-03-09, 10:28 PM

Nice work this week Pags and Thanks!

**PortsDave** · 10-03-09, 10:32 PM

A 4-3 week, we'll take that, onwards and upwards.

**Cougar Bait** · 10-03-09, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by daneblazer

just in time for the jinx

Yeah, both games covered. Excellent call on the jinx dane

I really hope you don't believe that my Pags-well-wishing post could determine the outcomes of three college football games. Hope you won money.

**Skanless1** · 10-03-09, 10:33 PM

forgot to say THANKS as well pags.. love the work, love your picks, keep it up!!!!

**KingJIM** · 10-03-09, 11:03 PM

Two winning weeks in a row.

**sarms** · 10-04-09, 12:27 AM

Pags = 4-3, Obamaismyuncle = 17-31, (that's not a misprint, this Cat went 17-31)

**awhitejackson** · 10-04-09, 12:42 AM

Good Stuff Pags... I didnt take Mih St due to line movement and I was opposite on the Bears/Trojans (though by watching that game I think your ideas were on track... just horrible decision making, spe. Teams, gameplan, etc. by the Bears here.. 1st Q TD rather than an INT and who knows how it plays out...Should have been a much closer game....) Vandy and redzone turnovers didn't help the cause either.... Anyhow followed you on 5 and came out 3-2,,, Ready for next week... Good Luck and thanks.....AWJackson

**Miser** · 10-04-09, 01:00 AM

I just missed my teaser because Cal couldn't cover. 4-3 isn't bad but still the vig is gonna kill ya. I'm not hating I'm just pointing out the math.

**mcnugget84** · 10-04-09, 01:35 AM

Even though u went 4-3 Pags it was a very good job of handicapping. Besides the CAL blowout we had a great chance of covering the UCLA n Vanderbilt and could of easily went 6-1

**KingJIM** · 10-04-09, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by Miser

I just missed my teaser because Cal couldn't cover. 4-3 isn't bad but still the vig is gonna kill ya. I'm not hating I'm just pointing out the math.

1. Find reduced vig book
2. Use matchbook
3. Lets say 1 unit=$100 2.5 units per play
Lets say the best you can do is -110 on games.
Win $1000 Lost $825 Profit $175 not exactly killed.
-105 Profit= $212.5
matchbook Profit=close to or possibly above $250

**TBoner101** · 10-04-09, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by Skanless1

although, WTF happened to CAL? i didn't think they'd win the game, but thought they'd at least keep it w/in a TD or so.

I actually just back from the Cal USC game a couple hours ago. To tell you truth, I really have no idea what is going on with this team. The talent is clearly there, as Tedford has done more with less for years and has just recently started to recruit with the big boys competitively the last couple of years attempting to close the gap between them, yet they are still not close to the athletic ability of USC's roster.

The coaching from an X's & O's perspective has been there, as Tedford has a rep for being a QB guru (6 NFL 1st Rd. Draft Picks). It is worthy to note that they're production in the NFL has no bearing on his abilities as a coach. If anything, it is actually a compliment, and implies that he maximizes their talent and tailors the offense to suit their strengths which most coaches haven't been able to do on a consistent basis.

College football is not the NFL. Based on comments, press conference with media, and the trust and responsibility combined with play calling, I believe Tedford hasn't really had complete faith in any quarterback for the last five years. The quarterback I feel Tedford has been most impressed with, enough to put his ass and reputation on the line for? Aaron Rodgers. That was a no brainer.

Not to mention a former quarterback who was ranked as one of the top two quarterbacks in the country along with Chris Simms in high school, and was given the nickname "Jesus in Cleats" before he stepped onto campus to endure the beating of a lifetime within three years. After one under season under the tutelage of the offensive mastermind, the night & day transformation of Kyle Boller propelled him into the first round of the NFL Draft. Ironically, he is starting Sunday against my beloved 49ers (not betting on that one).

We all know about the passers, but recently the Bears have started to gain some recognition as a running team and as of late they have been producing NFL backs like a factory. However, today was a make or break game for them and they definitely dug themselves a huge hole in the Pac-10. Something has been off and isn't right about the mindset and toughness of the team the last few years, pretty much since Aaron Rodgers left.

I talked to an assistant coach on the team this summer and I brought up the breakdown of 2007 season. He was one of the few people I didn't know in our cabin during the trip. He was very nice and somewhat acknowledged my assumptions, not explicitly, but replied in a manner where I felt I noticed and picked up a few key subtle hints that he dropped, possibly unintentionally, but didn't want to get into specifics as we were on vacation and that is inside information. I got the feeling a lot of it had to do with the prima donna attitude of certain players, aka Desean Jackson. I thought a lot of it also had to do with the play of Longshore, but with both of them gone, Best's electrifying capability, Riley showcasing flashes of his untapped potential, and an emerging defense, I expected much improvement from this year's team.

From a leadership standpoint, I thought a lot of their problems and lack of execution started at the inconsistent QB play, specifically Longshore, which led to the players not believing/responding in their leader. Now that he is gone, and Riley has failed to perform for the second week in a row, I have absolutely no idea what is going on. Tedford doesn't have to look too far away to jot down some notes from Mike Singletary and just start hitting people in the mouth

**Joe Dogs** · 10-04-09, 04:43 AM

Originally posted by sarms

Pags = 4-3, Obamaismyuncle = 17-31, (that's not a misprint, this Cat went 17-31)

I Just hope no one tailed that mess.

**superduperjacob** · 10-04-09, 04:59 AM

Nice writing, TBoner!

**clowncar** · 10-04-09, 05:23 AM

4-3 is roughly 57% the last time that i looked. What percent are you expecting ?

Nice day pags.

**Joe Dogs** · 10-04-09, 06:43 AM

Clown car I wasn't commenting on pags successful 4-3 Saturday,I was just hoping no one took this 17-31 guy serious and tailed this disaster.......Anyone know if there is any truth to the rumor that pags was banned.

**Cougar Bait** · 10-04-09, 08:50 AM

Pags has been banned and is now a Restricted User. I hope SBR reconsiders this decision.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/240349-pags-has-been-banned.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**Club** · 10-04-09, 08:56 AM

I'll take a 4-3 week any time. It is 57% which will make you good money in the long run. If you bet $100/game and went 4-3 each week, at -110 (and you can usually do better than -110), you make $70 each week. Over 18 weeks or so, you make $1,260. Where else can you make a return like that?
Nice job pags.

Anyone who bets 25+ games in a weekend is going to get buried when that bad week comes and that bad week always comes no matter how good the handicapping is.

**PortsDave** · 10-04-09, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Pags has been banned and is now a Restricted User. I hope SBR reconsiders this decision. http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...en-banned.html

Pags seems to have went mental on a few people who were giving him s**t, as usual the guys that start these things get away with it and the guy who is defending himself is punished. I hope that SBR lift the restriction on him posting.

**DanOmaha** · 10-04-09, 10:23 AM

Can we form a petition and post to try to convince the mods that Pags can be back? (With proper medication...)

**Dbldown11** · 10-04-09, 10:34 AM

what a joke if SBR banned Pags cause of morons like JJ asking for it I'm done here. He's one of the few people that actually contribute to SPORTS HANDICAPPING....JJ throws out horrible picks once in a while but in general he's here to make videos and entertain people. This is a sports betting website and if one of the hardest working cappers has been banned then THIS SITE HAS OFFICIALLY JUMPED THE SHARK

**Bread** · 10-04-09, 10:49 AM

Free Pags! (and Fiver)

**BeatTheJerk** · 10-04-09, 10:51 AM

Relax guys he will be back probably by tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest .................. He is in a cool down period as SBR calls it, I been there before and came back I believe it's 2-4 days ban. Pags was being a distraction to the board because everybody was attacking him and he felt like he had to defend himself to each and every person saying negative things it was polluting the board.

**Dbldown11** · 10-04-09, 10:51 AM

haha Bread....I still laugh my ass off everytime I see your avatar. That video was classic watching him do that. (as a side not I tried and failed miserably)

**Dbldown11** · 10-04-09, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

Relax guys he will be back probably by tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest .................. He is in a cool down period as SBR calls it, I been there before and came back I believe it's 2-4 days ban. Pags was being a distraction to the board because everybody was attacking him and he felt like he had to defend himself to each and every person saying negative things it was polluting the board.

So then shouldnt the people doing the attacking be in a cool down period? How can someone get attacked like that try to defend themself then get put in a "cool down period" What about JJ or the others attacking him and calling for his head? That's nonsense.

**BeatTheJerk** · 10-04-09, 11:03 AM

Sometimes life ain't fair pal, but Pags was saying some nasty shit back following all the attacks.

**puggie** · 10-04-09, 11:10 AM

It makes no sense Jerk...what did you guys do to Obama and the others (assuming you are SBR brass)? I agree with DBldown...I've been reading pags for a couple of years and he's been one of your classiest posters and you ban him and let the other flamers stay? Who makes this decision? I'm sure pags wouldn't mind open debate but the flamers got a little out of hand...true pags got a little nasty back but to ban him is nonsense.

**Dbldown11** · 10-04-09, 11:41 AM

Life aint fair? life didnt make this decision. The people running this site did, and apparantly they are ****ing morons

**Flaghunter** · 10-04-09, 01:03 PM

Hey Pags,,,thanks for the Washington,SMU,Miami games. Glad to be going to the black now with your help. What a good call on the Washington game, that was one to watch. Miami played OKLA tough and got the W. My picks hit thanks for the Advice....Peace

**pags11** · 10-04-09, 06:51 PM

4-3 w/l, +2.5 units on the week...

17-21 w/l, -1.75 units on the season...

**fadethepublic1** · 10-05-09, 02:50 AM

Congrats on your winnings bro. I'm happy when I see other good guys making money. Aloha from Hawaii.

**Bread** · 10-05-09, 08:05 AM

Pags thank you for keeping a roof over my head this weekend.

Let's do it all again!

**crazymonkey** · 10-05-09, 10:17 AM

not a bad week Pags keep it going. you got this