Sharpe College Football

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  • Sharpes
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-01-17
    • 481

    #1
    Sharpe College Football
    It's little known to the betting public but well studied by the sharps that defenses are ahead of offenses in week 1.

    Col St U 69 (1.1/1)
    Rutgers U 53 (1.1/1)
  • 2daBank
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-26-09
    • 88966

    #2
    Didn't look that way last night in Indy or okie st..
    Comment
    • CappinTerp
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-26-09
      • 9650

      #3
      Originally posted by Sharpes
      It's little known to the betting public but well studied by the sharps that defenses are ahead of offenses in week 1.

      Col St U 69 (1.1/1)
      Rutgers U 53 (1.1/1)
      I think you might want to consider,giving a little more credit to the betting public....good luck with your bets! I think Washington could put up 53+ vs Rutgers.....but it's unlikely they will.
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #4
        Originally posted by CappinTerp
        I think you might want to consider,giving a little more credit to the betting public....good luck with your bets! I think Washington could put up 53+ vs Rutgers.....but it's unlikely they will.
        I'm 3 for 3 on overs thus far. Personally I think offenses have a edge early as they get a lot more work getting in sync than defenses get on tackling these days..
        Comment
        • CappinTerp
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-26-09
          • 9650

          #5
          Originally posted by 2daBank
          I'm 3 for 3 on overs thus far. Personally I think offenses have a edge early as they get a lot more work getting in sync than defenses get on tackling these days..
          Yea banker,sometimes conventional wisdom,is not conventional.
          Comment
          • 2daBank
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-26-09
            • 88966

            #6
            Originally posted by CappinTerp
            Yea banker,sometimes conventional wisdom,is not conventional.
            While I think what op saying used to be true those days are behind us now that the concussion thing is taken seriously and teams just don't hit in practices like they used to. The only way to become better tacklers is to get to tackle! Used to be offenses took some weeks to get in sync but now it defenses that don't get the work they need in the offseason imo..

            Not saying either the 2 unders he selected are wrong, no opinion on either really. Jusy in general I don't think it any longer the case that defenses are ahead of the offense.
            Comment
            • Sharpes
              SBR Sharp
              • 09-01-17
              • 481

              #7
              2-0 (+2 Units)

              Ball State at Illinois UNDER 55 (1.1/1)
              California at North Carolina UNDER 60 (1.1/1)
              North Car St at South Carolina UNDER 53 (1.1/1)
              Comment
              • Sharpes
                SBR Sharp
                • 09-01-17
                • 481

                #8
                All plays (1.1/1)

                Troy State at Boise State UNDER 61
                Kentucky at Southern Miss UNDER 57
                Miami (OH) at Marshall UNDER 48
                Alabama at Florida State UNDER 51
                Vanderbilt at Mid Tennessee UNDER 58
                LSU at Brigham Young UNDER 48
                Comment
                • Sharpes
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 09-01-17
                  • 481

                  #9
                  Record: 8-3 (+4.7 Units)

                  Texas A&M at UCLA UNDER 61 (1.1/1)
                  West Virginia at Virginia Tech UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
                  Comment
                  • Sharpes
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 09-01-17
                    • 481

                    #10
                    Since 1998, week 1 unders have gone 336-294 on the blind for a 52% win rate and a 1.79% ROI - just enough to slightly overcome the house edge. That's the kind of initial look that draws the sharps.
                    Comment
                    • Renegades
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-12-11
                      • 5290

                      #11
                      Isn't 52.4 the break even?
                      Comment
                      • Sharpes
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-01-17
                        • 481

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Renegades
                        Isn't 52.4 the break even?
                        My bad, typo, win pct is 53.3%, just over the 52.4 breakeven. Next layer, of course, is to select which games offer an even better probabilty of success. Looking at returning players on offense and defense as well as which side the public is pounding offer further insights.
                        Comment
                        • Renegades
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-12-11
                          • 5290

                          #13
                          Gotcha. No worries. Interesting stats. Thanks for sharing
                          Comment
                          • BigDofBA
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 09-30-09
                            • 19313

                            #14
                            So you just play all unders in week 1?

                            Is your only angle for tonight that the defenses are behind in week 1 or do you like the unders for some other reason?

                            Can't argue with the results so far.
                            Comment
                            • BigDofBA
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 09-30-09
                              • 19313

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Sharpes
                              Record: 8-3 (+4.7 Units)

                              Texas A&M at UCLA UNDER 61 (1.1/1)
                              West Virginia at Virginia Tech UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
                              Loss. Loss.


                              So 8-5 +2.5 units? Not bad. I had a feeling these two were going to go over.
                              Comment
                              • Sharpes
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 09-01-17
                                • 481

                                #16
                                Record: 8-5 (+2.5u)

                                Tough to end the week with a pair of losses but overall a good start. Public was 80% on the over on both games last night.
                                Comment
                                • BigdaddyQH
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 07-13-09
                                  • 19530

                                  #17
                                  Not a bad start. I am looking at some inflated totals for this week. I see East Carolina @ West Virginia at 61 1/2. That is the same East Carolina that was held to 14 points at home by mighty James Madison. USF @ UConn is at 68. South Carolina @ Missouri up to 72.
                                  Comment
                                  • Sharpes
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 09-01-17
                                    • 481

                                    #18
                                    Newton's Law as applied to week 2 college football handicapping, "for every action, there is an equal and opposite overreaction".
                                    Comment
                                    • Sharpes
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 09-01-17
                                      • 481

                                      #19
                                      Note that conference matchups are rare in the early weeks, providing unique opportunities where the home field advantage is drastically overbet. Since 2000, away teams have gone 300-241 vs the number when playing a conference rival in the first 4 weeks. That's a 55% win rate and a 5.75% ROI on the blind. Additional filtering of this sharp angle yields the following:

                                      South Carolina +3
                                      Rice + 1.5
                                      Stanford + 5.5

                                      All plays (1.1/1)
                                      Comment
                                      • Sharpes
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 09-01-17
                                        • 481

                                        #20
                                        Two leans tonight - not official plays

                                        Ohio + 2.5
                                        Ok St U 68.5
                                        Comment
                                        • Sharpes
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 09-01-17
                                          • 481

                                          #21
                                          Adding to official plays

                                          Louisville -11 (1.1/1)
                                          Comment
                                          • Sharpes
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 09-01-17
                                            • 481

                                            #22
                                            Week: 3-1 (+1.9u)
                                            Season: 11-6 (+4.4u)
                                            Comment
                                            • Sharpes
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 09-01-17
                                              • 481

                                              #23
                                              Great Mountain West matchup tomorrow night. Despite the fact that only 25% of the bets are on the Lobos, the line has dropped from 16.5 to 14.5. That's sharp action. Locking in 2 td's plus the hook.

                                              Lobos +14.5 (1.1/1)
                                              Comment
                                              • BigdaddyQH
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 07-13-09
                                                • 19530

                                                #24
                                                13 posts. Just how old are you? You are off to a decent start.
                                                Comment
                                                • Sharpes
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 09-01-17
                                                  • 481

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                                                  Just how old are you?
                                                  Gen X
                                                  Comment
                                                  • eeezzzz
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 08-24-12
                                                    • 703

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                                                    13 posts. Just how old are you? You are off to a decent start.
                                                    You gotta hard on for this kid?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Sharpes
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 09-01-17
                                                      • 481

                                                      #27
                                                      Week: 1-0 (+1u)
                                                      Season: 12-6 (+5.4u)

                                                      Back with another play tomorrow plus a strong lean on a second opportunity.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Sharpes
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 09-01-17
                                                        • 481

                                                        #28
                                                        The Bulls face a stiffer than expected test from the suddenly relevant Illini in steamy post hurricane conditions tonight in Tampa. Public has been riding the over since the first totals were posted but we have found the value area where sharps balance the action.

                                                        Illinois at South Florida UNDER 55.5 (1.1/1)

                                                        Also have a very strong lean on the Illini +17 given the turmoil the Bulls have endured from Irma.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Sharpes
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 09-01-17
                                                          • 481

                                                          #29
                                                          Adding UTEP.

                                                          Illinois at South Florida UNDER 55.5 (1.1/1)
                                                          UTEP +23.5 (1.1/1)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Sharpes
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 09-01-17
                                                            • 481

                                                            #30
                                                            Week: 1-2 (-1.2u)
                                                            Season: 12-8 (+3.2u)

                                                            Louisiana-Lafayette +23.5 (1.1/1)
                                                            Baylor +14.5 (1.1/1)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Sharpes
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 09-01-17
                                                              • 481

                                                              #31
                                                              Boston College +13 (1.1/1)
                                                              Texas Christian UNDER 64.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              East Carolina +22.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              Brigham Young +16.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              Florida International +25 (1.1/1)
                                                              Florida UNDER 50 (1.1/1)
                                                              Clemson -3 (1.1/1)
                                                              Oregon State +21 (1.1/1)
                                                              Oklahoma UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
                                                              Kent State +14 (1.1/1)
                                                              Alabama UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
                                                              Mississippi State UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
                                                              LSU -8 (1.1/1)
                                                              Wyoming +14 (1.1/1)
                                                              Ark.-Pine Bluff 55.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              Idaho State +30 (1.1/1)
                                                              SW Texas State OVER 48 (1.1/1)
                                                              Louisiana Tech +5.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              South Alabama UNDER 50.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              Southern +35.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              Georgia State +37.5 (1.1/1)
                                                              Troy State -8 (1.1/1)
                                                              Washington UNDER 56 (1.1/1)
                                                              Comment
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