Sharpe College Football

2daBank · 09-01-17, 05:05 PM

Didn't look that way last night in Indy or okie st..

CappinTerp · 09-01-17, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Sharpes

It's little known to the betting public but well studied by the sharps that defenses are ahead of offenses in week 1.

Col St U 69 (1.1/1)
Rutgers U 53 (1.1/1)

I think you might want to consider,giving a little more credit to the betting public....good luck with your bets! I think Washington could put up 53+ vs Rutgers.....but it's unlikely they will.

2daBank · 09-01-17, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

I think you might want to consider,giving a little more credit to the betting public....good luck with your bets! I think Washington could put up 53+ vs Rutgers.....but it's unlikely they will.

I'm 3 for 3 on overs thus far. Personally I think offenses have a edge early as they get a lot more work getting in sync than defenses get on tackling these days..

CappinTerp · 09-01-17, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I'm 3 for 3 on overs thus far. Personally I think offenses have a edge early as they get a lot more work getting in sync than defenses get on tackling these days..

Yea banker,sometimes conventional wisdom,is not conventional.

2daBank · 09-01-17, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

Yea banker,sometimes conventional wisdom,is not conventional.

While I think what op saying used to be true those days are behind us now that the concussion thing is taken seriously and teams just don't hit in practices like they used to. The only way to become better tacklers is to get to tackle! Used to be offenses took some weeks to get in sync but now it defenses that don't get the work they need in the offseason imo..

Not saying either the 2 unders he selected are wrong, no opinion on either really. Jusy in general I don't think it any longer the case that defenses are ahead of the offense.

Sharpes · 09-02-17, 11:01 AM

2-0 (+2 Units)

Ball State at Illinois UNDER 55 (1.1/1)
California at North Carolina UNDER 60 (1.1/1)
North Car St at South Carolina UNDER 53 (1.1/1)

Sharpes · 09-02-17, 01:27 PM

All plays (1.1/1)

Troy State at Boise State UNDER 61
Kentucky at Southern Miss UNDER 57
Miami (OH) at Marshall UNDER 48
Alabama at Florida State UNDER 51
Vanderbilt at Mid Tennessee UNDER 58
LSU at Brigham Young UNDER 48

Sharpes · 09-03-17, 03:48 PM

Record: 8-3 (+4.7 Units)

Texas A&M at UCLA UNDER 61 (1.1/1)
West Virginia at Virginia Tech UNDER 54 (1.1/1)

Sharpes · 09-03-17, 04:00 PM

Since 1998, week 1 unders have gone 336-294 on the blind for a 52% win rate and a 1.79% ROI - just enough to slightly overcome the house edge. That's the kind of initial look that draws the sharps.

Renegades · 09-03-17, 04:18 PM

Isn't 52.4 the break even?

Sharpes · 09-03-17, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by Renegades

Isn't 52.4 the break even?

My bad, typo, win pct is 53.3%, just over the 52.4 breakeven. Next layer, of course, is to select which games offer an even better probabilty of success. Looking at returning players on offense and defense as well as which side the public is pounding offer further insights.

Renegades · 09-03-17, 05:39 PM

Gotcha. No worries. Interesting stats. Thanks for sharing

BigDofBA · 09-03-17, 05:58 PM

So you just play all unders in week 1?

Is your only angle for tonight that the defenses are behind in week 1 or do you like the unders for some other reason?

Can't argue with the results so far.

BigDofBA · 09-04-17, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by Sharpes

Record: 8-3 (+4.7 Units)

Texas A&M at UCLA UNDER 61 (1.1/1)
West Virginia at Virginia Tech UNDER 54 (1.1/1)

Loss. Loss.

So 8-5 +2.5 units? Not bad. I had a feeling these two were going to go over.

Sharpes · 09-04-17, 12:25 PM

Record: 8-5 (+2.5u)

Tough to end the week with a pair of losses but overall a good start. Public was 80% on the over on both games last night.

BigdaddyQH · 09-04-17, 01:42 PM

Not a bad start. I am looking at some inflated totals for this week. I see East Carolina @ West Virginia at 61 1/2. That is the same East Carolina that was held to 14 points at home by mighty James Madison. USF @ UConn is at 68. South Carolina @ Missouri up to 72.

Sharpes · 09-07-17, 05:20 PM

Newton's Law as applied to week 2 college football handicapping, "for every action, there is an equal and opposite overreaction".

Sharpes · 09-08-17, 05:31 PM

Note that conference matchups are rare in the early weeks, providing unique opportunities where the home field advantage is drastically overbet. Since 2000, away teams have gone 300-241 vs the number when playing a conference rival in the first 4 weeks. That's a 55% win rate and a 5.75% ROI on the blind. Additional filtering of this sharp angle yields the following:

South Carolina +3
Rice + 1.5
Stanford + 5.5

All plays (1.1/1)

Sharpes · 09-08-17, 06:54 PM

Two leans tonight - not official plays

Ohio + 2.5
Ok St U 68.5

Sharpes · 09-09-17, 10:50 AM

Adding to official plays

Louisville -11 (1.1/1)

Sharpes · 09-10-17, 11:00 AM

Week: 3-1 (+1.9u)
Season: 11-6 (+4.4u)

Sharpes · 09-13-17, 01:10 PM

Great Mountain West matchup tomorrow night. Despite the fact that only 25% of the bets are on the Lobos, the line has dropped from 16.5 to 14.5. That's sharp action. Locking in 2 td's plus the hook.

Lobos +14.5 (1.1/1)

BigdaddyQH · 09-13-17, 02:59 PM

13 posts. Just how old are you? You are off to a decent start.

Sharpes · 09-13-17, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Just how old are you?

Gen X

eeezzzz · 09-13-17, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

13 posts. Just how old are you? You are off to a decent start.

You gotta hard on for this kid?

Sharpes · 09-14-17, 10:31 PM

Week: 1-0 (+1u)
Season: 12-6 (+5.4u)

Back with another play tomorrow plus a strong lean on a second opportunity.

Sharpes · 09-15-17, 10:05 AM

The Bulls face a stiffer than expected test from the suddenly relevant Illini in steamy post hurricane conditions tonight in Tampa. Public has been riding the over since the first totals were posted but we have found the value area where sharps balance the action.

Illinois at South Florida UNDER 55.5 (1.1/1)

Also have a very strong lean on the Illini +17 given the turmoil the Bulls have endured from Irma.

Sharpes · 09-15-17, 02:11 PM

Adding UTEP.

Illinois at South Florida UNDER 55.5 (1.1/1)
UTEP +23.5 (1.1/1)

Sharpes · 09-16-17, 10:54 AM

Week: 1-2 (-1.2u)
Season: 12-8 (+3.2u)

Louisiana-Lafayette +23.5 (1.1/1)
Baylor +14.5 (1.1/1)

Sharpes · 09-16-17, 12:23 PM

Boston College +13 (1.1/1)
Texas Christian UNDER 64.5 (1.1/1)
East Carolina +22.5 (1.1/1)
Brigham Young +16.5 (1.1/1)
Florida International +25 (1.1/1)
Florida UNDER 50 (1.1/1)
Clemson -3 (1.1/1)
Oregon State +21 (1.1/1)
Oklahoma UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
Kent State +14 (1.1/1)
Alabama UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
Mississippi State UNDER 54 (1.1/1)
LSU -8 (1.1/1)
Wyoming +14 (1.1/1)
Ark.-Pine Bluff 55.5 (1.1/1)
Idaho State +30 (1.1/1)
SW Texas State OVER 48 (1.1/1)
Louisiana Tech +5.5 (1.1/1)
South Alabama UNDER 50.5 (1.1/1)
Southern +35.5 (1.1/1)
Georgia State +37.5 (1.1/1)
Troy State -8 (1.1/1)
Washington UNDER 56 (1.1/1)