BYU stepped up for us buddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!
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Great Job Quant. I needed that. Thanks !!Comment -
Quant, great stuff....
BigDaddy, you were correct that i didn't know what i was talking about on BYU-WM.....and for those who don't know, that is a serious comment by meComment -
Hey idiot. Who was the one who told you about wagering on streaks. I finally lost one today, after 6 wins in a row. (I wager streaks after a minimum of two wins for the streak). So I get a split today, and go 7-1 overall. I also cashed in on Arizona State's loss and Under tt in the Vegas Bowl. 9-1 so far, with just one wager remaining. I made more money in two weeks than you have in your entire life. There is no way you have ever won a much as I did because I wager so much more than you do and you lose so many times more than I do. I guarantee you that I have won more money since the start of the Bowl season than you have in your entire life. You can't even figure out why you can win numerous times in a row by wagering on a streak but only lose once.Last edited by BigdaddyQH; 12-21-18, 07:54 PM.Comment -
Thanks to all the well wishers--- this has been fun.
Hey guys-- remember-- if you guys have a differing opinion, SHARE IT!!!!!!!! I will never get pissy with someone who has info that may make me re-think a bet--------
We are all in this together....Last edited by A Quant; 12-21-18, 08:15 PM.Comment -
So now we stand at 8-2 +15.7 units.
I can't wait until tomorrow......First game kicks at noon---last game kicking at 1030 EST---- That is more than 12 hours of football.
4 games, 4 picks, 4 different posts.
Jared Birmingham Bowl. Memphis (-4) v Wake Forest
Memphis, Memphis, Memphis-- Roll Memphis.
This is not only a game we can 'cap, but it's one of those eye test games. Memphis can move the ball on anyone---They had UCF beat-- with Mackenzie Milton playing for UCF--- They average 286/game on the ground with two great backs that have totaled almost 3000 yards, and 37 touchdowns.
Oh yeah-- they also have Brady White, the transfer from ASU. What's he done? Thrown for another 3100 yards and 25 touchdowns. And here comes Wake-- with a defense ranked 112th.
Wake is wildly inconsistent-- playing EKG football, beating NC State , then losing to Pitt by 21, then beating Duke by 52. That Duke game was so much of an outlier, I can't really do anything with it.
Wake struggles stopping the run, giving up more than 190/game, and 33.3 ppg.
Memphis offense will move the ball, and score. A lot. I don't see one position group that Wake has an advantage over Memphis----
I think Memphis covers the 4 comfortable, and this one is maybe my biggest bet all bowl season.
Risking 5.5/5
Good luck guys!Comment -
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Army (-5.5) over Houston
This is going to be a body bag game. I have Army by 13 in two sets of power numbers.
Here comes Houston, and their 125th ranked defense, and they have to try and stop Army. Yeah, good luck with that.
Houston is giving up more than 200 yards rushing per game.
What makes Army lethal is how the kill you--- they control the game-- their tempo, they lead the country in TOP averaging more than 39 minutes a game-- they dictate pace, they dominate possession battles and just wear teams down. They controlled the game's pace against Oklahoma in Norman-- and probably should have won that game-- No team in the regular season held Oklahoma to less than 40 points in a game-- other than ARMY!
If you're betting Houston-- I've got news for you. Houston won't exceed 25 minutes of TOP-- they may not top 20 minutes.
What makes it worse? Ed Oliver will be sitting this one out. For Houston to win--they have to just roll out big play after big play, and I don't think they can deal with that kind of pressure.
No metrics needed here.
It is a simple equation.
Army will run for more than 350 yards, they may throw a total of 4 passes-- they will control the clock, they will score touchdowns and Houston will not be able to keep pace.
Army is another big bet.
Laying the 5.5.
Army risking 4.4/4
Good luck.Comment -
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo (-1) v. Troy
I just like Buffalo here after pouring through it for 2 days.
I said this one earlier in my thread--- 2 of Buffalo's losses were due to gimmicky offenses---Army, and Ohio, the 3rd was in the MAC Title game to NIU.
Troy's offense struggles-- especially on 3rd down. They are ranked 90 in 3rd down Down and Distance-- and they are ranked 104th in conversion at their average D&D.
They had some weird offensive games, scoring just 12 on Texas State, 16 in a loss to Liberty.
Troy does have a decent pass rush, but Buffalo has faced better--- Buffalo can throw it and run it, and may be one of the most balanced teams in bowl season. They are tough to defend.
How to sum this game...pretty easy.
Buffalo the better offensive team by a large margin, both teams are not bad defensively, but too much pressure will be on Troy to score.
I am genuinely stunned at who bought this game down to a near pick 'em.
My picks is Buffalo laying the tiny 1.
Risking 3.3/3
Good luck to you guys!Comment -
Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (ML +100) v. Hawaii
Aloha from the Big Island.
Hawaii at home.
Metrics don't do me much good here. 2 sets of power numbers and I was confused.
So, I just went back and focused on the simple things. Schedule, Defense, Who scores more consistent? Who is more balanced?
Something has to give here-- La Tech has a really good pass rush, and Hawaii went back to their run/shoot and can now throw it again all over the field.
Hawaii went on a bad late season slide, getting crushed by Nevada, Fresno State, Utah State, and BYU. La Tech wasn't that much better-- losing 3 of 4.
This will be my smallest bet of the day.
I am going with the team that is better defensively, and more balanced offensively. Nothing tricky about that, right?
Louisiana Tech on the ML, I grabbed +100.
Risking 2.5/2.5
Good luck guys!Comment -
That Birmingham Bowl looks like it could go over too. Tigers allowed 87 points in their last 2 games also Memphis did give up a ton of yards this season (170 rushing yards/game & 250.8 passing yards/game.) 72 O/U seems like a high number but the Deacons haven't seen an offense like Memphis in a few weeks.Comment -
Sort of surprised that Memphis is your big play. GL though. Wake just scares me....too unpredictable. They beat #14 NC State on the road and then beat Duke by 52. No play for me but hope it hits for you.
I see where you're coming from with Army, but I think Houston will come out desperate and play hard! They're a dog and nobody seems to be giving them a chance. I'm still on it pretty small but I just got 6.5 on Bovada. Major Applewhite also has some heat on him as they faded pretty badly and he's 0-2 in his bowl games. Army burned me last year so it could easily happen again!Comment -
SOS: Memphis 103 Wake 52, makes me wonder? Tougher sched. by far for Wake.
You asked for input, Q.
Great stuff!Comment -
Mike-- great point, and if I lose this game, I suspect SOS will play a part in that. I always recognized that the fault in my power numbers lies in trying to equate a team like Memphis to a team that plays a P65 schedule. There are only 3 real data points on Memphis, the 2 UCF games, and the Missouri game. They got motorboated by Missouri, and played UCF tough.
So-- I am placing a lot of value in those 2 UCF games (maybe wrongly) over Wake's tougher schedule.
Again, great point.Comment -
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Actually, La Tech was worse IMO. Those ones you mention who beat, ok crushed, Hawaii are all bowl teams, and three of them are bowl winners. La Tech beat Rice (2-11) and then lost to So Miss (6-5) and Western KY (3-9). Hawaii did win their last two and I prefer teams off a win in a coin flip game.
Thanks for your write-ups!Comment -
Any worry about D. Henderson not playing for Memphis?Comment -
Passing on all games today. Things appear to have reverted back to normal in these bowl games, which means that the team that wants it the most will win. FIU and BYU were perfect examples of that yesterday. I will wait until after Xmas if I pick any more games at all. I still have one pick.Comment -
A few facts about the Army-Houston game.
.....Army leads the nation in game possession at 38:51 minutes per game...Houston will be without All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver..
.....Starting QB D"Eng King will not play, out with an injury. Back-up QB will not play because he's set to transfer. Houston will rely on 3rd String QB Clayton Tune and may be also be missing 2 WR..
Army -6.5Last edited by HockeyRocks; 12-22-18, 02:16 PM.Comment -
Great game.
I took Wake but blew it on the over.
With you on Army......go grunts.Comment -
On Army as well!Comment -
Great write ups. Appreciate it.
On Memphis today as well. Back at it tomorrow.Comment -
i liked memphis too
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Memphis screwed you guys. Army made life easier for everyone. Isn't it amazing that no matter who is playing, there always seem to be 40 players being watched by the pro scouts, if you believe the announcers.Comment -
Buffalo is easily better then Troy, but they keep turning it over and their QB always looks deep instead of hitting guys underneath and moving the chains. Over is a big play for me....31 isn't bad but there should be moreComment -
Okay, lost some traction traction--went 2-2, lost 2.3 units.
To date--- 10-4 +13.4 units.
No real complaints--- Army, wow. That was impressive.
I'll be back before Wednesday.
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU GUYS! Enjoy the holiday, hope it's safe and healthy!Comment -
Solid work so far QuantComment -
So after the Favorites ML wining streak of 8 ended, things have reverted back to normal, with the dogs ML going 4-2 S/U. I made the right choice by passing on all games yesterday, as I would have gone 1-2 had I wagered on the games I was thinking abut. Here is another little math lesson for you guys. The more games you wager, the more likely you end up finishing at or near .500. Things tend to balance out in the long run. At or near .500 is a LOSER. I am still 9-1 instead of 10-3 now. If you are playing the degenerate game, and simply must wager on each and every game, here is something for you to ponder. The Dog has covered two straight, both S/U and M/L, and the MWC has now lost two straight games, both S/U and ATS. Boise State is -2 1/2 against Boston College in the next game.Comment -
Fred: Past post? You should know better.Comment -
Fred had the Over posted all week.Comment
