Why is SMU an underdog tonight?

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 08:08 AM

Tough to win in Orlando.
-3 is about right.

**DJK** · 10-05-22, 08:52 AM

Date	Date	Rot	VH	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final	Open	Close	ML	2H	Closed	ScoDif	Result	Covered	ATS	SU
				SMU																ATS Fav	8
				CentralFlorida																ATS Dog	2

Sat, 11-13-2021	1113	185	V	CentralFlorida	14	0	7	7	28	59	61	225	28.5	7.0	-27.0	-20.0	CentralFlorida			SU Fav	10
Sat, 11-13-2021	1113	186	H	SMU	21	17	7	10	55	7	7	-265	0.5	-7.0	27.0	20.0	SMU	Fav	Fav	SU Dog	0

Sat, 10-06-2018	1006	325	V	SMU	3	7	3	7	20	69.5	74	1375	33.5	25.5	-28.0	-2.5	SMU			ATS Away Fav	1
Sat, 10-06-2018	1006	326	H	CentralFlorida	21	6	7	14	48	25	25.5	-3500	11.5	-25.5	28.0	2.5	CentralFlorida	Fav	Fav	ATS Away Dog	0

Sat, 11-04-2017	1104	375	V	CentralFlorida	7	14	7	3	31	12.5	14	-550	4.5	-14.0	7.0	-7.0	CentralFlorida		Fav	ATS Home Fav	7
Sat, 11-04-2017	1104	376	H	SMU	7	7	10	0	24	73.5	75	400	38	14.0	-7.0	7.0	SMU	Dog		ATS Home Dog	2

Sat, 11-22-2014	1122	203	V	SMU	0	7	0	0	7	47.5	48.5	3250	23	28.5	-46.0	-17.5	SMU			SU Away Fav	3
Sat, 11-22-2014	1122	204	H	CentralFlorida	27	10	6	10	53	25.5	28.5	-7500	10	-28.5	46.0	17.5	CentralFlorida	Fav	Fav	SU Away Dog	0

Sat, 12-07-2013	1207	115	V	CentralFlorida	0	3	14	0	17	10	14	-550	9.5	-14.0	4.0	-10.0	CentralFlorida		Fav	SU Home Fav	7
Sat, 12-07-2013	1207	116	H	SMU	3	7	3	0	13	60.5	56.5	425	27.5	14.0	-4.0	10.0	SMU	Dog		SU Home Dog	0

Sat, 11-03-2012	1103	363	V	SMU	3	7	0	7	17	51	50.5	310	24.5	9.5	-25.0	-15.5	SMU			Away Favored	3
Sat, 11-03-2012	1103	364	H	CentralFlorida	7	14	14	7	42	10	9.5	-370	3.5	-9.5	25.0	15.5	CentralFlorida	Fav	Fav	Home Dog	3

Sat, 10-15-2011	1015	169	V	CentralFlorida	0	3	0	14	17	44	47	150	0.5	3.5	-21.0	-17.5	CentralFlorida			Away Dog	7
Sat, 10-15-2011	1015	170	H	SMU	10	7	7	14	38	1.5	3.5	-170	23	-3.5	21.0	17.5	SMU	Fav	Fav	Home Favored	7

Sat, 12-04-2010	1204	333	V	SMU	0	0	0	7	7	54	55.5	260	25.5	7.5	-10.0	-2.5	SMU
Sat, 12-04-2010	1204	334	H	CentralFlorida	7	3	7	0	17	8	7.5	-320	2.5	-7.5	10.0	2.5	CentralFlorida	Fav	Fav

Sat, 10-04-2008	1004	363	V	SMU	10	0	0	7	17	56	55	400	24.5	13.5	-14.0	-0.5	SMU
Sat, 10-04-2008	1004	364	H	CentralFlorida	3	7	14	7	31	14	13.5	-500	7	-13.5	14.0	0.5	CentralFlorida	Fav	Fav

Sat, 11-17-2007	1117	351	V	CentralFlorida	21	14	14	0	49	13	10.5	-370	2.5	-10.5	29.0	18.5	CentralFlorida	Fav	Fav
Sat, 11-17-2007	1117	352	H	SMU	10	3	7	0	20	75	71	310	35	10.5	-29.0	-18.5	SMU

**DJK** · 10-05-22, 08:53 AM

Of the 10 games between the two, Away Dog never covered from 2007 to current.

**VeggieDog** · 10-05-22, 09:32 AM

A bunch of SMU players are sitting out the rest of the season. It's been in the news.

**DJK** · 10-05-22, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by VeggieDog

A bunch of SMU players are sitting out the rest of the season. It's been in the news.

Then, shouldn't the line be a lot higher for UCF?

I thought about taking SMU, but decided to lay off it after seeing the trends of no away dog covered from 2007 onwards.

Can you please post a link to that news about SMU players sitting out? Thanks in advance.

**RavensFan2k3** · 10-05-22, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Husker36

I dont understand. On paper they look 10 points better.

How the hell do they look 10 points better? Lol. They are just about even with a slight edge to UCF due to being at home

**flakeandbake** · 10-05-22, 11:02 AM

Both teams suck so bad. Would give the edge to SMU and perhaps their new coach has something to prove vs ex Auburn guy. That said, UCF over due in this spot. Yet again, SMU over due for a cover if you’ve followed their last 2 games.

Pretty much a solid no touch

**DJK** · 10-05-22, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

Both teams suck so bad. Would give the edge to SMU and perhaps their new coach has something to prove vs ex Auburn guy. That said, UCF over due in this spot. Yet again, SMU over due for a cover if you’ve followed their last 2 games.

Pretty much a solid no touch

I'm just curious. Are you up or down for the season on football?

Some of your picks were totally disastrous. Something like 0 wins for whatever.

You did good taking ML on one of the teams and kept it up live and they all cashed, but besides that I thought you were losing your socks off.

**Renegades** · 10-05-22, 11:12 AM

Ucf qb blows and so does malzahn. Another overrated offensive mind. Running 80 plays a game doesnt mean you have a good system. He sucked at auburn and still sucks.

**DJK** · 10-05-22, 11:27 AM

Over 63.5 then. Worth the shot considering neither plays much of any defense.

That's freaking 9+ TDs.

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by DJK

Over 63.5 then. Worth the shot considering neither plays much of any defense.

That's freaking 9+ TDs.

Over 64 is the way to go.
F uck, this one could wind up in the 80's

**flakeandbake** · 10-05-22, 12:11 PM

Touch the stove and the hand turns pink boys. No heroes in this game tn.

**ScamArtist** · 10-05-22, 12:20 PM

Easy cover for UCF tonight.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 10-05-22, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by DJK

Of the 10 games between the two, Away Dog never covered from 2007 to current.

You seem to love these trends from 10+ years ago...throw them all out except for the last couple of seasons

**ScamArtist** · 10-05-22, 01:02 PM

SMU giving up 180.5 ypg on the ground facing a running qb in Plumlee.

Flip side: Bounce House is a tough place to play, though it won't be packed. Game is sold out because it was to be played last Saturday/ Sunday on parents weekend. Most of those parents have gone home and there are tons of resale listings dirt cheap as those buyers try to recoup some of that ticket money.

I believe Knights get it done tonight, win by 10

**ScamArtist** · 10-05-22, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by VeggieDog

A bunch of SMU players are sitting out the rest of the season. It's been in the news.

Only one that really sees the field is the sophomore safety. The other 3 dudes really aren't getting playing time

**Husker36** · 10-05-22, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by ScamArtist

SMU giving up 180.5 ypg on the ground facing a running qb in Plumlee.

Flip side: Bounce House is a tough place to play, though it won't be packed. Game is sold out because it was to be played last Saturday/ Sunday on parents weekend. Most of those parents have gone home and there are tons of resale listings dirt cheap as those buyers try to recoup some of that ticket money.

I believe Knights get it done tonight, win by 10

I dont see what you are seeing in UCF. SMU lost by a TD to both Maryland and TCU. Both of those teams have proven that they are legit. SMU wins tonight.

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-05-22, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by ScamArtist

SMU giving up 180.5 ypg on the ground facing a running qb in Plumlee.

Flip side: Bounce House is a tough place to play, though it won't be packed. Game is sold out because it was to be played last Saturday/ Sunday on parents weekend. Most of those parents have gone home and there are tons of resale listings dirt cheap as those buyers try to recoup some of that ticket money.

I believe Knights get it done tonight, win by 10

SMU faced TCU and Maryland though. They're both top 25 teams. The way I see it, comes down to how much stock you put into the Louisville/UCF game. Lville plays shit defense (see BCgame) with no discipline and poor tackling and they still shut down UCF.

Its like a horse race where a horse might not have great results, but he's dropping in class. SMU is dropping in class big-time after TCU and Maryland. They can score and if they lead then they can stack the line and slow down the run. Still though UCF has a solid homefield advantage and should be able to run the ball on SMU somewhat.

Final factor for me is Gus Malzahn. Shit coach and Idk how anyone only scores 14 on Louisville at home? Seriously any random MAC team would put 20+ on them. If I lose then I put too much stock in the Louisville game, but 14 vs Louisville is a shocking total. SMU also blew them out last year and has that confidence

I'm taking SMU ML/Over 51.5 (+170) MGM

Considering Mordecai Over 313.5 passing Bovada because he's went for 369, 372, and 432 in their 3 competitive games so far. Should hit if they're winning and will definitely hit it if they're losing

**flakeandbake** · 10-05-22, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

SMU faced TCU and Maryland though. They're both top 25 teams. The way I see it, comes down to how much stock you put into the Louisville/UCF game. Lville plays shit defense (see BCgame) with no discipline and poor tackling and they still shut down UCF.

Its like a horse race where a horse might not have great results, but he's dropping in class. SMU is dropping in class big-time after TCU and Maryland. They can score and if they lead then they can stack the line and slow down the run. Still though UCF has a solid homefield advantage and should be able to run the ball on SMU somewhat.

Final factor for me is Gus Malzahn. Shit coach and Idk how anyone only scores 14 on Louisville at home? Seriously any random MAC team would put 20+ on them. If I lose then I put too much stock in the Louisville game, but 14 vs Louisville is a shocking total. SMU also blew them out last year and has that confidence

I'm taking SMU ML/Over 51.5 (+170) MGM

Considering Mordecai Over 313.5 passing Bovada because he's went for 369, 372, and 432 in their 3 competitive games so far. Should hit if they're winning and will definitely hit it if they're losing

Agree I’d feel more comfortable with SMUs coach and QB. Again though, UCF feels overdue in these spots (which doesn’t really mean much). I had thought the line was getting steamed yesterday and figured to take UCF small — but now idk since I could make an argument for both sides

**Zlaniner** · 10-05-22, 02:45 PM

CFU 4 the Money !

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-05-22, 05:23 PM

I ended up with more on Mordecai Over 306.5 and 313.5 then the game itself. DK had 335 or something so these lines on Bovada just looked too good. 3 games with 369+ passing already

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

I ended up with more on Mordecai Over 306.5 and 313.5 then the game itself. DK had 335 or something so these lines on Bovada just looked too good. 3 games with 369+ passing already

FD has some tempting SGP options too.
Just logged off there.
Check it out Fred.

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 06:12 PM

Oh Jeez, I have to listen to Tiffany Green and that windbag Ingoglia all night?
Where's my mute button?

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-05-22, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

FD has some tempting SGP options too.
Just logged off there.
Check it out Fred.

Fan Duel can never locate me on my home computer. Its just too big a hassle and I'm happy with DK. Been running good PLO so now I have $1400 on Bovada too

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-05-22, 06:34 PM

Have the feeling SMU might win sort of easy like 38-21 and everyone and their brother gets burned on Over

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

Fan Duel can never locate me on my home computer. Its just too big a hassle and I'm happy with DK. Been running good PLO so now I have $1400 on Bovada too

Playing in a tourney myself at 9pm.
I took a brief break from poker, concentrating on MLB playoffs.

Back in the saddle tonight.

Best of luck bud.

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-05-22, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Playing in a tourney myself at 9pm.
I took a brief break from poker, concentrating on MLB playoffs.
Back in the saddle tonight.

Best of luck bud.

U2 man.

If fkn Corrales could catch a cold SMU would be up 21-3

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

U2 man.

If fkn Corrales could catch a cold SMU would be up 21-3

Honest to God.

And how many passes is Mordecai going to sail?
100?

**flakeandbake** · 10-05-22, 07:04 PM

These guys kiddin?

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-05-22, 07:16 PM

Now Rice drops a ball for atleast 20 yards. Mordecai is doing his thing. I have SMU ML/Over 51.5 so I need a few UCF TDs too

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 07:17 PM

10-10 now
Get me to 27 by half, I'll feel better.

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-05-22, 07:23 PM

Love that forward pitch on the jet sweep. Thats 20 more yards passing

**flakeandbake** · 10-05-22, 07:33 PM

I can’t tell if this games about to rip 2nd half, or if that’s just the script

Would have to think live over is a play at some point but can’t be too early if everyone’s thinking it

**stevenash** · 10-05-22, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

I can’t tell if this games about to rip 2nd half, or if that’s just the script

Would have to think live over is a play at some point but can’t be too early if everyone’s thinking it

2H over for me.
You would think the number would be around 30