Pags' Plays 9/12

**blowseq** · 09-07-09, 05:57 AM

Bol Pags...

**Smails Kid** · 09-07-09, 08:23 AM

Pags --- looking forward to your 9-12 plays and for more games like BYU-Oklahoma ... couldn't have asked for a better way to start the college football season than with one of the powerhouses getting popped in the mouth and many other top programs fighting for their lives in the 4th quarter. Enjoy your Labor Day!

**JimmyJet** · 09-07-09, 08:29 AM

pags it is a long season and am sure your picks will get stronger as you garner more information...first couple weeks are difficult because hard to know who will play well with so many new players and coaches....is your strength in college or pro? Hopefully you do well in both. Look forward to your writeups and selections....ignore those who expect the world and have nothing but gripes to offer. Best of luck...JJ

**unionfitter** · 09-07-09, 08:46 AM

get em back Pags...and THANKS

Gotta say something here Pags....insights are really appreciated by me and others who troll around in here without posting or joining. BUT, there seems to be an awful lot of people in this forum who take delight in pounding and crucification when a bad weekend happens. Even before the results are played out, some people just don't contribute what I would call "sharing info" to help us all TRY to gain some insight into the games. Seems there are a lot of brats with a lot of time between classes that have nothing better to do than slam others. I've seen it happen before in other forums as well, and those that take the time, effort, and balls to post get tired of being slammed and either go elsewhere or quit posting all together. Some people seem to get enjoyment out of trying to belittle others even before the results play out. And sometimes we all have bad weekends. Vegas wasn't built by everyone winning against the house!!! Most good cappers I follow took a hit this weekend, and not that it was expected, but it happens once in a while. My point is...there are a ton of players who troll around and really appreciate what you and some others do. Personally, I use it as added info and another perspective in my deciding on who/what plays to make. To the others that take delight in slamming (for lack of a better term right now), get a friggen life. You're really not a better/bigger/more knowledgable person because you can hide behind computer keys and insult someone who obviously takes time to research and post analysis of the upcoming games. Knowledgable, respectful disagreement is, IMO, encouraged by most good cappers. It helps everyone out. I am rambling here...and must say, a little pissed off at some of the reaction by a few random posters. Keep up the good work...it is appreciated by a lot of people. Noone holds a gun to my head and tells me to play yours or anyone elses picks. To those that follow blindly, try to do what the better cappers do...and then post your own picks. Or quit playing....either way, get the idea out of your head that others think you're a better man because you come into another's thread and slam his/hers analysis and picks. Thanks for letting me vent Pags...I and others really respect you and your effort (along with some others here) and just want to say thank you!! It was a brutle weekend by most accounts (and it would have been a lot worse if later in the season and was playing full amounts, LOL)....but guess what, we have had some weekends where we killed the house as well. Here's to hoping that those that don't have any real contributions to the forum just go away....

. Let's get it back Pags. Good luck!!!

**SoonerBS** · 09-07-09, 09:03 AM

Let's get 'em this week, Pags . . . . .

**Cougar Bait** · 09-07-09, 09:06 AM

BOL Pags. I will be checking your plays as they come in. Any love for the Boilers...or do they get taken down by double digits by Blountless Ducks?

**bypp** · 09-07-09, 09:47 AM

Best of luck pags. Really looking forward to your insight. Any opinion on byu -17.5 over tulane? Thanks!

**jimmymo** · 09-07-09, 10:49 AM

pags....I am stopping by to eat my crow in front of you...lol....that call on BYU was solid....maybe OU has a chance to cover if Bradford doesn't go down, but I doubt it.....very much looking forward to your thoughts on this week's card.

best of luck in week 2...maybe we can end up on the same side on a game or two this weekend...

**Skanless1** · 09-07-09, 11:01 AM

good luck pags, you'll bounce back... and don't pay these haters any mind!

**Perfect Haze** · 09-07-09, 11:22 AM

So far I'll appreciate if you could include some comments on Air force + 4.5(MN coach sucks I'll never bet on that team again!), East Carolina +6(they're playing against West VA but EC seems to be an awesome team to bet in, I don't know what you say), Stanford +2.5 and Fresno st +8.5...

besides those I'm also looking at these games.. 386)Florida-36, 339)Notre Dame -4.5, Nebraska)-24, 361)KANSAS-11, 377) Oregon St -7, 366)Oklahoma st -15 and Penn St -28 (I think Palalus is a great QB but I think that Penn st will destroy them as they were unable to beat MN that is a team I consider really suck due to their head coach.. Do you see the TO call before a punt!! lol).. GL to you for this week..

**snapstick** · 09-07-09, 11:26 AM

Pags my question on your other thread about when you post was confusing to me. Just was wondering if you can narrow it down to which day do you usually start to post your plays. Again not trying to be pushy just want to get your lines.

**snapstick** · 09-07-09, 11:28 AM

I saw on the RX a very good capper over there has his TOP PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami +6.5 tonight. Any thoughts Pags?

**VenomLugz** · 09-07-09, 11:39 AM

I will see you this week! GL!

**ksufan19** · 09-07-09, 12:07 PM

was hoping for some good picks for may 12th, i don't think i'm doing anything that day.

GL this week.

**IrishTim** · 09-07-09, 12:16 PM

Looking forward to the plays and writeups, pags. You were smart enough enough to only bet .5 units this week and I'm sure what you learned is way more valuable than the unit or so you lost. Good luck this week.

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 01:57 PM

blowseq,

thank you...GL to you this week as well...

Smails Kid,

there were some good week one games to watch, thanks for checking in...enjoy your Labor Day as well...

JimmyJet,

well said sir...appreciate that very much...

unionfitter,

I really appreciated your post...thanking for taking the time to share your opinion...it's a thankless job sometimes doing what I do but it's good to know there are people like you out there who appreciate my efforts...GL this week sir...

bypp,

thanks bud...I cannot recommend BYU as a play this week...doesn't mean I will be playing Tulane, I just believe this is a very bad spot for Tulane...

jimmymo,

you are class act my friend...a lot of people told me how wrong I would be before that game but you are a man about it, I respect that...hope we will be on many more games together the rest of the year rather than against eachother...

Skanless1,

you know it bro, let's not listen to the "elevator music" and stay focused...thank you and GL...

Perfect Haze,

still checking out the card but will try to get back to you shortly...

snapstick,

I post my plays as soon as my matchbook offers are matched...matchbook is a book/exchange...I have no opinion on the Miami FL/ FSU game...

VenomLugz,
good luck venom...

ksufan19,

it's always good to take the day off when it's college football Saturday...

IrishTim,

that is so true sir...played light, lost a little and learned a ton...you are a wise man...

**jackpot269** · 09-07-09, 02:28 PM

gl this week pags its only going to get better each and every week as have more info on each and every team !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 02:44 PM

jackpot,

that's the plan, always takes a couple of weeks to get a feel for all of the teams...GL to you as well...

**darkenergy** · 09-07-09, 02:47 PM

Pag....plays for 9/12 not 5/12 Sir....No?

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 03:02 PM

darkenergy,

you are correct sir, thank you for the heads up...trying to get one of the mods to change it now...

**Cougar Bait** · 09-07-09, 03:07 PM

I was wondering about that...figured you'd get it fixed...since it's not May and all (thank God, I'd have another disappointing Cubs season to sit through). Anticipation of Pags plays...building...GL this week bro

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 03:20 PM

cougar bait,

to be honest, I'm so tired from watching games and reading box scores I totally just dropped the ball on the title...thanks man...

**pokernut9999** · 09-07-09, 03:21 PM

Appreciate your write-ups Pags

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 03:22 PM

Play Number One:

Iowa St. +6.5 (+103) for 1 unit

**SexyMit** · 09-07-09, 03:30 PM

I was already eye balling that play Pags! GL this yr again as it is a wonderful time of yr. Football is here again!

**SexyMit** · 09-07-09, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

I saw on the RX a very good capper over there has his TOP PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami +6.5 tonight. Any thoughts Pags?

I don't know but I'm on Florida myself!

**Cougar Bait** · 09-07-09, 03:32 PM

Kinda thought this might be a play...not only does Iowa St. have a great recent history I think Iowa is kinda lost with their RB situation, not to mention on the road here. Iowa St. always gets up for this game. They could easily win outright.

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 03:38 PM

sexymit,

good to hear you were already eyeing that play as I respect your opinion...good luck with Florida, don't have much of an opinion on it other than don't bet against Urban Meyer...lol...

cougar bait,

that's pretty much how I see things...good analysis...

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 03:40 PM

Play Number Two:

Connecticut +5 (+101) for 1 unit

**chubber911** · 09-07-09, 03:43 PM

pags, do you ever take bets because you believe there will be a line move you can make an arbitrage on? Even if unintentional at the time of the original bet, do you ever hedge your bets?

edit: also, what books do you shop at? I couldn't find Conn +5 (+101) anywhere. The closest line I saw was -103 at Pinny a couple hours ago.

**MarkHammond** · 09-07-09, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by pags11

sexymit,

good to hear you were already eyeing that play as I respect your opinion...good luck with Florida, don't have much of an opinion on it other than don't bet against Urban Meyer...lol...

cougar bait,

that's pretty much how I see things...good analysis...

he meant fla state pags

**IowaHawkeyes** · 09-07-09, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Play Number One:

Iowa St. +6.5 (+103) for 1 unit

BOL Pags. This one would scare me a bit though. As you can imagine, I have a strong interest in this game.

The UNI team that Iowa played last week is a better than than this ISU squad. Rhodes is taking over a team that had a one year coach last year in Chizik. The problems for the Iowa offense came from the offensive line and inefficiency at the RB position. The interior part of the line has had injuries and is still looking for a center. They are starting to return a few lineman however. Regarding running back, Adam Robinson showed a LOT more than Paki O'Meara did and is going to be more serviceable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Jeff Brinson come into the mix as he has been slowed due to health problems (having asthma, living in Iowa and early September/late August are a triple dose of f*** me in the behind

) and has been slowed due to it. I would wonder if Brandon Wegher could come into the game as well, who has shown to be much more aggressive, as well as Brinson has, as opposed to Robinson.. and especially O'Meara.

The defense returns a good amount of starters which was nearly a Top 10 defense in every run category last year. The only positions they lost really were a corner and their 2 4 year starters at DT. Having seen them this summer, and watching the game on Saturday, it could be argued that the defensive line is much more athletic than it has been in years past - something the ISU o-line could very well struggle with.

I know where you're coming from though. This is a game where UI has struggled very much in recent history, especially in Ames. Another new coaching staff in their 2nd game, in a down year personnel wise, doesn't bode to well for them in my opinion though. The trenches could show to be very problematic for ISU, as their offense is going to have their hands full. For a good deal of the game, Iowa was keeping pressure on Pat Grace of UNI with just the 4 d-linemen rushing. Besides a bad execution on the touchdown, they held a very potent UNI offense to just 3 field goals (2 in the 2nd half after a very poor 2nd quarter performance), including handing them the ball outside of the red zone on a fumble.

Offensive wise, this line -- if they figure out the problem at center, and it appears center Rafael Eubanks very well could be replaced, but it might not be until next week. Meanwhile, the Hawks do return Calloway to the tackle position, who should have no problem covering the side of the line opposite Bulaga.

Best of luck Pags, from deep in my heart, this is probably the only time this reason I hope you get spanked on your pick

Iowa's D came out of the gate strong, fluctuated mid-game, and finished the 2nd half strong, finishing with those 2 blocked field goals. IMO the offense will get back on the ball. ISU needs to find the end zone though, they need to stop relying on field goals as they have in recent history.

**pags11** · 09-07-09, 03:58 PM

chubber911,

I've never been much of a scalper as I handicap for strictly recreational purpose but I don't blame you for doing so...currently I have my bookmaker and matchbook account funded...

mark,

oh ok, got it...thanks...

iowahawkeyes,

appreciate your insight, great stuff...you have made some good points...I'll have my thoughts for you on this on on Thursday...

**IowaHawkeyes** · 09-07-09, 04:10 PM

And good luck with week (in general

) don't let them haters get you. Even if we don't always voice it, we surely do appreciate it.