Pags' Plays 9/12

[pags11]

Shortstop,

thank you sir...BOL to you as well this week...

tmanttown,

most of my posts during college football season come within this thread...welcome aboard...

odusmykal,

you're welcome ol' pal...will have them up tonight for you...

dante1,

thank you for stopping by...appreciate your well wishes on the gridiron and in life...GL to you as well my friend...

MSUSpartan32,

haha, good to hear you are coming around...write-ups will be up tonight bud...

MJT1212,

appreciate you saying so...GL to you as well...

sean1981,

thanks for the kind words...GL to you as well this week...

TraderMike,

I tier up to as high as 3 units per game in the middle of the season...GL sir...

RPP,

I understand your hesitation, should be a gutwrenching of a game to watch...GL anyway...

cspurs,

didn't know that about two of the lineman so thank you...just watched SEC Weekly on and they made mention of Cox's possible arm injury...thank you for the info.

merkyone,

just posted it...

[CaneDawg]

pags i really like kansas this week

i think they can put up 50 on anyone and there defense will be slightly better this year

thoughts?

[daneblazer]

Cox isn't injured, he just stinks :-)

It will be interesting to see if they go with Gray or one of the freshmen if Cox can't go. Gray is a completely different Qb and looked better than Cox in the spring game. He was actually used to return punts last season.

[daneblazer]

got that fresno in on time huh :-)

GAME OFF BOARD:It is being reported that 10-15 players from Wisconsin have been infected with the flu. It is unclear at this time which players are affected and the severity of the illness.ESPN

[pags11]

CaneDawg,

I think Kansas is a bit of a dicey play this week personally...yes they can score, but not interested in laying road chalk with them in what could be a tougher trip than anticipated this week...

daneblazer,

money is still up on matchbook right now if you choose to head over there...you can get Fresno +9 (-101)...

agree with your thougths on the UGA QB situation, also watched the spring game and was impressed with Gray...

[AdamL2424]

Wow Pags you are the man!!!!!! you got pver 14,000 views!!!!!

[Perfect Haze]

Play Number Seven:

Fresno State +9 (-101) for 1 unit

This is totally a WINNER!

[Perfect Haze]

I'm also on East Carolina but + 7 and South Carolina Under..

Florida-34
Kansas -12
Texas -33
Notre Dame -3.5

Common bud give me some feedback, bless BOL this week bro!

[Mr. Lucky]

Bookmaker took Fresno off the board, why?
Pags, I appreciate your hard work! BOL!

[Mendozaaaa]

Good luck this week pags! I love the effort and work you put into each pick.

[solidsteel408]

Northwestern-18 easy money
Wisconsin-9 easy money
North Carolina-4easy money
Notre Dame -3easy money
Minnesota-5easy money

50 dollar parlay

No such thing is easy money.. Are you deluded? You forgot to take your dosage. LMAO

[sean1981]

Fresno/UW and S. Carolina were taken off the board at the site I use. Anyone know why the Cocks are gone?

[GiveMeaBJ]

Fresno/UW and S. Carolina were taken off the board at the site I use. Anyone know why the Cocks are gone?

Cause their in your sister.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Sorry couldn't resist.

[rpbrownie]

Pags thanks for the picks looking forward to a great season

5dimes still has Fresno +8.5 up on the board

[taurus]

I love that Fresno call, pags.

That one was already pencilled in on the bullsheet.

GL

[daneblazer]

Fresno/UW and S. Carolina were taken off the board at the site I use. Anyone know why the Cocks are gone?

because bodog sucks

[SoonerBS]

I love that Fresno call, pags.

That one was already pencilled in on the bullsheet.

GL

I like it, too, and I may have to add it to my plays this week. Whenever I went to bet it this morning, it was off the board.

Pags, good luck this week . . . .

[pags11]

AdamL2424,

thanks bro...just trying to do what I can and am glad people appreciate my work...

Perfect Haze,

it's always a risky proposition going against Wisconsin at home but I agree it's worthy of a play...I personally wouldn't play any of those plays, but I wouldn't play against any of those teams either...GL...

Mr. Lucky,

I have read it's due to some Wisconsin players being sick...

Mendozaaaa,

thank you for saying so, I do try to work hard and am appreciative you notice...

sean1981,

not sure really on that game other than Cox may be a little banged up...

rpbrownie,

appreciate you letting everyone know that about the Fresno State game...thanks for the well wishes and best of luckt to you as well...

taurus,

glad we are on the same page on that one ol' pal...GL this week...

daneblazer,

bodog does suck, I recommend never playing there...

SoonerBS,

good to hear you feel the same way my friend...GL to you as well

[pags11]

going to type up my write-ups...be back in a couple of hours...

[DrLuck]

Good Luck this week pags... Hope you get the $...

[pags11]

Iowa State +6.5

Every year it seems Iowa State finds a way to keep it close with Iowa. I am thinking we will see more of the same this year in a game being played in Aimes. It is my belief that this year there is less of a talent gap between the two teams than in the previous couple of years. As most of you are aware, Iowa State takes this game very seriously where I’m not always sure that Iowa does as much. I’m not saying that Iowa isn’t going to come out and play hard in this game, but rather that this with this particular game we usually see Iowa State’s best effort of the season. It is also usually the case that the Iowa State fan base is the loudest when Iowa comes to town, which could play a huge role in this interstate rivalry.

Most of what I have read about what Iowa State head coach Paul Rhodes has done in taking over the Iowa State program after the departure of Gene Chizik leads me to believe that his players and his community believe in what he is building. I’m not sure the same can be said about the two years Chizik was here. Much has been made of the Iowa State spread offense, which I feel can create some problems for Iowa’s defense. What I mean by that is most of the offenses Iowa faces in conference play are pro-set offenses where most of the players are in the box. This allows linebackers to focus mainly on the run, while occasionally having to cover a tight end or two. ISU QB Austin Arnaud, one of the more underrated QB’s in the Big 12, has the arm and legs to create some match-up problems against the Iowa defense. RB Alexander Robinson is now in his third year in the program and has progressed every year, which is now taking some heat off Arnaud and creating more balance on offense. WR’s Marquis Hamiliton and Darius Reynolds appear to be two young playmakers that can stretch defenses.

Iowa will try to attack the ISU defense with methodical drives, based off the runing game and play action passes. ISU must make it a priority to contain versatile Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi. Fortunately for Stanzi he doesn’t have much of a running game to work with, especially since veteran RB Jewel Hampton is now out for the season due to injury. TE Tony Moeaki is a veteran pass catcher who is very skilled at moving the chains but lacks the breakaway speed he once had after several injuries he’s sustained over his career. Iowa’s RB’s are inexperienced, their leading RB Adam Robinson has a total of fifteen career carries and those came last week against Northern Iowa. Iowa’s WR’s are also young and it will be tough for them to make a lot of big plays in such an intensity filled game.

Lastly, I think it’s important to note how much Iowa did struggle at home to NIU last week. I was able to watch a lot of the game and although NIU has a good team, something just doesn’t appear to be right with Iowa right now. Maybe they are still getting over the Hampton injury, and maybe they really miss the two defensive linemen they lost to the NFL draft. That being said, it’s Iowa State and the points for me here.


Connecticut +5

Say what you want about Connecticut being a team with a “luck box” as they tend to outperform expectations each year under head coach Randy Edsal. I have a different opinion, one that gives Edsal much credit for building a terrific program with discipline, recruiting and facility upgrades. When I watch Connecticut play, as I did last week in their game vs. Ohio, I see big-time division one athletes, athletes who can compete on a national stage. Fortunately, most people don’t get to watch Connecticut play a whole lot and when they do they dismiss the program as lacking talent, or overachievers. I got news for everyone, anyone checkout how many players UConn got drafted last year in the NFL draft? It might surprise you to go back and look.

Most of you are aware that UConn lost their top tailback, Donald Brown, last year to the NFL draft. What most people don’t realize is that sophomore sensation Julian Todman is the real deal, and with all due respect to UNC defensive end Marvin Austin, I think he will be the best player on the field in Saturday’s game. This kid has balance, explosiveness and vision and he’s backed up by a former All-Big East RB in Andre Dixon. UConn QB Zach Frazer, a once highly touted recruit who originally committed to Notre Dame, has been criticized greatly for his performance in week one. I went back and watched the tape and two of the three interceptions he threw were off tipped balls. In addition to that, there were several terrific throws he made that were dropped by UConn receivers. I’m not going to tell you that Frazer is a game breaker, but he’s better than people are giving him credit for and I think he has it fresh in his mind how poorly he played last year at UNC and he would like to make a better showing this week. He will need to manage the game, check down to backs and tight ends and make sure he doesn’t force throws. UConn has yet to have a pass catcher emerge as a real threat, but they did have eight different players catch passes last week. UNC’s strength of their team is with their defense and I expect them to put a lot of pressure on Frazier and to put eight guys in the box routinely. If UConn can limit their turnovers and play field position, it’s not going to be necessarily about what the do on offense as much as it is limiting mistakes and putting UNC’s offense in a position to make mistakes.

Defensively UConn has essentially reloaded the past couple of years. Edsal served under Tom Caughlin and he understands how to teach defense and special teams, which have been signatures recently of the UConn program. I don’t see this year’s team being any different as I saw good tackling from the team last week, and the strength of their defense appears to be against the run. Fortunately for UConn, UNC are breaking in three new wide receivers (including former RB Greg Little), which has put more pressure on their running game. Shaun Draun is a big back who likes to pound it between the tackles and Ryan Houston is more of a speed back. While both players are talented runners, I see some issues with UNC’s offensive line which could present some problems in UNC moving the ball regularly. This will put a lot of pressure on veteran QB T.J. Yates, who last year battled through a foot injury and didn’t appear to have the same swagger and arm strength when he came back from injury. If UConn can get some pressure on Yates and force him into some bad decisions they can create some short drives and get the home crowd behind them.

Butch Davis is an excellent coach, but I feel Randy Edsal is a comparable coach who doesn’t receive quite the notoriety. This game should be a defensive battle and the points could appear much more attractive as the game goes into the fourth quarter. I’ll take UConn and the points in this one.


East Carolina +6.5

Anytime I go against West Virginia at home it’s always a bit risky, especially since they have one of the best players in college football playing for them, Noel Devine. It is my belief, though, that ECU head coach Skip Holtz will have his team prepared for the challenge comes Saturday.

Defensively, ECU brings back most of their starters from last year. ECU was decimated with injuries towards the end of last season which led to them not finishing strong. At the beginning of last year everyone saw how they played football not like a Conference USA team, but like a BCS conference team. They have big, fast athletes on defense that can run with the West Virginia offensive players. That will be an important thing because WVU does have a couple talented guys. WVU RB Noel Devine might be the best running back in the country, and one thing that impresses me with him is that he continues to get better as the game goes on. QB Jarrett Brown, while not Pat White, is a talented player who can make plays through the air and on with his feet. The other player ECU will have to watch carefully is WR Jock Sanders. Fortunately for ECU, those seem to be the three main focal points of the WVU offense and believe me when I say that all week, and parts of last week, Skip Holtz has drilled that in their head. I can remember in last year’s game that Holtz had a great game plan to defend the WVU spread, and that was with Pat White still at the helm. I expect another good game plan from Holtz and his coaching staff again this week.

ECU’s offense is lead by senior QB Patrick Pickney who has spent the better part of the last two seasons as the starting quarterback. While he did struggle last week vs. Appalachian State, he had a terrific game last year vs. WVU and he is usually very good with his decision making and possesses good arm strength. RB Dominique Lindsay is back from his injury last year and is running well, breaking off a 41 yard touchdown run last week. He is backed up by capable Brandon Jackson, who averaged 9.1 yards per carry last week. WR’s Dwayne Harris and Jamar Bryant should be able to stretch the WVU defense, a defense I saw last week give up chunks of yardage to FCS opponent Liberty. I believe the key to this game is the ECU offense being able to sustain drives against a WVU defense that I feel is far from sound. It should also be noted that WVU’s kickoff coverage is again atrocious this year, which could allow ECU to start their drives in good field position.

I’ll take Skip Holtz and his boys against Bill Stewart and his team. Let’s cross our fingers that Noel Devine has to take a couple of water breaks throughout. In the meantime ECU trades blows with WVU in what I think could end up being a very close game.


Louisiana Tech +7.5

I believe that most people are looking at the final scores of last week’s games of both Navy and La. Tech and thinking that Navy is going to blow La. Tech out. However, I watched the La. Tech game live and went back and watched the Navy game from last week and have a different opinion. While I was impressed with Navy battling for four quarters last week with Ohio State, I feel they were one play away from being blown out by 3 TD’s which made the final score a bit deceiving. Speak of deceiving finals; La. Tech was down by only ten points in the fourth quarter in their game last week vs. Auburn, against an improved Auburn team that I underestimated when handicapping last week’s game.

After watching Ben Tate and Mario Fannin run around last week, the game should slow down a bit for the Louisiana Tech defense. As I mentioned last week, La. Tech is a fundamentally sound defensive football team, which is what they will need to be when defending Navy QB Ricky Dobbs and their triple option attack. La. Tech did have a couple of lineman get banged up in last week’s game but reports I read this week were that most of them would be back in their usual spots this week. Dobbs is a talented playmaker, both on the ground and has the ability to hit long pass plays, making him difficult to defend. Fortunately, Navy lost most of their skill position players from last years team and they are breaking in new players. FB Alexander Teich has thirteen career carries and WR Marcus Curry has four career receptions. I think La. Tech Derek Dooley should have a good plan to slow down this attack, which should allow La. Tech to stay in the ballgame.

The bottom line is that La. Tech’s offense has got to improve upon on their performance from last week, and while I do have respect for the Navy defense, it is a defense that plays more at the speed of La. Tech’s offense. QB Ross Jenkins did make one fantastic throw last week at Auburn and did sustain some drives in the ballgame, but he’s got to be more accurate and not be afraid to tuck it and run occasionally. RB Daniel Porter was a little hesitant hitting the hole last week, which could have been a product of the La. Tech offensive line getting beat. Again, that cannot happen this week. Lastly Phillip Livas, who I will not refer to as “Saturday Night Livas” until he shows me something, has got to be more explosive.

La. Tech had a hard week of practice and some of their players are battling the flu, but if there is one thing you can count on from Derek Dooley it’s that he has his guys ready to play each week. Navy may suffer a bit of a letdown after their comeback fell short last week and if so my hopes are La. Tech can jump out early. I’ll take La. Tech and the points here.


Southern Miss -14.5

A lot like Tulsa did at the beginning of last year, I believe that Larry Fedora’s Southern Miss squad is flying under the radar this year. Fedora is an unbelievable recruiter and has shown to be an outstanding coach with the way he turned Southern Miss’s season around during the second half of last year, culminating with a bowl victory.

It was impressive that although QB Austin Davis did play on the Southern Miss football team this spring, he didn’t miss any of his spring football practices. In fact, I believe he flew home from a couple of his baseball games so he could make his football practices. Davis is a solid all around quarterback and has many playmakers in his offense to work with. Senior running back Damion Fletcher has a chance to be a four-time thousand yard rusher and he is fortunate to have one of Southern Miss’s best offensive lines since he arrived in Hattiesburg. It appears that sophomore sensation, WR DeAndre Brown will return for this week’s game which would be a further boost to the Southern Miss offense. In the event that he is held out of this week’s game Southern Miss has other young playmakers such as freshman RB Desmond Johnson and senior WR Freddie Parham. Southern Miss will look to attack the secondary of UCF who lost all four starters from last year, all of whom which were Honorable Mention or better on the All-CUSA team.

Southern Miss has also really improved on the defensive side of the football this season and they will face a UCF offense who struggles to move the football. It appears that Wake Forest transfer, Brett Hodges will start in place of incumbent Rob Calabrese. Hodges performed well in the second half against FCS opponent Samford last week, a game UCF almost lost, but he doesn’t appear to have any playmakers to work with. Head Coach George O’Leary seems to be set on establishing the run, as RB Brynn Harvey had 31 carries last week, but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. I don’t expect him to have even that much success this week against Southern Miss, which will put pressure on the UCF passing game to convert third and longs. If Southern Miss is able to make UCF one-dimensional, this could create some turnovers and thus separation.

It’s tough to lay over two TD’s in a conference game, a CUSA game at that, but I will do so this week with Southern Miss.


South Carolina +7

Much has been made of the demise of the Ol’ Ball Coach, or Head Ball Coach as I believe he prefers to be called. I will agree that Steve Spurrier may not be the coach he once was; or rather that other coaches have adapted better the last ten years than he has. That being said, he is still a wily veteran coach and we saw him go in last week and steal a victory from a well-coached NCSU squad last week. I think his team could present similar problems this week when the team heads to Athens, Georgia.

Watching last week’s game I saw some progress from South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia. He made better decisions with the football, didn’t tuck and run with it so much, and made some key throws in the fourth quarter of that ballgame. If South Carolina is going to have a chance in this game he will have to do more of the same this week against a stout Georgia defense. I believe that Spurrier’s offensive game plan will be a little more aggressive than last week, with South Carolina getting back WR Deon LeCorn for this game which should help with their passing game. RB Brian Maddox runs hard and ran mainly between the tackles last week. He will have to take some pressure off of Garcia, including catching the ball out of the backfield with some screens. I’m going to be completely honest with you, if an offense as good as Oklahoma State’s only got 24 points against Georgia’s defense, it will be a struggle for South Carolina to move the football regularly.

Fortunately, I expect much of the same with Georgia’s offense against South Carolina’s defense. What I saw from South Carolina’s defense last week was some highly touted freshman players (heard a ton about South Carolina’s recruiting class this past season but didn’t buy into it until last week) making some big-time plays against All-ACC NCSU QB Russell Wilson. I meant all of the good things I said about Georgia’s offense last week, with the one exception that as long as Joe Cox leads this offense I think that Georgia is going to struggle to score points against quality defenses like South Carolina’s. He was 15-30 last week while missing on many passes which would normally be considered high percentage passes. Also RB Richard Samuel seemed to go down a lot after first contact, although RB Caleb King should be back this week to carry some of the load. If South Carolina can contain Georgia WR A.J. Green I think they can have some success in defending Georgia’s offense.

Games between these two teams are usually pretty close and I expect another tightly contested battle again this week. I’ll take South Carolina and the points in this one.


Fresno State +9

Fresno State is pretty much two different teams when it comes to handicapping their games. Typically they play well in their non-conference games against BCS opponents and stink it up against the rest of their schedule. I watched these two teams play each other last year and can tell you they are very similar in the style of football they both play.

Fresno State returns most of their offensive playmakers from last year’s team, with the exception of their quarterback. Junior QB, Ryan Colburn, now in his third year in the program will lead the Bulldogs into Madison this weekend. Fortunately for Colburn, Fresno State returns three of their top pass catchers from last year in Seyi Ajirotutu, Devon Wylie and Marlon Moore. While all three of these players have the potential to break a big play, they are probably going to be asked to play the role more of possession receivers this weekend, with Fresno State head coach Pat Hill occasionally dialing up a deep route. The strength of the Fresno State offense is with their running game and offensive line. RB Ryan Matthews (14 TD in 2007) is one of the best tailbacks in the country you have never heard of. Veteran back-up Lonyae Miller and freshman Robbie Rouse are also very capable and will spell Matthews throughout the game. Even though Wisconsin is a Big Ten team, they play more at the defensive speed of a team like Fresno State, which means Fresno State could have some success moving the ball this week.

Defensively Fresno returns most of their starters from last year’s team, all of whom they will need to defend the running duo of Wisconsin RB’s Johnathon Clay and Zach Brown. Wisconsin head coach Brett Beliema has made it a point to center his offense on his running game. However, Wisconsin lost a lot off of their offensive line from last year, which could make it harder for their backs to run against Fresno’s defense. One player Fresno will have to focus on is WR Nick Toon, who I was very impressed with in watching last week’s tape vs. NIU. QB Scott Tolzien has a nice arm and good feet but I watched him force a lot of throws last week, some of which went for big plays, some of which ended up being intercepted. If he forces throws this week against Fresno State’s secondary that could set Fresno up with some short fields.

Playing against Wisconsin in Madison is always a tricky proposition, especially in a game that has a west coast team playing at 9 AM PST. I still think Fresno and the points are the play in this one.




Good luck to all.

[pags11]

drluck,

thank you...same to you sir...

[KingKing]

thanks very much for sharing the plays pags......and for putting them all together like that..thanks very best of luck!!!

[mcmc]

Pags- thanks for the hard work. Your handicapping skills are much appriciated.

good luck all

[pags11]

KingKing,

you're welcome and thank you...BOL to you as well...

mcmc,

glad you appreciate it...GL to you as well...

[I only win money]

Lots of plays pags
Good luck this week

[pags11]

iwin,

thank you and BOL to you as well...

[KingKing]

pags your opinion on this teaser would be much appreciated..thanks again for the reply!

Item #1Wager Type:SpreadOutcome:PendingSport / Period:College Football / Game Line:
East Carolina 9/12/2009 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
+20½
* Game Notes:
(TM CH)Item #2Wager Type:SpreadOutcome:PendingSport / Period:College Football / Game Line:
Iowa State 9/12/2009 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
+20
* Game Notes:
(FSN) (TM CH)Item #3Wager Type:SpreadOutcome:PendingSport / Period:College Football / Game Line:
Louisiana Tech 9/12/2009 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
+21½
* Game Notes:
(CBC)Item #4Wager Type:SpreadOutcome:PendingSport / Period:College Football / Game Line:
Southern Mississippi 9/12/2009 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-½
* Game Notes:
(TM CH)

[shrax4]

Expecting 7 wins out of you, and nothing less! BOL pags.

[pags11]

kingking,

with all due respect I don't believe in playing teasers, have learned over the years you are better playing games straight...sorry I don't have a better answer for you...

shrax4,

lol, you the man bro...GL this week...

[KingKing]

kingking,

with all due respect I don't believe in playing teasers, have learned over the years you are better playing games straight...sorry I don't have a better answer for you...

shrax4,

lol, you the man bro...GL this week...

thanks that answer is perfect!!! b o l.............

[saddestbison]

With all due respect pags, PJ hill was just cut by the Saints, so fresno won't be dealing with him.

[KingJIM]

Thanks for the plays and write ups. Everyone remember good money management. Even playing a winnning cappers plays can lead to losing without good money management.

[pags11]

saddestbison,

my bad man, I haven't slept much this week...thanks for the heads up though...already got it edited...

KingJIM,

you're welcome and great advice to give...