It's little known to the betting public but well studied by the sharps that defenses are ahead of offenses in week 1.
Col St U 69 (1.1/1)
Rutgers U 53 (1.1/1)
2daBank
SBR Aristocracy
01-26-09
88966
#2
Didn't look that way last night in Indy or okie st..
Comment
CappinTerp
SBR Hall of Famer
11-26-09
9650
#3
Originally posted by Sharpes
It's little known to the betting public but well studied by the sharps that defenses are ahead of offenses in week 1.
Col St U 69 (1.1/1)
Rutgers U 53 (1.1/1)
I think you might want to consider,giving a little more credit to the betting public....good luck with your bets! I think Washington could put up 53+ vs Rutgers.....but it's unlikely they will.
Comment
2daBank
SBR Aristocracy
01-26-09
88966
#4
Originally posted by CappinTerp
I think you might want to consider,giving a little more credit to the betting public....good luck with your bets! I think Washington could put up 53+ vs Rutgers.....but it's unlikely they will.
I'm 3 for 3 on overs thus far. Personally I think offenses have a edge early as they get a lot more work getting in sync than defenses get on tackling these days..
Comment
CappinTerp
SBR Hall of Famer
11-26-09
9650
#5
Originally posted by 2daBank
I'm 3 for 3 on overs thus far. Personally I think offenses have a edge early as they get a lot more work getting in sync than defenses get on tackling these days..
Yea banker,sometimes conventional wisdom,is not conventional.
Comment
2daBank
SBR Aristocracy
01-26-09
88966
#6
Originally posted by CappinTerp
Yea banker,sometimes conventional wisdom,is not conventional.
While I think what op saying used to be true those days are behind us now that the concussion thing is taken seriously and teams just don't hit in practices like they used to. The only way to become better tacklers is to get to tackle! Used to be offenses took some weeks to get in sync but now it defenses that don't get the work they need in the offseason imo..
Not saying either the 2 unders he selected are wrong, no opinion on either really. Jusy in general I don't think it any longer the case that defenses are ahead of the offense.
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#7
2-0 (+2 Units)
Ball State at Illinois UNDER 55 (1.1/1)
California at North Carolina UNDER 60 (1.1/1)
North Car St at South Carolina UNDER 53 (1.1/1)
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#8
All plays (1.1/1)
Troy State at Boise State UNDER 61
Kentucky at Southern Miss UNDER 57
Miami (OH) at Marshall UNDER 48
Alabama at Florida State UNDER 51
Vanderbilt at Mid Tennessee UNDER 58
LSU at Brigham Young UNDER 48
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#9
Record: 8-3 (+4.7 Units)
Texas A&M at UCLA UNDER 61 (1.1/1)
West Virginia at Virginia Tech UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#10
Since 1998, week 1 unders have gone 336-294 on the blind for a 52% win rate and a 1.79% ROI - just enough to slightly overcome the house edge. That's the kind of initial look that draws the sharps.
Comment
Renegades
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-11
5290
#11
Isn't 52.4 the break even?
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#12
Originally posted by Renegades
Isn't 52.4 the break even?
My bad, typo, win pct is 53.3%, just over the 52.4 breakeven. Next layer, of course, is to select which games offer an even better probabilty of success. Looking at returning players on offense and defense as well as which side the public is pounding offer further insights.
Comment
Renegades
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-11
5290
#13
Gotcha. No worries. Interesting stats. Thanks for sharing
Comment
BigDofBA
SBR Posting Legend
09-30-09
19313
#14
So you just play all unders in week 1?
Is your only angle for tonight that the defenses are behind in week 1 or do you like the unders for some other reason?
Can't argue with the results so far.
Comment
BigDofBA
SBR Posting Legend
09-30-09
19313
#15
Originally posted by Sharpes
Record: 8-3 (+4.7 Units)
Texas A&M at UCLA UNDER 61 (1.1/1)
West Virginia at Virginia Tech UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
Loss. Loss.
So 8-5 +2.5 units? Not bad. I had a feeling these two were going to go over.
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#16
Record: 8-5 (+2.5u)
Tough to end the week with a pair of losses but overall a good start. Public was 80% on the over on both games last night.
Comment
BigdaddyQH
SBR Posting Legend
07-13-09
19530
#17
Not a bad start. I am looking at some inflated totals for this week. I see East Carolina @ West Virginia at 61 1/2. That is the same East Carolina that was held to 14 points at home by mighty James Madison. USF @ UConn is at 68. South Carolina @ Missouri up to 72.
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#18
Newton's Law as applied to week 2 college football handicapping, "for every action, there is an equal and opposite overreaction".
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#19
Note that conference matchups are rare in the early weeks, providing unique opportunities where the home field advantage is drastically overbet. Since 2000, away teams have gone 300-241 vs the number when playing a conference rival in the first 4 weeks. That's a 55% win rate and a 5.75% ROI on the blind. Additional filtering of this sharp angle yields the following:
South Carolina +3
Rice + 1.5
Stanford + 5.5
All plays (1.1/1)
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#20
Two leans tonight - not official plays
Ohio + 2.5
Ok St U 68.5
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Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#21
Adding to official plays
Louisville -11 (1.1/1)
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#22
Week: 3-1 (+1.9u) Season: 11-6 (+4.4u)
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#23
Great Mountain West matchup tomorrow night. Despite the fact that only 25% of the bets are on the Lobos, the line has dropped from 16.5 to 14.5. That's sharp action. Locking in 2 td's plus the hook.
Lobos +14.5 (1.1/1)
Comment
BigdaddyQH
SBR Posting Legend
07-13-09
19530
#24
13 posts. Just how old are you? You are off to a decent start.
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#25
Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
Just how old are you?
Gen X
Comment
eeezzzz
SBR Wise Guy
08-24-12
703
#26
Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
13 posts. Just how old are you? You are off to a decent start.
You gotta hard on for this kid?
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#27
Week: 1-0 (+1u) Season: 12-6 (+5.4u)
Back with another play tomorrow plus a strong lean on a second opportunity.
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#28
The Bulls face a stiffer than expected test from the suddenly relevant Illini in steamy post hurricane conditions tonight in Tampa. Public has been riding the over since the first totals were posted but we have found the value area where sharps balance the action.
Illinois at South Florida UNDER 55.5 (1.1/1)
Also have a very strong lean on the Illini +17 given the turmoil the Bulls have endured from Irma.
Comment
Sharpes
SBR Sharp
09-01-17
481
#29
Adding UTEP.
Illinois at South Florida UNDER 55.5 (1.1/1)
UTEP +23.5 (1.1/1)
Boston College +13 (1.1/1)
Texas Christian UNDER 64.5 (1.1/1)
East Carolina +22.5 (1.1/1)
Brigham Young +16.5 (1.1/1)
Florida International +25 (1.1/1)
Florida UNDER 50 (1.1/1)
Clemson -3 (1.1/1)
Oregon State +21 (1.1/1)
Oklahoma UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
Kent State +14 (1.1/1)
Alabama UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
Mississippi State UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
LSU -8 (1.1/1)
Wyoming +14 (1.1/1)
Ark.-Pine Bluff 55.5 (1.1/1)
Idaho State +30 (1.1/1)
SW Texas State OVER 48 (1.1/1)
Louisiana Tech +5.5 (1.1/1)
South Alabama UNDER 50.5 (1.1/1)
Southern +35.5 (1.1/1)
Georgia State +37.5 (1.1/1)
Troy State -8 (1.1/1)
Washington UNDER 56 (1.1/1)