Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

**On2TheNext1** · 07-23-13, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

I think a ITD will be like -130 or something like that. Matthysse is on a tear right now and a lot of people are expecting that.

I haven't really talked about the Mayweather/Alvarez fight.... but this is a fight where Canelo's only clear advantage is his age, size and fans in the arena.
I'll probalby start looking into it more next month, but right now..... Mayweather by decision is what I'd go for. Alvarez isn't nearly as active, not the great stalker he's made out to be and gasses way to quick for someone of his age

Yeah, Mayweather by 12rd dec -160 was what I was looking at.

I'm no boxing aficionado, but Canelo looked meh against Austin Trout. I thought Trout outboxed him, obviously some homer judging as Malinaggi and the other announcers pointed out on at least one of the cards (I'm assuming that's unlikely to happen in Vegas).

I've heard/read that closer we get to fight time the "Mexican/public" money might move the line and possibly get a better price on Mayweather... any truth to that school of thought?

**hougigo** · 07-23-13, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by On2TheNext1

Yeah, Mayweather by 12rd dec -160 was what I was looking at.

I'm no boxing aficionado, but Canelo looked meh against Austin Trout. I thought Trout outboxed him, obviously some homer judging as Malinaggi and the other announcers pointed out on at least one of the cards (I'm assuming that's unlikely to happen in Vegas).

I've heard/read that closer we get to fight time the "Mexican/public" money might move the line and possibly get a better price on Mayweather... any truth to that school of thought?

Yea, I think that'll happen. I'm not going to touch the line until fight week because that's when the line, IMO, will really start to move because everyone will be throwing down on Canelo.
My only concern here is Canelo is seen as the "future" and boxing is a shady sport. Oscar has had it out for Floyd since he lost to him and we all know crowds can sometimes influence the judges. I want to put down on Mayweather, but I'm not all that confident in this sport

**hougigo** · 07-24-13, 12:16 PM

On another note, I hoping people will drive the Pac/Rios line down even lower as fight week approaches. Pac was like a -600 opening and is down to -465.
I can only see it go lower as they try to play off of Pac's recent KO loss and Rios's banger mentality

Pac looked great before going to sleep and Rios looked bad in his Alvarado matches and horrible in his "win" against Abril.
This'll be a massacre and I feel bad for Rios

**hougigo** · 07-25-13, 04:10 PM

Looking at the fights tomorrow and Sat, and the KO kings on Saturday looks to actually produce some KO wins

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 12:07 PM

Estrada opened up at -180 and quickly jumped up to -350....damn...in like 15 minutes.
IMO, Estrada too strong and relentless for Melindo. Melindo is fast, got good countering ability and infighting, but his resume is lacking along with him getting tagged too much. Somebody like Estrada would mess him up.
Tamara and Sera were hitting Melindo more than he needed.

Hopefully it goes down again.....hopefully the Pinos visiting Macau will jump on Melindo

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 12:10 PM

Also, I wanted to take the Berto/Karass O/U... too tricky for me.
Berto could win by KO due to his superior hand speed/combination and Karass having no defense, but he gasses and can't infight.
Karass is durable and relentless and could close the distance and make Berto uncomfortable and drag it 12 rounds.

If anything this goes under, but i'm not entirely sure on this one.
I like Thurman/Chaves to go under. Both men with big power, but Thurman with the better competition. Also, not entirely impressed by Chaves. If Thurman can pump it out against him, he could down Chaves who's smaller and has shorter arms.

IMO, everyone on the KO kings card will be gunning for the KO. I think it's a 100k bonus

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 12:41 PM

ANDY RUIZ ONLY -170!
I'm jumping on this one. Ruiz may be fat and tubby, but his hand speed and skill is deceiving. He probalby has the fastest hands at HW and puts together some good combos. Joe Hanks is alright, but he lacks any notable competition aside from Ashanti Jordan and he himself was just a GBP touted prospect.

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

ANDY RUIZ ONLY -170!
I'm jumping on this one. Ruiz may be fat and tubby, but his hand speed and skill is deceiving. He probalby has the fastest hands at HW and puts together some good combos. Joe Hanks is alright, but he lacks any notable competition aside from Ashanti Jordan and he himself was just a GBP touted prospect.

Honestly, I think this line is so off just like the Kovalev line

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Honestly, I think this line is so off just like the Kovalev line

Looks like I was right.... I waited to long and got it at -215, but it's climbing now

MD · 07-26-13, 12:57 PM

Yeah, I've been maxing it. Should be closer to -300 I think.

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by MD

Yeah, I've been maxing it. Should be closer to -300 I think.

It's around there right now I think.
I want to put down on Estrada.... slept too damn late and missed it while it was at -180.
Hoping it'll come down a little

**Fistula** · 07-26-13, 07:09 PM

I like Estrada as well, but the other big fights this weekend aren't too appealing.

Heads up on the Miguel Gonzalez-Josenilson Dos Santos fight. The bookies have it as close to a pick-em, but I think they've mispriced it and Gonzalez should be a shorter favourite. This is the classic case of bookies overrating a little-known fighter based on a glossy record. Dos Santos is a crude brawler who has almost only fought in his native boxing-thin Brazil. The only time he stepped up he lost to a young Diego Magdelano. Gonzalez is a southpaw, a decent defender, and the more well-rounded technical boxer, and he's fought much better opposition, including a loss to Mike Dallas and a win over Miguel Acosta in his last two fights. He should win easily and I'm on him for 4 units.

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

I like Estrada as well, but the other big fights this weekend aren't too appealing.

Heads up on the Miguel Gonzalez-Josenilson Dos Santos fight. The bookies have it as close to a pick-em, but I think they've mispriced it and Gonzalez should be a shorter favourite. This is the classic case of bookies overrating a little-known fighter based on a glossy record. Dos Santos is a crude brawler who has almost only fought in his native boxing-thin Brazil. The only time he stepped up he lost to a young Diego Magdelano. Gonzalez is a southpaw, a decent defender, and the more well-rounded technical boxer, and he's fought much better opposition, including Mike Dallas and a competitive loss to Miguel Acosta in his last two fights. He should win easily and I'm on him for 4 units.

I like him too. He has the better experience (both men lack notable wins) and that win over Acosta was good.... but that was just the case of beating an old man who gassed.
Gonzalez should be the favorite though.
Like you said, Santos only fought outside Brazil like once. He has fast hands but if you crowd him and get in his face, he won't have room to do anything... at least form what I saw in the fights that I watched.
I just wish I got Gonzo at + odds last night when it opened

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 07:52 PM

I feel like making a run at Servania vs konosuke under tomorrow.
Servania is really coming along. He has a low KO ratio, but he's been working on his combinations, body punches and becoming a better fighter overall. Konosuke moving up and has been KO'd trice already.
I think it's worse a look IMO... good way for him to burst onto the scene.

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 08:42 PM

Along with Gonzalez for FNF, I'm going to take Burgos decision over Yakubu.
Yakubu a tough SOB. His one KO loss to burns was incredibly premature, the ref stopped it at the first chance he could.
Yakubu can take a punch, relentless and can close the distance. Burgos just has a better skill set and his defense is better than Yakubu. Burgos can deal with pressure fighters quite well.
Yakubu also took Ji Hoon Kim's punches in his loss and made it to the bell. IMO Kim hit's harder and Burgos will just outbox Yakubu to a decision.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's KO'd... but I think there's a better chance at a decision for Burgos here. He's also stepping up in weight because Yakubu couldn't make the 130 limit

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

I like him too. He has the better experience (both men lack notable wins) and that win over Acosta was good.... but that was just the case of beating an old man who gassed.
Gonzalez should be the favorite though.
Like you said, Santos only fought outside Brazil like once. He has fast hands but if you crowd him and get in his face, he won't have room to do anything... at least form what I saw in the fights that I watched.
I just wish I got Gonzo at + odds last night when it opened

Santos is gone right now... he's a huge JLW.
That was a weird KO. Santos just straight ran away, took a knee and Gonzalez runs into him....
I was kind of right about the crowding. Gonzalez was in his face all night at the behemoth couldn't do anything.
The heat must've killed both of them though

**Fistula** · 07-26-13, 08:58 PM

Yep, you won't get much better bets than that

Good call about Dos Santos's lack of defence when he's crowded. It was an easy fight for Gonzalez on the inside.

I've actually got Burgos by KO, though not big. I know Burgos isn't a puncher, but this is a mismatch and Burgos loves to go to the body, so I think there's a better chance than not that he'll wear down Amidu and stop him.

Sure, the under on the Servania fight is worth a small play. I don't know anything about his Japanese opponent, but I see he's not only been stopped, but he's been stopped by 115 lb'ers.

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

Yep, you won't get much better bets than that

Good call about Dos Santos's lack of defence when he's crowded. It was an easy fight for Gonzalez on the inside.

I've actually got Burgos by KO, though not big. I know Burgos isn't a puncher, but this is a mismatch and Burgos loves to go to the body, so I think there's a better chance than not that he'll wear down Amidu and stop him.

Sure, the under on the Servania fight is worth a small play. I don't know anything about his Japanese opponent, but I see he's not only been stopped, but he's been stopped by 115 lb'ers.

Yea, a KO wouldn't surprise me, but there's a good chance he'll survive. Also the heat might slow down both men tonight.... hot as hell right now.

As for Servania... it's a coin flip for me. 2 fights i seen and his defence looked less than stellar. Servania doesn't look like a great and poerful puncher, but he's been improving very nicely

**Fistula** · 07-26-13, 10:14 PM

Not quite the robbery the Martinez fight was but I thought Burgos won 116-112, sorry you lost that one. Burgos looked a bit flat, but he controlled the early rounds, and gutted out the last two. I obviously underestimated Amidu though, good fight.

**hougigo** · 07-26-13, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

Not quite the robbery the Martinez fight was but I thought Burgos won 116-112, sorry you lost that one. Burgos looked a bit flat, but he controlled the early rounds, and gutted out the last two. I obviously underestimated Amidu though, good fight.

Dang... Should have just ent the safe ay and took the fight going the distance. Oh ell... stupid VV button broken

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 02:21 AM

Don't know if I posted here, but I was on Servania under when it was +120... around -125 now though...-_-
Servannia in really good form lately. He's been in development for a while now and finally starting to utilize his tools. Even though he only has 8 KO's, 2 of his last 3 ended by KO and he's looking better. His body punching is better, uppercuts, when landing cleanly are devastating and he's one of the best fundamental boxers the PI has.... the opposite of Pac.
Only issue here is his stamina.
As for his opponent, he's not world class, but an alright domestic fighter from Japan. he's moving up from 118 and has been KO'd by smaller men. The one I saw from Nabou happened when he got caught and couldn't recover. Konuske isn't hard to hit and a smart Servania can take him over if he fights smartly, IMO.
There's a good chance Servania ends it before the final bell IMO.
Also, if Servania can KO him on this big event, he might get the attention he needs.
Next big product of ALA and hopefully next champ.

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

I feel like making a run at Servania vs konosuke under tomorrow.
Servania is really coming along. He has a low KO ratio, but he's been working on his combinations, body punches and becoming a better fighter overall. Konosuke moving up and has been KO'd trice already.
I think it's worse a look IMO... good way for him to burst onto the scene.

Originally posted by hougigo

Don't know if I posted here, but I was on Servania under when it was +120... around -125 now though...-_-
Servannia in really good form lately. He's been in development for a while now and finally starting to utilize his tools. Even though he only has 8 KO's, 2 of his last 3 ended by KO and he's looking better. His body punching is better, uppercuts, when landing cleanly are devastating and he's one of the best fundamental boxers the PI has.... the opposite of Pac.
Only issue here is his stamina.
As for his opponent, he's not world class, but an alright domestic fighter from Japan. he's moving up from 118 and has been KO'd by smaller men. The one I saw from Nabou happened when he got caught and couldn't recover. Konuske isn't hard to hit and a smart Servania can take him over if he fights smartly, IMO.
There's a good chance Servania ends it before the final bell IMO.
Also, if Servania can KO him on this big event, he might get the attention he needs.
Next big product of ALA and hopefully next champ.

NVM, I did post about it... but here's a little longer write up.
Like I said, this is kind of a coin flip to me... but I like the under better.
I liked it a lot when it was + odds.

**Fistula** · 07-27-13, 02:43 AM

Where are you playing the Servania fight? Neither Pinnacle or Bet365 is offering it...

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 03:08 AM

Originally posted by Fistula

Where are you playing the Servania fight? Neither Pinnacle or Bet365 is offering it...

I'm use 5d with the occasional heritage.... but mostly 5d.
They usually have the bes tselection

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 06:12 AM

Fight ended in the 9th round, so the under hits.
No KO, fight stopped on cuts. Amazing fight though. Both fighters knocked down twice. It was a really good fight and if you took the under, good thing these doctors don't know anything about cuts... wasn't bad enough to stop

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Fight ended in the 9th round, so the under hits.
No KO, fight stopped on cuts. Amazing fight though. Both fighters knocked down twice. It was a really good fight and if you took the under, good thing these doctors don't know anything about cuts... wasn't bad enough to stop

I WILL BE SO MAD IF RUIZ AND JOHNSON WIN TONIGHT!
Freaking wanted to take Gonzalez SU instead of the Burgos prop... but I got greed.... as usual.

Butthurt aside, i hope they don't... I have them both in an open parlay

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 07:23 AM

Ruiz wins by 4th round KO.
Gah, wish I got him at -170, but -215 is better than what he shot up to 10 minutes after that.

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by MD

Yeah, I've been maxing it. Should be closer to -300 I think.

Early Drinks today my friend. Hope you made off like a bandit

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 07:56 AM

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 11:24 AM

Estrada in a winner. I heard there were suspect cards

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 07-27-13, 11:52 AM

Small on a Gradovich/Burgos/Aydin/Dirrell/Rubio parlay. Got a great price and should hit. Most of my parlays do.

Huge on a Lawler/Mighty Mouse/MacDonald parlay! Hope everyone has a great night!

**NunyaBidness** · 07-27-13, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Estrada in a winner. I heard there were suspect cards

Just a moment...

http://www.fightnews.com/Boxing/fists-of-gold-ii-undercard-results-from-macau-215662#more-215662

MD · 07-27-13, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Early Drinks today my friend. Hope you made off like a bandit

I sure did, biggest boxing bet of the week for me. Low limits made it hard to get much down on though.

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

Small on a Gradovich/Burgos/Aydin/Dirrell/Rubio parlay. Got a great price and should hit. Most of my parlays do.

Huge on a Lawler/Mighty Mouse/MacDonald parlay! Hope everyone has a great night!

Only one im worked about there is aydin. Very limited fighter. I dont remever much about herrera

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 06:27 PM

I can't write in detail... But I got Omar by ko. The jap on paper looks like a durable guy, but I think Omar will use his offensive weapons and storm his opponent.
the jap offers promlems, a southpaw who's tested and has the ability to really test Omar's grit. I like the offensive storm to clear out his opponent and take him out in the mid rounds.
im going small on Thurman/Chavez under. Both men have ko power and the opening rounds will be fireworks. I think Chavez will taste canvas and get koed in the mid to late round